What lessons have we learned from the first four months of competitive StarCraft II in 2019? That depends on your point of view. Some might say it's that Serral is no longer invulnerable, and the title of 'best in the world' is up for grabs. More sentimental fans might say it's that hard work truly does pay off, as evidenced by soO's storybook run at IEM. Hardcore viewers of the GSL know the real take away: The GSL is an entirely different beast compared to other competitions.
As we head into the first GSL playoffs the year, we notice the conspicuous absence of supposed world champions soO and INnoVation. And while they will be missed by many, few will make excuses for them. We've known for years that the GSL is a proving ground unlike any other in StarCraft II—it's an arena where it's a tremendous honor to win, and it's no great shame to lose. The eight remaining contenders, by simple virtue of having survived this far, have been proved worthy. Let's meet the first four.
Quarterfinal #1: Bunny vs Dark
by Mizenhauer
Experience is a powerful asset. Having walked down a road before means one can better prepare themselves better for the trials ahead. Even nervous jitters and the anxiety of uncertainty can become familiar after enough journeys down the same path. The experienced are simply better equipped to handle whatever adversity they will inevitably encounter.
The first quarterfinal of this season’s Code S features perhaps the greatest disparity in experience we’ve seen at this stage of the tournament in recent years. In one corner towers Dark. While it’s only his third career visit to the round of 8 in Code S, Dark has been one of the most prolific players since the launch of LotV with semifinals-or-higher finishes in over 14 premier tournaments. He's strong in nearly every aspect of the game, and that goes beyond his prodigious physical gifts. He has one of the keenest killer instincts StarCraft II has ever seen, knowing exactly when to kill his opponent off. His main weakness is an ugly habit of inexplicably losing big matches, but that hasn’t stopped him from making one deep run after another. Dark is counted among one of the game's elites and perennial title contenders, even if he hasn’t converted his boundless talent into a championship since 2016.
Where Dark has battled on the biggest stages under the brightest lights, Bunny career has been largely spent toiling in anonymity. His StarCraft II debut came way back in 2013, when his team CJ Entus made the switch from Brood War. He made no headway in individual events, failing to qualify for Code S in his first three years as a progamer. He only appeared 21 times in Proleague during that period.
LotV marked the beginning of more fruitful times for Bunny, who started qualifying for Korean leagues with regularity. He wasn’t accomplishing much more than that, but it was a real sea change for someone who had been relegated to the B team of one of the more depleted rosters in Proleague. His performances in minor competitions started to catch the eye of hardcore fans, who enjoyed his aggressive, drop-or-nothing style. That might be oversimplifying his play, but having a stereotype at all proved that he had earned a modicum of relevancy in the scene.
This season marked Bunny’s third appearance in the Round of 16 in Code S, but it’s the first in which he managed to advance. In fact it’s the first in which he even notched a victory, a feat made all the more impressive given Maru’s looming presence in their group. Bunny made quick work of the three time defending champion with an aberrant performance that probably left many wondering how he failed to defeat uThermal and Scarlett at IEM Katowice.
Whether it’s cosmic forces, the comforts of home, or the lack of jet lag, Bunny looked altogether different in his return to the FreecUP studio. Dark meanwhile struggled mightily when it came his time to play, limping his way to a second place finish in a group in which many considered him the prohibitive favorite (vs herO, Cure, and Dear). If you didn’t know anything else about them, you might even peg Bunny as the better player going into their Wednesday showdown.
That’s all well and good, but the simple truth is there’s a reason Bunny has never made it this deep in Code S before. In fact, over the course of his six year career he’s only reached the quarterfinals of a premier event once, the sixteen man GSL Super Tournament 2 held last year where he was trounced 3-1 by, you guessed it, Dark. With a 9-2 lifetime record against the Team Blacer Terran, and a commanding 14 to 4 map advantage in their last six meetings there’s no reason to believe the first Code S quarterfinal of 2019 won’t be business as usual.
Quarterfinal #2: Classic vs Rogue
by Wax
Classic vs Rogue is a match-up that insists on being an ultimate showdown of destiny, to the degree that you can basically hear the ominous Latin chanting in the background. But who cares that this storyline is a bit trite? It's just too delicious to pass over.
One year ago, Classic and Rogue faced off at IEM Katowice with more than just the first place prize of $150,000 on the line (but mostly $150,000). Reigning BlizzCon champion Rogue had been humiliated after suffering RO32 elimination in GSL Code S, and only another world title could clear his reputation. On the other hand, elder statesman Classic was making a late career surge, looking for one final title that he could perhaps retire upon.
What passed was one of the most brutal grand finals massacres in StarCraft II history, with Rogue taking a comprehensive four-game sweep where he won in almost every conceivable way: a Nydus cheese, a deluge of hydralisks and banelings, a grueling late-game choke-out, and one of those bizarre games where both players went all-in. If the series had been extended to a best of nine, you figure Rogue would have swatted down a two-base timing from Classic just to drive the point home: Classic got OWNED.
A year later, Classic is on yet another 'final' tour of the GSL as his mandatory military service hangs over his head. Out of nowhere, he's stumbled across something more to fight for than one last championship. He now has a chance to prove that revenge is indeed, a dish best served cold, in the—*dun dun dun*—GSL Code S round of eight. Classic's enemy might be Rogue, but Rogue faces an equally fearsome nemesis in the RO8 itself. He's never advanced past this stage of Code S in seven previous appearances, with his defeats ranging from understandable (2-3 vs god-mode Maru) to unforgivable (0-3 vs Curious). It's the one last "but" his critics can hold over his head—he's won BlizzCon and he's won IEM, but he's never won GSL Code S.
The stats say this is a match that Rogue should win. Since the beginning of the WCS 2019 cycle, Rogue has tallied an absurd 27-5 record in ZvP matches (with a 73-33 map score), while Classic stands at a mere 6-4 vs Zerg opponents (15-12 map score).
Neither player has competed a live PvZ/ZvP match since the Code S RO32, where Rogue trampled Patience with two all-ins, while Classic just barely survived TRUE's roach-ravager-queen cheeses. They've played a handful of online matches in the interim—in Rogue's case, his Olimoleague matches vs Trap and Creator reaffirmed his status as a kind of 'reverse-Dark,' in that he loves to all-in, but he'll still totally outplay you in a macro game if you give him a chance. As for Classic, he experimented with a variety of Protoss openers against Impact and DongRaeGu, though the lessons learned were less clear (maybe 'glaive-adepts are good when people forget they exist?').
The complicating factor is that this is the GSL, where careful preparation can bridge any gap in skill, form, or class. This is the stage where the smartest, most dastardly Protoss strategies are supposed to make their appearance. Yet, Rogue and Classic's previous meeting in the BlizzCon group stage (where GSL-style prep is still possible) makes you less optimistic about Classic's chances, as Rogue basically laughed off Classic's surprise disruptor-drop on his way to a 2-0 win. And, of course, there's nothing better to ruin a Protoss' well-laid plans than a well-laid Nydus in their main.
Prediction
Even as I stress the importance of Protoss trickery in a GSL playoff match, it might actually be Classic's ability to read and react to Rogue's play that matters most. For an underdog, the 'easiest' win available against Rogue is to defend convincingly against one of his nydus all-ins or roach-ravager attacks. Unfortunately, Classic hasn't looked sharp enough on the offensive or defensive end of PvZ in the limited number of games we've seen, so I'm picking Rogue to advance to the semifinals.
I interpret Mizenhauer's refusal to make predictions as some kind of personal protest against sports media culture, and perhaps even Western values as a whole.
Bunny - Bunny seems to be in good form currently and has been showing some incremental improvement in the last year. Rather than losing after failed harass he manages to make the game longer, and rather than looking lost in the macro long game it actually looks like he might know what he's doing. That said I find him beating Dark to be a total long shot.
Dark - Sometimes I have no idea how Dark loses. He's so very very good. Then he oddly dies. He's been rock solid this last year and I expect him to 3-1 Bunny.
Rogue - Rogue is a pretty big ZvP monster and he (predictably) also seems to be in great form. Then again, it is Rogue, and just when you think he's gotta be unstoppable and will have an easy win, he wanders off the stage with an 0-3. I think he meshes well with Classics style which is predictable and safe, allowing Rogue to go for an assortment of all ins and a billion drones.
Classic - plays rock solid standard PvZ. Mathematically it's better than average but PvZ has felt like his worst matchup and is how he gets kicked from tournaments for the last year or so. I really doubt he'll make it passed Rogue even though I would love it if he did. Does not seem like a great bracket for him either. Rogue takes it 3-1, with a 3-0 being more likely than a 3-2.
Dont worry MIz!! I will do the prediction for you -> Dark 3 - 0 Bunny in a ROLFSTOMP manner. I do hope for a Bunny mighty stand but I dont see it comming.
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
On March 26 2019 11:22 Russano wrote: Bunny - Bunny seems to be in good form currently and has been showing some incremental improvement in the last year. Rather than losing after failed harass he manages to make the game longer, and rather than looking lost in the macro long game it actually looks like he might know what he's doing. That said I find him beating Dark to be a total long shot.
Dark - Sometimes I have no idea how Dark loses. He's so very very good. Then he oddly dies. He's been rock solid this last year and I expect him to 3-1 Bunny.
Rogue - Rogue is a pretty big ZvP monster and he (predictably) also seems to be in great form. Then again, it is Rogue, and just when you think he's gotta be unstoppable and will have an easy win, wanders off the stage with an 0-3. I think he meshes well with Classics style which is predictable and safe, allowing Rogue to go for an assortment of all ins and a billion drones.
Classic plays rock solid standard PvZ. Mathmatically it's better than average but PvZ has felt like his worst matchup and how he gets kicked from tournaments for the last year or so. I really doubt he'll make it passed Rogue even though I would love it if he did. Does not seem like a great bracket for him either. Rogue takes it 3-1, with a 3-0 being more likely than a 3-2.
Yeah, usually in semifinal or finals, Dark just seems good but not 100% in his matches but I feel like Rogue is even more inconsistent. He can look like the best player in the world on one day and on some other days, he looks like he wouldn't make it out of GSL ro32. I'm a Dark fan but I would not mind if Classic won the whole GSL. Classic was so good last year and even though his results were good, it felt like he could've won a lot more than he did if he had good luck.
I'd love to see Classic win, but I think he's pretty shafted on the bracket as he's got to get through probably two PvZs. I think Dear and Trap are more likely to be the Protoss who do well (I've got a good feeling about Trap this season, but we'll see) as they are both best in a PvT. I'm more excited about seeing the top level PvT/TvPs coming out of the bottom half of the bracket. Maru and TY are the number 1 and 2 TvPers, Dear is the best PvT and Trap is arguably top 3 in PvT.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
So when we had 14/4/14 distribution in RO32 everything was fine because RO8 was 4/1/3? Only 1 Terran away from perfect distribution!
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
On March 26 2019 10:57 Waxangel wrote: I interpret Mizenhauer's refusal to make predictions as some kind of personal protest against sports media culture, and perhaps even Western values as a whole.
Mizen is a neurotic hyper realist: he sees a universe where his hypothetical prediction is voided, therefore being more contempt with not making a prediction at all
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
''
That the round of 32 of each GSL boiling down into the round of 16 then a round of 8 that consistently shows equal race distribution over the entirety of SC2's history is remarkable.
The sample size is big enough to allow discrepancies to have an influence (like the case you mentioned). But we are still getting ro8 equal distribution - how do you account for this? An extremely long run of flukes? No, odds are that it is because each race has an equal chance to make it to the ro8.
How can this be if the races are not or have not been balanced? A bizarre coincidence in player skill/ race strength-weakness consistently balancing out to allow for a ro8 equal distribution? Occam's razor argues against that theory and I do also.
Imagine a scenario where we start with equal numbers in race but ended up with consistently having say 5+ Terrans (for example) on average in the ro8. What conclusions could we draw from this? We of course would allow for some anomalies...but if it was consistently 5+ Terrans in the ro8 over the entirety of SC2 history, it would be pretty damning evidence of uneven balance favoring Terran.
Thus equal race distribution in the ro8 on average over the entirety of SC2 history is very good evidence of balance.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
''
That the round of 32 of each GSL boiling down into the round of 16 then a round of 8 that consistently shows equal race distribution over the entirety of SC2's history is remarkable.
The sample size is big enough to allow discrepancies to have an influence (like the case you mentioned). But we are still getting ro8 equal distribution - how do you account for this? An extremely long run of flukes? No, odds are that it is because each race has an equal chance to make it to the ro8.
How can this be if the races are not or have not been balanced? A bizarre coincidence in player skill/ race strength-weakness consistently balancing out to allow for a ro8 equal distribution? Occam's razor argues against that theory and I do also.
Imagine a scenario where we start with equal numbers in race but ended up with consistently having say 5+ Terrans (for example) on average in the ro8. What conclusions could we draw from this? We of course would allow for some anomalies...but if it was consistently 5+ Terrans in the ro8 over the entirety of SC2 history, it would be pretty damning evidence of uneven balance favoring Terran.
Thus equal race distribution in the ro8 on average over the entirety of SC2 history is very good evidence of balance.
Q.E.D
I disagree, equal race distribution over time is not "evidence of balance", there are way too many factors that affect what "races" are in ro8. I would argue it is definitely a result that does not show that there is an imbalance but just because it doesn't show imbalance doesn't mean it proves balance.
In the first place GSL has nothing to do with normal ladder balance, GSL is whole other beast.
In summary I would say the GSL ro8 race distribution over time does not indicate an imbalance between races strengths in the GSL tournament format. You really don't have any basis for drawing any more conclusions than that.
On March 26 2019 22:32 Shuffleblade wrote: Bunny > Dark Rogue > Classic Maru > Dear Trap < TY
Rogue > Dark Maru > TY
Rogue ^? Maru
You killed Dark in the Ro8 xD
Bunny < Dark Rogue > Classic Maru > Dear Trap < TY
Rogue > Dark Maru < TY
Rogue > TY
Haha! Yeah I meant to write Bunny against Rogue, I actually believe Bunny will take Dark and play well in the semifinals. I'm more sure in Bunny vs Dark than Rogue vs Classic. The two semifinals are probably going to be really closely contested.
Also hoping Bunny prepares a ceremony where he takes his pants off if he wins, would be perfect xD
Bunny seems to be very confident nowadays, he must be training diligently. So while history favors Dark, that might not be relevant to the current form. I'll give my vote to Bunny.
I wonder who Bunny is practicing with. You'd assume Classic has soO and Impact due to the SKT connection which in theory leaves some combination of Solar, TRUE, Losira, Leenock, and Ragnarok for Bunny, but that's a huge step down, especially if say Bunny can't get Solar.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
Blizzard couldn't help Polt in 2016, I don't see them being able to help Classic.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
Blizzard couldn't help Polt in 2016, I don't see them being able to help Classic.
Maybe they should ask ROOT and MC for advice since they got out of that hole.
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
Blizzard couldn't help Polt in 2016, I don't see them being able to help Classic.
Maybe they should ask ROOT and MC for advice since they got out of that hole.
just gotta gain weight? I thought MC delayed it because he was overweight lol
If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup. Bunny likes quick sharp attacks, and practices early-midgame army trading almost exclusively. I think Bunny takes it 3-1.
Classic vs Rogue... I think Classic's 2nd best MU is PvZ. (I think his worst MU is PvT. It was the best in the world 6-10 months ago. Not since.) Rogue is a monster though, and ZvP is really tricky for P these days if the zerg is a solid and can get his hatcheries and drones up. It's tough to call, but I think 3-2 Rogue.
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
And that's why Dark completely, utterly destroys him every time they play.
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
It's not just Bunny either, the man has a proven record; his aligulac Victims list is headed by TY, Gumiho, Alive, and Cure. The only Terrans that can really stand up to Dark are Maru and Inno.
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
It's not just Bunny either, the man has a proven record; his aligulac Victims list is headed by TY, Gumiho, Alive, and Cure. The only Terrans that can really stand up to Dark are Maru and Inno.
Dark is also INnoVation´s biggest nemesis on Aligulac and has Won 11 out of their last 13 encounters
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
It's not just Bunny either, the man has a proven record; his aligulac Victims list is headed by TY, Gumiho, Alive, and Cure. The only Terrans that can really stand up to Dark are Maru and Inno.
Dark is also INnoVation´s biggest nemesis on Aligulac and has Won 11 out of their last 13 encounters
Online.
Offline, Dark is very even with Maru/Inno, whereas he stomps Bunny, TY, Gumiho, etc.
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
It's not just Bunny either, the man has a proven record; his aligulac Victims list is headed by TY, Gumiho, Alive, and Cure. The only Terrans that can really stand up to Dark are Maru and Inno.
Dark is also INnoVation´s biggest nemesis on Aligulac and has Won 11 out of their last 13 encounters
Online.
Offline, Dark is very even with Maru/Inno, whereas he stomps Bunny, TY, Gumiho, etc.
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
It's not just Bunny either, the man has a proven record; his aligulac Victims list is headed by TY, Gumiho, Alive, and Cure. The only Terrans that can really stand up to Dark are Maru and Inno.
Dark is also INnoVation´s biggest nemesis on Aligulac and has Won 11 out of their last 13 encounters
Online.
Offline, Dark is very even with Maru/Inno, whereas he stomps Bunny, TY, Gumiho, etc.
Its a real shame that matchfixer had to matchfix because him not playing for the last three years takes away from Dark's case to be the best ZvT of all time for a lot of people. It's shocking how hard he tends to stomp guys like Bunny/Gumiho/TY despite them being all phenomenal in the matchup.
On March 27 2019 05:04 ThunderJunk wrote: If it was any zerg besides Dark, I would think Bunny is doomed, but Dark's playstyle is hardcountered by Bunny's strengths in the matchup.
It's not just Bunny either, the man has a proven record; his aligulac Victims list is headed by TY, Gumiho, Alive, and Cure. The only Terrans that can really stand up to Dark are Maru and Inno.
Dark is also INnoVation´s biggest nemesis on Aligulac and has Won 11 out of their last 13 encounters
Online.
Offline, Dark is very even with Maru/Inno, whereas he stomps Bunny, TY, Gumiho, etc.
Its a real shame that matchfixer had to matchfix because him not playing for the last three years takes away from Dark's case to be the best ZvT of all time for a lot of people. It's shocking how hard he tends to stomp guys like Bunny/Gumiho/TY despite them being all phenomenal in the matchup.
Phenomenal seems like a stretch.
Artosis loves to hype TY's intelligence and positioning, but his aggression is a bit lacking for TvZ. Gumiho's admitted that he just doesn't have the speed/skill to keep up with the matchup, and his bio suffers for it. Bunny might be endearing, but his style reminds me too much of the EU dogma of "TvZ lategame doesn't exist, so I'll just die at hive." None of them can match the mechanical marvels of a Maru or a Inno firing on all cylinders.
Dark is phenomenal. So was Life, whatever his personal failings. It takes equally exceptional Terrans to stand up to them.
On March 26 2019 23:36 Kazi25 wrote: Bunny seems to be very confident nowadays, he must be training diligently. So while history favors Dark, that might not be relevant to the current form. I'll give my vote to Bunny.
this is how i approached this match. i think dark is greater player but bunny has a big chip on his shoulder this season and i think he is going to play outside his expected range
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
''
That the round of 32 of each GSL boiling down into the round of 16 then a round of 8 that consistently shows equal race distribution over the entirety of SC2's history is remarkable.
The sample size is big enough to allow discrepancies to have an influence (like the case you mentioned). But we are still getting ro8 equal distribution - how do you account for this? An extremely long run of flukes? No, odds are that it is because each race has an equal chance to make it to the ro8.
How can this be if the races are not or have not been balanced? A bizarre coincidence in player skill/ race strength-weakness consistently balancing out to allow for a ro8 equal distribution? Occam's razor argues against that theory and I do also.
Imagine a scenario where we start with equal numbers in race but ended up with consistently having say 5+ Terrans (for example) on average in the ro8. What conclusions could we draw from this? We of course would allow for some anomalies...but if it was consistently 5+ Terrans in the ro8 over the entirety of SC2 history, it would be pretty damning evidence of uneven balance favoring Terran.
Thus equal race distribution in the ro8 on average over the entirety of SC2 history is very good evidence of balance.
Q.E.D
The fuck dude, GSL 2014 Season 2 RO32 14/4/14 -> 4/1/3
And I'm not mentioning GomTvT
If you insist on the entire history of SC2 then check the history first, please
Edit> 2014 S1 16/3/13 -> 5/1/2 2014 S3 16/7/9 -> 3/2/3 which is as equal as we can get but RO32 suggest the game isn't as balanced as it should be(or were just Protoss players better?)
At the same time 2013 S3 12/11/9 (kinda equal) -> 4/2/2 (not equal)
QED?
Edit 2> We have a whole unbalanced year but hey... qed
On March 26 2019 11:52 AxiomBlurr wrote: Dark and Classic to advance.
PS:
Once again the ro8 in GSL is the perfect litmus test for SC2 balance. The race distribution in GSL ro8 has been almost perfect since SC2 was released. An amazing fact, but a fact that the balance cry babies choose to continue to ignore.
GSL ist pretty much the worst test for balance. Ppl bring specifically designed builds to the table to snipe the one specific person. Nothing about this is balance.
Every weekender shows more about balance
Depends how you mean that weekenders shows more about balance, depends how you define balance.
Beastyqt had a really good discussion about balance (and if T is UP at the moment) based on the tournament results.
Basically it boiled down to how different races are good in different formats, more specifically terran is worse for weekender. The reasoning being that they are more dependant on harass to halt the zerg or protoss economy in TvZ and TvP. But at a weekender you play many players in a row in a short time, Ts builds once shown are often easy to defend well while the T has a very hard time to bring more than 4-5 builds to a tournament tops for each matchup. Its different for Z and P whom often isn't as reliant on getting harass damage in and can rely on more safe openings, the further the tournament goes along the harder it gets for T in those matchups when their builds have been shown.
GSL is about planning how to take down a specific person. None of GSL or weekender is really relevant to show ladder balance which are is when one person plays another person normally without knowing anything about that persons builds or playstyle.
But most important is the fact that GSL Ro8 is a small sample. Let me introduce you to an example - we have 28 Z, 2T and 2P in the Code S. For the fun of it - BoxeR, iloveoov, Bisu and Stork. And 28 random Zergs who got there because of some balance oopsie. We will get into RO8 these 4 giants and 4 random zergs. The ratio is off by 1(!!!!!!!!) player. 4/2/2. It looks almost perfect. While the whole balance is FUBAR. But hey, the RO8 looks fine, maybe we can tone down the Zerg a little bit, shall we?
I apologize to BW elitists for butchering nicknames of the players(if I did). I wanted to avoid the discussion of who's the best for the races in SC2 thus I used BW giants
Edit> If I throw NaDa into the example and change it to 27/3/2 with NaDa advancing we get 3/3/2. Best possible ratio. Who cares we needed 3 Bonjwas and 2 Dragons to get the perfect ratio
On March 26 2019 20:22 Akio wrote: As much as I'm rooting for Classic, it will be tragic if he wins GSL and then has to forfeit his BlizzCon spot due to his age...
I believe they would allow him travel to the Blizzcon. Maybe Blizzard can step in if he wins GSL. You have to believe in the chin.
''
That the round of 32 of each GSL boiling down into the round of 16 then a round of 8 that consistently shows equal race distribution over the entirety of SC2's history is remarkable.
The sample size is big enough to allow discrepancies to have an influence (like the case you mentioned). But we are still getting ro8 equal distribution - how do you account for this? An extremely long run of flukes? No, odds are that it is because each race has an equal chance to make it to the ro8.
How can this be if the races are not or have not been balanced? A bizarre coincidence in player skill/ race strength-weakness consistently balancing out to allow for a ro8 equal distribution? Occam's razor argues against that theory and I do also.
Imagine a scenario where we start with equal numbers in race but ended up with consistently having say 5+ Terrans (for example) on average in the ro8. What conclusions could we draw from this? We of course would allow for some anomalies...but if it was consistently 5+ Terrans in the ro8 over the entirety of SC2 history, it would be pretty damning evidence of uneven balance favoring Terran.
Thus equal race distribution in the ro8 on average over the entirety of SC2 history is very good evidence of balance.
Q.E.D
The fuck dude, GSL 2014 Season 2 RO32 14/4/14 -> 4/1/3
And I'm not mentioning GomTvT
If you insist on the entire history of SC2 then check the history first, please
Edit> 2014 S1 16/3/13 -> 5/1/2 2014 S3 16/7/9 -> 3/2/3 which is as equal as we can get but RO32 suggest the game isn't as balanced as it should be(or were just Protoss players better?)
At the same time 2013 S3 12/11/9 (kinda equal) -> 4/2/2 (not equal)
QED?
Edit 2> We have a whole unbalanced year but hey... qed
EPT![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/2019/s1bracket2.png)
