EPTWCS EU Ro32 - Group D Preview
Countdown:
Despite the heavy influx of Korean talent into the continent, WCS EU has steadfastly proven difficult to conquer for all but the best imports. Group D offers us an all continental affair, and two local players will advance to the Ro16. For all four players, however, making it one round further will not be enough. For every foreigner professional, the dream is still crashing the Korean monopoly at Blizzcon and representing his country at the yearly showpiece. Every StarCraft 2 player's wish is to be standing on that Blizzcon stage, trophy in one hand and a big check in the other. That seems but an impossible dream, but listening to thousands of fans chanting his name is a worthy consolation. This is the last season of the year and the very last chance for all these players.
Foreigners undoubtedly have it hard as the e-sports structure that exists in Korea is close to non-existent elsewhere. This is why players such as Naniwa believed that the only way to become the best at the game is to practice in Korea, together with the Korean players.
Welmu on the other hand, is someone who has not practiced in Korea yet still manages to make it far in tournaments. Though he often falls short once he reaches the brackets, his ability to navigate group stages and European open brackets is nearly unparalleled among foreigners. Most recently, Welmu qualified as Finland's representative for the IsEF 2014 tournament, proving once again that he's Finland's best player. Serral may disagree with that statement, but as one of the few European players who've consistently made the round of 8 in WCS, Welmu's resume shines with a gold trim. After some bad internet problems and some mild illness, Welmu may or may not be as prepared as he had hoped. However, this is the last season of WCS this year and only a deep run and title contention will catapult him from 32nd place and into Blizzcon. With only few WCS events left before the big finale, this could be his last chance to stake his claim as the foreign hope. It always seems that way when he trumps the group stages of WCS, but he has so far always hit a brick wall during the playoffs. He's now been swept two season in a row in the Ro8 at the hands of San and ForGG, but he remains one of the few foreigners to consistently make it that far. We often call Welmu one of the best in Europe during the group stages of WCS each season, so it's difficult to imagine him falling this early. The true test will come once he has to play more than just Bo3s, but it seems like he'll be safe tonight.
Another player who resides in cold weather but lies a bit further to the east is
LiveZerg. Last season, LiveZerg surprised us all when he not only knocked out MMA in the round of 32, but also became the first player to advance from his group by taking down ForGG 2-0 in the winner's match. It was by far the most impressive outing for LiveZerg in WCS EU, and while the format has been replete with continental upsets, it has to be considered one of the finest of 2014. If LiveZerg can perform just as well as he did last season he has a big shot at making it out of this group. Last season he showed he was more than capable at playing a very reactive style, countering MMA's cheese and taking down ForGG with impressive viper play. This time around he has to prepare for more than just terran as he has opponents of all three races. Unfortunately, he faces a strong protoss player in a matchup that he's deceptively weak in. He has statistically padded it with wins in online cups, but his win rate drop to the 40's when only examining offline tournaments, major qualifiers and WCS. Of course, nary a person gave him a shot in the Ro32 last season and look what happened.The second zerg of the group is none other than
TLO. As one of the most frequent zerg streamers, he remains an excellent source of knowledge for those looking for zerg commentary. Despite being one of the most veteran Starcraft 2 players plying his trade in Europe, TLO has so far had a difficult time converting his experience into podium finishes. He still has no premier tournament wins under his belt even though he regularly participates in multiple tournaments with high finishes. TLO started the year strong as he made it made it to the round of 16 in WCS Season 1 and also made the semi-finals at IEM Sao Paulo, taking down Bomber 3-2 in the quarter finals. TLO then retreated for a while and was not seen in competition until HomeStory Cup IX where he fairly easily took out MMA. What's interesting about TLO and the way he functions is that on some days he will look completely unstoppable whilst at other times his game play lacks in almost every area. He himself has commented on this before and he has said over and over that he is very reliant on 'good days' and that at these times he feels close to unstoppable. Someone who does not have as many year's on his plate in SC2 as TLO does is uThermal, the Dutch prodigy.
uThermal has been a regular in WCS ever since the last season in 2013, but this is his only his second term in Premier League. Last season uThermal had a pretty rough beat down in the round of 32 as he lost against ToD in the final deciding match. Despite this setback, it was still a remarkable turn for him as he took out Mvp 2-0 and came within a game of booking his ticket to Cologne, Germany. This season, he makes another attempt at advancing to the round of 16, but he should have a little more like this time around. This group is arguably the easiest one he's found himself in, and he's in better shape than he was last time around. He was recently able to take out players like HuK, BBoongBBoong and Seed during the Red Bull Battlegrounds 2014 Online tournament and so if he brings that type of play to this group, he may be able to make it far.Overall thoughts:
All of these players have a good shot at making it out of this group but there's one player who stands out as the favourite to win it: Welmu. His recent results have been outstanding, and he's aced his Ro32 groups for 2 seasons running. Welmu always brings exciting strategies to the table and it will be interesting to see how the other players have prepared for him. The spot behind him is much less certain, and all three players have a claim. Despite his inability to repeat his heroics from WCS EU Season 1 2013, TLO has been unfortunate to fall into difficult groups. I have a feeling that this could be the season where he can get it done, but he will likely face uThermal in the final match. LiveZerg on the other hand surprised many by advancing to the Ro16 lasts season ahead of MMA and ForGG, but I feel like that may have been his peak.
Welmu > uThermal
LiveZerg < TLO
uThermal > LiveZerg
Welmu > TLO
TLO > uThermal
Welmu and TLO advance to the round of 16. 
