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Northern Ireland26224 Posts
Finally! IT IS HERE. Fucking winrates, some actual data that we can use rather than just looking at the games.
Nothing here really surprises me logically, but some of the numbers surprised me I guess. I'd considered PvT the most balanced matchup statistically at the highest level currently, and in terms of not being retarded.
I thought the Immortal push trend and timings would somewhat keep PvZ statistically even, but it's actually still allowing Toss to have a higher winrate, so that was a surprise in terms of the numbers I guess!
TvZ surprised me because of the gap between T and Z being fucking massive lol, far bigger than when Blizzard 'fixed' Zerg (it was 51-49 in favour of Terran iirc when that happened)
How I see it, personally. ZvT is close to broken, and it's not due to the winrates. I could accept a period of T being really unfavoured as they tried to figure out new approaches, but I think that period should have passed by now, instinctively. Granted not all the stats are from really recent times, so maybe any kind of upward curve could continue.
Protoss are so, so fucked if Zergs ever figure out the Won/Won/Won 
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On December 03 2012 23:00 Psychobabas wrote:
TvZ looks legit
No imbalance here
not sure if srs.
kind of glad I'm not playing this game right now, it's sad that there are those who think this game is "balanced"
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Not using using the red/green for  /  AND W/L would make the graph easier to read...
Might also be cool to see a full chart with all 3 winners:
491 total  wins, 25.1%
738 total wins, 37.7%
728 total wins, 37.2%
*always remember: "figures don't lie, but liars do the figuring."
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Wow, ZvT in all it's glory O_o
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Northern Ireland26224 Posts
On December 03 2012 23:36 Grapefruit wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 23:24 Doodsmack wrote:
For the OP to say there's nothing special despite the ZvT percentage is kind of silly. He sounds like a Zerg player, considering what he said about ZvP also. I'm a Terran and I don't think I need to comment on the TvZ data, it speaks for itself. I just mentioned TvP because it really stood out that most wins come from the absolute top tier Terrans, while the MU seems to be Protoss favored for the rest. The other wins/loses of the other MU are pretty evenly distributed between all levels of players.
I think TvP has a pretty fair dynamic, maybe it's a bit too hard from the Terran perspective to get to that level mechanically mind. Once you're there though, TvP is pretty doable. In matches with Code S Protoss players, vs Code S Terran players, I always feel that it's satisfying that either player even in a standard game can properly stomp the other.
With Zerg, you get the impression that outside of timings, when Protoss and Terran players manage to win it's a bit of a slugfest. That's a purely instinctive thing, but it's a bad sign that even when Terran are winning games and playing really well, it usually seems to be visibly difficult to do so.
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Another thing to note that might be changing the perception of balance for Terrans is the lack of games with Terran. Note that this is perception not balance. It might be more helpful to think of it in terms of whether Terran is doing well as a race, or in terms of whether it is good to be a fan of Terran.
The total number of MU's were the following. (Wish we had mirrors included.)
ZvP = 869 games
TvZ = 536 games
PvT=552 games
This means that Z's saw 1405 games of their race.
P saw 1421 games
And T saw 1088 games.
As Nony posted recently, for perception it does matter whether you see your race winning or not.
Z saw 738 games of their race winning.
P saw 728 games of their race winning.
T saw 491 games of their race winning.
For tournament viewers that like to see their race winning (Qxc, I'm looking at you) In terms of "is the race is doing well or not?", the lack of T games and the lack of games where T wins is probably fueling the discussion.
Edit: Tip of the hat to ninja y0su
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On December 03 2012 23:51 Wombat_NI wrote:Finally! IT IS HERE. Fucking winrates, some actual data that we can use rather than just looking at the games. Nothing here really surprises me logically, but some of the numbers surprised me I guess. I'd considered PvT the most balanced matchup statistically at the highest level currently, and in terms of not being retarded. I thought the Immortal push trend and timings would somewhat keep PvZ statistically even, but it's actually still allowing Toss to have a higher winrate, so that was a surprise in terms of the numbers I guess! TvZ surprised me because of the gap between T and Z being fucking massive lol, far bigger than when Blizzard 'fixed' Zerg (it was 51-49 in favour of Terran iirc when that happened) How I see it, personally. ZvT is close to broken, and it's not due to the winrates. I could accept a period of T being really unfavoured as they tried to figure out new approaches, but I think that period should have passed by now, instinctively. Granted not all the stats are from really recent times, so maybe any kind of upward curve could continue. Protoss are so, so fucked if Zergs ever figure out the Won/Won/Won
PvZ has ALWAYS been an awful matchup, balanced on a razors edge. Flaws in the race design manifest in gigantic uncertainty in the matchup, which would also pop up in their mirrors as well. Because of the buffs made over the past year (queens and immortals), those mirrors have leveled out, but never fixed PvZ. Protoss moved from a gateway concentrated timing to a robo concentrated timing, while Zerg overlord buffs negated super tricky openings.
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Northern Ireland26224 Posts
Also, another problem with trying to balance the game across the full gamut of skill levels is kind of starkly illustrated. It needs re-evaluation, at least in terms of trying to get to 50-50.
Terran is thought of as being hard, but with tangible rewards. However, if it's harder to play mechanically at the lower levels, the 'reward' of pushing through is being able to hopefully play like the Korean Terrans. If Korean Terrans are getting destroyed, where is the balance there?
As a Protoss player, I would 100% take say, PvZ to be 45-55% balanced against my own race, if Protoss could play in a wider variety of styles that also enabled better players more ways to outplay their opponent outside of timings. This is preferable to a 50/50 split that is 'balanced' so heavily currently on the Immortal Pushes and the Brood Lord/Infestor turtle style.
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tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right
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Is there any data on korean x korean matches only?
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On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right
what graph are you reading?
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On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right
You mean TvP , TvZ is 40/60.
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On December 04 2012 00:06 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right what graph are you reading?
The full of sarcasm one 
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On December 04 2012 00:07 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:06 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right what graph are you reading? The full of sarcasm one
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PvZ = allin or die trying. So exiciting to watch...
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So, Korean protoss have 52% against foreign Zergs.. good to know.
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On December 04 2012 00:06 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right what graph are you reading?
With Blizzard's glasses, you will see a HUGE graph, that's a smily face.
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I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push.
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On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push.
Nah, lategame is fine if you are a korean terran.
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On December 04 2012 00:14 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push. Nah, lategame is fine if you are a korean terran.
Or Thorzain (at least versus Naniwa).
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EPT
