EPTWCS Global Finals spots and groups finalized - Page 3
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Boggyb
2855 Posts
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Morbidius
Brazil3449 Posts
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Boggyb
2855 Posts
On October 02 2017 03:07 Morbidius wrote: Innovation always bombs when he's not playing in Korea. He won an IEM in Germany and has had multiple other top 4 and top 2 finishes outside of Korea... | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On October 02 2017 03:12 Boggyb wrote: He won an IEM in Germany and has had multiple other top 4 and top 2 finishes outside of Korea... All of that happened years ago. Inno hasn't played overseas since Blizzcon 2015, before Legacy even came out. Using years-old evidence to predict he will "bomb" seems a bit presumptive. As far as groups go, Inno got the best one. None of the 15 other players has a higher chance of advancing in first; 2 foreign Zergs and a player who hasn't delivered since June are as good as it gets at Blizzcon. True and Serral are nowhere near Rogue and Gumiho has been pretty unimpressive as of late, while Inno's TvT looks invincible. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Group B - soO>Nerch. Rogue>Neeb. Rogue>soO. Neeb>Nerch. Neeb>soO. Rogue and Neeb advance Group C - Dark>Kela. Elazer>herO. Dark>Elazer. herO>Kela. Elazer>herO. Dark and Elazer advance Group D - Inno>TRUE. Serral>Gumiho. Serral>Inno. Gumiho>TRUE. Gumiho>Inno. Serral and Gumiho (maybe Inno) will advance On October 02 2017 03:25 pvsnp wrote: All of that happened years ago. Inno hasn't played overseas since Blizzcon 2015, before Legacy even came out. Using years-old evidence to predict he will "bomb" seems a bit presumptive. Didn't he play in Nationwars, Katowice, and shangai this year? | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
Stats (1st) and TY (2nd) advance, high probability. Group B: Rogue has the best chance to advance in first, but that's predicated on him winning ZvZ, an uncertain matchup in the best of times. soO has a reasonable chance of defeating him in the mirror match to claim first, though his form has not been amazing as of late whereas Rogue is on fire. As strong as Neeb is, he is facing an uphill battle against two of the best ZvP players in the world. Neeb has a modest-to-decent chance to advance in second, but he is definitely not favored. I can't see any way for Nerchio to advance with all three of his opponents favored against him. Rogue and soO advance (any order), high probability. Group C: Who advances is obvious, which order is not. Dark and herO are both in excellent form and virtually guaranteed to advance; the only question is in who gets first. herO narrowly edged out Dark at the Super Tournament, but on the whole they seem very evenly matched. Elazer has a small chance of overcoming herO, but no more than that. Like Nerchio, I can't see any way for Kelazhur to advance. Dark and herO advance (any order), virtually guaranteed. Group D: Inno advancing in first is the easiest call to make in the entire Ro16. Neither Serral nor True have anything close to the ZvT skill needed to stand against him, and his TvT looks nearly invincible. Gumiho has failed to impress as of late, and he is losing his edge of unpredictability as mech becomes more and more standard. Despite that, he is still a very difficult opponent for any foreign Zerg, and should be the most likely to advance in second. Serral has the best chance of any foreigner to advance, but it's still even money at best. Assuming he doesn't lose to True again, he might just be able to overcome Gumiho and advance in second. True is only in a slightly better position than Nerchio and Kelazhur, and he'll most likely end up in the same boat. Inno (1st), virtually guaranteed. Gumiho (2nd), mildly likely--Serral (2nd), mildly unlikely. | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On October 02 2017 03:49 Fango wrote: Group A - Stats>major. Snute>TY. Stats>Snute. TY>Major. TY>Snute. Stats and TY advance Group B - soO>Nerch. Rogue>Neeb. Rogue>soO. Neeb>Nerch. Neeb>soO. Rogue and Neeb advance Group C - Dark>Kela. Elazer>herO. Dark>Elazer. herO>Kela. Elazer>herO. Dark and Elazer advance Group D - Inno>TRUE. Serral>Gumiho. Serral>Inno. Gumiho>TRUE. Gumiho>Inno. Serral and Gumiho (maybe Inno) will advance Didn't he play in Nationwars, Katowice, and shangai this year? Lolwhoops forgot about those. NationWars was interesting but way back in January. He only lost to cheese there anyhow. Katowice happened before he fixed his TvT. Shanghai is the only one I would use as a decent predictor, and yes, Inno losing to herO is a reasonable possibility in Korea or outside of it. Inno might be the favorite, or it might be Rogue, but in both cases neither of them would be anything more than a slight favorite with good momentum. Look at the margins by which they won GSL Season 3 and the Super Tournament. Decider games all the way through. Any of Stats, Dark, Inno, Rogue, and herO are very close to dead even. I wouldn't be shocked to see any of them win/lose of any other. Your predictions seem pretty reasonable, with the glaring exception of Group D. Putting Serral or Gumiho over Inno when both history and form say otherwise....I'm going to assume you're just trolling. | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On October 02 2017 04:03 pvsnp wrote: Stats (1st) and TY (2nd) advance, high probability. Rogue and soO advance (any order), high probability. Dark and herO advance (any order), virtually guaranteed. Inno (1st), virtually guaranteed. Gumiho (2nd), mildly likely--Serral (2nd), mildly unlikely. I disagree with a few of these. Snute can beat TY, Neeb can beat soO, Elazer can beat herO, Serral can beat Inno and Gumiho, and Gumiho can beat Inno Not saying they will 100% beat them, but they definitely have good shots edit: btw I'm not trolling when I predicted Serral over Gumi and Inno. I 100% believe that mech sucks and Serral can beat it. | ||
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ThreeSixDrew
Canada183 Posts
Neeb has the best shot of winning it all, or making it to the final (in terms of foreigners). Perhaps Nerchio, Snute, or Elazer could pull out a RO4, or longshot RO2. | ||
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AzAlexZ
Australia3303 Posts
On October 02 2017 04:28 ThreeSixDrew wrote: I think we will have 2 or 3 foreigner in the RO8 and 1 in the RO4. Neeb has the best shot of winning it all, or making it to the final (in terms of foreigners). Perhaps Nerchio, Snute, or Elazer could pull out a RO4, or longshot RO2. Neeb has almost no chance against herO, Dark, Gumiho and Inno (and very little chance vs TY and Stats) the only Koreans in this tournament he can reliably beat are soO and True everyone else would stomp him or take it to 5 games | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On October 02 2017 04:14 Fango wrote: I disagree with a few of these. Snute can beat TY, Neeb can beat soO, Elazer can beat herO, Serral can beat Inno and Gumiho, and Gumiho can beat Inno Not saying they will 100% beat them, but they definitely have good shots edit: btw I'm not trolling when I predicted Serral over Gumi and Inno. I 100% believe that mech sucks and Serral can beat it. You saw the bio TvZ that Inno played yesterday, right? And you remember the bio TvZ that Inno beat Serral with at GSL vs the World, despite throwing away 30 supply for free? I'm really not sure how you (or anyone) can conclude that Serral can defeat Inno when Inno has both beaten Serral and players far more skilled than Serral (Rogue, Dark). Regarding mech, I'm far from convinced that SH are the be-all-end-all that avilo raves about. Certainly they are strong, and certainly Rogue won with them but I think that has more to do with Rogue's skill than SH themselves. Macro was the deciding factor in both of the mech games. Also, Inno never tried battle mech, which I intuitively think would counter SH. Bluntly put, I simply don't think Serral has the macro to beat Inno. He has a better chance against Gumiho because Gumiho's bio is pretty trash, but I would call them even at best. Similar argument applies to Snute vs TY. soO defeated Stats, he can definitely beat Neeb (though I expect it to be somewhat close). herO beat Dark and went 3-4 against Rogue, he can most certainly defeat Elazer. Gumiho can beat Inno, sure, anything can happen in a mirror. But Inno has a far more impressive TvT record in recent times, and far more impressive form in general to boot. In general, the foreigners are facing an uphill battle. Certainly some of them could win. But is it likely? I really don't think so. | ||
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Legan
Finland524 Posts
Group A has Stats, Dark and TY. All of them will be at Blizzcon, and Stats and TY will also share group there. Group B has first one of two foreigners that are in Blizzcon, Serral, and also INnoVation. They will also share their group at Blizzcon. Group C has the second foreigner, Elazer, that gets to play against Rogue for ZvZ, Byun for ZvT and Classic ZvP to show his current level at each matchup. Only Rogue will be also at Blizzcon. Group D has SoO, GuMiho and HerO, that will be at Blizzcon. They will not face each other again at group stage but also did not face each other at the Super Tournament. We can at least see the current level of play and is their practice paying off from Serral and Elazer. Also, these matches seem like the last matches that we will see them playing in Korea before them having to return to Europe to qualify for WESG. | ||
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AzAlexZ
Australia3303 Posts
On October 02 2017 04:36 pvsnp wrote: You saw the bio TvZ that Inno played yesterday, right? And you remember the bio TvZ that Inno beat Serral with at GSL vs the World, despite throwing away 30 supply for free? I'm really not sure how you (or anyone) can conclude that Serral can defeat Inno when Inno has both beaten Serral and players far more skilled than Serral (Rogue, Dark). Regarding mech, I'm far from convinced that SH are the be-all-end-all that avilo raves about. Certainly they are strong, and certainly Rogue won with them but I think that has more to do with Rogue's skill than SH themselves. Macro was the deciding factor in both of the mech games. Also, Inno never tried battle mech, which I intuitively think would counter SH. Bluntly put, I simply don't think Serral has the macro to beat Inno. He has a better chance against Gumiho because Gumiho's bio is pretty trash, but I would call them even at best. Similar argument applies to Snute vs TY. soO defeated Stats, he can definitely beat Neeb (though I expect it to be somewhat close). herO beat Dark and went 3-4 against Rogue, he can most certainly defeat Elazer. Gumiho can beat Inno, sure, anything can happen in a mirror. But Inno has a far more impressive TvT record in recent times, and far more impressive form in general to boot. In general, the foreigners are facing an uphill battle. Certainly some of them could win. But is it likely? I really don't think so. Snute beat him, Serral can do it too | ||
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brickrd
United States4894 Posts
On October 02 2017 02:05 DieuCure wrote: It is, but 8 for each circuit. Not the most equal distribution, I grant it to you. dunno why it bothers people so much. it's the same in other sports that have separate leagues and divisions. for years in MLB (baseball) the american league was considered stronger than the national league and before that vice versa. the champions from each league still play off for the final even if one league is better. the idea that all prize money and tournament money should go to the top core of players is weird, counterintuitive, and regressive. if there aren't opportunities for B leaguers to take prizes and championships there's no reason for them to play | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
Snute beat him in an online Bo1 in Shoutcraft Kings, a tournament so notorious for overhyped upsets that TL wrote a (poorly-titled) article on the subject. Not exactly the strongest of evidence. Snute can win. Serral can win. They just aren't favored. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On October 02 2017 04:36 pvsnp wrote: You saw the bio TvZ that Inno played yesterday, right? And you remember the bio TvZ that Inno beat Serral with at GSL vs the World, despite throwing away 30 supply for free? I'm really not sure how you (or anyone) can conclude that Serral can defeat Inno when Inno has both beaten Serral and players far more skilled than Serral (Rogue, Dark). Regarding mech, I'm far from convinced that SH are the be-all-end-all that avilo raves about. Certainly they are strong, and certainly Rogue won with them but I think that has more to do with Rogue's skill than SH themselves. Macro was the deciding factor in both of the mech games. Also, Inno never tried battle mech, which I intuitively think would counter SH. If Inno plays bio, he can beat Serral any day. But I don't trust him to, every terran seems to think mech is the way. Now I'm not an avilo fan by any means, but SW-viper just destroys it. I haven't seen mech work anywhere since Inno beat Dark with it, so I can easily credit that to Inno suprising him, and Dark not preparing for mech As far as gumiho goes, his TvZ isn't even that good. I've been saying this for a while and he hasn't been able to sway my opinion, he won GSL of the back of TvT. Serral stomped him in the map test tournament the other day as well. I think Serral will beat Gumiho in the first round, whether he beats Inno or not is up for debate | ||
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lastride
2390 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12377 Posts
edit: Serral has the best chance probably | ||
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Diabolique
Czech Republic5118 Posts
On October 01 2017 23:19 Kerdinand wrote: So.... Ro8 only Koreans confirmed?  I dont think any foreigner but Neeb has a realistic chance of making his group.Still sad for sOs though  , would have loved to the him at Blizzcon again! Lets atleast hope his traitorous teammate Rogue can make something happen!As I expect, sOs will be playing at BlizzCon, that means, one of the Koreans before him will not be able to play, so the groups will shift and sOs will go to the group with Nerchio and Neeb. | ||
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