EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 44
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sharkie
Austria18772 Posts
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
On October 06 2014 17:26 sharkie wrote: Snute really only has himself to blame for losing out blizzcon Can't the same be said of any player? | ||
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FeyFey
Germany10114 Posts
On October 07 2014 01:12 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Can't the same be said of any player? jupp apart from the 16 that made it :p | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
On October 07 2014 01:12 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Can't the same be said of any player? Sure, but let's just say some people got way more chances than others. | ||
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HelpMeGetBetter
United States766 Posts
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Edpayasugo
United Kingdom2224 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
Winning Chances   herO has a ~ 9.48 % chance to win.  MMA has a ~ 8.34 % chance to win. INnoVation has a ~ 8.2 % chance to win. TaeJa has a ~ 8.2 % chance to win. jjakji has a ~ 8.17 % chance to win. Zest has a ~ 8.08 % chance to win. Polt has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win.  Life has a ~ 6.01 % chance to win. Bomber has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win. HyuN has a ~ 5.61 % chance to win. San has a ~ 5.58 % chance to win. soO has a ~ 5.23 % chance to win. Classic has a ~ 4.78 % chance to win. StarDust has a ~ 4.08 % chance to win. MC has a ~ 2.22 % chance to win. Jaedong has a ~ 2.07 % chance to win. Scarlett has a ~ 0.83 % chance to win. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. HerO has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win.Some Likely Finals Results ~ 1.29 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.22 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.18 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.17 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.1 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 + Show Spoiler [More] + ~ 1.07 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 1.05 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.99 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.95 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.93 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.92 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.92 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.92 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.88 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.86 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.85 % of the time soO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.82 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.82 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.82 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.81 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.79 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Classic gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.77 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.77 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.75 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.75 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.74 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.73 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.7 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Zest gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.69 % of the time Bomber gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.68 % of the time jjakji gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.68 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.67 % of the time MMA gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Bomber gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.67 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.67 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and StarDust gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.65 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.65 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and jjakji gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.65 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.64 % of the time Classic gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.62 % of the time Polt gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.62 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and soO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.62 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.61 % of the time HyuN gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Polt gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.61 % of the time Bomber gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and MMA gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.6 % of the time Zest gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.6 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.6 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Bomber gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.6 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and herO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.6 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HyuN gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 Some likely finals MMA vs TaeJa finals has a ~ 2.4 % chance CJ herO vs jjakji finals has a ~ 2.36 % chance MMA vs Zest finals has a ~ 2.27 % chance MMA vs Life finals has a ~ 1.95 % chance INnoVation vs Classic finals has a ~ 1.69 % chance | ||
The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 07 2014 03:31 The_Templar wrote: Can't wait to see that herO vs Jjakji finals! :D MMA vs TaeJa is slightly more likely, obv that's the one we're gonna see | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible. Here's some examples positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On October 07 2014 03:38 Die4Ever wrote: If you wanna check the probabilities of a Blizzcon finals just go to the Blizzcon page here http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=100 Go down to the bottom in the events table, and use the search filter like this "positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation" (without the quotes). Make sure you sort by probability. It is currently tracking 245 possible finals results, so if it doesn't show up then it's pretty unlikely to happen or maybe impossible. Here's some examples positive double 1st 2nd taeja innovation ~ 0.35 % of the time TaeJa gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and INnoVation gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.33 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and TaeJa gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 positive double 1st 2nd life san ~ 0.67 % of the time San gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and Life gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 ~ 0.41 % of the time Life gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and San gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Only 245? With 16 players, aren't there 480 possible finals results? (16*15 possible finals, 2 outcomes each) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 07 2014 03:50 The_Templar wrote: Only 245? With 16 players, aren't there 480 possible finals results? (16*15 possible finals, 2 outcomes each) No, it's 8 players in the top bracket and 8 on the bottom, 8*8, that's only 64 possible if the seedings were all set. I'm not sure how many are actually possible with the seedings not set yet, but I think 245 (well half as many since 245 is results) is pretty good. It doesn't have Pigbaby vs Hyun, but it does have Jaedong vs Hyun, Bomber vs Jaedong, and MC vs Hyun, so it's definitely got some good coverage. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On October 07 2014 03:55 Die4Ever wrote: No, it's 8 players in the top bracket and 8 on the bottom, 8*8, that's only 64 possible if the seedings were all set. I'm not sure how many are actually possible with the seedings not set yet, but I think 245 (well half as many since 245 is results) is pretty good. It doesn't have Pigbaby vs Hyun, but it does have Jaedong vs Hyun, Bomber vs Jaedong, and MC vs Hyun, so it's definitely got some good coverage. Yeah, but there are 46 brackets, so even though one match is already set (Stardust vs MMA), I figured there would be close to 480 final results. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 07 2014 04:00 The_Templar wrote: Yeah, but there are 46 brackets, so even though one match is already set (Stardust vs MMA), I figured there would be close to 480 final results. Even though only 1 match is set, I think some more players are already set to 1 side of the bracket. Hero and Pigbaby can only be seed #10, Scarlett can only be #13, Jaedong can only be #16. Zest can only be #2 or #3 which are both on the lower half of the bracket. Probably some others with a similar status too considering that #12 and #13 are on the same side of the bracket, so are #4 and #5, #10 and #11, #6 and #7, and #14 and #15. It's a very complex problem lol, I don't know how many possible finals there are, but I think it's tracking a large number of them, and all of the likely ones. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
99.6488784 So there's about 0.3511216 % remaining that is unaccounted for, which means it's tracking the vast majority of possibilities and certainly all of the decently likely finals. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
~ 0.02 % of the time herO gets 1st in Blizzcon 2014 and HerO gets 2nd in Blizzcon 2014 | ||
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e edgar
3 Posts
So the way aligulac is set up, it seems like it pretty consistently over-rates foreigners and Koreans competing in foreign countries. As such, the Blizzcon predictor shows a high chance of foreigners making the finals and foreign Koreans winning the tournament up until the moment it becomes mathematically impossible. For instance, Snute had something like a 50% chance of qualifying at one point but this seemed to be based on predictions that he would score really highly at Dreamhack against tons of top Koreans. Snute is amazing but 50% always seemed high. And then there's the fact that Scarlett still has a 17% chance of qualifying despite the fact that she has to win WCS America to do so. Keeping in mind that no foreigner has ever won a WCS tournament, this seems unlikely to actually have 17% probability (I'm rooting for Scarlett 100%, I'm just trying to be objective here. In fact if she pulls it off (which I think she can) she deserves much more credit than "oh that would've happened roughly 1 in 5 times anyway"). Finally, Innovation and MMA are as likely to win the tournament? Same for Jjakji and Zest as well as San and SoO? Wait what? | ||
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Popkiller
3415 Posts
why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though) | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17750 Posts
On October 07 2014 05:06 Popkiller wrote: yeah that's the problem I have with using aligulac for predictions. why not just wait until someone is a lock (mathematically impossible for them to be eliminated from top 16), and until they are a lock, you can list the scenarios where they are eliminated. (I assume these lists would be huge, though) You can pretty much already do this with the events, you can see what secures them and what eliminates them, and you can see events that increase or decrease their chances. You can think of the chances as relative if you don't like aligulac ratings or use the all players are equal setting http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0 I do wish Aligulac weighted online matches less though, and tweaked the curve of rating changes when a strong player faces a weak player, the weak player farming is much too strong. Does a bo7 count more for aligulac than a best of 3? | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
On October 07 2014 05:17 Die4Ever wrote: You can pretty much already do this with the events, you can see what secures them and what eliminates them, and you can see events that increase or decrease their chances. You can think of the chances as relative if you don't like aligulac ratings or use the all players are equal setting http://sc2.4ever.tv/?use_aligulac=0 I do wish Aligulac weighted online matches less though, and tweaked the curve of rating changes when a strong player faces a weak player, the weak player farming is much too strong. Does a bo7 count more for aligulac than a best of 3? yeah aligulac would then have a lot less issue with foreign Koreans being rated so highly. as a result in twisted your own stats to say that jjakji to be 5th in chances to win blizzcon when in reality he's the weakest player out of the 16. | ||
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