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On May 12 2023 09:18 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:Show nested quote +On May 11 2023 19:34 MockHamill wrote:On May 11 2023 19:16 Charoisaur wrote:
StormGate is not going to be succesful. If there would be a market for RTS it would be reflected in sc2 viewer numbers which is the best RTS ever made and will ever exist.
StormGate at its highest point might touch current sc2 viewer counts but once the novelty wears off people will realize sc2 is better and switch back. StormGate is made by the same people that made SC2. They have even more experience now and have learned from mistakes (and what they did good) in SC2. There is zero risk that the game would be worse than SC2. That StormGate will be superior to SC2 is more or less a given. The real risk is that it will be too similar to SC2. I am not sure people will want to switch to just a better version of SC2. It need be different enough to feel like something completely new, while still feeling like a classic RTS. Ideally it would combine the responsiveness and micro depth of SC2 with the macro depth of AOE where macro is much more decision based and not just pure muscle memory. But I doubt it will happen. I think it will just be a better version of SC2 where mechanics decide 95% of the outcome. There are a few people who worked on Blizzard games working on Stormgate, it's far from the same people or the same team. Most of the lead devs behind SC2 like Dustin Browder, David Kim, even Rob Parto from SC1 who helped with design, aren't on Stormgate. The lead gameplay/multiplayer dev for Stormgate is TL's own monk who afaik worked on SC2 co-op which is great, but is far from the same team unfortunately. As we've seen with SC2 and other modern esports, it's pretty much a given that the game will need years of balance and design adjustments to become solid. The early years will be imbalanced and the gameplay will be broken in many aspects. And as we've seen with SC2 for example, often learning a lesson and addressing it in a future patch will still lead to other side effects and lessons that need to be learned, and more balance patches for that. If Stormgate is at all trying to be a little different from SC2, which it is, it will need to develop its own identity/gameplay which will take many lessons of their own, and a few years to patch it to become potentially a great game. They may have learned some lessons looking at SC2 and other games, but they're applying those lessons to a new game that isn't trying to just copy Starcraft, but be a mix of things they like about various RTS. I don't want to come off pessimistic, I just don't think the hype is too warranted right now. Even if you had the same exact team, that itself is already not enough to make it likely that the game would be great, especially not for a few years of further development and balance patches. IMO, the Stormgate team is less qualified and on a smaller budget and potentially inferior management to a triple A company like Blizzard, and since the game is also going to stray more away from SC2 than SC2 strayed from SC1, there is all the reasons to believe that the game when initially launched will be below where WoL was at on launch. If they do a good job, it's possible to be at around WoL or a little better, but not much. It may have higher potential than WoL did, but would take years of development and balancing to realize that potential. Whether the game becomes great will most likely hinge on whether there is enough continued interest in the game, for the Stormgate team to continue developing and balancing it for a few years to become solid. Regarding the OP's topic, im very happy and impressed that crowdfunding for GSL has been so successful, They're at $200k per year already, and that means that the total prize pool would be already higher than it was in 2022. Before, GSL winners were winning like $30k for 1st place, now it'll be $30-40k at this rate. (Though i hope they focus on giving enough to the people in Ro16 and try to re-expand to having 4 tournies a year or doing Ro24 or such). So, if the crowdfunding continues and AfreecaTV can sustain their own operational costs, then SC2 might be able to continue like this for a few more years. But the lack of new blood is the main issue in terms of no interesting storylines, and seeing the same players/styles over and over. For that we need to un-shrink the scene so that GSL can support Ro24 for example.
I think the military returnees make for very interesting storylines. herO coming back so strong while revolutionizing PvZ was amazing and now we have Stats/Inno/TY and in a few years maybe Rogue/Zest/Trap coming back.
If there remains enough incentive for them to stick with starcraft I think the storylines will be amazing
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I don't think the scene will remain even at this stage regardless of Stormgate's success
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Part of me also wonders how the best protosses will do in a game where they aren't consistently held back by absurd matchups.
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This is what happens when devs don't give out any info about their game.
People are hyping this thing way, way beyond any reasonable expectation.
There's almost no good information about the game, just a few screenshots. If you check the SG Reddit, it's basically 90% discussions about other stuff/games rather than SG discusion. The information is that sparse.
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Did not vote, cause I dont really know what storgate is. There are too many "what ifs" for me. Too many unknown parameters.
However, i can say that i WISH for a great game that will be in resemblance of sc2 and requires true skill to become the best in as well as entertaining for plebs like me to play and to enjoy watching. What i fear is a game that is not balanced (less than what sc2 is now) and has too many elements of "luck" involved. It would be amazing with a game that is more or less linear when it comes to skill correlated to "success". If SG is not that, then i wish the sc2 scene will dominate completely over SG.
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On May 12 2023 18:02 jinjin5000 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 11 2023 18:26 atlsaas wrote:On May 11 2023 16:06 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
That depends entirely on how good StormGate is. There is an awful lot of hype around the game, but we really don't know anything about it except that it has a great pedigree. I want to be excited about StormGate, too, and I really hope it's the next great RTS and gives the scene new vitality, but I also remember how excited I was about the steaming turd that Guardians of Atlas turned out to be.
Let's hold off on declaring the death of SC2 and the rise of its successor until there is an actual game to discuss. There is Hype? Where? There are a couple of paid Starcraft 2 personality creating "HYPE HYPE HYPE". And thats pretty much it A quick reminder of whats actually popular ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/iyiTrlM.png) Thats the same generation spilling into League of Legends, Valorant. The game is never gonna appeal to those. The game is going to fail. Just like Company of Heroes 3. Even the new whatever Warhammer fails to reach broad popularity ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/h63jP3V.png) Audience is there and existing. Just that stormgate needs to be good.
Surely the Korean Brood War community is gonna be the pillar of Stormgate
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I think stormgate is overhyped by many that just want a new game and a new RTS. Not even saying it will be a bad game or that it won't do okay for a little while, but the meta will become boring very quickly, it won't be a factor in why SC2 will die out a bit. It won't have the strong tournament scene at least not to the degree that, that would kill SC2 either. SC2 will die because of activision-blizz more than anything else.
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On May 14 2023 02:32 NoobSkills wrote:
I think stormgate is overhyped by many that just want a new game and a new RTS. Not even saying it will be a bad game or that it won't do okay for a little while, but the meta will become boring very quickly, it won't be a factor in why SC2 will die out a bit. It won't have the strong tournament scene at least not to the degree that, that would kill SC2 either. SC2 will die because of activision-blizz more than anything else.
What did activision-blizz do? And while you are at it, post what other companies have done with RTS
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SC2 has had a really good run - 13 years and counting - but has kinda been on life support in Korea for a while and most of the hype storylines have played out.
I am excited for a new game and a new chapter.
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SG is a couple of screenshots, a cinematic, and a lot of promises. Whether it has any long term impact isn't a question that can be answered right now, because it doesn't exist in any meaningful way yet.
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No one can say for sure since the game hasn't come out, but I think its release will be bad for all other RTS games except for maybe Brood War. Wether it's good or bad, some viewers and players will move over which will be a reduction of people in other RTS games.
As for SC2, I think it will continue to dwindle. I think the Patreon funding is great for now but I don't think it will last, at least not by the amount it's currently being supported. By just reading some comments in the GSL vods and some on TL you can tell people are way less interested in this GSL than previous ones, they think the rewards are not enough and people just prefer the other big tournament since it has foreigners and a bigger prize pool I believe. So with StormGate coming out SC2 scene should be shrinking, maybe some of the pros will move to StormGate but I believe some will move towards Brood War since they already are somewhat skilled in it and it's safer financially.
And StormGate still isn't guaranteed to be successful. By not having Dustin Browder and David Kim it would probably be a better game than SC2 but even still funding should be way smaller and the timing for its release will likely not push it as strong as the timing for SC2 did (which success rode on the coattails of Brood War and also the rise of the streaming and the smartphone eras). SC2 also didn't have much competition in the esports scene when it came out, so I think StormGate success as an esport is unlikely.
I still would like to try it out when it comes out and hopefully it will be good.
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On May 11 2023 19:16 Charoisaur wrote:
StormGate is not going to be succesful. If there would be a market for RTS it would be reflected in sc2 viewer numbers which is the best RTS ever made and will ever exist.
StormGate at its highest point might touch current sc2 viewer counts but once the novelty wears off people will realize sc2 is better and switch back.
Agreed, also you have to clearly see that Frost Giant marketing & community management has been carefully nurturing the hype within the SC2 community in particular as undoubtedly the greatest influx of players will come from SC2, given the whole Blizzard dev backgrounds etc..
From an artistic perspective I'm not sold on the game, reminds me a lot of Battlerite and while this was a really great little game the art direction left a lot to be desired, nowadays this reduced cartoonish style feels just so generic and uninspired, not every esports title needs to look like Fortnite and LoL had a threesome with Zelda BOTW.
Another aspect why I'm worried about the longterm sustainability (let alone success) is that they have to create new IP from scratch and what they showed until now isn't... memorable or intriguing to me. That might not be needed for the competitive multiplayer side, but IIRC ~50% of players only ever touch the campaign anyway, so this kinda needs to be really good to get people interested.
IMHO SC2 could get away with a mediocre story as the IP was already well-established and the mission design was still top-notch.
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No matter what happens it's going to accelerate the death of sc2. Even if the game is bad, the initial wave of marketing-funded tournaments on release would likely siphon off a decent chunk of sc2 pros trying to cash in, after which both games would fade out.
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United States33592 Posts
Obviously this is highly dependent on what you mean by "sustainable," but if you look at the history of WarCraft 3 or fighting games in the 2000's (before many of the publishers decided to support competitive scenes), I think it's very likely that SC2 will retain some limited-size competitive scene no matter the circumstances.
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On May 11 2023 19:34 MockHamill wrote:
StormGate is made by the same people that made SC2.
This is a terrible thing. SC2 was pretty good game design wise at the start, a few major flaws that they promptly turned into many major flaws in HOTS (Swarm Hosts, Mothership Core, Photon Overcharge, etc...) and beyond which led to people moving away from the game. There is a direct correlation between the quality of the game design and the number of players so I have no faith StormGate will be good.
Also, there is a third scenario: StormGate is kind of okay and some people play it while some still play SC2, and some play both.
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I think the general attitude around SC2 dying the moment Stormgate releases is really a bad idea to roll with. If enough people believe that and then Stormgate turns out to have been bad, you're going to have killed SC2 and then have no replacement.
I just operate under the assumption Stormgate will flop spectacularly and I'll have to stick with SC2 forever, and if that's not the case I will be pleasantly surprised. Don't let complacency be the end of the structure supporting SC2, however small it has become since the intern took over
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On May 16 2023 01:59 BronzeKnee wrote:Show nested quote +On May 11 2023 19:34 MockHamill wrote:
StormGate is made by the same people that made SC2.
This is a terrible thing. SC2 was pretty good game design wise at the start, a few major flaws that they promptly turned into many major flaws in HOTS (Swarm Hosts, Mothership Core, Photon Overcharge, etc...) and beyond which led to people moving away from the game. There is a direct correlation between the quality of the game design and the number of players so I have no faith StormGate will be good. Also, there is a third scenario: StormGate is kind of okay and some people play it while some still play SC2, and some play both.
They mostly just mean the back-end... The only guy in charge of balance/unit design was for co-op. Which people loved.
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Historically speaking, the RTS esport scene is basically Blizzard esport scene. It only revolves around Warcraft and Starcraft (AoE has a cult following, especially in China but not a global esport organized professionally). The fact that sc2 is dying and its future have little to do with Storm Gate being released.
The future of sc2 is sc3, if the star aligns for that to happen.
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I really wish stormgate's art design didn't have that foam rubber cosplay motif that warcraft has.
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On May 17 2023 13:43 Arceus wrote:
Historically speaking, the RTS esport scene is basically Blizzard esport scene. It only revolves around Warcraft and Starcraft (AoE has a cult following, especially in China but not a global esport organized professionally). The fact that sc2 is dying and its future have little to do with Storm Gate being released.
The future of sc2 is sc3, if the star aligns for that to happen.
Why would we need a StarCraft 3? We have Frost Giant, David Kim's company, possibly something with Mike Morhaime as well. The hype is not there anymore. For the ip or for rts. That's why Blizzard is creating a whole new IP with Odyssey and did the same with Overwatch. Because with a new IP, you have the opportunity to catch everyone. While StarCraft has retained some audience, the number has only dwindled over the years. There are people who have already written off StarCraft or have no interest in trying it. For these people, it is unlikely they would care much for a StarCraft 3. When it comes to forming a new IP, Blizzard knows how to make characters and worlds people love. For all the shit overwatch got, people still loved the universe. Same with the w
Warcraft, Diablo and StarCraft too. So it's not much of a heightened risk to start an IP from scratch when they have proven success in the department. It holds a lot more potential than to invest in a dying brand. Furthermore It is unclear what improvements would even need to be made in a sequel, especially after StormGate. Add a few units? Some graphic fidelity? I don't think it would have the kind of AAA success Blizzard is after as a publicly traded company.
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EPT
