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On September 22 2010 08:07 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote:
I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is.
I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves.
The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic?
There are two solutions:
1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic
2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit. *feels selfish* It was my idea! Also, medic shouldn't claim. Why would we want to know who is medic? If he's going to be lynched, he can say so. Point 2 stands for both cases as well.
Pandians idea then!
Lets say we decides day2 we're trying to lynch InFun*
InFun then claims that he is medic. What should we do?
We now know that he is either medic or mafia, but should we follow through with the lynch, or not?
Okay, let's break down the statistics
(I'm assuming worst case scenario, all townie lynches)
Claim Medic day 2:
1 nights of hidden protection
We know someone that is town.
Won't get lynched day 2. Forces the mafia to act if they want to claim medic.
Claim Medic while being lynched:
1-2 nights of hidden protection
We don't have anyone confirmed
The moment a mafia gets accused, they will claim medic.
The thing is, all a hidden medic is going to get is one more night of secrecy (during the worst case scenario).
If we tell the medic to claim at the start of day 2. Mafia would be taking a big risk if they claimed. There is a 50% chance that the other medic will counterclaim, and then we find a mafia. Basically we get a confirmed townie
A confirmed townie + less confusion during lynch time in case we hit a mafia > 1 more hidden night.
+ Show Spoiler +*He killed me in Mafia XXX so I'm going to use him in all my examples whenever someone dies/is scum
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On September 22 2010 08:25 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 07:28 Infundibulum wrote:On September 22 2010 06:00 Foolishness wrote:On September 22 2010 05:56 Bill Murray wrote:
the problem is we might not NEED TO EVER USE IT That will be the situation if we No Lynch now. Barring medic saves of course. ok, I see what you're saying. the problem is that this the only way no lynching today is right is if we have the "best case" scenario of no medic (or no medic saves). i hate playing under the assumption that everything is going to go swimmingly - i'd rather plan our plays to accommodate for the worst case scenario. no lynching day 1 doesn't do this. The extra time is lost later if there is a medic save. So I think the choice comes down to: assume best case, get 'extra time' now VS. assume worst case, get 'extra time' later. I think there's pros and cons to each play... on one hand having more time now is good because there are more players. on the other, using the no lynch when it can protect town from a precarious situation can save the game @ BM sorry, i must have missed that post of yours. gotta give credit where credit is due. at this point it looks like no lynch is pretty far in the lead anyway :s No no no no no I'm assuming worst case scenario in everything. No medic and/or no medic saves is worst case for town. If there is indeed a medic save along the way, that puts mafia at a huge disadvantage because medic can claim. Forcing mafia to counterclaim at the least. We'll deal with that if it happens. We no lynch now we will never have a precarious situation later. It's better to be in a precarious situation with a medic. Of course if you are actually mafia, then yes, best case scenario for you is no medic and/or no medic saves. Is that what you meant?
Maybe I misunderstand you?
i thought you were saying:
1. we no lynch now
2. there are no medic saves
3. town then avoids any situation where we would have needed a no lynch but don't have one anymore
Therefore the 'best case' scenario for no lynching day 1 is that there are no medic saves right? Because a medic save screws up the math, and makes 3v1 possible again? I thought that's what you were saying. I mean obviously every and any hit saved by a medic is a good thing, but in terms of lynch/no lynch math it throws a wrench in the works which is why i thought it was dangerous to make a plan to no lynch that's only good if we assume that one particular set of outcomes are going to happen.
this is a really strange Day 1 for me - every other game I've played on TL people have been adamantly against no lynching
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On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote:
Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait...
Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves...
Today:_______________6 v 2
Tommorow____________5 v 2
Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1
Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win
Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases
What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves.
Agreed! That's why no lynch!
(I swear I said this somewhere earlier)
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.
Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.
Anyways, I can see what you said that this is a possible scum maneuvers. But just remember, a lot of the scum maneuvers and town maneuvers are the same. (Ie both try not to get killed).
However, they do have solid reasons for disagreeing. It's based on No lynching. I can understand them, if Pyrr votes for something, and I disagree with him, I'm not just going to go, "Whatever, I'll just follow Pyrr", I'm going to vote differently
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No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
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Whew.. sorry was out longer than I thought I'd be. I'm trying to meet the deadline atm. I'm assuming it's 10 minutes from now and I'm too bothered to check so. I'm going to vote team 1 for the sole reason that the transition between his pressure on our team to a medic plan that's only viable on day 2 has been bothering me. Also him saying that he was "pretty certain that team 2 is mafia" is unnerving to say the least considering that there was absolutely jack squat to back that up.
##Vote Team 1
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On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Ya I understand that the mafia would avoid him.
But what if we are lynching someone, and then he suddenly claims that he's a medic?
That's a big problem
Anyways, when you think about it, the medic doesn't have that much nights with his ability (in the worst case senario).
Of course, I could just be a pessimist with all my worst case senario thinking.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
I killed you because your plan was a mafia plan
+ Show Spoiler +On September 08 2010 07:40 LSB wrote:Reason 4) Pro mafia plans Show nested quote +On September 06 2010 02:50 Pandain wrote:
So here's what I say we do:
We make no accusations, whatsover. We let the NSVD work his way through checking everybody and then go with what he says. However, I'm thinking the NSVD should only claim like maybe after finding 2 scum(maybe even after checking everyone? n.n).
Than we lynch. The only problem I can see is that if there is a mafia role involving killing someone. I already PMed Caller and mafia themselves do not have the ability to kill someone. But roles are hidden so they might very well have a role that can kill people at night.
Either way, waiting at least until this day ends will both help stop an unnecessary death and let us wait until we see if the mafia have any really dangerous roles. This is an extremely mafia idea, Pandain wants us just to sit around waiting. This is always really bad relying soley on one person who may or may not be alive/in-existance. Pandain then changes his plan to "lets kill all inactives". Good idea, but most of the time, (ie 99% of the time) inactive are greens that don't feel the motivation to post because their role isn't 'cool'. It's good for the mafia as all the mafia has to do is stay active, and boom, a whole bunch of day kills go off ##Accusation: Pandian
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On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
i dont know. it's kind of established at this point that a medic should protect himself. so if the mafia make a hit and it gets blocked, they can assume whoever they targeted was the medic. since the mafia obviously knows who they target, i think it makes sense for the medic to claim then.
i'm not sure what happens if a medic protects someone else and blocks a hit though.
just precursory thoughts are that if the medic makes a save, he should probably claim - i get the feeling mafia fakeclaims are potentially very powerful in this game
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claim medic on Day 2? are you serious?
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On September 22 2010 09:18 Ace wrote:
claim medic on Day 2? are you serious?
Well, we are doing a no lynch Day 1, so there is no reason to claim Day 1
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ace who are you addressing?
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On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1.
No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading.
No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then.
In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches.
Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time:
Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
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On September 22 2010 09:24 Infundibulum wrote:
ace who are you addressing?
I was fast reading, that was to LSB. Pretty much anyone advocating a medic claim should be looked at suspiciously. Unless the medic protects someone and the person is hit he/she should be quiet. Of course, if the person is hit then BOTH of them should claim. If there is a medic with 2 scum in the game it would be pretty sickening if on Night 1 they did this. If there is a DT they just ignore those 2 players for now and check other people out. Only way for this to fail is if both players are Scum and we can always lynch the non-medic claimer for confirmation on both if things get bad.
Also why would the medic self-protect? That's just ridiculous. Protect whoever you think is most valuable to the survival of the town.
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On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save NOT gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
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On September 22 2010 09:37 Ace wrote:I was fast reading, that was to LSB. Pretty much anyone advocating a medic claim should be looked at suspiciously. Unless the medic protects someone and the person is hit he/she should be quiet. Of course, if the person is hit then BOTH of them should claim. If there is a medic with 2 scum in the game it would be pretty sickening if on Night 1 they did this. If there is a DT they just ignore those 2 players for now and check other people out. Only way for this to fail is if both players are Scum and we can always lynch the non-medic claimer for confirmation on both if things get bad. Also why would the medic self-protect? That's just ridiculous. Protect whoever you think is most valuable to the survival of the town.
I've explained this before. You see, normally medics should do just that, as that is the best indicator of a townie(who you want to protect.) That is the goal of the medic, to stave off hits off townies and weaken the mafias power.
Now, let's say he protects the "valuable" contributors. There's a 2/8 chance that that person is red. Therefore, the medic would be useless. However, by protecting himself he knows he's protecting a townie, and mafia is unaware of who is medic, so they have to shoot into the dark, knowing one of them is a medic.
Basically, by allowing medic to protect himself we get a guaranteed townie to protect.
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Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables.
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On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables.
Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.)
Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds.
And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help.
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Night 1
Everyone quieted down as the timer counted down its last seconds. The timer sounded, just like an alarm clock, giving you a pang of homesickness. You remember the warmth of your bed as you shiver on the cold floor.
The voice came on again from under the metal apparatus.
Well well, looks like you children aren't ready to get your hands dirty yet. Very well, if that's what you want. Tomorrow I won't be so forgiving if this happens again. Return to your rooms and close the doors behind you. I will see you bright and early tomorrow morning.
You get up slowly, but you don't fall this time as you are a bit more used to being attached to your partner. You see the group of three fall over on the other side of the room and cursing silently to themselves. Somehow you don't have it in you to laugh.
You and your partner walk silently back to your room. There's a blanket barely large enough for one in the corner and a stained pillow with some of its stuffing poking out. Since you are wearing a long sleeve shirt and your partner has a t-shirt on, you decide on the pillow and leave the blanket for your partner.
You feel a wave of exhaustion wash over you as you lie down. You swear you heard a sound whispering next to your ear.
Sleep well darling, tonight may just be your last.
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*Pandain Whispering in Aces Ear*
Kill....
Kill....
Kill....
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On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help.
Classic Monty Hall problem:
If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%.
If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie)
So what do you want to do?
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EPT
