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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 21 2012 21:55 Palmar wrote:
your claim was perfectly believable, doesn't necessarily make you town, but it helps.
didn't toad claim it after you claimed mason? Or did he do it beforeþ
After by the looks of things:
On May 19 2012 03:18 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 03:04 marvellosity wrote:Alright I've talked it over. I am mason and I chose the random townie option. On May 19 2012 01:21 marvellosity wrote:
you like to talk huh zel? This is not a breadcrumb but this was me taking a stab at what I believed zelblade had chosen given he said he was VT. If the thread thinks it is correct I will tell you who I got, for the mo I'm gonna exercise and have dinner. hey there. I picked mason and I got VT, just so you guys know. Not that it tells anything about his alignment but I believe his claim.
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On May 21 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote:
Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway.
well people said "we're lynching into one of the three" and all three of your were a topic. You were the least likely but people talked about you as well.
Remember what I said about "come back to me when you think 2 of them are town and we're going to lynch the last one remaining or if you figure out one of them has to be mafia" ?
That's the reason for the VT claim AFTER your mason claim. As Qatol said it shut up people talking about you and while I agree you weren't under heavy suspicion you were under suspicion as well. That way the "it's either Risk / marv / sent" thing turned into "it's either Risk or sent".
Yeah I was wrong on sent but I at least cleared you for the day.
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i think that makes toad and barundar viable rolecop targets. Of course a confirming rolecop(on marv, for example) would be useful. IMO any politician should be insta lynched.
also I got ninja'd because I am writting everything on phone :p
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On May 21 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote:
Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway.
I agree it is more of a null tell than anything. Considering that sandroba already claimed before the end of the draft phase that he himself was going to pick mason, its highly possible that a scum toad weighed in that sandroba was more likely than not going to confirm your claim since he had no reason to lie about his pick and thus decided to buy some cred off the situation.
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On May 21 2012 22:17 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2012 21:44 marvellosity wrote:On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote:
Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway. I agree it is more of a null tell than anything. Considering that sandroba already claimed before the end of the draft phase that he himself was going to pick mason, its highly possible that a scum toad weighed in that sandroba was more likely than not going to confirm your claim since he had no reason to lie about his pick and thus decided to buy some cred off the situation.
Do you think I should have not claimed the VT? I think it gave marv's claim credibility and was the reason it went to "risk or sent" rather than "risk, sent or marv".
So just for the sake of it: Just take the VT for granted, take the town alignment for granted and take the "I picked mason" for granted as well. Do you think it's bad for town if I claim in that situation?
I'd say it helped a lot yesterday.
You yourself say in the case of me being mafia I am a guy who wants to get cred, so you agree that it was good after all?
Why think about a good thing (your words) and come up with some explanation that I did that good thing because I was forced to instead of doing something mafia-oriented.
Read my statement again. Does that sound like a planned thing? Or does that sound like a "nice, I can confirm that" burst? Check the timestamps. Do you really think I would instantly post something like that without a second of a thought as mafia?
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 19 2012 17:55 Barundar wrote:
It actually makes me feel better about you, I wouldn't expect a mafia team with an experienced player on it to make a play like that and allow Sentinel to afk while town eventually figures him out. Marv was never really suspected because he actually took part in the discussion and seemed to want to figure things out, risk.nuke did as well eventually.
I'm not clearing sandroba though, he suggested we solved the situation with role checks and no lynch, went on to suggest a marv scenario and in the end traitor scenario.
Toad is interesting, he has been focusing a lot on how people aren't listening, I'm starting to fear he might be talking unclear because he has the wrong motivation. Gone to a null read for me.
Both can wait though, I'm fairly certain I know where I'll vote tomorrow.
Care to elaborate?
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On May 21 2012 14:37 Qatol wrote:
If the 4th member is a Janitor, how do they get around marvellosity's 50/50 chance of picking the role?
Mmm, forgot to consider that point. I guess this kind of speculation is just that unless we do some mass roleclaim / get more role confirmations. So I'll put that aside, for I guess its only 1 of many possible scum team role picks (I still think they chose with some idea of team synergy and the 2KP roles indicate the gist of their theme. Janitor was the first thought to pop up and I forgot to incorporate hindsight.)
Where does marvellosity's townie's claim that the politician role was taken in front of him (and the fact that nobody stepped up and claimed getting it, which is why we think it's in SK hands - mafia would have saved Sentinel with it) fit in?
Hmm. It's weird because I think I hold a different train of thought from some people in how the SK would play - I'm under the impression that SK want mafia members alive and will initially play pro-mafia because it gives him scapegoats to draw suspicion away from him and also aids in speeding up the game. However since the politician has not been claimed by town and is therefore in anti-town hands, it would make sense that perhaps PaqMan voted risk (up to 8, hoping that the SK would swing the vote to tie 9-9 (your vote count is off Qatol, I was confused at how we lynched with 9. You left out talismania).
I would agree that Barundar's comment on wanting to say less is indeed suspicious, because the first instinct I had when people started throwing out my name was to clear it. But then wouldn't scum want to do that? Or SK? So I'm confused. But that might be the intended effect of that play. We see that early on he does push the Mattchew could be scum idea, as well as the general theme of tying up roles / rolepicks, which does play into the SK motif.
Actually I now also want to discuss how the SK is probably playing to get an idea of what to look for. I'm thinking making people waste rolepicks on the denial plan as well as role powers to obsess on stopping cpr or whatever fits the bill. No doubt SK will act in the interests of keeping the last mafia alive for the help in KP, but wouldn't he have started doing that with the day-vig shot? That's what I would do, let mafia and town kill each other, helping the weaker side.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 22 2012 01:48 slOosh wrote:
Actually I now also want to discuss how the SK is probably playing to get an idea of what to look for. I'm thinking making people waste rolepicks on the denial plan as well as role powers to obsess on stopping cpr or whatever fits the bill. No doubt SK will act in the interests of keeping the last mafia alive for the help in KP, but wouldn't he have started doing that with the day-vig shot? That's what I would do, let mafia and town kill each other, helping the weaker side.
Sorry, what do you mean by the bolded?
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
EBWOP: ok, I get it, I'm a dunce. The Sentinel lynch came after the day-vig shot obviously.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
To answer that bit slOosh - SK may have believed risk was the scum. The vote was close after all.
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True, true. I'm still of thought that Palmar is the last scum, as from the list of risk voters he is the least towniest.
As for the 1 missing KP, if people aren't notified of saves then it is likely that mafia shot SK and they are in understanding that they need each other to win. Next day we need a majority lynch by clear margin lest we run into this "politician swapped my vote" shenanigans.
What are people's thoughts on the mass roleclaim at day? I'm not sure because people expressed reservations but it may just have been for the night time and not the plan in itself. Pros are we might catch people with contradictions and it puts immense pressure on the anti town players, but cons are if they survive then they have a clearer idea of how to shoot (maybe?).
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Are people informed if they are saved (by witch or doctor)?
People are informed if they were shot and protected by witch or doctor. I wasn't sure if they were informed or not but I asked an outside player and they told me they were so I recently just informed the person they were shot.
Please get all actions into me, Night ends in 7 hours and 15 minutes.
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On May 22 2012 02:23 slOosh wrote:
True, true. I'm still of thought that Palmar is the last scum, as from the list of risk voters he is the least towniest.
As for the 1 missing KP, if people aren't notified of saves then it is likely that mafia shot SK and they are in understanding that they need each other to win. Next day we need a majority lynch by clear margin lest we run into this "politician swapped my vote" shenanigans.
What are people's thoughts on the mass roleclaim at day? I'm not sure because people expressed reservations but it may just have been for the night time and not the plan in itself. Pros are we might catch people with contradictions and it puts immense pressure on the anti town players, but cons are if they survive then they have a clearer idea of how to shoot (maybe?).
I just don't see the point of the massclaim at all unless we got a 2nd sent... clearly at this point mafia has to know that a lie about the role will end up devastating.
Therefore they could just tell the truth about their role, as sent could have and nobody can tell if it's a townie who's tried to deny a mafia role or if it's really just a mafia.
Picture sent claiming Joat who tried to get the KP-role out of the way that can still just use the other actions to be pro-town.
He would not have lied and I doubt he would have gotten lynched that way because it makes sense from a town point of view as well.
So imo we still don't get a thing from a mass roleclaim while mafia gets complete information about our roles and where to shoot if they don't think the good looking people are not worth a shot for whatever reason.
So what's the point of the massclaim...
We might end up finding the politician lying but most people think that it's the SK because mafia politician would have caused a NL or a risk lynch yesterday but with all the information we already bursted out he's completly fine claiming VT who went for JOAT / vig / Mason as well so again I don't see the point in claiming.
And for those of you thinking "stop giving mafia / SK advices". If I am smart enough to figure this out mafia and/ or SK are surely smart enough as well and talked about this kind of thing at some point in their rc / QT / whatever.
I don't want us to give away all we've got (role information) because that's only useful for mafia so that's why I am talking about it.
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I guess I was just frustrated that I put a ton of effort into reading and re-reading yesterday before coming to the conclusion Palmar is town (which I still think for those who cares). My comment about who I was going to vote "tomorrow" was obviously PaqMan, before the action mess that apparantly happened. My top suspect for last scum is either sandroba or Hiro Protagonist, specially Hiro because he barely even considered the case against sentinel, but now I'm the one throwing names around without any backup.
My best guess for SK is Toad at this point with his self focus as well as mason claim as far as I remember after sandroba claimed vanilla and marv claimed mason, but I have no idea if that fits with the politician vanilla claim.
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Sent agreed to pick janitor and then picked something else. No toad he could not had claimed joat and walked away from it.
Roleclaiming: Yes the mafia can tell the truth which is what I always hoped for. With my ladder idea the roleclaim was never designed to create a Sent situation. It was designed to truthfully determine who picked what role and then we will to determine if someones claim and and actions are suspicious from a town perspective. And outing the last blues is hardly dangerous, we already have an outed vigilante, a jailer (who the medic should bloody well protect tonight, no wifom. Do it!), two confirmed masons if marv have the brains to claim before one of them dies.
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Barundar why didn't you post that conclusion on palmar when you did it. And I'm ordering you to post it now or im writing of everything you said as bullshit.
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On May 22 2012 03:22 risk.nuke wrote:
Barundar why didn't you post that conclusion on palmar when you did it. And I'm ordering you to post it now or im writing of everything you said as bullshit.
you have another shot right?
barundar seems like a good target
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On May 22 2012 03:27 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2012 03:22 risk.nuke wrote:
Barundar why didn't you post that conclusion on palmar when you did it. And I'm ordering you to post it now or im writing of everything you said as bullshit. you have another shot right? barundar seems like a good target
I got too many good targets and too few bullets.
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On May 22 2012 03:18 risk.nuke wrote:
Sent agreed to pick janitor and then picked something else. No toad he could not had claimed joat and walked away from it.
Roleclaiming: Yes the mafia can tell the truth which is what I always hoped for. With my ladder idea the roleclaim was never designed to create a Sent situation. It was designed to truthfully determine who picked what role and then we will to determine if someones claim and and actions are suspicious from a town perspective. And outing the last blues is hardly dangerous, we already have an outed vigilante, a jailer (who the medic should bloody well protect tonight, no wifom. Do it!), two confirmed masons if marv have the brains to claim before one of them dies.
I am obviously talking about a scenario in which he would not have lied, as mentioned when talking about "they could have just told the truth". Thought it's selfexplaining that "telling the truth" = not lying for me....
If he would not have claimed VT who tried to pick janitor but instead from the very beginning shut his mouth and only claimed JOAT once he had to he WOULD have been perfectly fine.
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On May 22 2012 03:39 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2012 03:18 risk.nuke wrote:
Sent agreed to pick janitor and then picked something else. No toad he could not had claimed joat and walked away from it.
Roleclaiming: Yes the mafia can tell the truth which is what I always hoped for. With my ladder idea the roleclaim was never designed to create a Sent situation. It was designed to truthfully determine who picked what role and then we will to determine if someones claim and and actions are suspicious from a town perspective. And outing the last blues is hardly dangerous, we already have an outed vigilante, a jailer (who the medic should bloody well protect tonight, no wifom. Do it!), two confirmed masons if marv have the brains to claim before one of them dies. I am obviously talking about a scenario in which he would not have lied, as mentioned when talking about "they could have just told the truth". Thought it's selfexplaining that "telling the truth" = not lying for me.... If he would not have claimed VT who tried to pick janitor but instead from the very beginning shut his mouth and only claimed JOAT once he had to he WOULD have been perfectly fine.
Unless of course you are talking about the "pregame" stuff and the plan. You and marv agreed to pick Janitor as well and didn't end up doing it. So that's apparently not a reason to lynch someone unless you & marv want to be lynched as well :p
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EPT
