by Waxangel

Team MVP
#1 Seed: 11 – 5 Regular Season, 70 – 46 map score (+24)

As much as I feel bad for the Axiom players who won't be able to able to compete in the ATC playoffs after winning a hard earned #2 seed, I feel worse still for MVP's Bang, Billowy, Sniper, and NAKSEO. Together they combined for a map score of 32 – 18 in a season where Team MVP went 70 – 46.

And yet, none of them are going to the live finals. While it's understandable in the case of the recently retired Nakseo, the rest of the players have been passed over for MVP's "A-Team" of Dream, DongRaeGu, Super, and KeeN, who were the players fielded in the GSTL finals. It was something you could see coming ever since it was clear that Team MVP was running two different but partially overlapping teams for GSTL and ATC. The best players took care of the GSTL, while a hodgepodge of B-teamers and available A-teamers competed in ATC.

It's hard to blame MVP since it resulted in a #1 regular season finish in both leagues, and it might be their just reward for maintaining a huge squad of skilled players. But even they would have to admit that sending Keen, a player who hasn't played single match in ATC, feels a bit strange. Dream (13 – 7) and Super (7 – 5) have earned their keep, but the 3 – 3 DongRaeGu will probably be buying his teammates some nice souvenirs from Germany as a conciliatory gesture.

MVP Playoff Roster

Dream (13 – 7): Hardcore StarCraft II fans have long been intrigued by Dream's talent, and like many other Terrans he has really come into his own in HotS. Overshadowed by Keen for most of his career, Dream outshone his primary competition for the Terran Ace job on his team during the GSTL finals, going 2 – 1 compared to Keen's 0 – 1. He also advanced to Code S this season on the back of a 6 – 0 streak in Code A, making him the hottest player on Team MVP not-named-duckdeok.

Boasting incredibly strong, standard TvZ and TvP play styles, Dream's Achilles heel is his mediocre TvT. While he is fairly capable in the mid-late game of TvT, he is prone to coming out of the early game with big disadvantages. TvT sniping will be the key against Dream.

DongRaeGu (3 – 3): DongRaeGu has been very inconsistent as of late, but for better or for worse, he's still Team MVP's best Zerg player. On his best days he can turn back the clock and look like 2011 DRG, sniffing out and crushing his opponent's aggression before it happens, imposing his will on the map with his signature muta-ling play, and just dominating his opponent from start to end. And on other days he's getting run ragged by Bunny (no, not the Danish one). While Team MVP are unquestionably the favorites to win the entire tournament, DRG's unpredictable form will decide whether they are prohibitive favorites or just favored by a hair.

KeeN (0 – 0): One of the more interesting subplots of Team MVP is their unwavering confidence in Keen. Through all the Ups and Downs (figurative and literal) in his career, it's been pretty clear that MVP have always believed in him as their #1 Terran. He's almost always gotten the start over other Terrans in the GSTL, and he's frequently deployed in the ace spot when viewers hardly expect it. All of that suggests a player who is better in practice than he is on air – and Keen is already a Code S player!

While Keen will probably put in a solid-but-not-spectacular performance in Germany, Team MVP will hope that the European air will do the same thing for him as it did for Duckdeok and release more of his potential. Meanwhile, fans will be waiting for the ceremonies Keen has locked away until he can be happy with his performances again.

Super (7 – 5): Super (aka Vampire) is the de facto ace of Team MVP, going 9 – 1 in GSTL and being deployed as the ace in the grand finals. He's not as sexy as 2011 DongRaeGu, but he's pretty damn effective. In general, Super plays a more aggressive brand of Protoss, liberally mixing in all-ins to keep his opponents off guard and score easy wins. A better Duckdeok shall we say? It's not the most interesting description, but it might be the best one. And on that note...

duckdeok (3 – 3): The artist formerly known as Finale wasn't even supposed to be at the ATC finals until Blizzard/ESL managed to work it out so he just stays in Europe until Gamescom. Ah, that awkward moment when European fans realize the WCS EU champion doesn't even rate top four internally on his own team.

Still, how good you are internally and how good you are in tournaments are two different things. Duckdeok took a huge risk, got the chance of a lifetime, and made sure he f***ing seized it (he might have got some of his mom's kimchi on his sweater in the process). He's a 'winner,' and such intangibles seem to count in this strange, beautiful game.


Millenium
#5 Seed*: 10 – 6 Regular Season, 60 – 47 map score (+13)

*Advanced due to Axiom's forfeit

TakeTV was probably praying to god that Mousesports would make it to the playoffs to pull in those European viewers, but Millenium will still do a fantastic job at filling the role of the tournament's "All-European" team. Forget the fact that two of their key players hail from the USA and Korea. The team is French owned and refuses to publish press releases in English—how much more European do you want a team to be? (Alright, Millenium could also be Canadian under those conditions).

It's fair to say Millenium was a dark horse headed into the tournament, as it was strictly a middle-tier team in the WoL days despite having Stephano at his prime. However, the addition of the tireless ForGG and the growth of Dayshi into a Premier level player has seen Millenium rise to a new level. The Terran duo combined for an incredible 42 - 25 record in the regular season and put Millenium in the thick of the ATC playoff race. In the end, Millenium was just barely eliminated from the playoffs on the difference of one single map. But as unlucky as Millenium was to be eliminated from playoff contention, they were even luckier to be invited back in as Axiom declined to participate in the live finals for very extensively documented reasons.

Like Team MVP, Millenium also have a card up its sleeve. ToD, though having just played in a single match all season, is still technically Millenium's "Joker" (pronounced "mercenary") as per ATC rules, being registered at the beginning of the season. He is now booked for the ATC finals, and he will surely provide his old team with a huge boost.

Playoff Roster

ForGG (20 – 15): After sorting through his visa issues (aren't you glad you didn't hear about it, and that it never became a big story where people who had no power to change anything complained about it for pages and pages?), ForGG is finally headed back to Europe. While ForGG is certainly a good player, there's no doubt that he's just not as scary as he was when he first decided to move his base of operations. He's more 'feared in Europe' than 'feared in the world' now, even if he still commands the respect of Korean opponents.

ForGG's 20 – 15 record in the regular season is typical of his grind-it-out style, and he'll have to do some heavy lifting once again if his team is to have a shot at the championship. This first match against Team MVP might be his biggest chance to shine, as there is only one potential Zerg opponent (TvZ is his weakest match-up). Once the thread of DRG is eliminated, ForGG could definitely put a huge dent in the opposing roster.

XMG.ToD (0 – 1): Given Adelscott's lack of notable achievements in HotS, ToD giving Millenium a strong Protoss option is a godsend. ToD isn't exceptional mechanically, but his overall knowledge of the game and ability to understand situations and react accordingly (players of other races will read this as "ability to abuse Protoss") allow him to be a Premier League class player in HotS. Don't underestimate his ability to take a map off a strong Korean with a well executed all-in or by bogging him down in a super-long game.

Adelscott (2 – 4): The ace-revive rule means Adelscott's chances of being played are diminished, but one has to think that Millenium are sending him out to Krefeld for a reason. Even as the weakest member of the Millenium roster, he might still offer a valuable contribution as a sniper.

Goswser (7 – 10) : Like Team MVP, Millenium have a strong but unpredictable player as their sole Zerg. Although Goswser can't seem to hold a winning a streak for long, his overall trend is still strongly up, at least according to Aligulac.com. He comes into the ATC playoffs on a high note, having finished top eight at ASUS ROG summer with wins over Titan, VortiX, Lucifron, Naama, and a narrow 2 - 3 defeat against Stardust. Goswser could be the wild card that gets hot and delivers Millenium to the promised land.

Dayshi (22 – 10): For Millenium, the ATC playoffs will be all about how Dayshi converts his online performances to the live stage. With a 22 - 10 record and two all-kills, Dayshi was without a doubt the MVP of the regular season. Most importantly, he all-killed Team MVP during the regular season. Say what you will about cross-server lag; that is still a seriously impressive achievement.

It's not like Dayshi has been a flop in live tournaments. It's more like his progress has been going a bit more slowly than we would have hoped. Ro32 finishes in consecutive Premier Leagues and Ro16 finishes at two DreamHacks is impressive, but that hardly makes him someone Koreans should fear in a live game situation. This tournament is his chance to show Koreans that he is the real deal, and that he can crush them whether he's thousands of miles away or sitting face to face.

Head to Head

The two teams went 1 - 1 in the group stage, with MVP winning 5 - 1 on April 8th and Millenium winning 5 - 0 on June 12th. Honestly it's hard to read into such results much, given that they were played online, and because about 70% of MVP's roster is different from those matches.

Team MVP with its four Code S players and one European Champion are clearly the favorites against Millenium and any team in the ATC, but there are a few things Millenium havs going its way. The GSTL and its unusually high all-kill rate tell us that momentum really counts for a lot, and having a streaky player like Dayshi is a big boon in this situation. Also, ForGG has an unusual weakness against Zerg, but is capable of multi-killing as well if DRG can be neutralized early. Last but not least, Millenium will have the scouting and preparation advantage. I would love to say that Team MVP are giving this 100% and scouting out their opponents thoroughly, but the general attitude of Koreans towards foreigners tells me this probably isn't true.

Anything can happen in a best of nine, and I really do think Millenium has a real chance of taking this. We've seen upsets all the time in the all-kill format: it just takes two players getting hot. Nonetheless, the safe prediction is obviously for Team MVP and its incredible wealth of talent to go through to the winners' finals.

Prediction: Team MVP 5 - 3 Millenium

by CosmicSpiral

Victory, One Creep Tumor at a Time

Team Acer
#3 Seed: 10 – 6 Regular Season, 67 – 53 map score (+14)

It’s no secret that Team Acer is short on players and disadvantaged in choosing matchups. With only four available players to Team Liquid’s five, Acer cannot afford to sacrifice anyone in an attempt to take out one of TL’s heavy hitters. While they have an incredibly strong core in Scarlett, Nerchio, and MMA, I feel that Scarlett and Nerchio are not stylistically different enough (except in ZvT) to force Liquid’s hand in player matchups. Furthermore Liquid has the great benefit of having HerO, who can hold his own against the Zerg players and give MMA a run for his money.

However, all of this matters in the sense that the Acer and TL lineups are closely matched in terms of talent. With the exception of a few series, Acer never engaged in the unpredictable war of attrition that is as much a hallmark of Korean team leagues as are spectacular all-kills. Winning was the overall responsibility of three players and how they felt on any given day. If it wasn’t MMA, Scarlett had to step up; if Scarlett failed, then the world rested on Nerchio’s shoulders; if none of them won, Acer was doomed. Winning streaks were their hallmark of Acer’s run and a victory here will likely involve one of their three stars taking a considerable chunk of the overall sets.

For that strategy to work Nerchio must be on top of his game. Considering all expectations Nerchio was arguably the weakest core player on Acer throughout the ATC regular season, only going 15-16 while losing most of his ZvT games. His record reflects a somewhat erratic acceptance of HotS that hit its nadir during the early weeks of May, a trend that was happily reversed in June. Today Nerchio looks a lot like the Nerchio of old: an online cup monster with an affinity for roaches and the talent to wipe out Europe’s best with ease. His recent qualification for WCS EU and complete domination of Kaspersky Arena August suggest he may be a major force in this tournament.

Bly remains as the wild card whose influence may be nothing or everything. With Scarlett citing wrist issues as her reason for forfeiting her spot in WCS America Season 3, there will be more weight on Bly to make the most out of his appearance. So far his results have not been especially bad or good. He is 9-10 overall and proven to be solid, if not spectacular, when fielded as the starter. But his ZvZ hiccup rather complicates things. Bly has lost his last four ZvZ series and is generally having problems against many of the better players in the matchup. For him to be effective in this series, he needs to do more than trade games against a team who can afford to trade games. Winning two games or more in the mirror matchup should force TL to play their best before the situations spirals out of control. Alternatively he would contribute greatly by taking out Taeja or HerO with a snipe build.

Acer’s fortunes depend on whether they can wisely micromanage their lineup to seize advantages whenever possible. Against teams with overall weak lineups they prefer to send Bly first, interchange Scarlett and MMA in the second and third slots, and leave Nerchio last for cleanup. Strong teams who are willing to put their top dogs first receive slightly different treatment. Nerchio is pushed up the first slot and his results determine the rest of the lineup: a 2-0 or greater allows MMA to stay in the back while Scarlett/Bly enter, a 1-1 or worse results in MMA coming out second and Scarlett afterwards. Such a plan assumes that the trio can keep things until control until the ace match, where they can pick and choose with more freedom.

We Don’t Need No Stinking Backup

Team Liquid
#4 Seed: 10 – 6 Regular Season, 62 – 48 map score (+14)

Team Liquid should be sweating a little under the collar. While Acer’s lineup looks relatively paltry compared to TL and MVP, at least you can say that their presence here was due to a true team effort. All their members contributed at least 19 games during the regular season and went no worse than -1 in W/L ratio. MVP used 13 members overall with 11 of them having positive W/L records, the only exceptions being Swagger and TAiLs. Meanwhile TLO, Snute, Zenio, and Ret united to go 18 - 26 during the regular season. The only one to break even was Snute with his 9-9 score.

Let us pause for a moment and thank Providence again for Korean emigrants. While everyone else on the team struggled to find their groove, HerO and TaeJa combined for a 39-22 record and two all-kills during the regular season. Without them it would be safe to say that Liquid wouldn’t be here in the first place. Luckily they arrive after a string of strong performances that ought to carry over to the ATC finals. Taeja is coming off his second Assembly Summer win and barely missing out the finals of WCS America; HerO just qualified for WCS America’s Premier League in strong PvP games against ROOTState and Axiom_Alicia.

That is not to say the Zerg contingent should be disregarded. TLO, Snute, and Ret are all talented players who can play the ZvZ matchup more than adequately, and that will be essential if TL wants to pick apart Acer’s lineup. TLO and Snute especially stand out for their potential to take out MMA and Nerchio if the latter two are sent out early in the series. However, their lack of consistency makes it frustrating to predict anything. Ret has had his share of ups and downs in all matchups while TLO routinely falls flat against top competition. Even the golden haired Norwegian has fallen victim to bad games recently, looking sluggish and unfocused against Apocalypse in WCS NA Challenger League. At least one of them needs to show up and maintain Liquid’s main advantages.

With the invisible restrictions on Acer’s lineup, TL gets the opportunity to be flexible in their approach. Taeja and Hero are interchangeable in the second and fourth slot no matter how the Acer lineup develops. TLO, Ret, and Snute are all good matchups against Bly; they can go to Snute, Taeja or Hero if Nerchio/Scarlett goes first and picks up a kill; MMA could be dangerous if he gets going but it puts him in equal danger as the team needs him to force Taeja and Hero to come out. Historically we’ve seen HerO sent as early as first or second in order to counter a frontloaded lineup, which is a strong possibility if Acer decides to send out Nerchio first. And as mentioned before they can reserve HerO for a counterpick to MMA if the map is suitable.

The main key for success for Liquid in this series is neutralizing MMA as quickly as possible. He was the most consistent performer for Acer during the regular season (22-11 record with an all-kill over ROOT Gaming) and has been on a strong streak of results leading up to these finals. He especially bodes trouble for his zerg opponents as he is 36-11 in the matchup throughout HotS. For that reason Acer is in somewhat of a tough bind. It would be easy to panic if Snute or Ret took the first two ZvZ games and shove MMA into the fray to stop the bleeding: using a TvZ expert to win TvZs is a no-brainer. Yet this makes MMA a predictable response and vulnerable to preplanned strategies. This is a big concern when it comes to HerO, who can exploit MMA’s worst matchup despite it being HerO’s worst matchup as well. If TL can snipe him MMA becomes a nonfactor until the potential last match. That only leaves one matchup for everyone else on the team to focus on.

Prediction: Liquid 5 - 4 Acer