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On February 28 2009 15:12 redtooth wrote:
Yes it's finally started!
First off, we shouldn't do any clue analysis on the first day (especially clues that vague...). I don't know if RoL and Pyrr are probing but I suggest you lay off accusing. You'd be surprised how influential bandwagons are. I really don't want to die the first day just because you thought "sharp" equates to "redtooth" and "blue_arrow". That's just stupid.
As for "start posting", there's only a few people who have a significant enough background to be threatened by behavior analysis. Especially since the majority of the "power players" are either smurfing or not playing. We'll see how that turns out (Ace are you out there somewhere?).
Just guessing that a silent player is mafia is probably not a good idea. I think a lot of players in this game are new players (at least that is what I feel...) and we can expect some to be legitimately not participating due to forgetfulness or otherwise. Now if that silent person was previously an active poster... that changes things.
Also, using powers is different per role. The OP makes it sound like detective gets to use his ability nightly (confirmation please?) while the doctor cannot use his ability two nights in a row. This will lead to more strategical uses (staggering saves to keep a person alive?) but severely weakens the doctor and makes each save precious.
Though its only been an ~hour since the game started at the time of writing this, I actually expected much more participation even at this stage. Come on guys, let's keep this game alive, running, and fun! It's 1AM EST so when I wake up I hope to see a lot more posts!
Lynching silent players is a good thing, if there are more silent players then its easier for mafia to just not post anything and look inactive. So guys post as much as you can even if it is just to say im here
Edit: Guys btw dont edit your posts bar to add content to it, you cant change anything you decide to get post or you get kicked from the game, and yes i relised i edited my post to say this ^^
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On February 28 2009 16:48 3clipse wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2009 16:02 Rice wrote:On February 28 2009 15:36 3clipse wrote:On February 28 2009 15:27 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I definitely wouldn't vote for blue arrow or you based on anything thus far Well, if we can't find anything more solid to go on we're going to have to make some uninformed decisions at the start. That said, I think the "benign man" clue is a lot more telling. This HAS to be inertinept. It's practically the definition of the damn words. no way, the pandabearguy is benign Ok, he's mafia too. You're also mafia for disagreeing with me. 
Hrmm.... either:
1) Rice is mafia, defending another mafia member being accused. In this case, Inertinept
2) Rice is town, just adamant about pandabearguy being a potential mafia member and I am looking into this too much.
I say this because this is exactly what happened in the game when Ace (who was GF) got accused of being mafia by the Village Idiot (BC?) and... malongo? AttackZerg? or some other mafia immediately came to Ace's defense.
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Im gonna play this game in random mode (aka instinctively selecting my vote), since last game (callers game) i proved scientifically my absolute inability to do clue analisis. So expect me to join the mob most of the time
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Chuiu says in the story that the mafia threaten the town with a nuke. Which can be a clue for:
MasterOfChaos. His profile section has a .jpeg file of a Nuke
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^^ Also, to add to my above post, Bockit also has a nuclear/nukes reference when his profile quotes "America turtled on island and tech to nukes. Also, some drop harass. - Jyvblamo, On WWII"
I think if the nuclear warhead is a clue and if it can point to anyone, I'd go with MasterOfChaos more so than Bockit.
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Oh, morning everyone (well, it's 11:30 but I stayed up too long).
I guess the european players like me are just getting around to read stuff up. I've only played one game of mafia so far (that one which went on for months  ), and it clearly showed that my clue analysis is a bit weak 
I definitely don't want to bandwagon anything, or anyone, but guys - understand that we have to pick someone for day 1. I remember how random it was in our game (poor iNc Mad Hatter just because Ace didn't like something about him ). I'm terribly sorry for whoever it may be, but we simply have to brainstorm ideas and go with the most plausible one - until we get more clues.
So far, I don't like Rice's behavior, but I'm inclined to think he may just be a random townie a bit overzealous with his ideas, pushing it (notice how early he posted "pandabearguy is mafia").
Thus, to me the most plausible idea seems to be inertinept = benign man.
But continue posting more ideas! Especially about what town ability to use.
Overtime has the huge benefit that mafia cannot make that backfire on us (today that is), but for example it's strength is mitigated by the lack of info for clue-checkers. I mean, they could go randomly at best with all those checks.
Sanctuary's good, and I agree perhaps we should use it for medics (and pray that they protect the right targets ). Reasons are posted above, I won't reiterate it for you to have more stuff to read, I already wrote a wall of text I feel
Edit: because I randomly clicked "add image" inbetween two paragraphs, lol
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Sigh, and just when I almost finish finding nuclear references in user profiles.... Ra.Xor.2 has a quote saying "Nuclear Launch Detected - South Korea on hearing that SC2 sucks" in his profile.
Obviously, this doesn't mean that the nuclear warhead clue is not a clue because one of the 3 may still be mafia. But it'd be nice if we kept an eye on the 3 people that I mentioned. I'd rank strength of clues for the three in this order assuming that the nuke is a clue:
1) MasterOfChaos
2) Ra.Xor.2
quite a bit weaker
3) Bockit
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On February 28 2009 19:42 JL13 wrote:
^^ Also, to add to my above post, Bockit also has a nuclear/nukes reference when his profile quotes "America turtled on island and tech to nukes. Also, some drop harass. - Jyvblamo, On WWII"
I think if the nuclear warhead is a clue and if it can point to anyone, I'd go with MasterOfChaos more so than Bockit.
Clue analysis is always good but please dont post people as mafia off weak clues esp off day 1, we understand what your saying
just a little pet peeve
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Oh, and another thing:
Voting is closed tomorrow already (which means today, I guess, it's "tomorrow" already in the US too, even if it's dawntime), so we should start voting here (as there will be no separate blogs / threads for it).
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On February 28 2009 19:53 Scaramanga wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2009 19:42 JL13 wrote:
^^ Also, to add to my above post, Bockit also has a nuclear/nukes reference when his profile quotes "America turtled on island and tech to nukes. Also, some drop harass. - Jyvblamo, On WWII"
I think if the nuclear warhead is a clue and if it can point to anyone, I'd go with MasterOfChaos more so than Bockit. Clue analysis is always good but please dont post people as mafia off weak clues esp off day 1, we understand what your saying just a little pet peeve
Okay, no problem. I guess by posting up names, I make people more inclined to look only at the names I posted. At the same time though, by posting up names, it draws attention to those people which can also benefit. Regardless, since you let me know of that, I'll be sure to heed your words in the future.
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First of all I would like to encourage everyone to be active. Inactivity can be a great tool for the mafia to use. Secondly, clues. Now I'm not great at analyzing those things but hey it's worth a shot.
Qualities mafia posses: they bare a mark on their arm, several look like criminals previously incarcerated.
In this day we are introduced to 3 mafia. A man who looks sharp, a man who looks benign and a third one on lookout.
Lookout: this is the first mafia we see, this mafia has not been described yet. It was this mafia that handed the bats to the other two. Take note that he never actually engages in violence himself, instead preferring to let the other two do the work.
Sharp: This mafia looks sharp. No further details about him given. Sharpness may be literal or referring to a cleverness of some sort.
Benign: this man looks benign. Also no further detail.
Manner of deaths: Chuiu dies from too many blows to the head. Bloody died from having a bat shoved in his mouth and then having the side of his head smashed. Possibly hinting that his assailant is particularly cruel or brutal.
If town doesn't lynch someone once a day mafia nuke the town. Playing a cruel game. The mafia like to play games. Nuke may be a clue in itself.
My suspects: inertinept as benign, it is pretty much the definition of the words as someone said. I feel this is a very strong clue pointing at him. Especially on the first day where we don't have much else.
on our use of abilities. We should use them as often as possible. The best one to use today seems to be sanctuary or overtime. Since we really don't have enough clues to call a double lynch. I'm leaning towards overtime myself. Since it give the medics a lot of saving power, minimizing deaths this night.(can a medic protect himself?) It also allows us to save sanctuary for later in the game, when mafia have a better idea of who the blues are.
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Northern Ireland22213 Posts
I think we're putting a little too much emphasis on the nuke reference, I definitely agree that inert-inept fits the benign clue, and it's the strongest lead we have. Will there be a separate voting topic?
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Based on the ruleset, here are some optimal plays that I've come up with.
Private Eyes: (PE)
1.) Don't use your rolecheck ability. Vote checks are far stronger and get more powerful as the game goes on. Rolechecks become far less useful. Attempting to use both isn't worth the risk as the only time you should use the rolecheck-guess is if you know the person's role 100%. If you already know, why use the rolecheck at all? (This system is just silly, Chuiu... )
2.) Announce in the thread before you use your Vote Check. The worst thing that can happen is that we have multiple Private Eyes check the same vote. Once you use your ability, you are basically a green so it doesn't matter if you reveal your role. Related, check the thread before you make your vote check to ensure you aren't duplicating a check.
3.) Immediately post the Vote Check results to the thread. As mentioned in 2, once used you are green. Your death would only help the town at that point as it means that a paramedic or detective is not dying!
Sidenotes: Following the above means that mafia can pretend to be PEs and "claim" a vote, keeping our PEs from checking and then spreading false information. This is possible, but a dumb trade as the information can be ignored once the false calimer is revealed and it leads to more scrutiny of the claimer.
Detectives: (DE)
1.) Use your abilities every day. Duh.
2.) Pay special attention to anyone who claims to be a PE.
Paramedics:
1.) After you stop a hit, always let your target know about it via PM. They are 100% confirmed townies as there are no vigilantes in this game and Mafia cannot send a hit against themselves.
Veteran:
1.) The only time you should use your extra vote is if the voting is close. Nght lives are far more important to you.
General:
If you are protected from a hit, DO NOT reveal your role to a medic who PMs you until some time has elapsed. As L showed in game 2, fake roleclaiming as a medic is a powerful tool as the Mafia know who they tried to hit and survived. The chances of them risking it are low as there are veterans in this game, but give it enough time for the "real" medic to pm you.
****EVERYONE VOTE**** PEs cannot check non-voters or abstains (Correct me if I am wrong here Chuiu) so if there are lots of inactive townie voters, then the mafia can simply not vote. If all the townies vote, the mafia is forced to as well lest they be picked apart by vote checks.
Edit: Clarity.
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On February 28 2009 20:50 LTT wrote:Based on the ruleset, here are some optimal plays that I've come up with. Private Eyes: (PE)1.) Don't use your rolecheck ability. Vote checks are far stronger and get more powerful as the game goes on. Rolechecks become far less useful. Attempting to use both isn't worth the risk as the only time you should use the rolecheck-guess is if you know the person's role 100%. If you already know, why use the rolecheck at all? (This system is just silly, Chuiu... ) 2.) Announce in the thread before you use your Vote Check. The worst thing that can happen is that we have multiple Private Eyes check the same vote. Once you use your ability, you are basically a green so it doesn't matter if you reveal your role. Related, check the thread before you make your vote check to ensure you aren't duplicating a check. 3.) Immediately post the Vote Check results to the thread. As mentioned in 2, once used you are green. Your death would only help the town at that point as it means that a paramedic or detective is not dying! Sidenotes: Following the above means that mafia can pretend to be PEs and "claim" a vote, keeping our PEs from checking and then spreading false information. This is possible, but a dumb trade as the information can be ignored once the false calimer is revealed and it leads to more scrutiny of the claimer. Detectives: (DE)1.) Use your abilities every day. Duh. 2.) Pay special attention to anyone who claims to be a PE. Paramedics:1.) After you stop a hit, always let your target know about it via PM. They are 100% confirmed townies as there are no vigilantes in this game and Mafia cannot send a hit against themselves. Veteran:1.) The only time you should use your extra vote is if the voting is close. Nght lives are far more important to you. General: If you are protected from a hit, DO NOT reveal your role to a medic who PMs you until some time has elapsed. As L showed in game 2, fake roleclaiming as a medic is a powerful tool as the Mafia know who they tried to hit and survived. The chances of them risking it are low as there are veterans in this game, but give it enough time for the "real" medic to pm you. ****EVERYONE VOTE**** PEs cannot check non-voters or abstains (Correct me if I am wrong here Chuiu) so if there are lots of inactive townie voters, then the mafia can simply not vote. If all the townies vote, the mafia is forced to as well lest they be picked apart by vote checks. Edit: Clarity.
Private eye.
Hmm, seems like a good idea but as you said there is nothing stopping mafia from faking a check. How about this, anyone that presents a vote check is lynched as soon as possible to confirm their legitimacy. Should stop mafia from faking.
Detectives.
Agreed.
Paramedics.
Agreed.
Veterans.
Agreed.
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Northern Ireland22213 Posts
So basically we lynch the rolechecker, and if he turns green we take out the mafia he exposed
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On February 28 2009 21:22 BWdero wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2009 20:50 LTT wrote:Based on the ruleset, here are some optimal plays that I've come up with. Private Eyes: (PE)1.) Don't use your rolecheck ability. Vote checks are far stronger and get more powerful as the game goes on. Rolechecks become far less useful. Attempting to use both isn't worth the risk as the only time you should use the rolecheck-guess is if you know the person's role 100%. If you already know, why use the rolecheck at all? (This system is just silly, Chuiu... ) 2.) Announce in the thread before you use your Vote Check. The worst thing that can happen is that we have multiple Private Eyes check the same vote. Once you use your ability, you are basically a green so it doesn't matter if you reveal your role. Related, check the thread before you make your vote check to ensure you aren't duplicating a check. 3.) Immediately post the Vote Check results to the thread. As mentioned in 2, once used you are green. Your death would only help the town at that point as it means that a paramedic or detective is not dying! Sidenotes: Following the above means that mafia can pretend to be PEs and "claim" a vote, keeping our PEs from checking and then spreading false information. This is possible, but a dumb trade as the information can be ignored once the false calimer is revealed and it leads to more scrutiny of the claimer. Detectives: (DE)1.) Use your abilities every day. Duh. 2.) Pay special attention to anyone who claims to be a PE. Paramedics:1.) After you stop a hit, always let your target know about it via PM. They are 100% confirmed townies as there are no vigilantes in this game and Mafia cannot send a hit against themselves. Veteran:1.) The only time you should use your extra vote is if the voting is close. Nght lives are far more important to you. General: If you are protected from a hit, DO NOT reveal your role to a medic who PMs you until some time has elapsed. As L showed in game 2, fake roleclaiming as a medic is a powerful tool as the Mafia know who they tried to hit and survived. The chances of them risking it are low as there are veterans in this game, but give it enough time for the "real" medic to pm you. ****EVERYONE VOTE**** PEs cannot check non-voters or abstains (Correct me if I am wrong here Chuiu) so if there are lots of inactive townie voters, then the mafia can simply not vote. If all the townies vote, the mafia is forced to as well lest they be picked apart by vote checks. Edit: Clarity. Private eye. Hmm, seems like a good idea but as you said there is nothing stopping mafia from faking a check. How about this, anyone that presents a vote check is lynched as soon as possible to confirm their legitimacy. Should stop mafia from faking. Detectives. Agreed. Paramedics. Agreed. Veterans. Agreed.
I thought about that but it really isn't worth it. We have very limited killing power this game as there are no vigilantes. We can lynch them if we have no other targets, but we are almost always going to have a better target. They are giving us a massive amount of information when they give a vote check. If they lie, they've handed themselves to us. As soon as the information contradicts what they've given us, it's a free kill. This will get more powerful as the game goes on, especially if that mafia had difficult clues.
We just need to tie each Vote check to the name of the person who gives it and constantly monitor how reliable the information is. Don't reveal your role based on this information until the vote check information is confirmed. (IE if someone claims that 0 mafia voted for a person, don't send your role to all of those voters until the claimer is confirmed to be clean)
One thing we cannot do is try to chain PEs via rolechecks after the first vote check. I tried working something out using this before my first post but it fails horribly to Mafia fake roleclaims. If Mafia fakes the first vote check, we lose every single vote check to failed guessed rolechecks!
DO NOT ROLECHECK.
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Hi all, gl hf everyone =)
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On February 28 2009 21:44 LTT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2009 21:22 BWdero wrote:On February 28 2009 20:50 LTT wrote:Based on the ruleset, here are some optimal plays that I've come up with. Private Eyes: (PE)1.) Don't use your rolecheck ability. Vote checks are far stronger and get more powerful as the game goes on. Rolechecks become far less useful. Attempting to use both isn't worth the risk as the only time you should use the rolecheck-guess is if you know the person's role 100%. If you already know, why use the rolecheck at all? (This system is just silly, Chuiu... ) 2.) Announce in the thread before you use your Vote Check. The worst thing that can happen is that we have multiple Private Eyes check the same vote. Once you use your ability, you are basically a green so it doesn't matter if you reveal your role. Related, check the thread before you make your vote check to ensure you aren't duplicating a check. 3.) Immediately post the Vote Check results to the thread. As mentioned in 2, once used you are green. Your death would only help the town at that point as it means that a paramedic or detective is not dying! Sidenotes: Following the above means that mafia can pretend to be PEs and "claim" a vote, keeping our PEs from checking and then spreading false information. This is possible, but a dumb trade as the information can be ignored once the false calimer is revealed and it leads to more scrutiny of the claimer. Detectives: (DE)1.) Use your abilities every day. Duh. 2.) Pay special attention to anyone who claims to be a PE. Paramedics:1.) After you stop a hit, always let your target know about it via PM. They are 100% confirmed townies as there are no vigilantes in this game and Mafia cannot send a hit against themselves. Veteran:1.) The only time you should use your extra vote is if the voting is close. Nght lives are far more important to you. General: If you are protected from a hit, DO NOT reveal your role to a medic who PMs you until some time has elapsed. As L showed in game 2, fake roleclaiming as a medic is a powerful tool as the Mafia know who they tried to hit and survived. The chances of them risking it are low as there are veterans in this game, but give it enough time for the "real" medic to pm you. ****EVERYONE VOTE**** PEs cannot check non-voters or abstains (Correct me if I am wrong here Chuiu) so if there are lots of inactive townie voters, then the mafia can simply not vote. If all the townies vote, the mafia is forced to as well lest they be picked apart by vote checks. Edit: Clarity. Private eye. Hmm, seems like a good idea but as you said there is nothing stopping mafia from faking a check. How about this, anyone that presents a vote check is lynched as soon as possible to confirm their legitimacy. Should stop mafia from faking. Detectives. Agreed. Paramedics. Agreed. Veterans. Agreed. I thought about that but it really isn't worth it. We have very limited killing power this game as there are no vigilantes. We can lynch them if we have no other targets, but we are almost always going to have a better target. They are giving us a massive amount of information when they give a vote check. If they lie, they've handed themselves to us. As soon as the information contradicts what they've given us, it's a free kill. This will get more powerful as the game goes on, especially if that mafia had difficult clues. We just need to tie each Vote check to the name of the person who gives it and constantly monitor how reliable the information is. Don't reveal your role based on this information until the vote check information is confirmed. (IE if someone claims that 0 mafia voted for a person, don't send your role to all of those voters until the claimer is confirmed to be clean) One thing we cannot do is try to chain PEs via rolechecks after the first vote check. I tried working something out using this before my first post but it fails horribly to Mafia fake roleclaims. If Mafia fakes the first vote check, we lose every single vote check to failed guessed rolechecks! DO NOT ROLECHECK.
Fair enough.
Now about which abilities to use. First of all, should we use one right now?
Double lynch is obviously not a good idea this early in the game so our choices are between overpower and sanctuary. I would like to save sanctuary for later when mafia have a better idea of who the blues are. That way we can be sure it is put to better use then if we were to use it now, when mafia are largely in the dark on who the blues are. The later we use overtime the less of an effect it will have. Since more and more blues will have died the later in the game. Using overtime now would minimize our losses on this first day since all medics could then cover two people. Then again being able to have a detective check two people for clues could prove crucial in later stages.
So if we use an ability today it should be overtime. However since all three abilities could prove gamechanging on later days I am reluctant to use one right now.
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Overtime wouldn't have any effect until Day 2, from the way I read it. Sanctuary is the only ability we can use that will affect Night 1.
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Ah yes you're right. Well in that case we shouldn't use an ability today.
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EPT
