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It does indeed go by all time high. Nothing to do with their current rating. ^^
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Any further consideration/testing of decay?
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On July 14 2013 17:12 rift wrote:
Any further consideration/testing of decay?
My laptop died as I was in the process of testing the decay. I'll do further tests when I can retrieve my HDD. But if improvments there is, it won't come before a long time.
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Can you make a feature where Aligulac actually picks a result?
Say, for example, that there is a match. Player A vs. Player B
Player A 2-0 30%
Player A 2-1 40%
Player B 2-1 20%
Player B 2-0 10%
Then Aligulac actually picks one of those results, so that there is a 30% chance that it chooses Player A 2-0, 40% chance that it chooses Player A 2-1, etc. Then, if you try again, then Aligulac might pick a different result.
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Denmark3807 Posts
On July 17 2013 09:59 Entirety wrote:
Can you make a feature where Aligulac actually picks a result?
Say, for example, that there is a match. Player A vs. Player B
Player A 2-0 30%
Player A 2-1 40%
Player B 2-1 20%
Player B 2-0 10%
Then Aligulac actually picks one of those results, so that there is a 30% chance that it chooses Player A 2-0, 40% chance that it chooses Player A 2-1, etc. Then, if you try again, then Aligulac might pick a different result.
To what purpose?
Aligulac would always choose Player A 2-1 in the above scenario.
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On July 17 2013 14:48 Grovbolle wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2013 09:59 Entirety wrote:
Can you make a feature where Aligulac actually picks a result?
Say, for example, that there is a match. Player A vs. Player B
Player A 2-0 30%
Player A 2-1 40%
Player B 2-1 20%
Player B 2-0 10%
Then Aligulac actually picks one of those results, so that there is a 30% chance that it chooses Player A 2-0, 40% chance that it chooses Player A 2-1, etc. Then, if you try again, then Aligulac might pick a different result. To what purpose? Aligulac would always choose Player A 2-1 in the above scenario.
No, I mean if there is a 40% chance that Player A 2-1, then there is only a 40% chance that Aligulac chooses that result.
The purpose would be to predict an entire tournament. The thing is, at the moment, the player with the best bracket luck or the player with the highest vT/vZ/vP ratings will have the highest percentage to win the tournament. However, in real life, even if someone has a 60% chance to win against everyone else, that doesn't necessarily mean he will win the tournament.
It's sort of like simulating an entire tournament - that way, Aligulac does not simply choose the most favored player to win the tournament. Instead, it incorporates luck and allows for upsets to happen, making it more like a real tournament.
Sure, it's probably not the most useful feature, but it would definitely be cool.
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On July 18 2013 06:00 Mistakes wrote:First thing I noticed: Most specialised vP Most specialised vT Most specialised vZ on http://aligulac.com/periods/89/specialized*
You trolling?
Specialised is the British spelling of the word, both being considered correct.
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Denmark3807 Posts
On July 18 2013 05:54 Entirety wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2013 14:48 Grovbolle wrote:On July 17 2013 09:59 Entirety wrote:
Can you make a feature where Aligulac actually picks a result?
Say, for example, that there is a match. Player A vs. Player B
Player A 2-0 30%
Player A 2-1 40%
Player B 2-1 20%
Player B 2-0 10%
Then Aligulac actually picks one of those results, so that there is a 30% chance that it chooses Player A 2-0, 40% chance that it chooses Player A 2-1, etc. Then, if you try again, then Aligulac might pick a different result. To what purpose? Aligulac would always choose Player A 2-1 in the above scenario. No, I mean if there is a 40% chance that Player A 2-1, then there is only a 40% chance that Aligulac chooses that result. The purpose would be to predict an entire tournament. The thing is, at the moment, the player with the best bracket luck or the player with the highest vT/vZ/vP ratings will have the highest percentage to win the tournament. However, in real life, even if someone has a 60% chance to win against everyone else, that doesn't necessarily mean he will win the tournament. It's sort of like simulating an entire tournament - that way, Aligulac does not simply choose the most favored player to win the tournament. Instead, it incorporates luck and allows for upsets to happen, making it more like a real tournament. Sure, it's probably not the most useful feature, but it would definitely be cool.
That is not actually how the predict function works.
It also takes into consideration "what-if" scenarios.
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On July 18 2013 14:45 Grovbolle wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 05:54 Entirety wrote:On July 17 2013 14:48 Grovbolle wrote:On July 17 2013 09:59 Entirety wrote:
Can you make a feature where Aligulac actually picks a result?
Say, for example, that there is a match. Player A vs. Player B
Player A 2-0 30%
Player A 2-1 40%
Player B 2-1 20%
Player B 2-0 10%
Then Aligulac actually picks one of those results, so that there is a 30% chance that it chooses Player A 2-0, 40% chance that it chooses Player A 2-1, etc. Then, if you try again, then Aligulac might pick a different result. To what purpose? Aligulac would always choose Player A 2-1 in the above scenario. No, I mean if there is a 40% chance that Player A 2-1, then there is only a 40% chance that Aligulac chooses that result. The purpose would be to predict an entire tournament. The thing is, at the moment, the player with the best bracket luck or the player with the highest vT/vZ/vP ratings will have the highest percentage to win the tournament. However, in real life, even if someone has a 60% chance to win against everyone else, that doesn't necessarily mean he will win the tournament. It's sort of like simulating an entire tournament - that way, Aligulac does not simply choose the most favored player to win the tournament. Instead, it incorporates luck and allows for upsets to happen, making it more like a real tournament. Sure, it's probably not the most useful feature, but it would definitely be cool. That is not actually how the predict function works. It also takes into consideration "what-if" scenarios.
Hmm... I think the issue is that I'm not clarifying enough. Let's take a quick example - a 4-man tournament.
INnoVation vs. Shine, Mvp vs. Symbol
Currently, this is basically what Aligulac does:
INnoVation has a 95% chance against Shine
Mvp has a 60% chance against Symbol
INnoVation has a 60% chance of taking the tournament
Mvp has a 20% chance of taking the tournament
Symbol has a 18% chance of taking the tournament
Shine has a 2% chance of taking the tournament
This is my suggestion:
Implement a simulation option which simulates the entire tournament. So when we get to INnoVation vs. Shine, INnoVation has a 95% chance to win. Well, use a random number generator between 1-100. If the number is 95 or less, then Aligulac chooses INnoVation. Same thing with Mvp vs. Symbol, except anything under 60 goes to Mvp (because Mvp has a 60% chance to win). The consequence is that every simulation will be different - some simulations will have INnoVation winning, other simulations will have Mvp winning. You would be able to use the Retry button to rerun the simulation.
Hopefully that makes sense? I just think it would be a cool feature, not essential or useful, but awesome nonetheless.
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Can you make a Group of Death Calculation?
In the WCS Europe Ro16 Groups Thread, in the Group of Death poll, it is almost even between group B and D.
But there can be only one group of death, and I need to know which one it is. Can you guys help me?
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How do you measure the deadliness of a group? By the chance difference between every player?
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On July 18 2013 17:21 graNite wrote:
How do you measure the deadliness of a group? By the chance difference between every player?
I guess there is a lot of different answers to that, but in my opinion the group of death is the group where it is most likely that a top player (a player expected to go to Ro2/Ro4) will get eliminated.
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Is there a way to see the race distribution over the top 100 pro players?
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On July 18 2013 17:19 Da_Baeverforce wrote:Can you make a Group of Death Calculation? In the WCS Europe Ro16 Groups Thread, in the Group of Death poll, it is almost even between group B and D. But there can be only one group of death, and I need to know which one it is. Can you guys help me?
We actually had an internal discussion about this a couple of months ago, so it's most definitely a possibility, but probably not the highest priority. 
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Denmark3807 Posts
On July 18 2013 16:43 Entirety wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 14:45 Grovbolle wrote:On July 18 2013 05:54 Entirety wrote:On July 17 2013 14:48 Grovbolle wrote:On July 17 2013 09:59 Entirety wrote:
Can you make a feature where Aligulac actually picks a result?
Say, for example, that there is a match. Player A vs. Player B
Player A 2-0 30%
Player A 2-1 40%
Player B 2-1 20%
Player B 2-0 10%
Then Aligulac actually picks one of those results, so that there is a 30% chance that it chooses Player A 2-0, 40% chance that it chooses Player A 2-1, etc. Then, if you try again, then Aligulac might pick a different result. To what purpose? Aligulac would always choose Player A 2-1 in the above scenario. No, I mean if there is a 40% chance that Player A 2-1, then there is only a 40% chance that Aligulac chooses that result. The purpose would be to predict an entire tournament. The thing is, at the moment, the player with the best bracket luck or the player with the highest vT/vZ/vP ratings will have the highest percentage to win the tournament. However, in real life, even if someone has a 60% chance to win against everyone else, that doesn't necessarily mean he will win the tournament. It's sort of like simulating an entire tournament - that way, Aligulac does not simply choose the most favored player to win the tournament. Instead, it incorporates luck and allows for upsets to happen, making it more like a real tournament. Sure, it's probably not the most useful feature, but it would definitely be cool. That is not actually how the predict function works. It also takes into consideration "what-if" scenarios. Hmm... I think the issue is that I'm not clarifying enough. Let's take a quick example - a 4-man tournament. INnoVation vs. Shine, Mvp vs. Symbol Currently, this is basically what Aligulac does: INnoVation has a 95% chance against Shine Mvp has a 60% chance against Symbol INnoVation has a 60% chance of taking the tournament Mvp has a 20% chance of taking the tournament Symbol has a 18% chance of taking the tournament Shine has a 2% chance of taking the tournament This is my suggestion: Implement a simulation option which simulates the entire tournament. So when we get to INnoVation vs. Shine, INnoVation has a 95% chance to win. Well, use a random number generator between 1-100. If the number is 95 or less, then Aligulac chooses INnoVation. Same thing with Mvp vs. Symbol, except anything under 60 goes to Mvp (because Mvp has a 60% chance to win). The consequence is that every simulation will be different - some simulations will have INnoVation winning, other simulations will have Mvp winning. You would be able to use the Retry button to rerun the simulation. Hopefully that makes sense? I just think it would be a cool feature, not essential or useful, but awesome nonetheless.
I get what you are saying, it's basically a simple simulation, I am sure it is doable, however not currently a priority.
On July 18 2013 17:19 Da_Baeverforce wrote:Can you make a Group of Death Calculation? In the WCS Europe Ro16 Groups Thread, in the Group of Death poll, it is almost even between group B and D. But there can be only one group of death, and I need to know which one it is. Can you guys help me?
We have discussed a lot what defines a group of death, since we still doesn't have a clear definition (highest average rating of players, highest discrepancy between top and bottom, best 3/4 players etc.), we haven't yet defined a GoD metric.
On July 18 2013 17:27 graNite wrote:
Is there a way to see the race distribution over the top 100 pro players?
No but this is a great idea, I'll make it a priority.
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On July 18 2013 17:54 Grovbolle wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 17:27 graNite wrote:
Is there a way to see the race distribution over the top 100 pro players? No but this is a great idea, I'll make it a priority.
Great, how long does it take to implement stuff like this?
I would like to see the distribution over time to see the balance of races over time.
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Can the "compare" option show up in the main menu instead being hidden in the "predict" area?
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Denmark3807 Posts
On July 18 2013 19:26 graNite wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 17:54 Grovbolle wrote:On July 18 2013 17:27 graNite wrote:
Is there a way to see the race distribution over the top 100 pro players? No but this is a great idea, I'll make it a priority. Great, how long does it take to implement stuff like this? I would like to see the distribution over time to see the balance of races over time.
Depends mainly on how much time our programmers have on their hands. TheBB has his hands full with his thesis untill end of august I think
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EPT
