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On January 04 2013 22:41 TeMiL wrote:
answering mocsta questions:
(1) So far your post count reads as useless fluff. Why should I not vote for you?
am a really newbie in this game, i you check others mafia games you wouldnt find me anywhere. if i get voted maybe i can loose any interest of this game but in the other case i will learn more and be more active.
Saying you are a newbie doesn't get far in this game. We are all newbies. It doesn't really help you if you (semi-)threaten us about your interest in the game if we vote you out first.
thanks :D actually i didnt lurker at all if u consider lurker a gamer that only entered 3 times. right now am reading everything and with my phone back ill be writing every minute 
A lurker is someone who is in the game, but isn't posting much. People want to have discussions with everyone, so if you aren't posting, people don't know what to think of you.
On January 04 2013 23:14 TeMiL wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2013 22:49 zarepath wrote:
TeMiL, what do you think about my earlier analysis of Sylencia? u have something agains australians or isjust causality to target him? looks like you now how to analyse a gamer. its a good brief of course and thanks to made me read it again.
Most of us (5 or 6) are Australians?
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ive just make a chart with your connections.
i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says:
TeMiL - Peru
Sylencia - Australia
Spaghetticus - Australia
Mocsta - Australia
StriX - Australia
OmniEulogy - Canada
jampidampi - Finland
cDgCorazon - USA
zarepath - USA
i need to make some conclusiones with this information
On January 04 2013 23:50 Spaghetticus wrote:
@TeMiL
If you stick around after we're both out, I would like to talk to you also. //fluff
:$
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There's really no connection between country and players (roles).
(Mocsta, this really does remind me of Axle)
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Hmmm...
While I agree with Mocsta's conclusion I arrived there by very different means. In fact, I had entirely forgotten TeMiL's English being his second language. This, coupled with Mocsta's convergent OC, makes me reconsider TeMiL in a few ways which I will need time to straighten out. I am also going through the majority of the thread again, and was planning on trawling filters, so a clear and confident position is not to be expected from me for at least a few hours.
Basically, I am thinking of switching my vote to one of the other two lurkers (Strix or Jampi). My reasoning is convoluted even to me, I'm gonna need pen and paper for this one.
My filter trawling will be looking at second guessing the presumed activity levels of certain players, to guard against the possibility of 'active lurkers' or disregarding inactive players that contribute.
As a heads up. If I do switch my vote, it will likely be to Strix. I appreciate your position as an analytic strategist, but it is best for both town and you as a player if you learn to actively contribute [b]while[b/] generating a master-stroke. I am tempted to do exactly as you do, but while I generate my reads I see the need to interact and contribute. You will get lynched if you do not participate. This (again) is not a threat but an educated prediction. Being an analyst I assume you have some reads by now, and that by allowing yourself to be more transparent it is well within your means to push the LAL vote(s) onto Jamp or back onto TeMiL.
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I am going to bed.
I was willing to hear other peoples cases on other participants until TeMiL just posted his connection theory.
I am 100% sure he is town, but hes just too useless. My vote is sticking on him.
Good night, I won't be around for the lynch deadline, best of luck to all.
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Post Count Summary
Intent:
To identify participants ""flying under the radar"" and not actively contributing.
The intent is not to provide a quality check on posts
That onus falls upon all of town individually.
Session 3
From: 04-Jan: 0930
To: 04-Jan: 2130
+ Show Spoiler +- cDgCorazon: 20
(8 in session)
- Sylencia: 22
(4 in session)
- OmniEulogy: 18
(10 in session)
- Spaghetticus: 27
(0 in session)
- Mocsta: 28
(11 in session)
- zarepath: 15
(3 in session)
- TeMil: 6
(0 in session)
- jampidampi: 8
(0 in session)
- StriX: 19
(6 in session)
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Ew. I didn't realise how little time we had. I don't like Mocsta's absence, as it both deprives us of a valued player and seems to contribute to the possibility of bandwagon play. Mocsta's post would actually be really scummy if it weren't completely legitimate for his timezone. I would be looking at going to bed soon too if sleep was even a sliver of a possibility in this heat. Oh well, I guess that's good for my game XD
Mocsta, if you are still about, what do the numbers mean? How do you define 'in session'? And what is the other, bigger number? Could you please spell this out for me please?
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To everyone saying that I am lurker: I may have very few posts, but each and every one of them holds a meaning. I do not post without thinking. Every post is crafted with a clear purpose to push the town agenda. Randomly pointing out suspicions that are not severe enough to warrant a case on someone just makes them play more carefully. If the intention is to actually catch a scum, you need to tell about your suspicions while actually providing sufficient evidence. But if you require pointing fingers of suspicion around whenever theres even a bit of scumminess, I will begin to do so.
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On January 05 2013 00:28 Spaghetticus wrote:
Mocsta, if you are still about, what do the numbers mean? How do you define 'in session'? And what is the other, bigger number? Could you please spell this out for me please?
Since he's in bed, I'll answer this first:
Big number next to your name: total posts
Small number (in session): amount of posts you made in between the two times he set.
Session 3
From: 04-Jan: 0930
To: 04-Jan: 2130
So you see there's the to and from, and so I posted 4 times between those two times.
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Also, I will ##unvote for now, since it seems like I have been told to read Zare's filter more carefully, I might have been too rash.
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On January 05 2013 00:03 Sylencia wrote:
There's really no connection between country and players (roles).
(Mocsta, this really does remind me of Axle)
i think theres a connection but only my sense will be right or not.
please answer my question cause this is my first one and you need to make mistakes to learn.
about @jampidampi i thought he was lurk because he had almost the same count of post like me, but like he said he had an intention and i think he contributed more than me. you are an only-man-country (@OmniEulogy too) like me.
although your vote doesnt mean you are saved of being the next target.
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The Perfect Votecount:
zarepath (1): OmniEulogy,
TeMiL (2): Spaghetticus,Mocsta
StriX (1): jampidampi
Not voting (5): cDgCorazon, zarepath, TeMiL, ,StriX,Sylencia
Currently, TeMiL is set to be lynched!
Just as a reminder, day 1 deadline will be at 01:00 GMT (+00:00), because of the performed YOLO.
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I was born here and live here in Australia?
If this is leading anywhere, you need to tell us what it is now because otherwise it is just all fluff which is considered scummy (causes confusion and it makes things harder for people to read and understand)
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Thank you Syl, I appreciate it.
@Jampi
I will go through your filter before I make a decision to switch, Strix claims a similar position and I will treat you equally.
While I have not yet gone through your filter, my impression is that regardless of your post quality, it is not enough. Remember, your first (but not only) priority is to confirm yourself as town. If you confirm yourself as town we will not mislynch you. In order to accurately appraise you we need information, and that is achieved by you providing input. From the rest of town's perspective, your inactivity is suspicious. Town is an emotional beast that is subject to the machinations of a calculating minority. By not contributing actively you are giving scum the opportunity to mislynch you before you can complete your perfect case. Do not give them that chance. Spend time securing short term goals in order to actualise long term ones.
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TeMiL drop the countries connection. Nobody will listen (for a reason), and it might get you lynched. Any correlation between countries and pressure or roles is entirely coincidental. The only exception I can think of is you. You are coming under fire due to your English communication skills, which is strongly associated to where you come from. Freude would have a field day speculating as to whether your approach to Mafia is some sort of preemptive damage control.
Drop the countries thing.
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My vote before I go to bed will be currently going to jampi. I'll be back before the deadline, so jampi, if you have a defense, feel free to post it.
On January 03 2013 22:46 jampidampi wrote:
As to why you shouldn't lynch the current me: I prefer only to post if it has a meaning. Answearing questing and asking them. Sharing my reads on someone. Unnecessary spam just clutters the thread and hides important post.
This is the reason you have given us for a lack of posts. It's one of your first posts, so it's actually more of a pre-emptive explanation of why you would be lurking. You have answered the questions presented, but you do not give us your insight unless asked. This gives me the impression you have to formulate thoughts before giving the answer. If you are a townie, there needs to be more spontaneous input when you observe something that strikes you as being off.
You posted some of your town reads, but a lot of it was based on some meta-reads and the logic behind them was still a little flawed. (The reason why the QT was brought up as a potential scum play was because it feigns ignorance, not sure if this was explained.) (Mentioning your scum play from last game doesn't make you more town, it can also be used to distance yourself from your previous game, and thus give the illusion of playing more town)
After that, you start to zero in on Strix. Your suspicion only came to light once Mocsta had come and asked you about Strix. This strikes me as suspicious, because it really comes out of nowhere. This is why I would say if you were town, you would bring it up when you saw fit to. Ask questions about it earlier. Instead, there's a sudden accusation followed by a few points made about his posts.
In one of your points, you mention how he targets the biggest lurker we have in the group, even though he said in his policy statement he wants to LAL. If anything, that only reinforces the fact he was, at the time since he did end up retracting the vote, following what he said.
Your second last statement essentially says 'what I stated against you could be town or could be scum', essentially being on the fence about whether or not he is scum. If he flips, you have some insurance if he is town by saying 'looks like it was town motivated.'
Basically, your posts give the impression you're on the fence about whether he is scum or not, you say he is contributing nothing, but you do not provide cases for anyone else and choose to tunnel on Strix.
##Vote jampi
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I think a serious flaw in our discussion so far is the very limited discussion on the actual cases presented, namely zares case on syl (everyone has just said something along the lines of agreeing or saing that it is good analysis, but nobody has actually tried to argue with/against them) and my case on Strix.
@cDgCorazon:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 04 2013 08:31 cDgCorazon wrote:
Your activity has been in your head. You should really think before calling me out for not posting.
However, I do think you have fair points on analyzing Sylencia's filter. I would like to see how Syl answers these accusations, and then I will make a read based on those as well.
Are you saying so far that everything Sylencia has done has been scummy or fluff?? You used the word "scum" in analyzing every most of his posts (and the other ones you called fluff).
You haven't posted your thoughts on this. What is your current opinion about Sylencia?
@All
How do you feel about my read on StriX?
Do you think Syl's case has been resolved or should we pressure him more?
Seriously, if we discuss our reads like this, we cannot ever hope to catch scum.
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Well... this is embarrassing. I had these two posts in my word document ready to go, and almost deleted them before I realised I probably hadn't posted them yet.
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I'm pretty sure this was in reply to Sylencia, I could be mistaken
Spag: What is to stop scum from controlling which lurker gets voted? Couldn't you argue that they would actually have more power, since they know which lurker, if any, is the other member of their team, and then just push for whichever other candidates there are?
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On January 04 2013 00:20 Spaghetticus wrote:
I play for the long game, and think little of the chance of day one scum lynches.
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Why do you push for a random lynch on day 1 over something such as no lynch (even though I explained earlier, does not give information)? You want to play for the long game, but killing off random players pushes the game into a faster pace, where we could end up losing on Night 3 if all goes wrong (all mislynches, a night kill per night). Rereading what I just wrote from this sentence, I have a feeling I'm misinterpreting what you're saying here, so feel free to correct me, but it just sounds rather contradictory to me to have these two actions.
It is not a random lynch. Lurking benefits scum, and is therefore not pro-town behaviour. Lurking is scummy, though town can do it too. The chances of a scum read off other factors are lower [I think, this is not a known statistic to me]. Scum want lurkers alive day two, as they are an easy mislynch when under pressure, it’s akin to having a ‘get out of jail free’ card. Getting a kill on two active towns before day two comes round is the scum dream, and by lynching active players you are walking straight into this likely trap, making their best case scenario a likelihood.
“Hypothetical” Scenario:
Three lurkers
Three moderately active players
Three active players
An active player is lynched day one, and active player is NKed night one. That leaves 1-3 ‘free’ mislynches and one threat that will possibly be eliminated night two (depending on medic availability and competence). This is a strongly scum favoured scenario and by leaving lurkers until day two you are making this possibility a probability.
There is at best a 25% chance to lynch scum day one if going for an active townie (my estimate is a lot less). The chances of a successful NK action on night one are pretty high too.
Note that regardless of where the two scum fall within the lurker spectrum, this position is fantastic for them. They always have the option to ‘improve’ when required to keep ahead of lazy town lurkers, just like Corazon did in XXXIII. Your day two lurker lynch will also be pretty unproductive, and a successful NK on night two would seal the deal.
You might say that this is a lot of mights (haha). This is true. But make serious considerations of the math behind it and you will realise that playing for an successful lynch day one is a gambit where you don’t know which pieces do what, or even which pieces belong to whom. You have at best a 25% chance of a positive outcome (not better than a LAL vote), and every other conceivable outcome is inferior for town when compared to LAL.
On top of this, LAL is not random, as you claim. Lurking is anti-town behaviour whether it is displayed by town or scum. Everyone knows it, even the newbies. There is no interpretation here. If a town lurks, he knows he is damaging town, there is no wriggle room. Anything that damages town’s chances is scummy, making lurking a very clear scumsign, one superior to other scumsigns as a read in many ways.
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@Mocsta in response to his question[/b]
(1) Your response to Session 2. Q2
________________________________________
Strong scum reads have already revealed a lot about themselves, and you can expect pressure on them later.
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Care to develop this further (I do understand you said real life commitments would plague you today)
From your other posts, I am guessing you have aligned yourself along similar thoughts, but I will go through this motion for the sake of transparent play and for anyone not thinking along similar lines.
Strong scum reads only come from active players. If a player is inactive they cannot give strong reads (which is one reason why scum like to be inactive). When I refer to a strong scum read, I use this as one category under the umbrella of active player. No lurker is a ‘strong’ scum read. All active players contribute information on themselves, including their interpretation of events. The more information a person contributes, the more chances to make mistakes or contradictions exist, and thus over time, an active mafia is likely to be caught. If someone is an active player that is also a ‘strong’ scum read, you can expect that over time their guilt will compound into fool-proof cases, and they will be caught.
Lurker scum have a strength trend that is almost the opposite of this. Lurker scum that are not dealt with early get stronger. By sitting in the background a lurker scum develops an understanding of the atmosphere (in combination with his information advantage) in order to better manipulate it. He has made zero commitment to a playstyle (excluding meta information) and can thus adjust his style in order to make town mislynch. Improvements in his activity will be applauded by town (again, see XXXIII Corazon). There is no information on him so as long as people prioritise ‘strong’ scum reads over lurky scum reads, town will decapitate themselves leaving only moderately active/lurky players plus scum, which is a [b]TERRIBLE position for town. This is why I LAL, and unless you have a logical reason to disagree, you should to. I do not want a debate about this. If you have a reason to not LAL, I don’t need to hear it, as it will clutter the board, and take emphasis off of scum-hunting. We can discuss this via PM after the game if you feel you have a stronger understanding. Your vote is your own, so if you disagree with me, use your vote as you see fit.
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EPT
