WCS Season One
Challenger League

HuK vs State
MaSa vs Hydra
viOLet vs Xenocider
Suppy vs Bails

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Friday, Jan 23 5:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

HuK vs State

In many ways you could describe this match in terms of time.

You could say that this is a battle of the past and the present. HuK was one of the first foreigners to travel to Korea and compete in the GSL, where he found reasonable success considering the quality of competition. On the other hand, State has been living in Korea on and off for a few years, but he's yet to succeed in qualifiers for any individual leagues. Korea is a different place now, especially after the KeSPA switch, and State has discovered that the Korean foreign dream isn't quite what it used to be.

You could say that this is a struggle to return to greatness past. HuK has rediscovered his form after a difficult later half of 2012 and 2013, and he's been doing better in tournament qualifiers and online events. He finally reached another important semi final at Red Bull Atlanta, and he finally reached the playoffs of WCS America in Season 3. His commitment in staying in North America and competing in every available event has slowly improved his match fitness, and after a dip in results—and that dip was a permanent stint in Premier League, such is HuK's caliber—he's back on the ascendancy. This WCS season is HuK's opportunity to become a champion for the first time in 3 years. State, meanwhile, spent 2014 in the hyperbolic time chamber. In a way, it is an entire year lost because he failed to go far in any major tournaments. It was a year inside the hyperbolic timechamber of the Prime house, and this is the first time since late 2013 (IEM New York) that State has competed in an American major. Will he pick up where he left off, or will his year in Korea catapult him ahead of the pack?

Or, you could call this a fight for the future. State is the younger, arguably hungrier of the two players. Many have doubted the value of his Asian training, and this is his opportunity to show that it was not in vain. Very few know exactly how much he's improved, and 2015 is his time to shine. A return to Premier League after 2 years will be a step in the right direction, but one of the greatest North American players stands in his way. For HuK, this is not just a continuation in his story. This is his chance to rise from token foreigner representative in a Korean dominated tournament into a legitimate contender.

Unfortunately, one man will rue the present and one man will look forward to the next few months of competition. By all indications, HuK should have the advantage. He has always been a good PvPer and has remained competitive against Koreans. His 60% winrate in the matchup attests to this. Unlike him, State only posseses a 51% winrate in PvP. However, State did beat HuK 2-0 in the qualifiers, so anything can happen.

Prediction: HuK 3 - 2 State

MaSa vs Hydra

2014 saw only two non-Koreans make it to the playoffs of WCS America all year. While Scarlett and HuK must be lauded for their achievements in Season 3, it must also be recognised that both were swept out cleanly 3-0, completing the Korean domination of the semifinals. So it’s understandable that the Korean exodus of 2015 has left foreigners everywhere rubbing their hands with glee.

However, while many were forced to return home, Hydra made the trip the other way. A seven year veteran of CJ Entus, he joined up with the ever expanding ROOT Gaming squad at the end of 2014. While never hitting the heights of his glory days in Brood War, Hydra has reemerged as a respected zerg in Korea after a rough transition to Starcraft 2. He’s also a specialist at punishing any foreigners he runs into; a win rate of 85% is patently absurd, and shows that while he may no longer be a championship contender in Korea, WCS in 2015 is quite a different story. Flawless runs through the American qualifiers for both WCS and IEM Taipei signal his intentions for the year. In America, the Korean legacy may still live on.

On the other side of this Challenger clash is MaSa. The Canadian Terran’s story is one of constant contradiction. A player with a 67% lifetime win rate; but one who has never progressed beyond the opening stages of the WCS AM Premier League. A monster in qualifiers; but one lacking any notable results in the main event. On his day, MaSa is capable of beating anyone in America. However, the question that must be asked is whether he can push on. Like Hydra, there’s a significant dichotomy in MaSa’s results. A healthy win rate of 67% drops to an underwhelming 29% against Koreans. His only recorded series victory over a Code S level Korean came against aLive … in 2012. He’ll have to change that if he wants to progress here.

It’s unfortunate for MaSa that he’s landed possibly the toughest opponent in all of WCS Challenger, and doubly so given that this will constitute the third teamkill of Challenger so far. Hydra’s current record in series played against foreigners is an imposing 56-2, with both of those losses coming in Bo1 clashes. Unfortunately for the Canadian, I can’t see him denting that.

Prediction: Hydra 3 – 0 MaSa

viOLet vs Xenocider

Although viOLet didn't quite reach the heights of 2012 on his 2014 comeback tour, the Surgeon Zerg showed that even after his time off and unfortunate VISA situation, he could still be considered one of the best players in North America. He appeared rusty in Season 1 2014 when he lost to Top in a rather absurd series, but he reached the Ro8 the following season before falling to the TvZ wunderkind Heart. Semi finals finishes in 2 Red Bull stops and at a strong MLG Anaheim reconfirmed his place among the NA elite, but it did little to dispel the notion that viOLet's time dominating the Americas was over with the influx of talent in 2013 and 2014. Fortunately, the refreshed system for the new year has given him an opportunity to prove his doubters wrong and once again rise to contendership in WCS.

Known for his crisp control and use of roach hydra in ZvT, viOLet has slowly built momentum over the past year. Unfortunately he's had some difficulty figuring out how to beat terrans, and it remains his weakest matchup. viOLet is not immune to the guile of foreigners, as evidenced by his 2 series losses against qxc and MajOr in the IEM San Jose qualifiers. Even narrowing down his results, his winrate against foreign terrans is "only" 66%, but his Achilles heel shouldn't be a cause of concern at least until he hits Premier League. viOLet has been feeling far more positive lately and his active lifestyle has kept him in the right mindset even after his difficulties, so he remains one of the favorites to stake a permanent place in Premier League's later rounds.

That isn't to say Xenocider isn't capable of winning, however. Sure, the young Chinese American didn't have many interesting results in 2014 (in fact, liquipedia shows only 1 appearance in Challenger League under his results page), but let's not forget that he was one of the few foreigners to win a major event in 2013. It was the IEF 2013 and he only had to be Junbo (Korean amateur), Ret and Welmu to take home $10,000, but the tournament also had MadBull and current Proleague player TANGTANG in it. Since that fateful October day in 2013 though, he has done little to suggest that he could make the leap to Premier League for the first time in his career. To have to face viOLet is a tall order for any foreigner, but for someone with scant experience it is especially difficult.

As one of INnoVation's biggest fans, Xenocider's play veers heavily towards macro and 4M. He's quite skilled at it, and his 62% winrate against zergs is actually his best matchup. He went undefeated in TvZ in the qualifiers, but they were against Felvo, patnessdark, crayon, and one good player in hendralisk. Against elite competition like Hydra in the IEM Taipei qualifiers, he went 0-5. The result of this match, however, will likely fall somewhere in between. Xenocider should prepare for any roach hydra surprises that viOLet may offer, especially on maps with large 3rd base surface area. viOLet meanwhile needs to clean up his play and make sure that the post holiday rustiness he exhibited last year does not come back to bite him in 2015.

Prediction: viOLet 3 - 1 Xenocider

Suppy vs Bails

Suppy is an oddity within the NA scene—a player with immense potential (he almost dethroned PartinG at WoL's last battle.net championships) who simply hasn't gotten a good result in a long, long time. In the WCS America qualifiers, Suppy barely scraped by despite losses to Night and goswser (who he return 2-0'd in his qualification match), proving that he still had a long way to go, at least in ZvZ. Despite taking a pause from school in 2013, Suppy still hasn't grasped any results worthy of the potential he occasionally shows. Over 2014, he took games off of Polt and HyuN, and even 3-0'd aLive in Challenger League. These aren't the achievements of some no-name North American, destined to wallow in the pit that is the qualifier scene for all of eternity. Yet, when you look at Suppy's failures across both IEM and WCS, it's hard to put him as anything but. This series against Bails won't be an opportunity for him to rise, but it will be an opportunity for the youngster to gain some much-needed consistency.

Bails is one of the many players who came into the scene technically within the middle of 2012, yet didn't have much to note on until a good bit into HotS. Bails has served as one of the very many middling players within the North American scene for a while, sometimes beating players such as qxc (at MLG Anaheim) or JonSnow (at HomeStory Cup IX), yet not consistently proving himself to be past their level. However, he's started to raise some eyebrows in the past few months, having made a couple acceptable runs into WCS Challenger and even defeating his opponent tonight 2-0 at IEM San Jose. It's no surprise to see him here, but he hasn't yet proved to be ready for the perils ahead of him. A win against Suppy would go a long way towards pushing him ahead of the masses of fame-less Americans, yet it's only one step on a neverending climb.

This match will come down to consistency, and which player is playing better on the day. Suppy has historically had a lot more success (making multiple runs into Premier, alongside a few strong showcases in foreign events), but Bo5s have proved to be challenging for him in the past. On the other hand, Bails has—despite his recent spike in qualifiers—absolutely no results worth mentioning to his name. Perhaps it's a day where the up-and-comer crafts a place among WCS' thirty-two, or perhaps he'll simply be another newcomer to fall back down to the abyss that is the WCS qualifiers. Only time will tell.

Prediction: Suppy 3 - 2 Bails

Writers: lichter, peanuts, munch, Soularion.
Editors: lichter.
Graphics: v1.