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Why anytime there is a discussion about protoss underperforming at the top level someone brings this useless stat? Aligulac balance report is based on every recorded match result, wast majority of which are games played between amateur or semi-pro players.
The actually useful stat in that case on the other hand gets conviniently ignored. I'm talking about leading/lagging stat which takes into account performance of the top 5 players of each race: http://aligulac.com/periods/
As you can easily see, the data speaks for itself.
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On November 14 2021 23:33 TheWildShooter wrote:Why anytime there is a discussion about protoss underperforming at the top level someone brings this useless stat? Aligulac balance report is based on every recorded match result, wast majority of which are games played between amateur or semi-pro players. The actually useful stat in that case on the other hand gets conviniently ignored. I'm talking about leading/lagging stat which takes into account performance of the top 5 players of each race: http://aligulac.com/periods/As you can easily see, the data speaks for itself.
Seems to coincide with protoss underperforming in tier 1 tournament. They've been the lagging race since 2018 nonstop. I wish the game was balanced around top players so that I can see each race taking about 1/3 of trophies in the end.
As for why protoss does well in low tier tournament, my guess is that protoss is strong in a matchup where games are less prepared and uses fewer counter builds. Or it could simply mean at lower levels (which would be the case if top players prepare less than usual) protoss is strong.
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As for why protoss does well in low tier tournament, my guess is that protoss is strong in a matchup where games are less prepared and uses fewer counter builds. Or it could simply mean at lower levels (which would be the case if top players prepare less than usual) protoss is strong.
The problem here is that a lot of the time these "tier 2" tournaments have the same players. Trap beats Dark 3-1 in a tier 2 tournament and it doesn't count, but Trap loses to Dark 1-4 and "only" comes in second at the GSL, and it's proof Protoss is underpowered at the top level.
The thing to remember about analyzing statistics from the highest level of play is that the sample sizes are outrageously low--we don't have even 10 players total that can play at Serral's level consistently.
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On November 15 2021 00:27 DaveyJosiah wrote:Show nested quote +As for why protoss does well in low tier tournament, my guess is that protoss is strong in a matchup where games are less prepared and uses fewer counter builds. Or it could simply mean at lower levels (which would be the case if top players prepare less than usual) protoss is strong. The problem here is that a lot of the time these "tier 2" tournaments have the same players. Trap beats Dark 3-1 in a tier 2 tournament and it doesn't count, but Trap loses to Dark 1-4 and "only" comes in second at the GSL, and it's proof Protoss is underpowered at the top level. The thing to remember about analyzing statistics from the highest level of play is that the sample sizes are outrageously low--we don't have even 10 players total that can play at Serral's level consistently.
What a low sample size does is it increases volatility. You have a larger chance of beating a superior player in one game than you do in ten games.
Here we have a situation where there is no volatility at all despite the small sample size. The five best protoss underperform consistently since 2018 against the best five zergs or terrans. There is very little statistical merit to the idea that if we roll 36 more months suddenly protoss will stop underperforming and get back to even. That is not what the data trend indicates.
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On November 15 2021 00:50 Nebuchad wrote:
What a low sample size does is it increases volatility. You have a larger chance of beating a superior player in one game than you do in ten games.
Here we have a situation where there is no volatility at all despite the small sample size. The five best protoss underperform consistently since 2018 against the best five zergs or terrans. There is very little statistical merit to the idea that if we roll 36 more months suddenly protoss will stop underperforming and get back to even. That is not what the data trend indicates.
I'm not talking about sample size of games played, I'm talking about the number of players. When we look at a tiny pool of players (top 5 of each race), there will be a great deal of variance in our estimate of race balance. This becomes especially relevant when we note that the top 5 over the course of the last 3 years has seen very little change. It's also problematic insofar as their is no a priori meaning to "top 5" that makes it more relevant than "top 2" or "top 16".
You can actually see how much variance is caused by this low sample size by directly looking at the performance of the individual players. Between the end of last year and the present, out of the Top 5 Protoss players, Stats left for military service, and Trap is the only player whose rank and MMR as calculated by Aligulac depreciated. The other three players--showtime, parting, and zest--all improved in MMR. Showtime and Parting maintained their exact same rank in the top players, 13th and 16th, and Zest improved from rank 11 to 7. Yet during this same time period, Protoss Top 5 went from lagging 5% to lagging 17%. This 12% change is accounted for entirely from the loss of Stats and the relative underperformance of a single player, Trap.
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In this case you're just saying that the best protoss happen to suck at the game in comparison to the best zergs and terrans, and that is fine, I acknowledge that this is entirely a possibility, and if that is the case it makes sense that they don't win as many tournaments as the other races. But then we don't need to bring any statistical analysis into it, and in the context of this thread it doesn't change much since either way I don't see any reason for me to continue watching the game.
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On November 15 2021 01:32 Nebuchad wrote:
In this case you're just saying that the best protoss happen to suck at the game in comparison to the best zergs and terrans, and that is fine, I acknowledge that this is entirely a possibility, and if that is the case it makes sense that they don't win as many tournaments as the other races. But then we don't need to bring any statistical analysis into it, and in the context of this thread it doesn't change much since either way I don't see any reason for me to continue watching the game.
I don't understand the hyperbole. Protoss pros don't "suck", they slightly underperform. They take second place in premier tournaments, beating many former champions, and they win so-called "tier 2" tournaments (where the champions of "tier 1" tournaments lose to them), and they show up in droves in the top-8. If a single new player like MaxPax turns out to be really good, it would be enough to push Protoss out of the slump, because we have a very small pool of top players and very few new people entering over the years.
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Okay so since Poopi isn't answering maybe you'll be the one taking me on on the bet? If a protoss doesn't win Katowice you give me 50$, if a protoss wins Katowice I give you 500$.
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France11412 Posts
On November 15 2021 01:39 Nebuchad wrote:
Okay so since Poopi isn't answering maybe you'll be the one taking me on on the bet? If a protoss doesn't win Katowice you give me 50$, if a protoss wins Katowice I give you 500$.
I don’t take bets, and taking such a weird bet would be foolish given that the best performing protoss is going to military service supposedly before Katowice (Zest). Do you want to bet for free that Protoss will become the least earning race in 2021 though? Because if they keep being the most winning race $ wise I fail to see how their situation is as terrible as you say.
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Italy12232 Posts
I would be interested to see what the Protoss win rate is as a function of series duration.I wouldn't be surprised if it went from being pretty good in Bo3s (we can always open the Great Book in a pinch), to average in Bo5s, to pretty crap in Bo7s.
In general, I feel like if you take a given map Protoss is kind of always fine (regardless of player skill), but when you add the extra layer of players figuring out each other's style, Protoss becomes more exploitable than either Terran or Zerg. If that were true, that would easily explain why Protoss does so well in ladder (it's all an isolated Bo1), can actually get to the end of tournaments more or less, but then just consistently falls apart in finals.
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On November 15 2021 01:44 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2021 01:39 Nebuchad wrote:
Okay so since Poopi isn't answering maybe you'll be the one taking me on on the bet? If a protoss doesn't win Katowice you give me 50$, if a protoss wins Katowice I give you 500$. I don’t take bets, and taking such a weird bet would be foolish given that the best performing protoss is going to military service supposedly before Katowice (Zest). Do you want to bet for free that Protoss will become the least earning race in 2021 though? Because if they keep being the most winning race $ wise I fail to see how their situation is as terrible as you say.
No I don't want to bet this because I don't know how much money protoss players will win in 2021. I do know that we aren't winning Katowice though. I like to bet when I'm going to win rather than when I don't know what will happen lol. The bet I offered was probably slightly ev- for me since a protoss wins Katowice something like 1 in 8 times I would imagine, but that doesn't really matter.
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I don't want to bet. I said Protoss players underperform, and I said that Trap (their best player for a while) in particular has gotten a little worse. My point is about race balance. If instead of looking at the single best player who wins the tournament, we looked at the top 16, top 8, and top 4, do you think Protoss will be underrepresented?
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On November 15 2021 01:49 DaveyJosiah wrote:
I don't want to bet. I said Protoss players underperform, and I said that Trap (their best player for a while) in particular has gotten a little worse. My point is about race balance. If instead of looking at the single best player who wins the tournament, we looked at the top 16, top 8, and top 4, do you think Protoss will be underrepresented?
Do you think we enjoy watching a bunch of protoss qualify for the Ro32 of stuff and then lose 80% of the games because the other people are better than them?
Also you said that protoss players "slightly underperform" and I gave you 10 to 1 on a 2 to 1 situation lol
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On November 15 2021 01:52 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2021 01:49 DaveyJosiah wrote:
I don't want to bet. I said Protoss players underperform, and I said that Trap (their best player for a while) in particular has gotten a little worse. My point is about race balance. If instead of looking at the single best player who wins the tournament, we looked at the top 16, top 8, and top 4, do you think Protoss will be underrepresented? Do you think we enjoy watching a bunch of protoss qualify for the Ro32 of stuff and then lose 80% of the games because the other people are better than them?
They don't really underperform at any level of play though. They win tier 2 tournaments that have the same players as tier 1 tournaments. This is why I don't understand why you want to make it into a balance problem when they underperform only at one specific stage (tier 1 tournament finals). It indicates more a mental problem from the players, bad luck, etc.
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On November 15 2021 01:52 Nebuchad wrote:
Do you think we enjoy watching a bunch of protoss qualify for the Ro32 of stuff and then lose 80% of the games because the other people are better than them?
Also you said that protoss players "slightly underperform" and I gave you 10 to 1 on a 2 to 1 situation lol
Where does this 80% number come from? Look at the bracket for the last GSL.
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On November 15 2021 02:00 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2021 01:52 Nebuchad wrote:On November 15 2021 01:49 DaveyJosiah wrote:
I don't want to bet. I said Protoss players underperform, and I said that Trap (their best player for a while) in particular has gotten a little worse. My point is about race balance. If instead of looking at the single best player who wins the tournament, we looked at the top 16, top 8, and top 4, do you think Protoss will be underrepresented? Do you think we enjoy watching a bunch of protoss qualify for the Ro32 of stuff and then lose 80% of the games because the other people are better than them? They don't really underperform at any level of play though. They win tier 2 tournaments that have the same players as tier 1 tournaments. This is why I don't understand why you want to make it into a balance problem when they underperform only at one specific stage (tier 1 tournament finals). It indicates more a mental problem from the players, bad luck, etc.
I do not want to make this into a balance problem. I acknowledge that it's very possible that your players are just better.
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I don't think that the status of Protoss will improve any time soon. Zest going to military will be the nail in the coffin. Only Trap may occasionally appear in the Global Finals Playoff or IEM quarterfinals.
My opinion is that there are two reasons why Protoss hasn't win one of the biggest tournaments in years (by the way, those are a regular GSL, a dreamhack, WESG or IEM Katowice, no matter what Liquipedía says):
- "Bad luck"
- ZvP
The Bad Luck is somewhat real, but is also related to how unforgiving the race is to errors. Top pros make few errors, but those few have worse consequences if you are Protoss. In lower levels, the number of errors is higher for all races and that equals the field.
ZvP has been in a terrible status for years, and it probably still is. Currently there is no strong ground composition for Protoss, and a-move air compositions are lame. They have very low micro potential and top zergs can always counter them with excellent macro and good micro. Meanwhille, a-move is so powerful below pro level that GM is empty of Zergs.
The sensibility to errors cannot be changed, it is in the design of the race. ZvP could be patched to return to viable robo or twilight compisitions, but I don't hold my breath...even if it happens, once Trap wins a couple of majors the community will start shouting Protoss Imba again and the nerfs will come again.
Meanwhile yes, I watch less the big tornaments if there are no P left, and that happens often. You can say "but Protoss still wins a lot of money in lesser tournaments" but nobody really (emotionally) cares about those. Sadly I predict P fans abandoning watching SC2 in the future, more and more.
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In the last year, Trap has won TSL 7, Next S1, 2021 GSL Super Tournament 1, DH Last Chance 2021, 2021 GSL Super Tournament 2, 2020 GSL Super Tournament 2, and Next 2020 Winter. That’s 7 prestigious tournaments that Trap has won.
And TSL 7, DH Last Chance 2021, 2021 GSL Super Tournament 2, 2020 GSL Super Tournament 2, were widely watched by the SC2 community.
Also, Protoss is killing EU GM ladder. 50% of EU GM is Protoss now, and EU ESL Cups usually have 50% Protoss, while the rest are Terran and Zerg. That's not good for upcoming Terran and Zerg players in the EU.
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The design of the race was garbage from the start (warping at the start, hero unit like mothership, gateway units are garbage in late game etc). The game is fun and interesting when there is a lot of interaction between players. When there is a interaction in tvz players can choose to engage or to retreat (medivac, zergling running away on creep) and there are margin (small at the pro level, maybe too small in fact) for errors (trading worse, failed run by) that allow multiple engagements even if someone make mistakes. I see none of that in P v Z the protoss are not allowed to loose units besides zealots so they camp hoping to reach carreirs stage (the least interesting stage is always T3 and flying units in all matchups compared to the early / mid game).
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Its simple, just ask Maru to switch race to Protoss, thats your hope. The man literally fight Lurker Lingbane with Bio Mines, theres nothing else he cannot do.
On a serious note, I think its coming down to PvZ and how top Protoss seems to grossly under-perform at that matchup in the Grand Final series. We have seen Protoss taken series off Serral/Reynor/Rogue/Dark before, but they just cant re-produce that in the most important match. Probably a mental thing, and how Zerg players are just more prepared for Bo7 and the Protoss ran out of trick.
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EPT
