Dwarf Fortress Mini Mafia - Page 15

On August 09 2012 05:38 Mordanis wrote:
He starts the game off with a really bad post. + Show Spoiler + As the first post of any kind, you have to think about its purpose. Regardless of how a game progresses, it always starts with policy-talking. There is simply nothing to talk about before this. Really, what do people talk about at the beginning of a game if there is no policy talk? I see this as anti-discussion, which obviously helps scum. Furthermore, by posting zero content while coming out against policy, Shiao is trying to grab town cred. Trying to gain town's trust seems more scum motivated than town-motivated. Town wants scum found, doesn't really care if one VT dies in the process. The life of any scum is much more valued though, so survival is much more important. This makes town trust much more valuable to scum than to town. Overall, this is pretty suspicious.

On August 09 2012 05:38 Mordanis wrote:
My problem with this is that he is not hunting for mistakes, not scum-slips or scum motivations. Everyone makes mistakes, so looking for mistakes seems like a really bad way to hunt for scum. Now in my previous games, I'd have dismissed this as an inexperienced townie who simply doesn't know how to hunt scum. Shiao does not fit this however. He has played several non-newbie games, which means that he has much more experience than I and Keir. Should he not then be capable of hunting scum via analysis, and not pushing for a lynch based on bad logic?

On July 27 2012 07:43 Mordanis wrote:
Rather than sitting in a circle and deciding whom to lynch based on who sing "Kum ba yah, My Lord" the most off key (what kind of villainous scum would do such a thing?), I think its time to begin the scumhunt. Anyways, I apologize in advance if this seems somewhat rushed. I want to get the hunt going as early as possible, and I feel we've wasted the first hour and a half. So without further ado, here comes (hopefully) the first case of the game:

      Mordanis's's case on Keirathi
K (for some reason your name is really hard for me to type) began this game by virtually claiming Town RB. + Show Spoiler +. Now this may have been a case of extreme newbiness, which would be understandable, but Mr. K has played in at least 2 other games, so I believe he knew how this post would be interpreted. This brings up 3 possibilities:

1: Mr. K is VT, and he is trying to "take one for the team". He knows that the scum will see this post and read him blue, and he'll die tonight instead of a real blue. If this were to happen, he'd have helped town. If he gets lynched today, it'll be bad for town, but it will be deal-with-able.

2: Mr. K is actually townie RB. Perhaps he is trying to make his "claim" so obvious the scum will think option 1 is happening. Trying to hide out in the open. If he is killed during the night, we're in pretty bad shape. But if this option is the case and he's lynched today, we're in even worse shape, because he won't have used his power even once. That said, he implied that he wouldn't want to use it N1 anyway, so the options are virtually the same.

3: Mr. K is scum, and is trying to use this as means to get himself out of trouble. If he ever gets some heat brought to him, he just says "Dude, I basically claimed town RB, I don't think its a good idea to lynch me" The claim also puts pressure on any real blues to claim, and when everyone claims, a claim isn't worth anything. Basically, this post seems mildly non-protown, and it gives him a way to defend himself. Destabilizing town and giving yourself an extra cycle seems very scummy to me. If we lynch him today, we're off to a great start. And if this option is the case, scum aren't killing him tonight.

Of these three, option 2 seems by far the least probable. So that being said, I think that right now Keirathi is the best candidate for lynching. Still, its pretty early so I don't think it would be wise in any way to commit right now. Last thing: I have to go to work now, and I'll be back in probably 5 hours (rakin in the cash makin pizza), just FYI.

On July 28 2012 06:36 Mordanis wrote:
I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about Shady. Remember his post that said that no game in 20 lynched scum D1? + Show Spoiler +

Here are the D1 lynches from several games:
NMM XXI: blue
NMM XX: red
NMM XIX: blue
NMM XVIII: green
NMM XVII: red
NMM XVI: blue
(I couldn't find XV or XIV, so I chose to go to the SNMMs)
SNMM XI: red
SNMM X: green
SNMM IX: green
So we have 3 blues lynched, 3 VT lynched, and 3 scum lynched. So it would appear that in Newbie mini mafia games, there is about a 1/3 chance of lynching scum D1. With 3/13 chance a random lynch would hit scum (~24%), and historically a 1/3 chance of hitting scum through hunting, the choice is clear. This is for future reference really, as we're already hunting. But this brings up the fact that Shady almost certainly lied. Now there is sometimes a reason for a townie to lie. If it opens up an avenue for them to discover scum, or take one for the team, or accomplishes another goal it can be a boon to lie to the town. On the other hand, by suggesting that scum hunting D1 is useless, Shady is 1) discouraging discussion (why discuss when it only lowers the probability of hitting scum?), 2) stalling the game (mafia wants to stall as long as possible. they use their kp regardless of where our lynch ends up), and 3) trying to influence newbies' thinking (if analysis/scum hunt isn't the main priority, then mafia get off free for mistakes while being able to penalize some other player. This goes with stalling). In short, Shady lied in a pretty baldfaced manner, and the lie only serves the interest of mafia. Also, after reading through Obvious's filter last game, I saw that his behavior was almost identical to Golbat's. Golbat, you need to contribute, because if you don't, you're going to be looking even scummier. But I have seen almost identical play from a townie (Obvious was lynched D1 though), so for now I am going to switch my vote.
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##Vote: Shady_Sands