On April 22 2021 10:21 warnull wrote: I think Hyperion's aligulac rating is inaccurate. Hyperion is 5700-5800 on KR, so his aligulac should be ~1800, based on other players with similar MMR. That means the MMR gap with Reynor is closer to ~1300 than 2000, which while still huge, does it make it the biggest upset in history.
I mean Aligulac can only go off tournament results, to some degree. Alas not all tournaments are equal and there’s pretty big differences in regions and how often the best from each play.
I mean they don’t have a huge amount of games logged but it’s not nothing either. And they haven’t done amazingly well. Who are the similar players you’re cross-referencing with their MMR here?
5800 isn’t anything to scoff at on Kr by any means, but I mean you can’t extrapolate that into tournament play, it’s a different environment. It says they’re comparable to other players in that range playing a lot of games vs a rotating wheel of opponents, but playing series against known opponents is a different kettle of fish.
Intuitively though, as much as I did love the OP’s research I guess I think the ‘biggest’ upset has to have real stakes on it too. Cool thread though and some fun old memories appeared too!
Hmm I think MMR is a much more accurate representation of the skill-level than aligulac rating though as aligulac rating only looks at a small subset of games vs a specific set of players (especially for lower ranked players who probably aren't as active and if they are possibly get stomped a lot by superior players). If his MMR is close to other players with ~1800 aligulac rating than I'm sure that's a much more accurate rating for his skill level.
On April 22 2021 02:34 Musicus wrote: Nice work and very interesting post, thanks!
Personally I still consider Sjow vs Life one of the biggest upsets ever, considering it was DH offline main stage match in the ro8.
Life was probably hungover or something, but still :D.
Sjow was still a way more established player than Hyperion or Meomaika and the hellbats were freaking op while Life was entering a phase of relative slump.
On April 22 2021 20:39 dbRic1203 wrote: MaxPax played Terran vs Trifax. (According to him) The game was appearently casted by Rotterdam, so should go to the offrace section
Oh yeah I see the VOD. I'll update it. Aligulac (and Liquipedia) need updating too.
On April 21 2021 19:32 swarminfestor wrote: Most Chinese players like Hyperion, Meomaika, TIME, Firefly did has some interesting builds to counter the higher ranked opponents.
Meomaika aint Chineae.
As per the thread. Some classic upset that i've watched was sjow vs life
It’s a long time ago, I might be remembering it wrongly, so I’m open to correction.
For me what made that such a staggering upset was the games were relatively standard and Sjow didn’t just cheese our Life with a couple of weird builds.
Also at a LAN event too!
I watched the series for the first time after the VOD was linked in this thread. It‘s a great match. The audience is really into it when game 3 turns into a drawn-out macro battle in which sjow is in a winning position twice, but unable to close out the match, then at the brink of defeat, only to pull off an extremely close win.
It‘s unfortunate this is a Life match. We can‘t be sure this wasn‘t matchfixing.
On April 21 2021 18:29 NimzoBoe wrote: Look mom, im famous! Can confirm that my game against Hurricane was a build order win, but in my head im better than Hurricane and by extension better than everyone he ever beat. Replay here: https://drop.sc/replay/18818153
Dude! You're selling yourself short. This may have been a brief game, but still a finely executed one on your part. Thanks for sharing!
P.S. Hurricane once beat Serral in a Best of 3, so by extension, you know...
What a heck of a compilation! I also didn't know Hyperion is East Asian (Chinese). Nice. Seriously signature win for him as he is now embedded into SC2 history.
On April 21 2021 18:29 NimzoBoe wrote: Look mom, im famous! Can confirm that my game against Hurricane was a build order win, but in my head im better than Hurricane and by extension better than everyone he ever beat. Replay here: https://drop.sc/replay/18818153
Dude! You're selling yourself short. This may have been a brief game, but still a finely executed one on your part. Thanks for sharing!
P.S. Hurricane once beat Serral in a Best of 3, so by extension, you know...
And Serral beat Reynor a bunch of time, when are we getting Nimzo vs Hyperion for the world championship?
On April 22 2021 10:21 warnull wrote: I think Hyperion's aligulac rating is inaccurate. Hyperion is 5700-5800 on KR, so his aligulac should be ~1800, based on other players with similar MMR. That means the MMR gap with Reynor is closer to ~1300 than 2000, which while still huge, does it make it the biggest upset in history.
I mean Aligulac can only go off tournament results, to some degree. Alas not all tournaments are equal and there’s pretty big differences in regions and how often the best from each play.
I mean they don’t have a huge amount of games logged but it’s not nothing either. And they haven’t done amazingly well. Who are the similar players you’re cross-referencing with their MMR here?
5800 isn’t anything to scoff at on Kr by any means, but I mean you can’t extrapolate that into tournament play, it’s a different environment. It says they’re comparable to other players in that range playing a lot of games vs a rotating wheel of opponents, but playing series against known opponents is a different kettle of fish.
Intuitively though, as much as I did love the OP’s research I guess I think the ‘biggest’ upset has to have real stakes on it too. Cool thread though and some fun old memories appeared too!
Hmm I think MMR is a much more accurate representation of the skill-level than aligulac rating though as aligulac rating only looks at a small subset of games vs a specific set of players (especially for lower ranked players who probably aren't as active and if they are possibly get stomped a lot by superior players). If his MMR is close to other players with ~1800 aligulac rating than I'm sure that's a much more accurate rating for his skill level.
Tournaments don’t measure pure Starcraft skill, although it’s certainly a big part of it. Big test of nerves, prep may be a factor etc.
Yeah that’s a reasonable estimation of level, but we do hear about players who are ladder monsters and just can’t get over the line in tournament play.
I wonder what moments of insane skill level have been played on ladder over the years that we’ll never get to see.
Life was probably hungover or something, but still :D.
Sjow was still a way more established player than Hyperion or Meomaika and the hellbats were freaking op while Life was entering a phase of relative slump.
Rewatching this game, Sjows macro is straight to master3/diamond 1. His micro could still perhaps GM today although I think there are so many more nuances to micro in todays meta than what was displayed in that series..
This patch wasnt Hellbats being OP though. Hellbats being op was when you could have 4 of them in a medivac. This was more the meta where zergs just hadnt learned to play properly against MMMM yet in terms of when to drone (and not to build roaches). A couple of months later the matchup stabilized (and then mines got nerfed and it got zerg favored, then mines got unnerfed 6 months later and the MU was fine for rest of HOTS).
I think Sjow beating Life in terms of upsets potential would be like if uThermal beat Dark today.
Life was probably hungover or something, but still :D.
Sjow was still a way more established player than Hyperion or Meomaika and the hellbats were freaking op while Life was entering a phase of relative slump.
Rewatching this game, Sjows macro is straight to master3/diamond 1. His micro could still perhaps GM today although I think there are so many more nuances to micro in todays meta than what was displayed in that series..
This patch wasnt Hellbats being OP though. Hellbats being op was when you could have 4 of them in a medivac. This was more the meta where zergs just hadnt learned to play properly against MMMM yet in terms of when to drone (and not to build roaches). A couple of months later the matchup stabilized (and then mines got nerfed and it got zerg favored, then mines got unnerfed 6 months later and the MU was fine for rest of HOTS).
I think Sjow beating Life in terms of upsets potential would be like if uThermal beat Dark today.
Life was ranked #3 on Aligulac while Sjow was around #250; Dark is currently ranked #9, uThermal is #28.
Life was probably hungover or something, but still :D.
Sjow was still a way more established player than Hyperion or Meomaika and the hellbats were freaking op while Life was entering a phase of relative slump.
Rewatching this game, Sjows macro is straight to master3/diamond 1. His micro could still perhaps GM today although I think there are so many more nuances to micro in todays meta than what was displayed in that series..
This patch wasnt Hellbats being OP though. Hellbats being op was when you could have 4 of them in a medivac. This was more the meta where zergs just hadnt learned to play properly against MMMM yet in terms of when to drone (and not to build roaches). A couple of months later the matchup stabilized (and then mines got nerfed and it got zerg favored, then mines got unnerfed 6 months later and the MU was fine for rest of HOTS).
I think Sjow beating Life in terms of upsets potential would be like if uThermal beat Dark today.
Life was ranked #3 on Aligulac while Sjow was around #250; Dark is currently ranked #9, uThermal is #28.
Yeah, I mean, at the time the Korean scene was very far ahead of the foreign scene, and had much more depth that it does today. Any foreigner beating a GSL player was a huge upset. Elephant in the room and all that.
On April 23 2021 14:29 ZigguratOfUr wrote: Updated article with the top upsets for each year, and a "Rating Adjusted" list of biggest upsets in SCII history.
Interesting, man Hydra had a hell of a time in getting upset
On April 23 2021 14:29 ZigguratOfUr wrote: Updated article with the top upsets for each year, and a "Rating Adjusted" list of biggest upsets in SCII history.
EPT
