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Code S Ro8 Preview (2019 Season 3)

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Code S Ro8 Preview (2019 Season 3)

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 9th, 2019 21:05 GMT

Code S Season 3 - Quarterfinals Preview

by Wax

Code S Season 3 speeds ahead with nary a moment to rest, with the playoffs beginning just days after the conclusion of the Ro16. Like WCS Fall, it's not just the prestige and prize money of THIS tournament that's on the line anymore—there are also big Global Finals qualification stakes for some of our quarterfinalists.

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia


[image loading]


Quarterfinal #1: Dark vs TY

Tuesday, Sep 10 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

It's do or die time for #9 ranked TY, who needs all the points he can get from GSL Code S if he's to feel at all safe about his Global Finals chances (though Super Tournament II remains). Unfortunately, he's headed up against an opponent who should mash him when we look at their head-to-head records: Dark has an overwhelming 18-7 match score against TY over the years.

However, given recent circumstances, I get the feeling that historical precedent may not matter much.

As someone who's touted the "Dark is the greatest late-game player in Korea" line for years, I'm freely casting doubt on whether or not that's true anymore. If Dark's ability to juggle complex unit compositions used to be peerless in all of StarCraft, now even Dark fans have to admit he's become rather inconsistent (maybe that's what watching Serral matches will do to you). From his earlier struggles to overcome GuMiho's mass BC's with Infestors, or his upset against KeeN's Ghost-mech this season, he's struggling in late-game scenarios that are supposed to be an auto-win for 'top' Zerg players. Scenes where he annihilates FanTaSy's Thors with BL-Infestor are an illusion—that's just FanTaSy being a stubborn player with a fatal attraction to death traps (or he's a benevolent older brother falling on his sword to earn Zerg nerfs for his Terran brethren). Even ZvZ tells a worrisome tale, with Elazer—not THE paragon of fantastic spellcaster usage in Europe—managed to win the Viper duels against Dark in GSL vs the World.

That's not to say Dark has become a chump or anything—he's the Code S champion, for god's sake. His all-around stability and defensive ability were on point during his title run, while his uncanny sense for when to go all-in was razor sharp. I'm just saying that the notion that this will be a "ZvT late-game LUL" type match could be unfounded.

TY? I like to think that out of Serral's Terran punching-bags, he made Serral's fists hurt the most. That's right, I'm using relative success against Serral as a measuring stick for skill—it's only fair after we did it for Maru during his period of utter dominance. Not getting TOTALLY destroyed by Serral basically counts as a win against a merely good player (though, I must admit, Stats' Ro16 failures showed us this can be a flawed way to rate players).

I have to wonder is how often TY will actually WANT to play longer mech-style games (even with the Ghost buff), and how many plan B's he'll have if he deems Zerg late-game to be unbeatable halfway through the series. Maru shrewdly threw all his mech preparation in the garbage once he made that realization against Solar and was victorious because of it—TY might also need to make that move if he finds that the 'real' Dark is back and spreading the horrible blight of BL-Infestor even further. Given that TY has been historically quite adept at bunker-rushing and executing mid-game timings, I get the feeling he'll be well-prepared for all contingencies.

There's one final factor that makes me think this match is in TY's favor: the stakes. TY desperately needs the extra WCS Korea points from advancing extra rounds so he doesn't have to place all his chips on one miraculous Super Tournament II run. It isn't like Dark is notorious for becoming complacent after success, I have to imagine he'll be just slightly less driven after winning his first Code S championship and having his Global Finals spot set in stone.

Prediction: TY 3 - 1 Dark

Quarterfinal #3: Trap vs KeeN

Tuesday, Sep 10 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) (Note: matches are not played in usual GSL sequence)

KeeN is the unusual underdog that no one wants to kick—he's not being called the symbol of skill-decline in GSL, a beneficiary of balance changes, or a ninja who slipped in through an easy group's back door. Basically, we're not treating him like Hurricane.

It's largely because he announced that he's being whisked off to fulfill Korea's mandatory military service at the end of the season, with even Super Tournament II participation out of the question (he admitted to some clerical errors on his end that made his conscription so abrupt). When we realize a journeyman player is at the end of his road, when we remember his prodigious skill was only lost inside the roaring sea of his fearsome peers, when we confront the fact that this man spent his youth in service of our entertainment, we finally extend him some kindness and appreciation. This match could very well be the last hurrah for KeeN, a player who was one of the more notable ones at the start of Wings of Liberty, kindling a mini-rivalry with Brood War legend NaDa, regaled us with victory pop-offs that briefly became mainstream memes, and placed 3rd in this very website's proprietary, premiere-tier tournament (remember that?).

We're also extending KeeN some respect in this match due to his performance in the round-of-sixteen. Sure, any one of SpeCial, KeeN, and FanTaSy could plausibly have won the TvT shoot-out for second place in Group A. But KeeN actually took a map off Dark by outplaying him in the late-game where Terrans are supposed to be powerless—perhaps his most impactful game in years.

Alas, KeeN must now move on from TvZ to TvP, that TvP being against an opponent who holds a ridiculous 13-2 match record against him. Trap has won his last seven matches against KeeN, and it looks like a damn lock that it's going to be eight very soon. He's 6-0 in PvTs after the patch (with a 15-5 map score), while he's an absurd 52-11 for the entire 2019 competitive season.

While KeeN said he hoped for a TvT in the quarterfinals, he also mentioned that TvP was somewhat playable afte rthe patch. I would have brushed that off as a smirk from a man walking to the gallows, but Maru's newfound confidence in TvP gave me pause. Maru is one of the extreme examples of how progamers always complain about how their race is weak, and their admission that a match-up is 'balanced' probably means that it's 70:30 in their favor. What do Korean Terrans know that we don't? Are all of them capable of the late-game, multi-nuking acrobatics that Maru pulled off against Stats?

Upon examination of KeeN's stats, I'm tempted to break TL.net's no-meme rule here and just post the Nick Young with question marks around his head meme here. Since the patch, his PvT record shows that he's lost to foreign Protosses DnS and Gerald (0-2 against both). For the entire competitive year, he's actually SUB 50% in TvP. So, uhh... yeah.

With Trap already mathematically locked-in for the Global Finals spot on points, it would be a great, feel-good story with only minor fallout for Trap if KeeN could somehow pull this upset off. Top eight is his previous best result in Code S—it would be fantastic if he could set a new career-best before bowing out. Unfortunately, there's no reason for Trap to show him mercy. As fans, we want epic series and heartwarming moments. Trap? He's got money to make.

Prediction: Trap 3 - 1 KeeN

Quarterfinal #2: Rogue vs Zest

Wednesday, Sep 11 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

It's time for GSL Rogue, baby!

We do a lot of navel-gazing here at TL.net, where we re-hash popular narratives, drive them into the dirt, and then pretend we're introspective enough to recognize the flaws in doing so. Rogue's quarterfinal curse in Code S provides us an amazing opportunity to indulge in this behavior again.

What does one do when confronted with Rogue's 0-8 record in Code S quarterfinal matches? One might shrug it off as a product of simple variance—another one of those unlikely coincidences in life that we foolishly rush to assign deep meaning to. Or one could say that if something happens TOO many times, there MUST be real meaning behind it, and even if it used to be mere happenstance before, it's become a real obstacle in the mind of the player (the 'soO phenomenon').

Regardless of which point of view you have on Rogue, you have to feel pretty good about his chances of finally ending that losing streak. He seems to have overcome his spring slump, quietly racking up impressive online results before surprising everyone by winning the Code S Ro16 group-of-death (wins vs Stats and Solar). Even better: his opponent is none other than Zest, who's here after losing to RagnaroK and beating Dear twice in the Ro16.

Given that we already know Zest is an amazing PvP player, plus the fact that he had a 17-4 career record against Dear before the matches, I won't pretend those wins even tangentially matter here (not even in terms in of 'momentum' and what not). What we DO have go by is two lackluster losses to RagnaroK, where Zest got totally rocked by swarms of Ravager-Baneling in game one, and then couldn't overcome Nydus-Swarm Host tactics in game two. There wasn't much redeeming about Zest's play in those games, even if you try to hype RagnaroK as a better-than-you-think player. In contrast, Rogue breezed by a red-hot Stats in the Ro16, deploying a Nydus-Swarm Host strategy of his own as well as deflecting a cannon rush. Yeah, it's looking rather grim for Zest.

And personally, I think the mental block theory for Rogue's struggles in the Code S Ro8 is a bit overblown. When you break down his losses, the only 'bad' losses are a 0-3 to Classic in 2015 and 1-3 to Neeb in 2018. Otherwise, he's generally played amazing players such as soO and Maru at the top of their games, and he's often forced the series to go the full five games. I'm ready to call Rogue a Code S choker IF he happens to blow this series to Zest here, but I seriously doubt it will happen.

Prediction: Rogue 3 - 0 Zest

Quarterfinal #4: Maru vs RagnaroK

Wednesday, Sep 11 11:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

At the time of writing, Liquibet users are favoring Maru over RagnaroKby about a 13-to-1 ratio. You don't really need to do an Aligulac.com deep-dive to find out why—four Code S championships to zero kind of seals the deal. But since lopsided stats are funny and really help hammer the point home, here are those numbers anyway: Maru is 8-1 against RagnaroK in career head-to-head matches with a combined 14-2 map score. For the 2019 WCS Season, Maru has a 28-6 record in TvZ matches for an 82.35% win-rate, while RagnaroK is 35-21 in ZvT which comes out to a 62.5% win-rate. As the kids these days say it, that's a 'big oof.'

While I didn't particularly want to make an underdog argument for RagnaroK, I'll do so anyway because I don't want to ask myself existential questions about why TL.net previews exist at all.

The last time Maru and RagnaroK faced off in GSL, it was in the Ro32 of Code S Season 1. You may not believe it, but RagnaroK ALMOST stole game one of the series. Okay, I'm playing it a bit liberally with the word "almost" here (kind of like Blizzard with the word "soon"), but just bear with me here for the sake of this argument. RagnaroK somehow managed to hold out against a constant barrage of attacks from Maru–a more INnoVation-like parade push than even INno himself was capable of—surviving until he squeezed out the Brood Lords needed to send the Marines and Tanks packing. At that moment, I thought 'Wait, what? Did RagnaroK just take the advantage?' Indeed, with Brood Lords on the field and Maru scrambling to put together any counter, it seemed like the hard-stuck-in-Ro32 Zerg actually had a chance to win. Mind you, this was Maru at the peak of his powers, during the season where he won his fourth straight Code S title. It was amazing that a player of RagnaroK's low repute survived to reach Hive tech at all.

Of course, then RagnaroK proceeded to throw the game by attacking into Maru's fourth base without any anti-air units of his own, wasting time nibbling away at a Planetary Fortress before losing everything to Vikings being produced five at a time. Alright, now you see why the word ALMOST was a bit of a stretch.

For me, this comes down to which of RagnaroK's traits I want to weigh more heavily: the macro, the micro, and the reaction-time needed to survive Maru's parade pushes and reach his end game composition? Or the bone-headedness of donating all his units for free at the most crucial juncture of the game? Personally, I believe enough in the former to at least predict a non-sweep, but that's about as much credit as I'm willing to extend RagnaroK.

I'll conclude with a musing about Maru, since this preview has been a bit light on his end. Honestly, there's not much I want to get into at this round of the tournament. He got humiliated last season in the Ro32, nearly had that happen again this time around, and then he proceeded to rip Stats limb from limb a few days ago. And yet, no one seems surprised at all. He's up in rarefied air alongside the likes of Flash, where no matter how many losses he eats, no one would bat an eye if he returned to put in a world #1 performance. That kind of class really does negate previewing or analyzing these matches too much, because everything can be boiled down "he's f***ing Maru."

Prediction: Maru 3 - 1 RagnaroK

Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com
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TL+ Member
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
48936 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-09 17:25:04
September 09 2019 17:23 GMT
#2
It's time for another edition of "Surely Rogue isn't going to lose this Ro8 match"

Also
[image loading]
you might wanna release the preview for Trap vs Keen.
Splyce flair now | Where is knowledge? | Old man hands > towel hands
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States27975 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-09 17:39:26
September 09 2019 17:27 GMT
#3
On September 10 2019 02:23 Elentos wrote:
It's time for another edition of "Surely Rogue isn't going to lose this Ro8 match"

you might wanna release the preview for Trap vs Keen.


I defy you to present that he was considered the favorite in a significant # of his prev matches (peak maru, stats, soO, maru again).

Also, I can't believe liquipedia was wrong :[

(edit: okay Afreeca revealed the actual match order like 6 hours ago while I was sleeping; I feel less bad now since I wrote the drafts before that. edit-edit: okay nm it was revealed on air; they just didn't put up a news posting until a few hours ago fhsghshasd)
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
48936 Posts
September 09 2019 17:38 GMT
#4
On September 10 2019 02:27 Waxangel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 02:23 Elentos wrote:
It's time for another edition of "Surely Rogue isn't going to lose this Ro8 match"

you might wanna release the preview for Trap vs Keen.


I defy you to present that he was considered the favorite in a significant # of his prev matches (peak maru, stats, soO, maru again).

Also, I can't believe liquipedia was wrong :[

(edit: okay Afreeca revealed the actual match order like 6 hours ago while I was sleeping; I feel less bad now since I wrote the drafts before that)

I can't objectively prove that but I can prove the fact that Rogue's in his 11th Korean league Ro8 (incl. SSL) and this is the 7th time the TL preview predicts him as the winner
Splyce flair now | Where is knowledge? | Old man hands > towel hands
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States27975 Posts
September 09 2019 17:39 GMT
#5
On September 10 2019 02:38 Elentos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 02:27 Waxangel wrote:
On September 10 2019 02:23 Elentos wrote:
It's time for another edition of "Surely Rogue isn't going to lose this Ro8 match"

you might wanna release the preview for Trap vs Keen.


I defy you to present that he was considered the favorite in a significant # of his prev matches (peak maru, stats, soO, maru again).

Also, I can't believe liquipedia was wrong :[

(edit: okay Afreeca revealed the actual match order like 6 hours ago while I was sleeping; I feel less bad now since I wrote the drafts before that)

I can't objectively prove that but I can prove the fact that Rogue's in his 11th Korean league Ro8 (incl. SSL) and this is the 7th time the TL preview predicts him as the winner


okay fine, you win
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
48936 Posts
September 09 2019 17:45 GMT
#6
On September 10 2019 02:39 Waxangel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 02:38 Elentos wrote:
On September 10 2019 02:27 Waxangel wrote:
On September 10 2019 02:23 Elentos wrote:
It's time for another edition of "Surely Rogue isn't going to lose this Ro8 match"

you might wanna release the preview for Trap vs Keen.


I defy you to present that he was considered the favorite in a significant # of his prev matches (peak maru, stats, soO, maru again).

Also, I can't believe liquipedia was wrong :[

(edit: okay Afreeca revealed the actual match order like 6 hours ago while I was sleeping; I feel less bad now since I wrote the drafts before that)

I can't objectively prove that but I can prove the fact that Rogue's in his 11th Korean league Ro8 (incl. SSL) and this is the 7th time the TL preview predicts him as the winner


okay fine, you win

Noice.

So do you just release the rest of the previews today then or are you gonna stealth fix this?
Splyce flair now | Where is knowledge? | Old man hands > towel hands
Moonerz
Profile Joined March 2014
United States140 Posts
September 09 2019 17:59 GMT
#7
Bracket worked out great for Maru, pretty decent chance at the G5L. Ragnarok should be fairly easy for Maru, Trap should get rid of KeeN to pave the way to a Maru vs Zest finals
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom7103 Posts
September 09 2019 18:01 GMT
#8
On September 10 2019 02:09 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
And personally, I think the mental block theory for Rogue's struggles in the Code S Ro8 is a bit overblown. When you break down his losses, the only 'bad' losses are a 0-3 to Classic in 2015 and 1-3 to Neeb in 2018.

It's not just about the losses were he completely craps it, it's all the ones he simply should have won. There are seasons where he looks like the best player in Code S/korea, and he still screws up in the ro8.

2017 season 2 - had he not lost that ridiculous game 4 vs soO he would go on to play Classic and Gumiho. And most likely wins the season, neither would pose much threat to him.

2017 season 3 - he straight up looked better than Stats as far as lategame PvZ goes, he threw the series going for wonky fake proxy strategies. Had he won there he faces sOs and INno, again, two players he would have been favoured against.

2018 season 2 - If not for the screw in game 5 vs Maru (overdroning and not making units vs Maru's obvious 211 allin that he scouted). He would have met Classic and Zest in the ro4/finals and probably stomp them harder than Maru did.

I'll give him credit that in all three of those cases I think he got unlucky (in the sense that he met the only player in the ro8 that would have likely beaten him) but it's still painful to see.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
sneakyfox
Profile Joined January 2017
4365 Posts
September 09 2019 18:03 GMT
#9
Really impressed by Wax's writing productivity lately, it's very nice to have all this previews. But one has to wonder if that cocktail of caffeine and benzedrine that is surely keeping him going is starting to interfere with his sense of judgement. I don't know which world it is where TY decidedly defeats Dark in a Bo5, but I definitely want to go there. Please make it so.
It's time to end region lock, not WCS | "I saw what sneakyfox wrote on TL.net and it made me furious" - PartinG
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
48936 Posts
September 09 2019 18:07 GMT
#10
On September 10 2019 03:01 Fango wrote:
2017 season 3 - he straight up looked better than Stats as far as lategame PvZ goes, he threw the series going for wonky fake proxy strategies. Had he won there he faces sOs and INno, again, two players he would have been favoured against.

No player at the time was favored in best of 7 against Innovation. Especially not when he had prep time.
Splyce flair now | Where is knowledge? | Old man hands > towel hands
Xain0n
Profile Joined November 2018
Italy2750 Posts
September 09 2019 18:50 GMT
#11
On September 10 2019 03:01 Fango wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 02:09 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
And personally, I think the mental block theory for Rogue's struggles in the Code S Ro8 is a bit overblown. When you break down his losses, the only 'bad' losses are a 0-3 to Classic in 2015 and 1-3 to Neeb in 2018.

It's not just about the losses were he completely craps it, it's all the ones he simply should have won. There are seasons where he looks like the best player in Code S/korea, and he still screws up in the ro8.

2017 season 2 - had he not lost that ridiculous game 4 vs soO he would go on to play Classic and Gumiho. And most likely wins the season, neither would pose much threat to him.

2017 season 3 - he straight up looked better than Stats as far as lategame PvZ goes, he threw the series going for wonky fake proxy strategies. Had he won there he faces sOs and INno, again, two players he would have been favoured against.

2018 season 2 - If not for the screw in game 5 vs Maru (overdroning and not making units vs Maru's obvious 211 allin that he scouted). He would have met Classic and Zest in the ro4/finals and probably stomp them harder than Maru did.

I'll give him credit that in all three of those cases I think he got unlucky (in the sense that he met the only player in the ro8 that would have likely beaten him) but it's still painful to see.


I can't really say about S2 2017, but I'm not convinced.
I doubt Rogue would have won S3 2017, sOs and Inno were tough nuts to crack.
I agree with you that S2 2018 was essentially Rogue's, but I'm not sure he could have stomped Zest more than Maru did.
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3385 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-09 18:56:12
September 09 2019 18:55 GMT
#12
TY > Dark

Zest > Rogue

Trap > Keen

Maru > Ragnarok


Zest > TY

Trap > Maru


Zest > Trap
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States15715 Posts
September 09 2019 19:00 GMT
#13
I feel like the TY part of this preview forgot about Inno, and Dark did beat Inno recently
I'm going with Dark here
"Expert"
MarianoSC2
Profile Joined June 2015
Slovakia1023 Posts
September 09 2019 19:13 GMT
#14
Dark and Rogue basically have a BYE so I am expecting both of them to lose because, well, korean zerg
Maru >= Rogue the Sexy Boy >= $O$ >= Neeb >= Uthermal >= Life :(
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom7103 Posts
September 09 2019 19:46 GMT
#15
On September 10 2019 03:50 Xain0n wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 03:01 Fango wrote:
On September 10 2019 02:09 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
And personally, I think the mental block theory for Rogue's struggles in the Code S Ro8 is a bit overblown. When you break down his losses, the only 'bad' losses are a 0-3 to Classic in 2015 and 1-3 to Neeb in 2018.

It's not just about the losses were he completely craps it, it's all the ones he simply should have won. There are seasons where he looks like the best player in Code S/korea, and he still screws up in the ro8.

2017 season 2 - had he not lost that ridiculous game 4 vs soO he would go on to play Classic and Gumiho. And most likely wins the season, neither would pose much threat to him.

2017 season 3 - he straight up looked better than Stats as far as lategame PvZ goes, he threw the series going for wonky fake proxy strategies. Had he won there he faces sOs and INno, again, two players he would have been favoured against.

2018 season 2 - If not for the screw in game 5 vs Maru (overdroning and not making units vs Maru's obvious 211 allin that he scouted). He would have met Classic and Zest in the ro4/finals and probably stomp them harder than Maru did.

I'll give him credit that in all three of those cases I think he got unlucky (in the sense that he met the only player in the ro8 that would have likely beaten him) but it's still painful to see.


I can't really say about S2 2017, but I'm not convinced.
I doubt Rogue would have won S3 2017, sOs and Inno were tough nuts to crack.
I agree with you that S2 2018 was essentially Rogue's, but I'm not sure he could have stomped Zest more than Maru did.

sOs was very overrated at the time. His PvZ was not the best in the world, where Rogue was.

As for INno, he could have beaten Rogue. But given that was the season he was pushing mech which Rogue ended up countering unfathomably hard, my money would be against him. Although if he played straight bio then Rogue would have a hard time.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
swarminfestor
Profile Joined September 2017
Malaysia373 Posts
September 09 2019 19:51 GMT
#16
1st unpopular opinion: Contrary to many belief that Rogue wont break his curse, I believe he may do it this time.

2nd unpopular opinion: the final will be a match between Rogue and Ragnarok / Keen.
Rogue, Ragnarok & Maru fan boy. ^^
evanreyes94
Profile Joined March 2019
Finland42 Posts
September 09 2019 20:13 GMT
#17
This bracket looks like its set up for Maru to get to the finals
yubo56
Profile Joined May 2014
411 Posts
September 09 2019 20:31 GMT
#18
On September 10 2019 05:13 evanreyes94 wrote:
This bracket looks like its set up for Maru to get to the finals

which means he loses 0-3 in Ro8 right? #NothingTragicLikeJAGWTragic
Jung Yoon Jong fighting, even after retirement! Feel better soon.
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq14724 Posts
September 09 2019 21:30 GMT
#19
On September 10 2019 05:31 yubo56 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 05:13 evanreyes94 wrote:
This bracket looks like its set up for Maru to get to the finals

which means he loses 0-3 in Ro8 right? #NothingTragicLikeJAGWTragic


He would if it was a weekender. With it being a GSL who knows.
Z3nith
Profile Joined October 2017
250 Posts
September 09 2019 22:04 GMT
#20
Even if Rogue breaks his curse I doubt he will get to the finals, coming up against TY or Dark who are both players who have traditionally taken maps off him (especially TY) will not be in any way easy.
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