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Code S RO16 Preview: Classic, RagnaroK, Dear, Zest

Forum Index > SC2 General
17 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO16 Preview: Classic, RagnaroK, Dear, Zest

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 6th, 2019 14:21 GMT

Code S Season 3 - RO16 Group D:
Classic, RagnaroK, Dear, Zest

Start time: Saturday, Sep 07 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Orlok

And here we are, at the very last GSL group of the 2019 season. While this group may not be as stacked as the prior group of death, it's just as unpredictable. All of these players are capable of amazing play when they're at the top of their games, which means any two could advance into the playoffs.

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia


The closest thing to a sure thing in this group is Classic, who is really making the most out of his twilight year before military service. Much has been made over the fact that the 27-year-old is typically the oldest competitor in a given match, having to adjust his game-style to one more focused on cheddar-infused preparation. And it's worked! Classic has enjoyed one of the most successful years of career, earning a a minimum a top 4 finish in every tournament he’s participated this year, from second place in the first GSL to a championship in the first Super Tournament. And while his his play is a far cry from the macro beasts we normally associate with championship caliber players, Classic is getting the wins where it matters.

However, a year is a very long time to stay consistently excellent, and Classic has shown signs of slippage lately. He was imperiled in the Ro32, losing to Creator in his initial match before clawing his way through in second place (getting revenge on Creator and defeating INnoVation). His narrow victory over SpeCial at GSL versus the World, followed by his loss in their rematch during the team competition also cast some doubt on his form—even if SpeCial performs best when he has time to prepare for a specific opponent (much like Classic). This group will tell us if this hardy veteran has the mental stamina to keep his farewell tour going.

As a seeded player, Classic selected RagnaroK as his initial opponent during group selections. Given RagnaroK's results in recent tournaments, and the fact that Classic already used him as a stepping stone in Code S Season 2, it's hard to argue with the choice. RagnaroK occasionally plays a brilliant game against a top player and has put up a near 75% online win-rate since June, but does any of that really matter when he can never seem to bring his best play to the AfreecaTV studio? Again, statistically, there’s nothing bad about RagnaroK’s chances in this all-Protoss group: his match-up win rate is near 75% percent, even if it's padded with victories against foreigners. What RagnaroK needs to do is bring his online brilliance offline, like he did during his Ro12 run at IEM Katowice, or when he staved off Classic's all-in last season and briefly made him regret picking him as an opponent.

Dear might have a far better career resume than RagnaroK, but lately, he's fallen into the same mold of being a player who's inconsistent about delivering on his potential to be great. He was fantastic at the beginning of the year, making a run to the top eight of IEM Katowice and even racking up a ridiculous 20-0 streak in PvT. Then, two 'big match' players got in the way: herO, who scrambled Dear's mind with PvP trickery in the IEM quarterfinals, and Maru, who laughed off Dear's PvT streak and broke him with constant aggression in their GSL playoff match. Dear has been so-so since then (Ro16 in Code S Season 2 and top eight in at ASUS ROG Summer), which bodes poorly for him as he now faces what could be the biggest matches of his season.

Dear currently has a tenuous grip on the #8 spot in the WCS Korea standings, with late-starters TY and Rogue chasing furiously behind him. Both TY and Rogue have advanced from their Ro16 groups: Dear needs to advance as well to stay in the race. There’s not much to write home about this one: either he’ll play with a little bit of the championship magic from years past, or he'll see his BlizzCon dreams go up in smoke. If these stakes can't motivate him to play at his best level, what can?

Finally, Zest enters as the most mysterious player in this group. Despite being shamed with Ro32 elimination in the first two Code S seasons of the year, he was still somehow the last player taken during the group nominations. Even if you consider that the players seemed to fear Protoss in general, that's a bit of a mind-bender.

The offline/online split for Zest seems to be as bad as ever in 2019. In 2018, offline Zest seemed to be able to shrug off the laughable macro slips, bad map awareness, and control mishaps to force out victories and even reach the GSL finals (though that ended in a brutal drubbing from Maru). This year, offline Zest has been getting pummeled in all competitions, at least until he managed a semifinal run at ASUS ROG Summer. However, he remains an online beast, with a 75% match win-rate since June, with wins against the likes of Cure, Trap, Dear, Maru and Rogue. Zest fans will be hoping his ASUS ROG run signaled a turning point, and that his fellow progamers had good reason to be afraid of him during the group selections.


Predictions
This group is the embodiment of the word 'coin-flip'. Not only is it laden with PvPs, but it seems to be an utter toss-up as to how well the non-Classic players will perform. Personally, seeing as RagnaroK has never managed to punch through once I’m more inclined to believe it’ll be a PvP showdown between Zest and Dear to decide the final winner.

Classic 2 - 0 RagnaroK
Dear 2 - 1 Zest
Classic 2 - 1 Dear
RagnaroK 1 - 2 Zest
Dear 1 - 2 Zest

Classic and Zest advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writers: Orlok
Editor: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com
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TL+ Member
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
48926 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-06 14:26:32
September 06 2019 14:26 GMT
#2
On September 06 2019 23:21 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
Dear might have a far better career resume than RagnaroK, but lately, he's fallen into the same mold of being a player who's inconsistent about delivering on his potential to be great.

Splyce flair now | Where is knowledge? | Old man hands > towel hands
Shathe
Profile Joined July 2017
Hungary266 Posts
September 06 2019 14:41 GMT
#3
Way too negative about Zest. In the last two offline tournaments hsc and asus rog he smashed nerds left and right. He is out of the slump.
darklycid
Profile Joined May 2014
644 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-06 14:47:16
September 06 2019 14:44 GMT
#4
On September 06 2019 23:41 Shathe wrote:
Way too negative about Zest. In the last two offline tournaments hsc and asus rog he smashed nerds left and right. He is out of the slump.

Counter point: at hsc he didn't look so hot until his pretty insane loser bracket run, at asus he looked good until his semifinal vs solar where he looked utter trash. Zest is just weird
Edit: Also in the loser bracket run at hsc he didn't really beat players you wouldn't expect him to beat outside maybe soO.
swarminfestor
Profile Joined September 2017
Malaysia372 Posts
September 06 2019 16:21 GMT
#5
I hope Ragnarok can get out of the group first. s
Rogue, Ragnarok & Maru fan boy. ^^
Moonerz
Profile Joined March 2014
United States140 Posts
September 06 2019 16:52 GMT
#6
Would like to see Ragnarok get out, would be a big result for him. However, my head says Zest/Classic to advance.
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada5460 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-06 18:08:46
September 06 2019 18:08 GMT
#7
On September 06 2019 23:26 Elentos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 23:21 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
Dear might have a far better career resume than RagnaroK, but lately, he's fallen into the same mold of being a player who's inconsistent about delivering on his potential to be great.



He was in multiple finals just 40-50 events ago
http://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
48926 Posts
September 06 2019 18:14 GMT
#8
On September 07 2019 03:08 Nakajin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 23:26 Elentos wrote:
On September 06 2019 23:21 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
Dear might have a far better career resume than RagnaroK, but lately, he's fallen into the same mold of being a player who's inconsistent about delivering on his potential to be great.



He was in multiple finals just 40-50 events ago

Dear's been inconsistent for longer than most active players have had championship titles under their belts. If that's not an accomplishment I don't know what is.
Splyce flair now | Where is knowledge? | Old man hands > towel hands
sneakyfox
Profile Joined January 2017
4354 Posts
September 06 2019 18:20 GMT
#9
Agree with Classic and Zest advancing. Just can't bet against Zest in a PvP group.
It's time to end region lock, not WCS | "I saw what sneakyfox wrote on TL.net and it made me furious" - PartinG
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic8931 Posts
September 06 2019 18:32 GMT
#10
Dear Classic, I think that you will advance and as the second player Dear. Classic Dear
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
blooblooblahblah
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia3867 Posts
September 06 2019 23:37 GMT
#11
Feeling Zest for this one, even if I haven't liked his play for the last couple years and his form is super questionable, even when he does well. But PvP is PvP and it's one thing that Zest actually is good at.

I don't like Dear's PvP so I think he has one of the worst chances of getting out of this group (but it's still very close)

Ragnarok is a decent chance too.
Ganzi beat me without stim. Ostojiy beat me with a nydus. Siphonn beat me with probes. Revival beat my sentry-immortal all-in.
GAILITYSA
Profile Joined September 2019
3 Posts
September 07 2019 00:19 GMT
#12
On September 06 2019 23:26 Elentos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 23:21 TL.net ESPORTS wrote:
Dear might have a far better career resume than RagnaroK, but lately, he's fallen into the same mold of being a player who's inconsistent about delivering on his potential to be great.


However, a year is a very long time to stay consistently excellent, and Classic has shown signs of slippage lately. He was imperiled in the Ro32, losing to Creator in his initial match before clawing his way through in second place (getting revenge on Creator and defeating INnoVation). His narrow victory over SpeCial at GSL versus the World, followed by his loss in their rematch during the team competition also cast some doubt on his form—even if SpeCial performs best when he has time to prepare for a specific opponent (much like Classic). This group will tell us if this hardy veteran has the mental stamina to keep his farewell tour going.
BerserkSword
Profile Joined December 2018
United States1279 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-07 05:47:44
September 07 2019 05:47 GMT
#13
i was told that 2019 is the year of protoss
TL+ Member
LTCM
Profile Joined May 2017
103 Posts
September 07 2019 13:37 GMT
#14
On September 07 2019 14:47 BerserkSword wrote:
i was told that 2019 is the year of protoss


The year of round of 8 protoss.
Byun is a convicted match-fixer.
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany2805 Posts
September 09 2019 11:17 GMT
#15
3 Terrans in the Ro8? Clearly Blizz overbuffed Terran. So Ghost! Much EMP! Many win!
TheDougler is the master of signature bets, he is the two-time Blizzcon SigBet Champ. Also, Serral let me down.
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic8931 Posts
September 09 2019 11:38 GMT
#16
On September 09 2019 20:17 Harris1st wrote:
3 Terrans in the Ro8? Clearly Blizz overbuffed Terran. So Ghost! Much EMP! Many win!

Let's blame Dark who actually guaranteed one of the weak Terarns in the RO8

That's why Code S RO8 is so unreliable in the terms of racial balance. Let's face it, in a proper seeding system all 3 Terrans in the group A wouldn't have much chances. But since the weird system of Code S is in place, RO8 racial balance can and will be screwed by this.
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom7102 Posts
September 09 2019 14:27 GMT
#17
On September 09 2019 20:38 deacon.frost wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2019 20:17 Harris1st wrote:
3 Terrans in the Ro8? Clearly Blizz overbuffed Terran. So Ghost! Much EMP! Many win!

Let's blame Dark who actually guaranteed one of the weak Terarns in the RO8

That's why Code S RO8 is so unreliable in the terms of racial balance. Let's face it, in a proper seeding system all 3 Terrans in the group A wouldn't have much chances. But since the weird system of Code S is in place, RO8 racial balance can and will be screwed by this.

Will it? Usually it just guarantees a weaker player getting into the ro8, the group selections don't favour a particular race.

It's just in Dark's case that his best matchup is ZvT and he managed to squeeze the three weakest terrans into his group.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic8931 Posts
September 09 2019 14:47 GMT
#18
On September 09 2019 23:27 Fango wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2019 20:38 deacon.frost wrote:
On September 09 2019 20:17 Harris1st wrote:
3 Terrans in the Ro8? Clearly Blizz overbuffed Terran. So Ghost! Much EMP! Many win!

Let's blame Dark who actually guaranteed one of the weak Terarns in the RO8

That's why Code S RO8 is so unreliable in the terms of racial balance. Let's face it, in a proper seeding system all 3 Terrans in the group A wouldn't have much chances. But since the weird system of Code S is in place, RO8 racial balance can and will be screwed by this.

Will it? Usually it just guarantees a weaker player getting into the ro8, the group selections don't favour a particular race.

It's just in Dark's case that his best matchup is ZvT and he managed to squeeze the three weakest terrans into his group.

It will, usually the group A is the weakest, which guarantees there will be either a group of death or 2 hard groups with 3 heavy hitting players. (more or less) This results in a fact that in a seeding system some players who may advance would have harder advancing. Also because some players favor some races and they pick similar people we may have screwed the rating.

e.g. Dark, all Protoss groups, etc.

The point is that the group selection process affects the RO8 racial ratio and thus makes it less valuable.

But that's my view on the thing, that's why I don't want to use Code S RO8 race distribution that much seriously and I rather use RO16 where players cannot pick what they like.
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
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