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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Look at all my posts that I wrote during this past night (including this one). Take the first letter in each post and read in chronological order.
The only explanation so far I've seen for why RoL is still alive is that GM lied about his hit (not likely) or that GM was roleblocked. Obviously GM being roleblocked makes a ton of sense, except Chezinu claimed to be roleblocked. I don't see the reason for Chezinu to lie about being roleblocked, so it does not make sense that Chezinu is mafia.
I didn't think RoL was mafia cause he was active day 2 (after he promised he would be), but nothing adds up still. That said, I'm relatively certain that bumatlarge and GGQ are both innocent based on analysis. I do not think kitaman is mafia either.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Current Reads:
Probable scum team:
Foolishness- Not relevant in either the day one or day two lynch. Brings up a single case, but doesn't push it at all.
BC- Bad reasoning for the vig shot. Nearly all of his discission has been based on his vig shot, rather than talking about who he suspects as scum.
prplhz- See previous post.
L- Seems to be discussing a lot of things that aren't very relevant distracting town. Hasn't given us any solid analysis.
If not in the top four, the remaining are likely here (I know this is practically the rest of the town but activity has been really awful)
Liquid`Sheth
syllo
Mr.Wiggles
GGQ
RoL
Chezinu
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High five for Team Clever foolishness.
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I agree with what Foolishness just said.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On December 28 2011 14:03 bumatlarge wrote:
High five for Team Clever foolishness.
##Fistpound: bumatlarge
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United States2186 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.principalspage.com/theblog/wp-content/uploads//2008/02/tie.jpg) Day 3
Responsibility means wearing a tie, right?
GGQ was choked with his own necktie.
BloodyC0bbler had a tie stuffed down his throat.
chaoser had his tie tied to the back of a car and was run through town.
Mr. Wiggles was shot in the face.
Foolishness died from lack of sleep while hallucinating French poetry.
wherebugsgo was defenestrated.
Day 3 is ends at Thu Dec 29 05:00 GMT (+00:00). With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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I claim wherebugsgo.
GOD THAT FELT GOOD
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I say we lynch RebirthOfLeGenD or maybe kitaman27 today.
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United States2186 Posts
Okay I will replace at whim today if you are inactive. You are warned.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 28 2011 14:10 prplhz wrote:
I claim wherebugsgo.
GOD THAT FELT GOOD
err sorries.
Bedtime. Will post tomorrow.
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3 scum left, so we need all townies on one wagon, so if it's a mislynch we lose? Or wait everyone is a vig :D
2. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. kitaman27
5. syllogism
8. Liquid`Sheth
10. L
13. Chezinu
15. bumatlarge
19. prplhz
I'll believe prphlz because WBG ended up being scum and was hounding him. L I think might be a pretty good lynch, foolishness shot him, and because all townies are vigis, roleblocking is probably an issue. Bat sense tell me this makes L scum. People need to not shoot people so much 
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We absolutely need to lynch a mafia member today or we're finished. We also can't have anyone not on board during this lynch, because we need 5 people to secure a majority, and there are only five townspeople in the game.
Here are the people left alive:
2. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. kitaman27
5. syllogism
8. Liquid`Sheth
10. L
13. Chezinu
15. bumatlarge
19. prplhz
Out of these 8, we only have 5 townies and 3 mafia left. When picking a target, even randomly, there's a 40% chance or so that you hit mafia.
People are inactive, so we need to get the vote train, or at least a solid discussion train, out of the station asap.
RoL is by far the best candidate for a lynch today.
Here is his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384&user=41447
The second day is the real kicker. RoL pushes for a lynch on BC, then crumbs that he's a veteran because his absurd claim to being shot is proven to be impossible without a mafia medic protecting him, or chez lying about being roleblocked. RoL, however, jumped on the "I'm confirmed innocent due to GM dying" idea almost immediately, though, without attempting to understand how or why he didn't die.
Put simply, either he or Chez is mafia.
But we don't even need to check that out, because RoL has admitted that he's a liar here:
On December 27 2011 15:46 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
LSB didn't hit me, Gmarshal did. They could feasibly have different roles, GM never said to the contrary.
Here RoL doesn't say that he might have been shot, but that he was hit. If that's the case, then he was protected and RoL, contrary to his statement earlier:
On December 23 2011 14:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I never received any notification.
Wouldn't have known one way or another if he was indeed shot. But if the shots don't add up, RoL needs to explain it away. Lets see how he does that:
On December 26 2011 15:36 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Why did it take so long, and that is your only reason for shooting him? The mafia would either have to not RB anyone, RB people they are killing if GM was scum and wanted to do that or he would be counterclaimed instantly and die. You aren't stupid, how long could he keep an "I got RBed" charade up? Not long if at all. Even if the mafia did the RB + hit on people I doubt Veterans are effected in this set up because I don't think Ver has ever done that, and a medic could still save a target they RB + hit.
Would a RB negate Veteran status if veterans hypothetically existed in this set up?
You had to have another reason to hit GM, and for what reason could you only hit GM?
He softclaims Veteran and surmises that there might be medics in-game. Not a single person who has claimed has indicated that a hit was blocked on them, or that they had been shot.
Then we have this:
On December 28 2011 09:34 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2011 06:13 Foolishness wrote:
The other day I thought that BC was red, but his claim makes a lot of sense.
Why RoL is still alive is the biggest problem at the moment. If GM breadcrumbed his real target (which most people seem to think he didn't) I haven't been able to figure out the real target.
Pretend that you are RoL and you are mafia. You got shot last night but you survived due to whatever reason (medic, veteran, etc). What would you say in the thread? You are highly suspicious cause you were inactive day 1, so claiming that you took a hit isn't going to do anything for you since it will just make the town lynch you anyways. But if you claim that nothing happened to you during the night, suddenly you might be saved since everyone is now distracted with what really happened during the night. And perhaps GM's suspicions of you were just a farce to hide his real shot.
We should still kill bugs at some point though. I guess we will know tomorrow, won't we?
Which is basically a softclaim that RoL is going to prove his role using a night action. Five hits in. The one mafia death is already claimed. Either RoL shot someone over the night and they were a townie, or the claimant lied.
Basically every post on the second page of RoL's 2 page long filter implicates him as a mafia member.
Unless someone has a near-perfect case on someone else, I'm keeping my vote here:
##Vote:RebirthOfLeGenD
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On December 28 2011 14:35 bumatlarge wrote:3 scum left, so we need all townies on one wagon, so if it's a mislynch we lose? Or wait everyone is a vig :D 2. RebirthOfLeGenD 4. kitaman27 5. syllogism 8. Liquid`Sheth 10. L 13. Chezinu 15. bumatlarge 19. prplhz I'll believe prphlz because WBG ended up being scum and was hounding him. L I think might be a pretty good lynch, foolishness shot him, and because all townies are vigis, roleblocking is probably an issue. Bat sense tell me this makes L scum. People need to not shoot people so much
Wait, what? Who did what to me now?
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United States2095 Posts
I'll be re-reading and filering whats going on in the morning or I'll be replaced. Going to the doctor again in the afternoon I believe and again sorry for my inactivity. I'll give my reads on who is scum and who I'll be voting for and such 2morro morning. Cya then.
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Okay we can't go around splitting votes today, there are 3 scum out of 8 remaining players. This also means that we're at LYLO, which is probably why our host is going to replace people on a whim.
So about the night hits today and yesterday.
Yesterday these people died:
Palmar was shot by chaoser
GMarshal was shot by BloodyC0bbler
This leaves 3 people unaccounted for and I think maybe they were all shot by scum:
Jackal58 was shot because he wouldn't attract any medic protection and because he's usually a good townie to have around come day2 (Jackal58 will tell you all that he's almost always wrong day1).
SamuelLJackson was shot because he was a hydra and that hit would count as two hits and he wouldn't get medic protected because there was some suspicion on him day1.
VisceraEyes was shot because he was the most obvious townie around and he was very active, also he soft claimed blue/vig.
These hits only make sense if scum didn't know that there wasn't a medic which means that scum did not get full list of roles. I believe this because wherebugsgo was essentially the only person I could shoot with my vig condition and that was only barely. My vig condition is pretty obvious from my role name.
Also, neither Foolishness nor BloodyC0bbler died day1 so scum must have been afraid of some sort of protection roles, they wouldn't be if they had gotten a list of 5-7 vigs unless they thought that everybody is green.
Today's hits were:
wherebugsgo by me (this is the first time I shoot scum so bear with me if I am being a little giddy)
If scum had three hits yesterday they have around that today too, I seriously doubt that they killed 5 people though, 4 scum can't kill 5 people which means that somebody on this list was shot by town. I'm going to guess that scum shot 3 or maybe 4 people people if they have any additional KP.
Foolishness I conjecture was shot by scum because of what he did to wherebugsgo.
chaoser was pretty much confirmed town after having killed Palmar so scum shot him too.
This leaves three people unaccounted for.
BloodyC0bbler was being very inactive and a lot of people found him suspicious so I doubt that he was shot by scum.
This leaves just GGQ or Mr. Wiggles as the last scum hits. I had town reads on both of these guys so I haven't a clue. Maybe some more vigs will claim today or whatever, maybe mafia actually just have this much KP.
RebirthOfLeGenD
He was busy day1 doing some paper, fair enough. Day2 he comes in and tries to explain the night hits, but it appears that his main agenda when explaining the night hits is to exonerate himself.
On December 23 2011 14:42 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Oh and this part. Show nested quote +
Oh, I guess I should announce that I'm shooting RoL. I'm not having a repeat of TMM where he gets away with being busy till the endgame. If I'm wrong then on my head be it (and by that I mean I'll be horribly dead). I know there isn't strong analysis supporting it, but I just spent 3 1/2 hours writing this post/coming up with who to shoot, and I just don't have time to flesh out a fully detailed analysis on anyone before the deadline.
That would also explain why GM released all his reads. If you believe my analysis of this, then congrats. I am now confirmed town by GM's death, or at the very least, confirmed not mafia. If only he said specifically how his role worked, oh well.
The sentence "if you believe my analysis then i am confirmed not mafia" pretty much gives away his intention for doing the analysis in the first place. Townies don't emphasize being confirmed that much, they're content just not being scummy. His entire night1 analysis was full of flaws because he couldn't think clearly because he had this agenda, something that L pointed out up there too.
This is followed up by a case on BloodyC0bbler. The quality of the case itself doesn't really matter here. The case is divided in three parts, posting, night hits and votes. His posting analysis is just going over other people's posts on BloodyC0bbler and adds nothing new. The night hits analysis is wild speculation and fits on just about everybody, he just comes up with some analysis about why people were hit and concludes that BloodyC0bbler might have thought this and thus he was behind it. The voting analysis is ultra safe, he concludes that BloodyC0bbler is scum because he was the fourth vote on LSB, and some article on mafiascum says that 4th vote is often scum.
Also the very first line of the analysis:
On December 25 2011 08:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright well, time to be productive. Sorry guys, I have been lazy and hesitant and whether or not to do this analysis.
[...]
Why would a townie be hesitant about doing analysis, especially one that is ultra safe like this?
I suggest we start out with RebirthOfLeGenD.
##Vote RebirthOfLeGenD
@syllogism Who do we lynch next?
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Well that never posted from my phone. I hit BC, whoops. If someone had less than 5 posts in a cycle I was allowed to hit them. I could also argue someone was not contributing enough at all and hit them likewise.
BC claiming vig seemed like the final nail in the coffin. It now seems kind of obvious that most, if not all of the players in the game have some variant on a vigilante.
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EPT
