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Kespa Cup S2 2015

How to Win a Cup
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Winning cups is hard. Some people have what it takes while others don't. There are players that do their best work in single elimination formats while other champions find it difficult getting any momentum going. So, for all those prospective cup champs, here is a quick guide on how to win in this very finicky format.

1. Qualify

One of the great things about cups, in Starcraft and in almost every other sport, is the opportunity for anyone to make it far. Unlike regular seasons that require consistency and longevity, all it takes is one smooth ride to make a splash. For example, in the FA Cup, the oldest football cup in the world, 8 teams have won the Cup while competing outside of the top flight. For comparison, that's basically like a Code B player winning the Kespa Cup. Sure, it sounds impossible, but the format means that it could happen someday. It hasn't happened yet, but one glance at qualifiers shows that even players lost in the wilderness of online tournaments can punch their way to the top.

In Season 1, several players who had hit a good vein of form managed to qualify for GSL, SSL and KeSPA Cup. Terminator, MyuNgSiK, FanTaSy and even Dear had been reviled as mediocre players, but all found a way into more than 1 tournament. However, most of them fell off quickly in the weekly tournaments, yet somehow managed to advance in the KeSPA Cup. FanTaSy memorably outwitted Zest; Terminator came within an inch of axing Life; MyuNgSiK stumbled his way past Rogue; only Dear succumbed to eventual champion herO. Upsets like these are what make cup tournaments so riveting, and players realize that once you're in, anything can happen.

This season, we have San, Pigbaby, jjakji, Impact, TRUE, and Flash. All are able players, but they've had a torrid time trying to make something happen in Code S or SSL. Expectations might be low for these players, but now that they've booked their ticket to KeSPA Cup, they have as good a chance as any to stir the pot. Will we finally see a Code B player win a premier Korean title?

2. Get Lucky

Of course once you get here you're going to need a little bit of luck. Getting a very bad matchup in the first round can be an immediate death sentence; single elimination brackets can be very punishing for favorites and rewarding for underdogs. In Season 1, Dark managed to avoid his handicapped ZvP until the final, where he lost against herO 3-4. On the other hand, PartinG received the misfortune of Soulkey in the first round, and the GSL finalist was out in 5 games. The way a bracket fills out always has an impact on the outcome of a tournament, and that unpredictability is a nice change of pace compared to round robin formats.

Unfortunately, there's very little you can do about luck. Sometimes you have it, sometimes you don't. The best you can do is pray to God or Zeratul or whichever diety you believe in and just hope for the best.

Or you could practice more, I guess.

3. Have A Plan

Contrary to popular belief, cup tournaments require a lot of planning too. Even though players might end up playing multiple series in a single day, the fact that brackets are laid out in front of you gives a very big advantage. You know who you're likely going to play two rounds ahead, and you can prepare for those players accordingly. There's a little bit of risk involved if different races and playstyles are present on your side of the bracket, but it's the same case even for GSL-style groups (you only play 2 out of 3 possible players).

One other reason planning matters in cup tournaments is the length of each series. Most cups in Starcraft 2 have Bo5 until the semi finals, and Bo7 in the finals. That means you end up playing fewer players in longer series, instead of a greater variety of players in weekly tournaments. On the one hand, this makes preparation easier. Fewer players need to be studied, assuming you can accurately predict who advances in your bracket. On the other hand, players are very different in various BoX lengths. For example, Classic has never lost a Bo7 in his career—against Maru, soO, Stats and Dream. He is 12-4 in Bo5+, making him one of the most dangerous players in this KeSPA Cup. Classic is quietly one of the best at planning a series, as evidenced by his bulldozing SSL Season 2 Final against Dream. The young terran was tipped to smash Classic to pieces with his macro and control, but Classic never allowed the game to make it that far. With some exquisitely refined cheeses, Classic smashed Dream in the early game and closed things out early. Planning like that is a talent as much as it is a skill, and there aren't any other players in this KeSPA Cup that can match him in that department.

However, there are a few players who can be quite clever in individual games. Pigbaby won his WCS AM title with some neat prepared builds against seemingly superior players. Rogue was once marked as the next great zerg due to his unorthodox transitions and midgames. soO, for all his faults, is still a supreme player that can adjust to almost anything—eventually. The latter has shown that individual game brilliance and series knowhow stem from two different trains of thought, and it'll be interesting to see whether any of these other players are on the same car as Classic. Playing your own game is nice, but not when your opponent is playing you.

4. Know Your Enemy

A big part of planning a series comes down to knowing your opponent. A plan shouldn't simply rely on your own qualities and your own tendencies. Yes, playing to your own strengths gives you a strong platform for success, but sometimes that isn't enough. Sometimes, you just end up facing a player better than you, and the only way to the next round is to climb over his dead body.

The best example of this rule is sOs vs MarineKing from last year's Hot6ix Cup. While it's arguable whether or not MarineKing was better than sOs at the time, the fact remains that MarineKing's run involved obliterating 4 of the 5 best protoss at the time: Stats, herO, PartinG and Zest. It was an unlikely run that relied on some weird barracks aggression and greed. Whatever it was that somehow compelled MarineKing back into relevance for three weeks, sOs had to find a way to solve it.

For his part, sOs had just beaten INnoVation by not falling for the robot's predictable attacks, and swept sKyHigh by just showing up to the booth. Momentum was arguably on his opponent's side, but everyone knew that sOs would have something up his sleeve.

And something, he did have. It ended up being one of the most embarrassing finals in Starcraft 2 history. MarineKing crumpled against sOs' MSC stalker zealot pressure and reminded us just why we didn't believe in the original kong in the first place. The most symbolic game of the series was game 3 on Merry Go Round where sOs played MarineKing like a flute. MarineKing, of course, went CC first, and sOs had no qualms about proxying his stargate. This alone was bad enough, but the Jin Air Protoss' back up stalker allowed him to zap every single marine on the map. Though his opponent was able to build a couple of turrets, voidrays soon appeared and the main was forfeit. Production facilities disintegrated, and so did MarineKing's fortitude.

While every other player faced a streaking MarineKing with the intention of beating him at his own game, sOs was the only one that was content to just bludgeon him immediately. Knowing your enemy allows you to formulate more effective builds, though I suppose it helps when your opponent is as stubborn as a mule.

5. Be Unpredictable

It feels kinda bad to say this, but Flash is basically MarineKing, only better worse has a title okay so they're basically the same. They have matchless mechanics, but they're two of the most stubborn players around. I still don't understand why Flash continues to SCV pull in TvP when he has all the tools to play more effective macro styles. I still don't understand why either player CC firsts against opponents known to cheese, or why either player refuses to scout opponents who enjoy using different builds in a single series.

On the one hand, playing predictably almost sounds like a plan. "I know what I'm good at, I'll keep doing it!" sounds like a good idea in most other games. There's no point in playing styles and builds that you can't execute properly, so you might as well just stick with what you know.

On the other hand, playing predictably is almost giving your opponent a plan. Starcraft 2 relies a lot on opening build orders and early-mid game transitions, and there is no single build that is safe or strong against everything. If your opponent knows you always open safe, then he will always open greedy. If he knows you always open greedy, then he will try to punish you with cheese. If he knows you always open with cheese, then he'll prepare a safe defense. Basically, you'll never win at rock-paper-scissors if everyone knows you have your hand glued into a rock.

Yes, there is a subtle mind game in playing your style on an unpredictable map—for example, CC first on a small map when you're known for CC first. But it only works if the opponent knows you're inclined to change things up. Without the threat of other build orders, it's impossible to con your opponent into a game of chicken with himself. It's not the roll of the build order dice that's dangerous, but the fact that the dice might be (or might not be) rolled in the first place.

Of the Kespa Cup Season 2 attendees, there are a few notable wildcards when it comes to how they play the game. Pigbaby has been an enigma since returning to Korea, and no one really knows for sure how he's going to play. Is he still going to rely mostly on all ins combined with prepared counter builds? Or has he completely revamped his style? Rogue is similarly unpredictable, but we already know that. He's just as likely to play roach hydra against protoss as he is to nydus his swarm hosts. ByuL, despite his crushing defeat in the GSL Finals, is likely to gamble in ZvP. Classic showed in the SSL finals that he isn't afraid to cheese in consecutive games if it's effective.

Which sets up the inevitable question: how many times will Flash's CC first get cheesed?

6. Be Unshakable

While the "Unshakable" trait is often associated with Mvp, many of his comebacks from backbreaking positions came in preparation based tournaments. After all, the man needed his rest between sets, and he played his best when he was allowed time to heal and learn. However, there is one other player that seems to find another gear when faced with adversity: Polt.

It's a quality we often see in his games. Whenever he's at a deficit, whenever the game is headed into an unwinnable base trade, Polt somehow finds a way. As one of the most intelligent players in the scene, Polt has an innate sense of how to find small advantages and how to utilize them. Yet his ability to bounce back doesn't rely solely on mental aptitude; Polt has also displayed the same Unshakable mettle as Mvp.

To see this, one only needs to take a look at his most recent title winning performance. In the Ro8, he was matched up against ForGG, the master of TvT. Polt had shown weakness in the mirror throughout the seasons—not least in his close shave against Kelazhur in the Ro32—and pundits all called the series in favor of ForGG. Yet Captain America would not be stopped so soon, and he somehow find a way to crawl past him in Game 5. In the semi finals, Polt found himself down 2 games to 1 and facing elimination against Bunny. The mirror had once again given him fits, and the Danish wonder had even scored in straight-up games. Yet Polt once again climbed out of his hole in order to reach the grand finals against Hydra. As is his wont, by Game 5 he was down 1-3. And that's when he switched it on. That Unshakable spirit. That indomitable courage. In three amazing games Polt matched Hydra at every turn. In three straight games Polt came within an inch of his life. In three savage games Hydra threw everything he could at a bloodied terran that refused to die. In the seventh game, somehow, Polt had survived.

No one at this season's KeSPA Cup has shown this quality befitting only of the greatest of champions. Curious comes close with his unrelenting desire to keep improving despite his career as the Code S Gatekeeper, but he has never convinced that he's good enough. soO came close in 2014, yet he always splintered when it mattered most. Flash and FanTaSy may have had it in Brood War, but they are still searching for it now. Classic has come back from the depths of despair and humiliation to be the first GSL and SSL champion, but it's too soon to tell. Maru has never faced such adversity, while herO has proven fragile against the right tools.

Yet all it takes is one tournament to create that legend, and all 16 players have the chance to do so.

by Soularion, Shtanjel, and banjoetheredskin

Curious vs Flash

In the twilight of Curious' career, the Gatekeeper of Code S has decided he wants to go out with a bang. After an impressive GSL run to the semifinals, where he lost to eventual champion Rain, Curious proved that he still has some gas left in the tank. After struggling to adjust to Heart of the Swarm, he finally looks comfortable studying his opponents and preparing a style to counter them.

In contrast, Flash has struggled to maintain a consistent status as one of the better Terrans in Korea, frequently suffering from spells of mediocrity and disappointing results off the back of his promising successes. Known much better for his mechanically sound yet ordinary play style, Flash wins primarily in macro games that allow him to showcase that talent. However, this predictability, and occasional stubbornness, is exactly the kind that Curious has thrived on picking apart. The future may not be all that bright for him either, though, as a weekend tournament format tends to play into the favor of players who don't rely too heavily opponent-specific builds, but rather diversity in their own style.

Prediction: Curious 3 - 2 Flash

Classic vs Rogue

During the Ro16 group drawings of S2SL Season 2, Classic was visibly vexed as many of his peers looked down on him. Even after successfully advancing through the first stage, ByuL still had the audacity to call him a bubble in their respective pre-match Ro8 interviews. Classic responded to the challenge not only by crushing him 3 – 0, but also by eventually winning the tournament. In retrospect, this win seems like the unavoidable result of Classic’s slow but steady climb towards his GSL championship form that we have been witnessing for the past couple of months. Furthermore, Classic is showing great confidence in the vZ matchup lately dropping only one map to Life in Proleague since April. Going up against another zerg, his Ro16 seems like just another day at work.

Similarly to Classic, Rogue has been on a constant rise. His results peaked in 2015 as he was able to make two GSL Ro8 and one S2SL quarterfinal run. Unlike his opponent, however, he displayed a certain level of insecurity in the matchup. Although he proved that he can go toe to toe against some of the top protoss in Proleague, he also dropped matches against players far below his level, like Hurricane in S2SL Season 2 Challenger and even PtitDrogo in Kung Fu Cup. If we take into account that ZvP is with just over 50% winrate his statistically weakest matchup and that his opponent has been crushing zergs left and right recently, we see how high a mountain Rogue has to climb in order to advance.

Prediction: Classic 3 - 1 Rogue

soO vs San

As a player, soO has the potential to be one of the greatest weekend warriors in the game, up there with Taeja and Life, because of his remarkably strong macro capabilities. In DreamHack Stockholm, he looked nigh unstoppable as he tore through to the finals without dropping a map. However, the reason soO will probably never be as good as Taeja or Life were in weekend tournaments is his uncanny inability to win finals. Until yesterday. Alright, so it was an online cup. But soO finally won a finals, against a teammate, Dream's TvZ no less, in the Leifeng Cup Monthly Final #3 without dropping a map. Add this performance to the fact that he's in both individual league tournaments again, it's starting to look like soO his reached another peak at which he could very well be a championship contender—except in ZvP.

Although the matchup has been difficult for all zergs recently, soO in particular has been struggling with a meager 55%. San made a name for himself in Heart of the Swarm largely because of his wickedly abusive and effective PvZ, and fortunately for him not much has changed to discourage such play. What Life proved to be his biggest weakness in the matchup, the turtle swarm host style, does not exist anymore. soO certainly has the might to go far in this tournament, but his vulnerability as early as the first round is not to be shrugged off.

Prediction: soO 3 - 2 San

herO vs jjakji

herO comes into this tournament as a two-time KeSPA Cup finalist - and champion of last season - with a 65% winrate in PvT across 2015 (with a majority of his losses being against Maru and Dream) and a heavy desire to break his recent stretch of bad results, which saw him go on a huge losing streak in Proleague. jjakji comes into this tournament as a giant underdog who failed out in every qualifier in 2015 and has largely been relegated to SBENU's b-team and a Leifeng Cup-playing Korean. Yet, the strangest thing of all is..

He's been winning against protoss. He beat Trap to qualify for GSL, beat Panic in Proleague, beat Billowy in IEM Qualifiers - and most strikingly of all - beat Creator and Zest (alongside Bbyong) to reach this event. Of course jjakji's recent results seem pathetic compared to herO, but this is /jjakji/. This is the aLive of GSL Championships. This is the man who's last premier event was in 2014. Yet, that premier - where he took top four, defeating First and MMA in one-sided series - was surprisingly stunning for the-then mYinsanity player. With his TvP looking sharp, this could be as good a chance as he'll ever get for jjakji to make his return into the scene, and to prove once and for all- yeah, Seed/Sniper are definitely worse GSL champions than him.

Prediction : herO 3 - 2 jjakji

ByuL vs Pigbaby

When it was clear ByuL would lose the GSL finals to Rain, it was also clear that he had run out of tricks in ZvP. Having relied largely up until that point on different mind games, hyper-aggressive strategies, and occasionally just countering his opponent, ByuL didn't have an answer to the solid style of the mYi Protoss. Fortunately for him, Pigbaby is no Rain, and has not had any results as of late to make anyone think he's outgrown his reputation of being a cheesy player himself. ByuL has shown that if he knows his opponent's tendencies, he does a good job of anticipating them and reacting appropriately, but has still struggled with gateway allins. It's how herO knocked him out of the last KeSPA Cup, and is representative of characteristic that pervades all of ByuL's play: greed.

Luckily for ByuL, however, if he can get past Pigbaby, his half of the bracket is loaded with good terrans and zergs, against whom his odds are much better. Pigbaby, on the other hand, although he too demonstrated an ability to tailor unique builds to his opponents, won't be able to rely on that in a tournament with little time to do so. If he shows up ahead of time with the myriad strategies he employed in WCS America Season 2 of 2014, though, then maybe the carriers, tempests, and mass observers will be enough to take him farther than everyone expects.

Prediction: ByuL 2 - 3 Pigbaby

Dark vs FanTaSy

Like the alpha wolf, trying to preserve his righteous spot, FanTaSy has been struggling to solidify his status in the SC2 scene following his successful Brood War career. After a disastrous 2014, when he almost fell off the radar, he left SK Telecom to join a foreign team Dead Pixels. When such a transfer shifted the career of many a player into decline, FanTaSy’s only started to rise. 2015 is his most successful year so far with solid results at Korean (Ro16 in both GSL and S2SL) as well as international tournaments (Ro8 at IEM World Championship). A testament to his form is definitely his GSL match against soO which he considers to be his best SC2 match ever played.

In every pack, the vacant positions of the elders are usually contested among the ambitious youngsters. Dark may have less experience, but his potential is undeniable, especially in ZvT where he boasts an impressive record of 26 wins over 7 losses this year. The trust his team puts in him in Proleague also speaks volumes. Sent out against Maru in the playoff finals, Dark beat the JinAir ace player and secured a crucial point for the subsequent SK Telecom win.

The current showdown comes as a repeat of their Ro8 match during the previous KeSPA Cup. The Terran player proved a formidable opponent, but Dark eventually knocked FanTaSy out and proceeded to place second in the cup. He edged out 3 – 2 against him after first taming his mech and then crushing his bio play with his unique corruptor style, suggesting the pup has adequately replaced one the former leaders of the pack.

Prediction: Dark 2 - 3 FanTaSy

Maru vs Impact

In many ways, Impact has come to represent many of the lower tier Koreans in the scene. Sure, he's had success (his Dreamhack Bucharest run, for example) but he's genuinely had trouble playing against the very top of the scene. He's managed to claw his way to a few wins over established players (especially HerO and DongRaeGu, which got him here), but Maru is an entirely different beast. Some players try to play macro against underdogs, relying on their skill and not any gimmicks to take the win. Not Maru.

Maru embodies not giving a damn about his opponent. You could be ex-teammate, or you could be the best protoss in the world- you're getting two raxed. He ruined Billowy and disposed easily of Sora, and Impact is the next on his list of victims. While a Bo1 - especially in a matchup where Maru has shown remarkable weakness to early-mid aggression - might be more forgiving towards Impact, a Bo5 is going to be a much tougher affair. Impact will have to pull no punches. This is one of the greatest challenges he's faced in his career, and a victory here means that the SKT Zerg is ready to follow in the footsteps of his teammates soO and Dark. But, for Maru? This is just another day. Another opponent. And, chances are- another victory.

Prediction : Maru 3 - 1 Impact

Dream vs TRUE

For all the praise we give Dream about his godlike TvZ - and the hype he received for it in the past - it's hard to forget that, at the end of the day, it only has a 50% winrate throughout 2015. His habit of failing to zergs in the Ro16 of GSL has crippled what was once one of the most terrifying matchups in the world, and left the otherwise-horrifyingly-efficient matchup with a big 'But..' attached to it. This matchup doesn't give Dream a chance to redeem his shortcomings in TvZ as much as it gives him a chance to say 'At least I'm not Cure'.

Still, it should be more than enough to take care of TRUE, who has largely been absent from the scene at top levels of play, and has (like Impact and jjakji) only starting to qualify recently. In TRUE's case, his recent surge has been largely on the back of his ZvP, getting him a GSL qualification over Seed, a 2-0 of PartinG and even lifting him to this tournament on the back of a 2-1 against Stats. Yet, Dream is not a protoss, and TRUE will have to - much like Impact - bring out every dirty trick he knows. With enough tricks up his sleeve, an upset is probably more possible than one thinks, and TRUE knows as many zerg tricks as practically anyone (aside from maybe ByuL), so watch out for this match. It might just surprise you.

Prediction : Dream 3 - 2 TRUE

Random Predictions

• soO will play insanely well, making everyone think he's recovered his 2014 form and will actually win a championship this time, only to lose to a teammate in the finals.
  
• Classic vs Rogue will involve proxy hatcheries or cannons in at least 4 games
  
• Dark and FanTaSy will play a messy and close series again, and Dark will win the last game with an allin because FanTaSy will still be too greedy.
  
• There will be three 40+ minute mech versus Zerg games
  
• Pigbaby does an outrageous build against ByuL that shouldn't work but does, and the trauma he suffers from losing that game causes him to lose one more before advancing 3-2.

Writers: lichter, Soularion, Shtanjel, banjoetheredskin
Graphics: shiroiusagi.
Editor: lichter.