2022 GSL Code S Season 2 - Round of 10

by Wax

DreamHack Valencia has brought about a scheduling change for the Code S Round of 10 with the first two days set to be played consecutively. Day 1 of Group A will be played at its normal time and date of Monday, Jun 27 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00), while day 1 of Group B follows on the next day of Tuesday, Jun 28 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00).


There's also been a slight change in the map pool, with Golden Wall being switched out for Cosmic Sapphire. It is yet to be seen if GSL will eventually switch entirely to the new competitive map pool that is being used at DreamHack Valencia.

Group A - Day 1 Preview: Maru, herO, Zoun, DongRaeGu, soO

Start time: Monday, Jun 27 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Match #1: Maru vs herO

The opening match of the group is between two title contenders who were gravely disappointing last season. Both players were drawn into last season's RO10 group of death alongside Dark, Creator, and DongRaeGu, and both were shockingly eliminated with 1-3 records.

For Maru, I can easily accept it as a blip. In contrast to his reputation as a perennial title contender, Maru hasn't been THE most consistent player—he's suffered a handful of group stage eliminations in the GSL over the last few years. But he usually makes you forget that such an embarrassing event ever happened, going on to put in a great performance in the next tournament.

herO's situation is different. Toward the end of 2021 and in early 2022, online tournaments results and Aligulac.com indicators pointed to herO as a potential championship-caliber player. However, he disappointed enormously at IEM Katowice where he was eliminated in the RO36, which he followed with another underwhelming showing in Code S Season 1. At this point, there's reason to be concerned that he's the successor to the old 'online-Cure'—a player who can't convert his minor tournament prowess into major tournament results.

If Aligulac is to be believed, these two players are very evenly matched with Maru having a slight 53:47 advantage. Their match in last season's RO10 was also fairly close, with Maru winning by a 2-1 score. I'm going to have to give Maru the edge, however, as I give him a huge advantage if he can force the games to go late. He beat herO pretty convincingly in a half-map split scenario last time around, and did the same against Creator in this season's RO20. If Maru can be patient on defense and wait for herO to be wasteful with his Gateway units (which he is wont to do), victory should be his for the taking.

Prediction: Maru 2 - 1 herO

Match #2: Zoun vs DongRaeGu

DongRaeGu has been the most confoundingly clutch player of 2022, coming up with a number of huge upsets in major tournaments. His most notable heist was stealing both a 2-0 and 2-1 victory off Serral at DreamHack: Last Chance, eliminating the future World Champion from the group stage. Last Season's Code S run was also a big surprise, as he defeated both Maru and herO to advance from the RO10 and into the playoffs. Yet, DongRaeGu's overall performances in smaller cups and tournaments is rather pedestrian, and he's only ranked #25 in the world on Aligulac.com. He's basically the reverse-herO, showing that there's a serious difference between major and minor tournaments that the numbers don't always capture (or maybe it's just crazy variance).

On the other hand, Zoun was an unfortunate casualty of being put in a tough RO20 group with ByuN and eventual champion Rogue last season, but this season he managed to take down perhaps an even stronger ZvP player in Dark to top his RO20 group. This is pretty concerning for DongRaeGu, whose ZvP has been nitpicked quite a bit in past TL.net previews. I have to admit he's become a lot more solid in the match-up, especially in making himself less susceptible to harassment and all-ins. If Zoun plays too aggressively in the early/mid-game and fails to get much damage done, then he could easily be swept aside by DRG's preferred Muta-based play.

However, Zoun has also become a solid late game player, and he's dangerous if he gets away with greedy, tech-oriented openers. He actually reminds me of the recently retired Zest at times—both of them are somewhat lacking in the finesse department, but are just really good at assembling deathballs with perfect unit ratios that can A-move through most Zergs.

Overall, I like Zoun just a little bit better here. If he has DRG scouted well enough, he should be able to play a more conservative style and beat him in longer games.

Prediction: Zoun 2 - 1 DongRaeGu

Match #3: Maru vs soO

For once, the feel-good story is playing out the way fans want. Not only did soO directly qualify for Code S after returning from military service, but he's also made it to the RO10 in his first try as well. When you add in some clutch performances for Kwangdong Freecs in the WTL, things have basically been perfect for a player who's barely three months into his comeback run.

For the most part, soO has leaned on his old strengths in his return. He uses his solid early game defense and great macro fundamentals to build giant Lair-tech armies, which he then uses to smash his opponent by sheer strength of numbers. That's been a reliable approach to Zerg for time immemorial, and it's led many of them to great success.

On the other hand, I haven't seen any indication that soO has overcome his greatest weakness: late game play. While soO is great at taking enormous economy and bank leads in the mid-game, he has trouble finishing opponents off if they can stabilize against the Zerg attack and turtle up. It's actually some of soO's games against Maru that are most demonstrative of this weakness, like this GSL vs. The World game where he blows a 6000 resource bank lead against Maru's defense.

Thus, I have to think this match is pretty heavily leaning in Maru's favor. Not only does he have the late game in his pocket, but he's also favored in the early and mid-game against a still-recovering soO.

Prediction: Maru 2 - 0 soO

Match #4: Zoun vs herO

While Zoun looked very solid in his PvZ matches in the RO20, it papered over the fact that he's a player with very lop-sided match-up strengths. Going by Aligulac rating, Zoun's PvP is a few hundred points beneath his PvZ and PvT. Maybe the better way to illustrate it would be to mention his specific rank and the players close to him in the standings. Zoun is the 6th ranked PvT player, flanked by ShoWTimE and Astrea in the standings. He's #9 in PvZ with Classic and Neeb around him. But he's only #13 in PvP, sandwiched by Strange and Gerald.

On the other hand, herO is the #2 PvP player on Aligulac, and he was actually #1 a few weeks ago before MaxPax reclaimed the top spot. Personally, I think herO's aggressive, 'just go kill him' style offers him the least comparative advantage in PvP, where everyone tends to be more aggressive than in the other match-ups. But a small advantage is still an advantage, and he definitely gets to flash that killer instinct fairly often with a decisive kill-move.

Besides general game sense and feeling for attack timings, I think herO has a pretty big micro advantage against Zoun as well. Similar to Creator, Zoun's micro and multitasking can be shaky in chaotic situations, while herO is very good at staying on top of things. In those hectic, double-proxy scenarios we often see in this match-up, I'd give herO a major advantage.

Prediction: herO 2 - 0 Zoun

Match #5: DongRaeGu vs soO

Speaking of players with lopsided strengths according to Aligulac, DongRaeGu might be the most amusing case. Like Zoun, the stats website says his ability in the mirror lags behind other two match-ups: He's #10 in ZvP, #6 in ZvT, and #12 in ZvZ. However, as mentioned above, DRG is one of the most "f*** Aligulac" player of 2022. He was given less than a 20% chance to beat Serral back at DHM: Last Chance, and he ended up winning twice. And while this is a much smaller upset in terms of probability, DRG also recently stole a 1-1 tie against Reynor (#2 ranked ZvZ player) in a World Team League match.

Hence, while soO is a mild favorite with a 60% chance to win according to Aligulac, I'm tempted to just throw that number in the garbage. In fact, DongRaeGu actually beat soO ZvZ earlier this year, taking him down 2-0 in the qualifiers. In a few months, soO could easily be one of the top ZvZ players in the world, since 'make a ton of Roaches and Ravagers in the mid-game' really suits his skill set. But for now, I see this match as being quite even, and I'll only give soO the edge based on sentimentality.

Prediction: soO 2 - 1 DongRaeGu

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