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TheCzarOfAll
United States170 Posts
On November 21 2013 04:38 las91 wrote: Masters was introduced at 2-3% of ladder population, it was never 20%. It was ORIGINALLY introduced at that size and it gradually inflated to around 9% and Diamond was the next 10% of the player pool. David Kim commented on it, if you don't believe us. http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/8728114254#13 | ||
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EleanorRIgby
Canada3923 Posts
On November 20 2013 17:01 19Meavis93 wrote: this quite a bit yeah, being masters since forever I can still stomp over masters, but it takes a lot of games to get into masters after decay has kicked me out every season again. last 2 seasons i hardly played and it ook 7 wins to get me back to masters | ||
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JustPassingBy
10776 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On November 21 2013 05:11 EleanorRIgby wrote: last 2 seasons i hardly played and it ook 7 wins to get me back to masters Remember that master MMR range is huge compared to other leagues. MMR range from bottom of master to bottom of GM fits ~1.7 times max decay on NA and ~2.7 times max decay on EU. | ||
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LordYama
United States370 Posts
I feel that my play has definitely not gotten worse over time, just slightly better as my APM, macro and scouting and response times have improved gradually. Now it's rare for any gold opponents I play to have sub-100 APM when the majority of them used to. I go through long stretches where every Protoss I play hits a really efficient immortal or blink stalker timing. And it's virtually a given that every Terran in Gold is a stutter-step micro master now. And the season opened with a LOT of players going for (well executed) cheesy all ins, cannon rush, 2rax bunker, 7pool spine rush etc. If korona's numbers are right and there are a lot lower proportion of plat and above than intended, then MMR decay policies may certainly play a big role, but I don't know why it's so hard to believe (without having numbers of how many actual games are being played and players are active) that a big effect is casual players quitting. If bronze and silver are always going to be the bottom 20% or so of players, then if all the former players at the "old" bronze-gold leagues quit, the new bronze-gold are going to be those at a skill level that USED to be associated with plat and above, SOMEONE has to be at the bottom. It just seems intuitive to me that the player base shrinking a lot has to be a huge part of the effect, and I don't know that there is any cure. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On November 21 2013 05:10 TheCzarOfAll wrote: It was ORIGINALLY introduced at that size and it gradually inflated to around 9% and Diamond was the next 10% of the player pool. David Kim commented on it, if you don't believe us. http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/8728114254#13 Target value was still 2% in start of HotS. But as league MMR ranges were so small during the first two HotS seasons (S12 & S13) it was easier to get to master league. And as there was no mid-season demotions, it got big in the end of the season. In start of S14 they changed the league offsets (MMR ranges for each league was increased, but the ranges are still small compared to old WoL ranges). They did not make changes during last season (S15) and it seems there was no changes for this season (S16) either (if there has been offset changes,they are very small. I will check this via calculations in a week or two from the MMR tool data). | ||
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iamcaustic
Canada1509 Posts
Here's my fancy attempt at graphs, based on AM region 1v1 data from nios.kr (June 1st, 2013 vs. November 18th, 2013). Basically demonstrates the changes in percentile thresholds at this point in time compared to the middle of this year. ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZaXMeoCMAEd2k3.png) Basically, if you got demoted this season, don't feel too bad about it. Chances are your On November 21 2013 06:44 korona wrote: MMR decay was introduced either when HotS launched or patch 2.0.x that was applied to WoL one month earlier. I saw its effects on some users' data already during the first two HotS seasons, but could not deduct the reason & did not spent more time to investigate. In start of the last season it got evident that there is a decay mechanism (lots of occurrences in S14 data). My first thought was that it has to be a bug in the ladder system as drops seemed too steep. But after more investigation it is clearly an intended feature (It would be interesting to know how they chose the current max decay value). Also Blizzard has not commented the issue publicly nor denied it. Start dates for HotS seasons: --- Initial offsets --- S12: 2013-03-12 S13: 2013-05-01 --- Offsets changed --- S14: 2013-06-10 S15: 2013-08-26 S16: 2013-11-11 For those interested, they can read more about MMR decay here.  | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On November 21 2013 05:34 iamcaustic wrote: Here's my fancy attempt at graphs, based on AM region 1v1 data from nios.kr (June 1st, 2013 vs. November 18th, 2013). Basically demonstrates the changes in percentile thresholds at this point in time compared to the middle of this year. + Show Spoiler + Basically, if you got demoted this season, don't feel too bad about it. Chances are your MMR didn't actually drop significantly. No. In start of 'S4/2013' (S14) the league offsets were changed. Last season (S15) there was no changes and it seems there was no changes this season (S16) either (if there was they are small). CORRECTION: You said that first graph was from June 1st? That is then from the end of 'S3/2013' (S13). S14 started on 2013-06-10. As the league offsets were different during S13, the distributions are not directly comparable. | ||
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Meepman
Canada610 Posts
This massive shift was all really sudden too, as far as I remember. | ||
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iamcaustic
Canada1509 Posts
On November 21 2013 05:44 korona wrote: No. In start of 'S4/2013' (S14) the league offsets were changed. Last season (S15) there was no changes and it seems there was no changes this season (S16) either (if there was they are small). This means the static league MMR thresholds have remained the same the whole period shown in your graph (I will check this season's offsets more carefully in a week or two). The distribution changes are caused by players' MMR changing. Not the MMR thresholds changing. Blizzard didn't announce any changes, but the effects are pretty apparent. You could very well argue that there's a glitch and the current distributions are unintended, but they are what they are. JaKaTaK also did a YouTube video outlining the very same thing. Nothing you said explains why 1 in 3 1v1 ladder players are currently sitting in Bronze when, officially, the Ladder is supposed to be aiming for 8% of players in Bronze. Are you saying nearly every player in the world saw their MMR drop down for no explainable reason? EDIT: korona updated their post. D: Gimme a min. EDIT 2: Okay, data from August 6th (no fancy graphs for now since I'm at work). It's not as intense as June 1 (thought for sure it was S4... maybe not now that I think about it -- this is why I gave dates as well), but a clear difference from the current season with the same concept: the lower leagues are currently inflated compared to previous seasons. | ||
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lightsecond
8 Posts
I have three friends I play regularly with. That makes three 2v2 teams, one 3v3 team and one 4v4 team. I think we don't play enough to compensate for the decay. The teams were all in Gold two or three seasons ago. But then, at the start of the last season they all got into bronze. What then happened is we won like 20-30 games in a row and got into Gold again. Most of the time we won decisively, it wasn't really fun to play. Then we got stomped pretty hard from ex-Diamond and Masters players. Let say we roll over some peope for 20 games and after that we get rolled over. I have the feeling we play (maybe?) 5-10 matches against equal opponents. Same thing again at the beginning of this season. I guess MMR decay affects each team independently (it certainly feels that way). But (all teams combined) we actually get enough practice to keep our skill level. My very subjective opinion is, that 50% of the time we spoil other people's fun and the other 50% our fun gets spoiled. I don't think it used to be this bad. To cut a long story short: I blame the fish-people ... erm I mean MMR decay | ||
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CutTheEnemy
Canada373 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On November 21 2013 06:01 iamcaustic wrote: Blizzard didn't announce any changes, but the effects are pretty apparent. You could very well argue that there's a glitch and the current distributions are unintended, but they are what they are. JaKaTaK also did a YouTube video outlining the very same thing. Nothing you said explains why 1 in 3 1v1 ladder players are currently sitting in Bronze when, officially, the Ladder is supposed to be aiming for 8% of players in Bronze. Are you saying nearly every player in the world saw their MMR drop down for no explainable reason? No. There has been two major offset changes. Start of S12 and start of S14. I have full MMR tool data records from all its users from the whole period. If there were changes I would have quickly noticed. For this season not enough data has yet been collected to calculate the offsets (for some leagues there are, but for lower leagues not yet. At the moment 9283 recorded HotS matches for this season). But in few weeks there should be enough data for lower leagues as well. But if there were larger changes, the user graphs would be erratic. The user graphs seem normal and promotions happen where they are expected to happen. The JaKaTaK's video contained lots of misinformation. Yes he presented nicely how players' league distributions have changed, but he thought it was because Blizzard had changed the offsets multiple times, which is not true. Also note that in your picture the first distribution was not from start of S14 like you claimed. It was from the end of S13. And the main reason for MMR drops is MMR decay. Find out more from: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429734 | ||
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Prog455
Denmark970 Posts
On November 20 2013 22:16 TheSayo182 wrote: And yes specially gold league is a mess Such a shame. I haven't played for some months now, but i used to be top Diamond, and i was under the impression that Gold and low Platinum was the best place to be if you wanted to have fun, because people didn't want to cheese their way through the ladder, as they did in basicly every other league. | ||
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iamcaustic
Canada1509 Posts
On November 21 2013 06:13 korona wrote: No. There has been two offset changes. Start of S12 and start of S14. I have full MMR tool data records from all its users from the whole period. If there were changes I would have quickly noticed. For this season not enough data has yet been collected to calculate the offsets (for some leagues there are, but for lower leagues not yet. At the moment 9283 recorded HotS matches for this season). But in few weeks there should be enough data for lower leagues as well. But if there were larger changes, the user graphs would be erratic. The user graphs seem normal and promotions happen where they are expected to happen. The JaKaTaK's video was full of misinformation. Yes he presented nicely how players' league distributions have changed, but he thought it was because Blizzard had changed the offsets multiple times, which is not true. Also note that in your picture the first distribution was not from start of S14 like you claimed. It was from the end of S13. And the main reason for MMR drops is MMR decay. Find out more from: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429734 I was just reading that MMR decay thread thanks to the two posts above yours. It seems to basically provide a resounding "yes" to my question: "Are you saying nearly every player in the world saw their MMR drop down for no explainable reason?" Well, I guess it'd be an explainable reason in this case, but what I'd really like to see explained is why Blizzard thought such a steep decay was a good idea. p.s. I also offered data from August 6th after your correction that June 1st was still 2013 Season 3, not 2013 Season 4 (I misremembered by just over a week). We can still see the disparity with the new data, but that's generally moot since the whole MMR decay thing has been explained. Do we know when MMR decay was introduced? | ||
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TheFlock
United States389 Posts
 Currently i am 11-1 and hoping to be promoted out again soon. And I have been checking my opponents profiles and most of them have been 1v1 gold in recent seasons as well | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On November 21 2013 06:22 iamcaustic wrote: p.s. I also offered data from August 6th after your correction that June 1st was still 2013 Season 3, not 2013 Season 4 (I misremembered by just over a week). We can still see the disparity with the new data, but that's generally moot since the whole MMR decay thing has been explained. Do we know when MMR decay was introduced? MMR decay was introduced either when HotS launched or patch 2.0.x that was applied to WoL one month earlier. I saw its effects on some users' data already during the first two HotS seasons, but could not deduct the reason & did not spent more time to investigate. In start of the last season it got evident that there is a decay mechanism (lots of occurrences in S14 data). My first thought was that it has to be a bug in the ladder system as drops seemed too steep. But after more investigation it is clearly an intended feature (It would be interesting to know how they chose the current max decay value). Also Blizzard has not commented the issue publicly nor denied it. Start dates for HotS seasons: --- Initial offsets --- S12: 2013-03-12 S13: 2013-05-01 --- Offsets changed --- S14: 2013-06-10 S15: 2013-08-26 S16: 2013-11-11 | ||
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NeThZOR
South Africa7387 Posts
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Cheerio
Ukraine3178 Posts
On November 20 2013 21:41 JustPassingBy wrote: The problem I noticed is that I get roflstomped in a lot of games and I roflstomp my opponent in a lot of games (meaning I play players which I am not supposed to play on ladder). That definitely wasn't the case a year ago. the way I see it: 1) the MMR deflation coupled with the reduction of the player base means that all players will be closer together in terms of MMR. 2) since the players' numbers are dwindling automatchmaking will pair up players of larger MMR difference more often. | ||
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DinoToss
Poland507 Posts
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