The first half of the Round of 16 delivered quite shocking results and set up two mirror matches for the Round of 8—but zerg advancement remains at zero. Once more ByuL has the opportunity to become the spearhead of his race, but he faces opposition desperate for victory and WCS points: while Dear comfortably sits in the top 8 of the ranks, Maru and MyuNgSiK—just as ByuL—need to advance to keep their BlizzCon chances alive. Who has the power to pull through?
It’s certainly going to be hardest for MyuNgSiK. Despite the odds being stacked against him time and time again, the protoss has shown remarkable strength by repeatedly advancing into the Round of 16. In the Round of 32 he showcased deadly PvP skills, even upsetting heavy-favorite Stats in the process. His mixture of aggression and knowledge of opponents and maps makes him a dangerous opponent, but he seems to lack the mental strength to put these abilities into action in later tournament situations. Is that why SK Telecom T1 haven’t fielded him in the Proleague playoffs? Do they really have more faith in untested rookie and former Prime colleague Zoun? If so, then that’s probably bad news for MyuNgSiK.
We haven’t seen him play since the Round of 32, so it’s probably safe to say that he’s been focusing entirely on preparation for this group. Maru, as his first opponent, will be confronted with the fruits/cheese of this labor. But really, how surprising could this be for him? Maru can train daily with sOs, a mind even more twisted and crazy than MyuNgSiK. In the past, he has overcome this opponent’s strategies in the past through sheer mechanical skill and exploitation of his indecisiveness. No, Maru doesn’t need to be afraid of MyuNgSiK. In fact, he doesn’t need to be afraid of anyone in this group. His year hasn’t gone great so far regarding individual tournaments and there’s a lot of pressure on him now if he still wants to make it to BlizzCon. But this is Maru—he probably doesn’t even care about most of this. He just concentrates on the game and the opponent.
The odds look quite good for him against MyuNgSiK. He still has solid TvZ, beating two zerg players in the Round of 32 and ByuL in his last Proleague match. Things might become complicated against Dear: the Samsung player defeated Maru recently, showing that his TvP is not unbeatable at all. Fortunately for Maru, the bracket seems to be in his favor: Dear and ByuL meet first, and the latter looks like the slight favorite.
In similar fashion, ByuL hasn’t had the best year of his career regarding results. Very differently from the terran though, he also fell off in terms of performance. While Maru is still considered one of the best of his race, ByuL lost this position during Legacy, unable to adapt to the new game over a long stretch of time. Onlynow has he able to make some impact, mostly by reaching deep into his chest of trickery—called ByuLshit by viewers everywhere—and regaining one of his greatest strengths: defensive play and ridiculously close holds followed by devastating counterattacks. As it has always been with this style the line between victory and defeat is blurry, so it’s easy to slip and fall on the latter at the wrong time. The CJ zerg did look solid in the Round of 32, defeating the hyped SpeeD as well as Dear in dominating manner. His Proleague results stayed average but he scored several high profile victories, as if he wanted to relay a message. Don’t forget about him so fast; ByuL always comes back.
Then there’s Dear, who certainly has the mettle to advance out this group. He currently sits in the top 8 of the ranking for BlizzCon, but his position isn’t set in stone. To lock his spot in Anaheim, the protoss needs to win just like everyone else. Unlike the others, he has a backup plan in SSL the next day.Yet the odds are unclear considering his opponent is Solar. Here I'd put as the underdog against ByuL due to how ByuL handed him in the Ro32. But Dear is strong all-around and capable of cutting through ByuL’s defense. The CJ player might not give him the initiative, forcing Dear into a defensive role.
Predictions
MyuNgSiK is certainly the underdog, while the other three players have quite even chances of going through. Maru can beat ByuL, the latter can beat Dear, and the latter can beat Maru—a classic game of rock paper scissors. There's a chance one of the pieces (or MyuNgSiK) is a shotgun in disguise, waiting to blast the competition away.
Almost identical predictions. Only difference is I think Maru will go 4-0. I don't think ByuL's got the ZvT to scar him.
I am interested to see how Dear does in reclaiming his honor though. All he talked about after losing to ByuL last round was that New Gettysburg loss and he was so tilted in the followup game that ByuL completely ran circles around him. Dear didn't hesitate at all in selecting him in the group nominations either...and he's only ever won 1 series against him. So that encounter should be cool.
Maru DESTROYED Byul in proleague last time they met. I hope Maru finishes in 2nd place though, if he does (and TY leads his group) that means all terran lower bracket in ro8. Plus if Maru wins in first then sOs and him can't go to blizzcon together, they both have to get to the finals minimum, and Maru is TvT god so the lower bracket would benefit him.
On August 17 2016 06:34 FrostedMiniWheats wrote: Almost identical predictions. Only difference is I think Maru will go 4-0. I don't think ByuL's got the ZvT to scar him.
I am interested to see how Dear does in reclaiming his honor though. All he talked about after losing to ByuL last round was that New Gettysburg loss and he was so tilted in the followup game that ByuL completely ran circles around him. Dear didn't hesitate at all in selecting him in the group nominations either...and he's only ever won 1 series against him. So that encounter should be cool.
He even said that it was the worst match of his career.
On August 17 2016 07:05 Fango wrote: Maru DESTROYED Byul in proleague last time they met. I hope Maru finishes in 2nd place though, if he does (and TY leads his group) that means all terran lower bracket in ro8. Plus if Maru wins in first then sOs and him can't go to blizzcon together, they both have to get to the finals minimum, and Maru is TvT god so the lower bracket would benefit him.
Either way, sOs has a high chance to play with his teammates again in semis, if not Maru, then it might be Rogue.
On August 17 2016 07:05 Fango wrote: Maru DESTROYED Byul in proleague last time they met. I hope Maru finishes in 2nd place though, if he does (and TY leads his group) that means all terran lower bracket in ro8. Plus if Maru wins in first then sOs and him can't go to blizzcon together, they both have to get to the finals minimum, and Maru is TvT god so the lower bracket would benefit him.
It's not very high chance that sOs and Maru can go to blizzcon together.
Let's assume one of them is champion so got one spot, and the other one is runner-up. Because runner-up only gets 2800 points, he has to win in the cross finals too. Then he will get 3800 point, plus the previous points (only 100) so he will have 3900 points in total.
Let's look at the rank. Dark/Zest/Stats/TY already have more than 3900 points. No.5 is Classic, he has just 3900 points now, consider he's still in both GSL and SSL, he's likely getting more points especially in his GSL group even he finish at 3rd he will get 200 more points. Solar/Dear has 3800/3600 points, but they will meet at the SSL quarter finals, so one of them must exceeds 3900 points. And one of Maru/sOs get 4000 points when he win GSL.
So there're 6 players already exceed 3900 points, plus Classic 95%+ will get more points in GSL. Other than that, Byun has a great chance to beat Young in GSL to earn another 600 points to make him 3900 points too. And Patience still has a chance to secure his spot as long as he can beat Zest in SSL.
So if you want sOs and Maru both in blizzcon, first thing is that they need to finish 1st and 2nd in GSL, plus the 2nd need to win in cross-finals, and then hope Byun not getting far in GSL and Patience not beating Zest. If that all happens, the 2nd may still need to play an extra decider match with Byun assume Byun beats Young.
On August 17 2016 07:05 Fango wrote: Maru DESTROYED Byul in proleague last time they met. I hope Maru finishes in 2nd place though, if he does (and TY leads his group) that means all terran lower bracket in ro8. Plus if Maru wins in first then sOs and him can't go to blizzcon together, they both have to get to the finals minimum, and Maru is TvT god so the lower bracket would benefit him.
It's not very high chance that sOs and Maru can go to blizzcon together.
Let's assume one of them is champion so got one spot, and the other one is runner-up. Because runner-up only gets 2800 points, he has to win in the cross finals too. Then he will get 3800 point, plus the previous points (only 100) so he will have 3900 points in total.
Let's look at the rank. Dark/Zest/Stats/TY already have more than 3900 points. No.5 is Classic, he has just 3900 points now, consider he's still in both GSL and SSL, he's likely getting more points especially in his GSL group even he finish at 3rd he will get 200 more points. Solar/Dear has 3800/3600 points, but they will meet at the SSL quarter finals, so one of them must exceeds 3900 points. And one of Maru/sOs get 4000 points when he win GSL.
So there're 6 players already exceed 3900 points, plus Classic 95%+ will get more points in GSL. Other than that, Byun has a great chance to beat Young in GSL to earn another 600 points to make him 3900 points too. And Patience still has a chance to secure his spot as long as he can beat Zest in SSL.
So if you want sOs and Maru both in blizzcon, first thing is that they need to finish 1st and 2nd in GSL, plus the 2nd need to win in cross-finals, and then hope Byun not getting far in GSL and Patience not beating Zest. If that all happens, the 2nd may still need to play an extra decider match with Byun assume Byun beats Young.
Yh I looked a the points but what I meant was it's impossible for both Maru and sOs to get to blizzcon if Maru finishes in 1st place. They have a chance of both being in the finals and then the runner up winning cross finals, but only if Maru finishes 2nd.
Still, with sOs in the upper bracket makes it a lot harder for Maru. sOs DESROYS his teammates when it comes down it, he always has. Wheras if Maru finishes in 2nd he faces Classic or TY (decent chance against them) then Ryung or Byun (certain win for Maru). So I think Maru doing 2nd would make it easier to get to the finals.
Tbh, I don't think Patience beats Zest (Zest PvP is just too good to lose to anyone other than Stats). Also I doubt Solar scores any more points (or Dear doesn't). Byun probably wont be Ryung but if he does I think he's in. That leaves the 8th spot most likely for whoever can get >3800 points. So it's possible, just unlikely (although I'd imagine if they both get to the cross finals they'd pull some shenanigans to get them both to Blizzcon)
On August 17 2016 07:05 Fango wrote: Maru DESTROYED Byul in proleague last time they met. I hope Maru finishes in 2nd place though, if he does (and TY leads his group) that means all terran lower bracket in ro8. Plus if Maru wins in first then sOs and him can't go to blizzcon together, they both have to get to the finals minimum, and Maru is TvT god so the lower bracket would benefit him.
It's not very high chance that sOs and Maru can go to blizzcon together.
Let's assume one of them is champion so got one spot, and the other one is runner-up. Because runner-up only gets 2800 points, he has to win in the cross finals too. Then he will get 3800 point, plus the previous points (only 100) so he will have 3900 points in total.
Let's look at the rank. Dark/Zest/Stats/TY already have more than 3900 points. No.5 is Classic, he has just 3900 points now, consider he's still in both GSL and SSL, he's likely getting more points especially in his GSL group even he finish at 3rd he will get 200 more points. Solar/Dear has 3800/3600 points, but they will meet at the SSL quarter finals, so one of them must exceeds 3900 points. And one of Maru/sOs get 4000 points when he win GSL.
So there're 6 players already exceed 3900 points, plus Classic 95%+ will get more points in GSL. Other than that, Byun has a great chance to beat Young in GSL to earn another 600 points to make him 3900 points too. And Patience still has a chance to secure his spot as long as he can beat Zest in SSL.
So if you want sOs and Maru both in blizzcon, first thing is that they need to finish 1st and 2nd in GSL, plus the 2nd need to win in cross-finals, and then hope Byun not getting far in GSL and Patience not beating Zest. If that all happens, the 2nd may still need to play an extra decider match with Byun assume Byun beats Young.
Yh I looked a the points but what I meant was it's impossible for both Maru and sOs to get to blizzcon if Maru finishes in 1st place. They have a chance of both being in the finals and then the runner up winning cross finals, but only if Maru finishes 2nd.
Still, with sOs in the upper bracket makes it a lot harder for Maru. sOs DESROYS his teammates when it comes down it, he always has. Wheras if Maru finishes in 2nd he faces Classic or TY (decent chance against them) then Ryung or Byun (certain win for Maru). So I think Maru doing 2nd would make it easier to get to the finals.
Tbh, I don't think Patience beats Zest (Zest PvP is just too good to lose to anyone other than Stats). Also I doubt Solar scores any more points (or Dear doesn't). Byun probably wont be Ryung but if he does I think he's in. That leaves the 8th spot most likely for whoever can get >3800 points. So it's possible, just unlikely (although I'd imagine if they both get to the cross finals they'd pull some shenanigans to get them both to Blizzcon)
Byun is actually very good in TvT, his practice vs Ryung recently is something like 9-1 as I've heard. Even vs Maru I think he has a chance too.
So sad that Maru sOs and Byun all have to fight in the only GSL to win a spot in Blizzcon. I'd be really happy if two of them can make it, but realistically the highest chance is still sOs and Maru both out..
More of my wet dream than anything, but the TvZ meta has finally shifted back to styles that Byul is good at, and MyungSiK has finally gotten the mechanics to back up his ingenuity.
These games of today show again how bad SC2 in reality is right now and how much the fundamental changes are needed.
Hope blizzard after 6 years realizes how bad that overpowered bio and the counters that other races were required to be given are for the game at the end of the day.
You just can't give an 80% T1 unit mix max mobility, autoheal, max dps vs air/ground and decent tankyness with marauders and then expect the counters to that not to have any impact on strategic variety and balance in general.
But I guess 80% of people who read this do not understand that and rather continue to blame the adapt just the same way the blamed the colossi (or anything else) the years before and believe they are experts. ... then wonder why mech isn't viable and why game is no fun to play.
Man, I really wanted ByuL to advance. Also, TL predictions for GSL has been terrible (sorry but it's the truth). Both Group A and C, they picked the 2 eliminated ones and Group B, only sOs was correct. So, basically, the ones TL didn't pick are more likely to advance.