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Hey TL, it has been quite a while since we got the last TLPD Win Rates and it doesn't look like they are coming very soon.
So, I figured someone had to do the work, and I hope you appreciate it, because it really took quite a while to go trough all these games.
Well, without any further ado, here it is:
+ Show Spoiler +
There's nothing really special to note, except that there was a tendency that most of the TvP wins were gotten in the later stages of the tournaments by a relatively small number of players (you know which ones I talk about).
I kept all the data, so I might continue this if I manage to find the time for it.
Enjoy.
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That's a great effort, must have taken a lot of work.
You may want to change the coloring of the last three win-rate circles. You could make it blue/red/yellow-grey (the colors commonly associated with the three races) to better make visible the win-rates for the different races.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
surprised that zvp is so close, must be all those parting foreigner stomps haha
thanks for the work!
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not too suprised about the tvz win rates
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I feel the ZvP stat is a bit misleading because several of these tournaments were lacking top Korean zergs. If any of Life, Leenock, Violet, Sniper, Hyun, Symbol etc. had have attended WCG, Dreamhack, WCS and IEM these stats would have been much different.
But thanks anyway!
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On December 03 2012 22:06 opterown wrote:
surprised that zvp is so close, must be all those parting foreigner stomps haha
thanks for the work!
Mid-game imba vs late-game imba make for a balanced match-up, it would seem.
But here comes the explanations for why protoss is actually weak versus zerg, despite the results.
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Interesting charts. I am not suprised to see P>Z despite all the protoss tears...
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On December 03 2012 22:09 onPHYRE wrote:
Interesting charts. I am not suprised to see P>Z despite all the protoss tears...
ZvP has been the most balanced matchup stats wise for ages now, that's not what people are complaining about..
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Very surprised to see the TvP winrates. I was expecting it to be similar to TvZ (which is pretty sad to be honest  )
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Great work man! Interesting that ZvP is so even, I guess that's the wonwonwon.
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Kinda had the feeling those convenient Blizzard statistics that show neither race having advantage were false...
It is really good to have something besides what Blizzard says. I know it is a lot of work but it would be great if you could continue making the stats.
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Thank you for writing this up. It is very informative
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On December 03 2012 22:12 malaan wrote:Very surprised to see the TvP winrates. I was expecting it to be similar to TvZ (which is pretty sad to be honest )
I dunno, i feel like TvP is in a pretty decent spot right now balance wise. Seeing it being close to perfectly 50/50 was kinda surprising though o_O Other then that these stats pretty much prove what most people know already, TvZ is in a really bad spot, PvZ is very much so balanced stats wise like it has for the majority of 2012 but is riddled with balance issues (wonwonwon being damn near unstoppable vs broodlord infestor being damn near upstoppable, kinda evens things out i guess).
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But never forget this my dear people: It´s not all about win/loss ratios.
TvZ: ouch
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On December 03 2012 22:09 onPHYRE wrote:
Interesting charts. I am not suprised to see P>Z despite all the protoss tears...
Many of the wins were Korean protoss (barely) beating foreigner zergs. Looking at the last GSL where the skill level was even says a hell of a lot more about balance- ZvP: 19-10 (65.5%).
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The huge ZvT stomps terran had to take in the last two GSTL seasons are not even included here. This shows at a large sample size, that the TvZ is very ill at the moment. And if you think about the fact, that we had some stable even winrates in the middle of the year while it got really bad in the past two months, this is even more harmless than the actual situation.
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wow tvz is fucked royally. maybe we will get the proposed buff after all.
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On December 03 2012 22:07 tomatriedes wrote:
I feel the ZvP stat is a bit misleading because several of these tournaments were lacking top Korean zergs. If any of Life, Leenock, Violet, Sniper, Hyun, Symbol etc. had have attended WCG, Dreamhack, WCS and IEM these stats would have been much different.
But thanks anyway!
Have to agree.
For the top zergs it's really not that difficult for them to run you over.
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On December 03 2012 22:17 tomatriedes wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:09 onPHYRE wrote:
Interesting charts. I am not suprised to see P>Z despite all the protoss tears... Many of the wins were Korean protoss (barely) beating foreigner zergs. Looking at the last GSL where the skill level was even says a hell of a lot more about balance- ZvP: 19-10 (65.5%).
But this is a too small number of observations, especially since observations are not independent of each other!
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51475 Posts
Lol PvZ is Protoss favored xD hahaha so funny.
It's interesting that Terran don't complain as much as Protoss yet Terran have the worst win rate ^_^ oh well.
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On December 03 2012 22:23 Greenei wrote:
wow tvz is fucked royally. maybe we will get the proposed buff after all.
Naw blizzard thinks its still perfectly balanced according to their data and there is nothing wrong with infestors
Thats what happens when they try to balance around ladder games. They go can back to balancing their rocks
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Excellent data, thanks for compiling.
Any chance you have the data broken out so that we can see how win rates have adjusted month-over-month since the queen patch? I'd be interested to see if ZvT, which is the matchup most people have concerns about, is improving or getting worse lately.
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Alot less terran matches though, believe the numbers are gonna go down if we had more matches.
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Queen and ovi buffs were marketing maneuvers by Blizzard preparing for HOTS.Period.
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Would be interesting to see how many entries overall there were from each race. Considering how many ZvZ's we were seeing in the past months.
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Thanks for all the work! 
One question; are these the stats for maps/individual games won or bo series? For example, would a 2-0 score in a bo3 contribute 2 wins or 1? I think it is 2, which would be consistent with how TLPD does it (I think).
Stats can be useful but without looking at context can be misleading. Two of the best Terrans (Mvp and Taeja) have been suffering wrist problems recently. I know Mvp has had problems for a while but they seem to have been very bad recently, forcing him to withdraw from IPL for example. There has also been MMA's problems with the Slayers drama and he has not been near his best either.
I don't think those three alone make up the difference, but it is an example that stats don't tell the whole story.
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On December 03 2012 22:12 malaan wrote:Very surprised to see the TvP winrates. I was expecting it to be similar to TvZ (which is pretty sad to be honest )
As noted by OP, TvP wins are all by the same players, there's like 2-3 guys in the world who can win TvP consistently, for the others it's indeed as hopeless as TvZ.
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On December 03 2012 22:07 tomatriedes wrote:
I feel the ZvP stat is a bit misleading because several of these tournaments were lacking top Korean zergs. If any of Life, Leenock, Violet, Sniper, Hyun, Symbol etc. had have attended WCG, Dreamhack, WCS and IEM these stats would have been much different.
But thanks anyway!
No offense but if you gonne play the "if x was there or y wasn't there" game you basically try to change the stats to fit your personal opinion.
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Russian Federation216 Posts
Another funny example of Zerg domination, 3 events where top level of koreans (of each race) were attending
MLG - ZvZ Finals
GSL - ZvZ Finals
IPL - ZvZ Finals
xD
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Russian Federation216 Posts
On December 03 2012 22:41 Assirra wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:07 tomatriedes wrote:
I feel the ZvP stat is a bit misleading because several of these tournaments were lacking top Korean zergs. If any of Life, Leenock, Violet, Sniper, Hyun, Symbol etc. had have attended WCG, Dreamhack, WCS and IEM these stats would have been much different.
But thanks anyway! No offense but if you gonne play the "if x was there or y wasn't there" game you basically try to change the stats to fit your personal opinion.
He is talking it right.
Is it fair to judge balance about WCG 2012 event where basically was only Parting and MKP out of top players? Same with BWC (korean P against foreigners). Of course not
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On December 03 2012 22:39 speknek wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:12 malaan wrote:Very surprised to see the TvP winrates. I was expecting it to be similar to TvZ (which is pretty sad to be honest ) As noted by OP, TvP wins are all by the same players, there's like 2-3 guys in the world who can win TvP consistently, for the others it's indeed as hopeless as TvZ. Well, substract data from top 3 players of each race and post it here if you think it will make difference.
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On December 03 2012 22:02 m0ck wrote:
That's a great effort, must have taken a lot of work.
You may want to change the coloring of the last three win-rate circles. You could make it blue/red/yellow-grey (the colors commonly associated with the three races) to better make visible the win-rates for the different races.
Might do it later on.
On December 03 2012 22:12 malaan wrote:Very surprised to see the TvP winrates. I was expecting it to be similar to TvZ (which is pretty sad to be honest )
As I said in the OP, roughly 30% of the wins were gotten by less than 5 different players.
On December 03 2012 22:34 ShamW0W wrote:
Excellent data, thanks for compiling.
Any chance you have the data broken out so that we can see how win rates have adjusted month-over-month since the queen patch? I'd be interested to see if ZvT, which is the matchup most people have concerns about, is improving or getting worse lately.
Will do that some time later, might take a while. Maybe when December is over.
On December 03 2012 22:37 Melliflue wrote:Thanks for all the work! One question; are these the stats for maps/individual games won or bo series? For example, would a 2-0 score in a bo3 contribute 2 wins or 1? I think it is 2, which would be consistent with how TLPD does it (I think). Stats can be useful but without looking at context can be misleading. Two of the best Terrans (Mvp and Taeja) have been suffering wrist problems recently. I know Mvp has had problems for a while but they seem to have been very bad recently, forcing him to withdraw from IPL for example. There has also been MMA's problems with the Slayers drama and he has not been near his best either. I don't think those three alone make up the difference, but it is an example that stats don't tell the whole story.
Every game was counted individually.
On December 03 2012 22:39 -Kira wrote:
Useless numbers.
How come?
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I think Zerg is advantaged in the marathon tournaments that currently make out most of the tournament scene since they can play standard every game and have a good shot at winning. In terms of player specific preparations I feel Terran can do a lot to even things up, but that's only really the case in long term tournaments like GSL.
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Hehe guyz it's top best players in the world, so b4 whinning think that if people menaged to get gm as terran/protoss and your stuck in diamond, that's not the result of the game being imba lololol. I have many friends with poorn skills claming imba all the time , it's just easier to point out imba than say I'm not good enough. In LoL people whine about teamates being bad right, in sc2 it's 1v1, so I guess u figured out my point.
Great tournament, I'd prob expect infestor nerf anyways but not sure if it will bring down the whinners because even when gsl was all about TvT , players were saying zerg op so I guess at this point it doesn't matter that much.
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I appreciate the effort to compile and present this data, but you cannot draw any rational conclusions from this information at all.
Just looking at the tournaments, there are massive skill disparities among the players. To point out some glaring examples, you have game data from DreamHack Bucharest 2012, World Cyber Games 2012 and GSL Code S Season 5, Code A and Up & Downs in the same sample group which is absolutely ridiculous.
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On December 03 2012 22:50 Saechiis wrote:
I think Zerg is advantaged in the marathon tournaments that currently make out most of the tournament scene since they can play standard every game and have a good shot at winning. In terms of player specific preparations I feel Terran can do a lot to even things up, but that's only really the case in long term tournaments like GSL.
This is TvZ for the last season of GSL:
+ Show Spoiler +
38.2% Set Winrate for Terran against Zergs (34W 55L)
At least for the last season of GSL Terrans were performing extremely bad vs Zerg. Or Zerg were performing really well.
If we jump back one more season things looks a lot more balanced with 47% Winrate for Terran vs Zerg (47W 53L)
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On December 03 2012 22:46 pprrii wrote:
Another funny example of Zerg domination, 3 events where top level of koreans (of each race) were attending
MLG - ZvZ Finals
GSL - ZvZ Finals
IPL - ZvZ Finals
xD
This reminds me of the GomTvT era; for Zerg of course. 4 Terrans in Top 4.
Having said that, I still have this stigma of ZvZ being shit (I just never gave it a chance to begin with, either); but the recent ZvZs aren't so bad to watch.
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TvZ looks legit
No imbalance here
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On December 03 2012 22:46 pprrii wrote:
Another funny example of Zerg domination, 3 events where top level of koreans (of each race) were attending
MLG - ZvZ Finals
GSL - ZvZ Finals
IPL - ZvZ Finals
xD
Interesting sidenote to that, they were all different Zs participating and winning. This isn't a case of "Life beats the crap out of every body!"
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Italy12246 Posts
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On December 03 2012 23:00 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:46 pprrii wrote:
Another funny example of Zerg domination, 3 events where top level of koreans (of each race) were attending
MLG - ZvZ Finals
GSL - ZvZ Finals
IPL - ZvZ Finals
xD
Interesting sidenote to that, they were all different Zs participating and winning. This isn't a case of "Life beats the crap out of every body!"
What about Leenock? He was in two of those finals, that seems like a butt kicking to me XD.
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you guys should prepare urselves for the up coming GSL World Tour with ZvZvZ all day lol
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On December 03 2012 22:57 Yello wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:50 Saechiis wrote:
I think Zerg is advantaged in the marathon tournaments that currently make out most of the tournament scene since they can play standard every game and have a good shot at winning. In terms of player specific preparations I feel Terran can do a lot to even things up, but that's only really the case in long term tournaments like GSL. This is TvZ for the last season of GSL: + Show Spoiler +38.2% Set Winrate for Terran against Zergs (34W 55L) At least for the last season of GSL Terrans were performing extremely bad vs Zerg. Or Zerg were performing really well. If we jump back one more season things looks a lot more balanced with 47% Winrate for Terran vs Zerg (47W 53L)
Even though it's a much smaller sample size, this number is far more accurate imo. Due the closer skill level of the players and higher skill level overall.
I would also be very curious of the percentage of the Terran wins that came from 2 rax.
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Well, we also get to a point where TvZ winrates are carried by very few individuals. (like at IPL5 where only Bomber and Polt where more or less the saving grace for terran), but Protoss is gonna face the same fate. Creator was the only Protoss to win a PvZ series in the last GSL Code S!
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The issue with tournament winrate is that there's a general tendancy towards 50% in the long run, no matter if the MU are imbalanced or not.
This is why it's more clever to judge balance based on top3 or top5.
I think I will post a thread on this issue tonight.
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Good read,
but I am sure this will turn into balance shitfest after page 5
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Thank you for your work. Just one small request: could you please make the numbers for the % winrates a bit bigger? So I/we can read them more easily without enlarging the pic.
And well, it looks like the age of the swarm has come. But lets just kick back and watch a bit more of ZvZ. Don't make hasty balance changes 
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For the OP to say there's nothing special despite the ZvT percentage is kind of silly. He sounds like a Zerg player, considering what he said about ZvP also.
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On December 03 2012 22:30 C[h]ili wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:17 tomatriedes wrote:On December 03 2012 22:09 onPHYRE wrote:
Interesting charts. I am not suprised to see P>Z despite all the protoss tears... Many of the wins were Korean protoss (barely) beating foreigner zergs. Looking at the last GSL where the skill level was even says a hell of a lot more about balance- ZvP: 19-10 (65.5%). But this is a too small number of observations, especially since observations are not independent of each other!
Actually it isn't completely. 30 is a "statistically relevant" number. Yes he's 1 off, but that doesn't introduce 15% margin of error. You can draw conclusions on a population of 2 million with a sample of 100 (or even 30). Or 25, depending on who you ask actually.
"Independent of each other" doesn't matter imo since the other games were all played with each set considered 3 matches I believe. Same method of sampling.
But yeah korean zergs didn't go to too many international events over that time i think, and we've seen foreign and korean balance be skewed away from each other before.
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On December 03 2012 23:22 xTrim wrote:
Good read,
but I am sure this will turn into balance shitfest after page 5
Of course it will, because balance is currently shit. 
Personally, I'd much rather be talking about how awesome the GSL finals were, and IPL as a whole.
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On December 03 2012 23:24 Doodsmack wrote:
For the OP to say there's nothing special despite the ZvT percentage is kind of silly. He sounds like a Zerg player, considering what he said about ZvP also.
I'm a Terran and I don't think I need to comment on the TvZ data, it speaks for itself.
I just mentioned TvP because it really stood out that most wins come from the absolute top tier Terrans, while the MU seems to be Protoss favored for the rest. The other wins/loses of the other MU are pretty evenly distributed between all levels of players.
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Not surprising for the TvZ result. That being said, I'm glad to see most matches are balanced. Remember if these are pooled from tournament top players will influence the results as they will have more zerg matches.
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prime examples of misleading winrates imo. tvz is obvious of course but the tvp and pvz winrates arent really showing the truth.
i guess blizzard does a good job with their asymmetrical balance concept...
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I definately believe zerg is too strong now but you can't make that conclusion from data like this.
Note that almost every tournament has a qualification. Thus race representation is not equal and the results will always gravitate towards 50/50 for each matchup.. If terran is underpowered there will simply be less terrans which will be better players though and on average they will have 50/50 results..
Qualification procedures tend to predate the tournaments by quite a big margin though, for example you qualify quite a long time ago for a MLG, IPL or GSL. This means the qualification balance can be quite different than the balance during the tournament, for example terran was overrepresented in GSL even after they got underpowered because there were so many code S terrans before. Since the GSL makes it easier to qualify if you were code S the racial makeup of the GSL lags behind the current balance.
All in all this results in these figures only giving a current trend and not saying anything about actual current balance. Zerg has definately gained ground recently but based on these data alone that could very well be just because the tournaments where flooded with less skilled terrans who got to qualify because T was too strong before.
Of course we also know racial representation in the recent tournaments which should really be combined with these data. Zerg placing so highly in qualification is a much better indicator they are overpowered now than zerg actually winning more than 50% in the tournaments itself.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
Finally! IT IS HERE. Fucking winrates, some actual data that we can use rather than just looking at the games.
Nothing here really surprises me logically, but some of the numbers surprised me I guess. I'd considered PvT the most balanced matchup statistically at the highest level currently, and in terms of not being retarded.
I thought the Immortal push trend and timings would somewhat keep PvZ statistically even, but it's actually still allowing Toss to have a higher winrate, so that was a surprise in terms of the numbers I guess!
TvZ surprised me because of the gap between T and Z being fucking massive lol, far bigger than when Blizzard 'fixed' Zerg (it was 51-49 in favour of Terran iirc when that happened)
How I see it, personally. ZvT is close to broken, and it's not due to the winrates. I could accept a period of T being really unfavoured as they tried to figure out new approaches, but I think that period should have passed by now, instinctively. Granted not all the stats are from really recent times, so maybe any kind of upward curve could continue.
Protoss are so, so fucked if Zergs ever figure out the Won/Won/Won
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On December 03 2012 23:00 Psychobabas wrote:
TvZ looks legit
No imbalance here
not sure if srs.
kind of glad I'm not playing this game right now, it's sad that there are those who think this game is "balanced"
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Not using using the red/green for  /  AND W/L would make the graph easier to read...
Might also be cool to see a full chart with all 3 winners:
491 total  wins, 25.1%
738 total wins, 37.7%
728 total wins, 37.2%
*always remember: "figures don't lie, but liars do the figuring."
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Wow, ZvT in all it's glory O_o
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 03 2012 23:36 Grapefruit wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 23:24 Doodsmack wrote:
For the OP to say there's nothing special despite the ZvT percentage is kind of silly. He sounds like a Zerg player, considering what he said about ZvP also. I'm a Terran and I don't think I need to comment on the TvZ data, it speaks for itself. I just mentioned TvP because it really stood out that most wins come from the absolute top tier Terrans, while the MU seems to be Protoss favored for the rest. The other wins/loses of the other MU are pretty evenly distributed between all levels of players.
I think TvP has a pretty fair dynamic, maybe it's a bit too hard from the Terran perspective to get to that level mechanically mind. Once you're there though, TvP is pretty doable. In matches with Code S Protoss players, vs Code S Terran players, I always feel that it's satisfying that either player even in a standard game can properly stomp the other.
With Zerg, you get the impression that outside of timings, when Protoss and Terran players manage to win it's a bit of a slugfest. That's a purely instinctive thing, but it's a bad sign that even when Terran are winning games and playing really well, it usually seems to be visibly difficult to do so.
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Another thing to note that might be changing the perception of balance for Terrans is the lack of games with Terran. Note that this is perception not balance. It might be more helpful to think of it in terms of whether Terran is doing well as a race, or in terms of whether it is good to be a fan of Terran.
The total number of MU's were the following. (Wish we had mirrors included.)
ZvP = 869 games
TvZ = 536 games
PvT=552 games
This means that Z's saw 1405 games of their race.
P saw 1421 games
And T saw 1088 games.
As Nony posted recently, for perception it does matter whether you see your race winning or not.
Z saw 738 games of their race winning.
P saw 728 games of their race winning.
T saw 491 games of their race winning.
For tournament viewers that like to see their race winning (Qxc, I'm looking at you) In terms of "is the race is doing well or not?", the lack of T games and the lack of games where T wins is probably fueling the discussion.
Edit: Tip of the hat to ninja y0su
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On December 03 2012 23:51 Wombat_NI wrote:Finally! IT IS HERE. Fucking winrates, some actual data that we can use rather than just looking at the games. Nothing here really surprises me logically, but some of the numbers surprised me I guess. I'd considered PvT the most balanced matchup statistically at the highest level currently, and in terms of not being retarded. I thought the Immortal push trend and timings would somewhat keep PvZ statistically even, but it's actually still allowing Toss to have a higher winrate, so that was a surprise in terms of the numbers I guess! TvZ surprised me because of the gap between T and Z being fucking massive lol, far bigger than when Blizzard 'fixed' Zerg (it was 51-49 in favour of Terran iirc when that happened) How I see it, personally. ZvT is close to broken, and it's not due to the winrates. I could accept a period of T being really unfavoured as they tried to figure out new approaches, but I think that period should have passed by now, instinctively. Granted not all the stats are from really recent times, so maybe any kind of upward curve could continue. Protoss are so, so fucked if Zergs ever figure out the Won/Won/Won
PvZ has ALWAYS been an awful matchup, balanced on a razors edge. Flaws in the race design manifest in gigantic uncertainty in the matchup, which would also pop up in their mirrors as well. Because of the buffs made over the past year (queens and immortals), those mirrors have leveled out, but never fixed PvZ. Protoss moved from a gateway concentrated timing to a robo concentrated timing, while Zerg overlord buffs negated super tricky openings.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
Also, another problem with trying to balance the game across the full gamut of skill levels is kind of starkly illustrated. It needs re-evaluation, at least in terms of trying to get to 50-50.
Terran is thought of as being hard, but with tangible rewards. However, if it's harder to play mechanically at the lower levels, the 'reward' of pushing through is being able to hopefully play like the Korean Terrans. If Korean Terrans are getting destroyed, where is the balance there?
As a Protoss player, I would 100% take say, PvZ to be 45-55% balanced against my own race, if Protoss could play in a wider variety of styles that also enabled better players more ways to outplay their opponent outside of timings. This is preferable to a 50/50 split that is 'balanced' so heavily currently on the Immortal Pushes and the Brood Lord/Infestor turtle style.
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tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right
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Is there any data on korean x korean matches only?
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On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right
what graph are you reading?
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On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right
You mean TvP , TvZ is 40/60.
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On December 04 2012 00:06 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right what graph are you reading?
The full of sarcasm one
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On December 04 2012 00:07 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:06 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right what graph are you reading? The full of sarcasm one
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PvZ = allin or die trying. So exiciting to watch...
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So, Korean protoss have 52% against foreign Zergs.. good to know.
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On December 04 2012 00:06 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:02 n0ise wrote:
tvz 50%, glad to see everything is in line, now infestor eggs need a slight nerf and game's about right what graph are you reading?
With Blizzard's glasses, you will see a HUGE graph, that's a smily face.
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I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push.
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On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push.
Nah, lategame is fine if you are a korean terran.
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On December 04 2012 00:14 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push. Nah, lategame is fine if you are a korean terran.
Or Thorzain (at least versus Naniwa).
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On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push.
I have to disagree. In TvP we have seen on a regular basis, that it is difficult, but possible to outplay the Protoss as a terran. Taeja, Bomber, Byun, Polt, Maru and so on have all shown this in the last months. I think TvP might be ok balanced. The tools for the protoss here seem to be a bit easier to use, but it's still winable without banking on a huge protoss blunder. In TvZ this seems not to be the case. The only terran wins I've seen lately were BO wins (mostly Helliontimings against unprepared Zergs) or Zerg screwing up totally. The matchup is seriously broken!
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I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race.
Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players.
Sounds fun?
Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=186193
21% of people had that amazing logic.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:19 TeeTS wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push. I have to disagree. In TvP we have seen on a regular basis, that it is difficult, but possible to outplay the Protoss as a terran. Taeja, Bomber, Byun, Polt, Maru and so on have all shown this in the last months. I think TvP might be ok balanced. The tools for the protoss here seem to be a bit easier to use, but it's still winable without banking on a huge protoss blunder. In TvZ this seems not to be the case. The only terran wins I've seen lately were BO wins (mostly Helliontimings against unprepared Zergs) or Zerg screwing up totally. The matchup is seriously broken!
It's a case of a top tier player, who's playing well having not just the chance to beat his opponent in terms of the win, but having the potential to completely destroy him. Bomber managed to beat Rain, who had previously looked extremely good in PvT against the likes of Taeja and Polt who have good TvP. He didn't just beat him though, he destroyed him straight-up.
It's the problem with balancing for Korean Terrans and their skill level, by the way they do it. Korean Terrans have the ability to improve so much with just pure mechanics because the reference point seems to be what Terrans are potentially capable of, at the highest level (Korean T). The other end of this is that to balance this, Korean Protoss players for example, cannot 'scale' with mechanical chops in the same way without breaking the balance between the aspects of Protoss that enable terrible players to win games, and the potential of a Protoss with those advantages who has sick mechanics to raise the 'peak' level. Thus Protoss players cannot improve to the same degree or by the same methods as Terran. They have to focus on other things like hitting refined timings.
I mean consider MC. I know he has been called 'GM level' with all three races, although I haven't seen his Terran. A guy who had good enough chops mechanically to play Zerg to a level that a GSL level player thought it would be good enough for him to use as a practice partner (who was that btw?)
MC is a guy with at least some degree of mechanical competence if he can play all three races to that kind of level. Why does nobody ever say 'wow MC's macro is sick' or indeed, why does MC not deviate his style at all in PvZ really? Yeah the builds will change, but his entire PvZ is based around timing attacks near enough.
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On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic.
Nah, the majority of pro players really did pick terran at the start, maps also favored terran.
Also, terran had a 52,5 % win ratio in tvz 2010 while zerg is now at 55,6% in 2012 (gsl based tournaments)
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It's actually insane how blizzard:
1) says the stats show even winrates
2) talks about zvp, but almost never about zvt.
The problem is ZvT atm, and I hope blizzard realises that something needs to change. The key is a HUGE raven change, because the raven has no use in TvP, so TvP will remain unaffected.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 00:19 TeeTS wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push. I have to disagree. In TvP we have seen on a regular basis, that it is difficult, but possible to outplay the Protoss as a terran. Taeja, Bomber, Byun, Polt, Maru and so on have all shown this in the last months. I think TvP might be ok balanced. The tools for the protoss here seem to be a bit easier to use, but it's still winable without banking on a huge protoss blunder. In TvZ this seems not to be the case. The only terran wins I've seen lately were BO wins (mostly Helliontimings against unprepared Zergs) or Zerg screwing up totally. The matchup is seriously broken!
There's also subtle differences in aspects of the matchup that kind of reward Protoss players for multipronged aggression more so than against Zerg (bar like, warp prism play). Protoss players can mineral dump in Zealots to run into mineral lines in PvT at timings that actually reward doing such a play in terms of some tangible benefit. They can hit say in the timings before Terrans have really set up defences against such plays, or even use it positionally. Say a 10 Zealot runby is coming to a Terran mineral line and the T player spots it, well that's forcing a decision to be made between retreating his army from wherever it is (ceding territory), or 'taking the hit' to his economy and continuing with something like trying to snipe a third. This in turn, enables a bit more multitasking to be in evidence from the Protoss player's perspective, not because it's flashy or entertaining, but because it's good play.
Protoss can't do this against Zerg without zealots warp prisms in my view. Attempts at Zealot runbys may occasionally work, because a player is terrible, but Zerg's units tend to be fast enough and destroy Zealots for no loss (like roaches) for this approach to not really work. Creep allows such shenanigans to be spotted much earlier too, as a matter of course. A Terran CAN spot a Zealot runby a mile off with things like marine patrols, but he doesn't have the kind of failsafe that creep vision gives a Zerg. You also can't really spare gas units to do this, because they're too risky to lose in the most part. This is why something like a small gateway/sentry poke is almost never seen anymore. Not because the idea to pressure at whatever time it is is inherently bad, but because the risk of failing with a poke (especially without scouting info) can literally lose you the game there and then. You thus need to bypass terrain with warp prisms to try and exploit the fact that the speed roaches and zerglings can move fucking fast in 2 planes, but lack the ability to move in the 3rd dimension.
Once you have the lategame architecture set up to be able to afford prisms, maybe speed and maybe Templar tech for storm drops, the Zerg has already passed the critical mass/cutoff point in which that is stopping Broodlords emerging, or something like that. Yeah you can still harass him to death and win, but it's really hard to actively force Zerg into the kind of decision making I referenced, noncommitally.
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On December 03 2012 22:52 Bellazuk wrote:
Hehe guyz it's top best players in the world, so b4 whinning think that if people menaged to get gm as terran/protoss and your stuck in diamond, that's not the result of the game being imba lololol. I have many friends with poorn skills claming imba all the time , it's just easier to point out imba than say I'm not good enough. In LoL people whine about teamates being bad right, in sc2 it's 1v1, so I guess u figured out my point.
Great tournament, I'd prob expect infestor nerf anyways but not sure if it will bring down the whinners because even when gsl was all about TvT , players were saying zerg op so I guess at this point it doesn't matter that much.
ofc we are all stuck at diamond :|
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Zerg doesn't need a nerf, Terran just needs a buff against biological.
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On December 04 2012 00:47 Butterednuts wrote:
Zerg doesn't need a nerf, Terran just needs a buff against biological.
... wat?
The only problem Terran has is the ability to deal with late game zerg armies effectively. A correct raven fix would probably fix that.
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It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics.
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On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics.
Why would you say that? Polt & Bomber made it to the #3 and #4 spots of the most recent IPL, Polt has been slightly up and down lately, but remains on an upward trend. MKP is good, but still tilts every once in a while, Taeja has fizzled out, but this could be due to injury.
Who are you referring to? MVP is down for the count due to his injury, I hope he doesn't retire.
If this is some attempt to put the blame on terrans for not winning recently, you're grossly mis-informed.
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On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic.
Even now there is more Terrans in GSL than Zergs and Protoss btw.
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TvP's and PvZ's winrates are surprisingly close. Terran win rate is low maybe they should have a up ( Blizzard if you read this post it's for you ).
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On December 04 2012 00:14 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:13 WeRRa wrote:
I'm really surprised that TvP looks so balanced, i really think it favors protoss. Well i guess it is as balanced as PvZ, till mid game all is fine, but at the lategame terran falls apart against protoss and protoss falls apart against zerglategame. So the reason why TvP and ZvP look so balanced are timing attacks/all ins like 1/1/1 or immortal sentry push. Nah, lategame is fine if you are a korean terran.
It's not even Korean Terrans, just a select few Korean Terrans...
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On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics.
It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20.
If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ?
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we need slayers back to get TvZ balanced without blizzard haha
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On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics.
I think the real issue is terrans stopped practicing TvZ, I mean back a few months ago there were lots of pros that had excellent TvZ, now I can't even think of one that I would say is a solid TvZ sniper. They must have all switched to practicing TvP instead, while zergs continued to refine ZvT (not sure who they practiced against though, surely couldn't have been terrans since no terran is really practicing TvZ anymore?)
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
Are people actually taking kcdc's fine ironic post seriously? Jesus christ get a sarcasm filter folks.
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On December 04 2012 01:05 Wombat_NI wrote:
Are people actually taking kcdc's fine ironic post seriously? Jesus christ get a sarcasm filter folks.
I was just about to make a very similar post. Some people... 
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Thanks for the charts man.
But honestly now. Who is really surprised with that TvZ Chart. Totally....... "Balanced".
IPL,MLG,GSL. Like gawd. Save humanity.
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On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics.
@ kcdc
Nice one...
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On December 04 2012 00:56 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic. Even now there is more Terrans in GSL than Zergs and Protoss btw.
yeah but it's easier to stay in the GSL than to qualify for it..
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 01:08 Grapefruit wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:05 Wombat_NI wrote:
Are people actually taking kcdc's fine ironic post seriously? Jesus christ get a sarcasm filter folks. I was just about to make a very similar post. Some people...
It's fucking unbelievable lol. The relation between the effort I put into my posts, and the people who read them, in terms of like ever actually responding. Should just start posting about LoL in unrelated threads, or balance whining in LR threads if I want people to actually read them.... sigh.
I'm hardly asking for people to sit around and wank off my ego by saying how great my points are, just trying to stimulate a bit of vaguely on-topic discussion that might be interesting. It's hardly like I'm expecting much, it's kind of the point of a forum.
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From readind these forums you would assume ZvP is Z favored. Good to see the number show it's not so. ZvT is a bit worrisome, though.
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On December 04 2012 01:17 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:08 Grapefruit wrote:On December 04 2012 01:05 Wombat_NI wrote:
Are people actually taking kcdc's fine ironic post seriously? Jesus christ get a sarcasm filter folks. I was just about to make a very similar post. Some people... It's fucking unbelievable lol. The relation between the effort I put into my posts, and the people who read them, in terms of like ever actually responding. Should just start posting about LoL in unrelated threads, or balance whining in LR threads if I want people to actually read them.... sigh. I'm hardly asking for people to sit around and wank off my ego by saying how great my points are, just trying to stimulate a bit of vaguely on-topic discussion that might be interesting. It's hardly like I'm expecting much, it's kind of the point of a forum.
Actually I didn't answered to your posts because I thought they were pretty good and interesting =) I agree with your TvP views.
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Wow, PvZ is pretty balanced, even P>Z, it's a shame, though that protoss often wins through an all-in and zerg often wins in the lategame, which makes the matchup boring as hell.
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On December 04 2012 01:13 Glubschauge wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:56 keglu wrote:On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic. Even now there is more Terrans in GSL than Zergs and Protoss btw. yeah but it's easier to stay in the GSL than to qualify for it..
Not anymore really, only Top8 has guaranteed spot.
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On December 04 2012 00:53 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. Why would you say that? Polt & Bomber made it to the #3 and #4 spots of the most recent IPL, Polt has been slightly up and down lately, but remains on an upward trend. MKP is good, but still tilts every once in a while, Taeja has fizzled out, but this could be due to injury. Who are you referring to? MVP is down for the count due to his injury, I hope he doesn't retire. If this is some attempt to put the blame on terrans for not winning recently, you're grossly mis-informed.
damn bro.. you can't get sarcasm at all lol third time in this thread!
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On December 04 2012 01:27 ImFromPortugal wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:53 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. Why would you say that? Polt & Bomber made it to the #3 and #4 spots of the most recent IPL, Polt has been slightly up and down lately, but remains on an upward trend. MKP is good, but still tilts every once in a while, Taeja has fizzled out, but this could be due to injury. Who are you referring to? MVP is down for the count due to his injury, I hope he doesn't retire. If this is some attempt to put the blame on terrans for not winning recently, you're grossly mis-informed. damn bro.. you can't get sarcasm at all lol third time in this thread!
I'll just stop replying and cry at my desk at work
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On December 04 2012 01:31 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:27 ImFromPortugal wrote:On December 04 2012 00:53 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. Why would you say that? Polt & Bomber made it to the #3 and #4 spots of the most recent IPL, Polt has been slightly up and down lately, but remains on an upward trend. MKP is good, but still tilts every once in a while, Taeja has fizzled out, but this could be due to injury. Who are you referring to? MVP is down for the count due to his injury, I hope he doesn't retire. If this is some attempt to put the blame on terrans for not winning recently, you're grossly mis-informed. damn bro.. you can't get sarcasm at all lol third time in this thread! I'll just stop replying and cry at my desk at work
i think he was being sarcastic
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Austria24417 Posts
I wonder when anybody will ever realize that overall winrates completely ignore balance at certain stages of the game, which is what people are currently complaining about with zerg. Nobody is complaining that zerg is too strong in the midgame, or early/midgame in ZvP. So yeah winrates will be about equal but that's because everybody kills zerg before lategame or they lose.
I really just wanna see a statistic that shows winrates at certain stages.
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On December 04 2012 01:32 mikedebo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:31 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 01:27 ImFromPortugal wrote:On December 04 2012 00:53 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. Why would you say that? Polt & Bomber made it to the #3 and #4 spots of the most recent IPL, Polt has been slightly up and down lately, but remains on an upward trend. MKP is good, but still tilts every once in a while, Taeja has fizzled out, but this could be due to injury. Who are you referring to? MVP is down for the count due to his injury, I hope he doesn't retire. If this is some attempt to put the blame on terrans for not winning recently, you're grossly mis-informed. damn bro.. you can't get sarcasm at all lol third time in this thread! I'll just stop replying and cry at my desk at work i think he was being sarcastic
i'm kind of serious
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On December 03 2012 23:00 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:46 pprrii wrote:
Another funny example of Zerg domination, 3 events where top level of koreans (of each race) were attending
MLG - ZvZ Finals
GSL - ZvZ Finals
IPL - ZvZ Finals
xD
Interesting sidenote to that, they were all different Zs participating and winning. This isn't a case of "Life beats the crap out of every body!"
True. It is not just the case of 2-3 great zergs kicking ass, it is more like every average zerg having decent chance of winning, even against high level Korean pros from terran. Leenock is a great plaery regardless of balance, so is DRG. But you suddenly have a swarm of zergs, all having good chance of beating Korean terrans. IEM comes in mind with Mvp being the only terran that could go through TvZ after TvZ and beat foreign zergs. Taeja is really the only one except Mvp that has good results in 2012. Without those guys TvZ would look even worse.
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ZvT getting to a really worrying state. Before the queen/ovie buff that was the most interesting match-up, as it actually had early, mid and late game. Nowadays Zerg just skips the midgame as terran does not have any means to force Zergs to play it, thus Zerg gets to lategame without exceptions. Sounds like a design issue actually 
ZvP is just a coin flip at the moment, all-in works or P is Broodlorded back to void. At least it seems that at the moment it is equal probabilities for heads and tails. In GSL world championsips Stephano showed some highly entertaining ZvP, though! Especially games against MC were great.
TvP is at the moment only truly lively MU in my opinion. Both players have several possible strategies and playstyles available and balance is acceptable. I sometimes feel like I have to agree with people saying toss is a-move due to powerful aoe-damage and spammable chargelots, but terran has ways to overcome this.
Edit: and thanks OP! Independent media is the first requirement for democracy, maybe Blizzard will have to listen to community when we're not completely dependant on them.
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This is why you never balance implicitly around win rate stats. Balance is a lot more complicated than that.
For example in fighting games, when a character is considered over powered, it doesn't necessary imply it wins every tournament. Because skill of individual players factors in as well other variables that effect performance. Usually an OP character is analyzed on how powerful their move-set is in comparison to other characters. And this character could also require a significant amount skill to execute. That said it might also just have a crazy infinite.
SC2 has to be balanced around how each race from early, mid to late game handles the various options of the opposition. In other words build orders, and unit relationship.
Protoss winning with immortal sentry all ins, or whether a vortex hits isn't what I call balance despite the stats.
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On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic.
Funny you say something like that because even now you have more terrans in Code S than protoss or zerg. It is not about counting number of players it is about the win rates. So yes, it is true that more Koreans picked terran but even though they are in majority, they are getting their asses kicked by zergs. And when Code S level player drops to Code A he will most likely get back to Code S despite of balance and you will again have more terrans in next season of Code S which will again get their asses kicked...
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On December 04 2012 01:49 KingAce wrote:
Protoss winning with immortal sentry all ins, or whether a vortex hits isn't what I call balance despite the stats.
Yep. But Blizzard can't see the the forest through the trees...
PvT is very close.
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On December 04 2012 01:00 convention wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. I think the real issue is terrans stopped practicing TvZ, I mean back a few months ago there were lots of pros that had excellent TvZ, now I can't even think of one that I would say is a solid TvZ sniper. They must have all switched to practicing TvP instead, while zergs continued to refine ZvT (not sure who they practiced against though, surely couldn't have been terrans since no terran is really practicing TvZ anymore?)
I hope this is sarcasm, not the attempt of explanation. You really believe all terrans suddenly stopped practicing TvZ?
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Win rates are almost useless for balance.
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On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ?
You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary.
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On December 04 2012 01:39 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:32 mikedebo wrote:On December 04 2012 01:31 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 01:27 ImFromPortugal wrote:On December 04 2012 00:53 renaissanceMAN wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. Why would you say that? Polt & Bomber made it to the #3 and #4 spots of the most recent IPL, Polt has been slightly up and down lately, but remains on an upward trend. MKP is good, but still tilts every once in a while, Taeja has fizzled out, but this could be due to injury. Who are you referring to? MVP is down for the count due to his injury, I hope he doesn't retire. If this is some attempt to put the blame on terrans for not winning recently, you're grossly mis-informed. damn bro.. you can't get sarcasm at all lol third time in this thread! I'll just stop replying and cry at my desk at work i think he was being sarcastic i'm kind of serious
i wasn't
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 01:59 Skwid1g wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ? You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary.
He is kind of right with the central idea though, that it's a balance between perception and pure stats that has to be looked at, rather than each them in isolation.
I mean I've heard Zergs describe Daybreak as 'slightly favouring Zerg' in ZvT and claiming that Antiga is 'massively Terran favoured'. Stats don't back this up at all in the current metagame. The reason the attitude still exist is a remnant of a former metagame where Marine-Tank pushes and slower hive enabled you to take the middle ground and split the map this kind of interaction in timings and intersection of strats has changed, so the map stats have changed accordingly. Ah the days of MVP splitting the map and sniping everything... good times
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On December 03 2012 23:53 renaissanceMAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 23:00 Psychobabas wrote:
TvZ looks legit
No imbalance here not sure if srs. kind of glad I'm not playing this game right now, it's sad that there are those who think this game is "balanced"
Not serious xD
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My (potentially biased) takeaways:
Zerg has an unfair advantage against Terran
Protoss vs Terran is refreshingly fair
Zerg has an unfair advantage against Protoss except when Protoss goes for the immortal/sentry all-in
ZvZ is the only Zerg MU that feel legitimate to me when I watch.
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Funny thing is that only one in history of sc2 we have one matchup over 59% and it was for one month. (TvZ in 2010)
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Russian Federation823 Posts
On December 04 2012 01:51 Qwerty85 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic. Funny you say something like that because even now you have more terrans in Code S than protoss or zerg. It is not about counting number of players it is about the win rates. So yes, it is true that more Koreans picked terran but even though they are in majority, they are getting their asses kicked by zergs. And when Code S level player drops to Code A he will most likely get back to Code S despite of balance and you will again have more terrans in next season of Code S which will again get their asses kicked...
That's actually a good point.
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On December 03 2012 23:05 Netsky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:57 Yello wrote:On December 03 2012 22:50 Saechiis wrote:
I think Zerg is advantaged in the marathon tournaments that currently make out most of the tournament scene since they can play standard every game and have a good shot at winning. In terms of player specific preparations I feel Terran can do a lot to even things up, but that's only really the case in long term tournaments like GSL. This is TvZ for the last season of GSL: + Show Spoiler +38.2% Set Winrate for Terran against Zergs (34W 55L) At least for the last season of GSL Terrans were performing extremely bad vs Zerg. Or Zerg were performing really well. If we jump back one more season things looks a lot more balanced with 47% Winrate for Terran vs Zerg (47W 53L) Even though it's a much smaller sample size, this number is far more accurate imo. Due the closer skill level of the players and higher skill level overall. I would also be very curious of the percentage of the Terran wins that came from 2 rax.
Very good point about the 2 rax. So many Terrans are just going 2 rax because they would rather take a "coin flip" approach than meet the (less than 50% chance) of the impending Zerg BL/Infestor deathball. Seeing as though last GSL stats were missed, these numbers are not only bad for TvZ, but terrible if you reduce wins from 2 rax.
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On December 04 2012 08:15 Emzeeshady wrote:
Hmm it would seem TvP and PvZ are nicely balanced. So how the fuck do they change ZvT without fucking Zerg over vs Toss?
Infestor nerf
Hydra buff
?
toss deathballs are gonna destroy the Z that way due to huge splash dmg.
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On December 04 2012 08:15 Emzeeshady wrote:
Hmm it would seem TvP and PvZ are nicely balanced. So how the fuck do they change ZvT without fucking Zerg over vs Toss?
Infestor nerf
Hydra buff
?
Better maps.
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United Kingdom20284 Posts
On December 04 2012 08:02 kcdc wrote:
My (potentially biased) takeaways:
Zerg has an unfair advantage against Terran
Protoss vs Terran is refreshingly fair
Zerg has an unfair advantage against Protoss except when Protoss goes for the immortal/sentry all-in
ZvZ is the only Zerg MU that feel legitimate to me when I watch.
I have to agree with this - proper PartinG style immortal sentry all in (3 immortal ~8 sentry moveout at 8:50) is rare and very few have the warp prism control and general ability, but i think it might be slightly unfair at the highest level, where it feels like there is nothing the zerg side can do to win - but it might not be certain. It seems less of a problem than 1-1-1 was (which was much stronger on the smaller map pools of 2011)
In general matchups against zerg seem awful. I feel horrible watching the best terrans trying to get into an advantageous position, but it seems more and more like trying to force the zerg to mess up so they dont lose their entire army regardless of micro to an attack move command when they do chose to engage
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And where im supposed to see that ZvT matchup is Imba ..... ????
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On December 03 2012 22:07 tomatriedes wrote:
I feel the ZvP stat is a bit misleading because several of these tournaments were lacking top Korean zergs. If any of Life, Leenock, Violet, Sniper, Hyun, Symbol etc. had have attended WCG, Dreamhack, WCS and IEM these stats would have been much different.
But thanks anyway!
Then you're saying that in TvZ, Zerg would have a greater winning rate? Omg, Blizz what are you doing?
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On December 04 2012 08:15 Emzeeshady wrote:
Hmm it would seem TvP and PvZ are nicely balanced. So how the fuck do they change ZvT without fucking Zerg over vs Toss?
Infestor nerf
Hydra buff
?
Bring back old snipe? This doesnt affect TvP because EMP is more valuable.
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On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic.
Except that at the time, all the most successful Brood War players that switched over (Nada, MVP, Boxer etc. etc.) WERE playing Terran and that poll was taken dispite ZERO Terran tournament wins!
So not are you fucking stupid for bringing up 2010 arguments when Steppes of War was still in the map pool, but you aren't even reading them right.
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On December 04 2012 08:15 Emzeeshady wrote:
Hmm it would seem TvP and PvZ are nicely balanced. So how the fuck do they change ZvT without fucking Zerg over vs Toss?
Infestor nerf
Hydra buff
?
What unit has no use in TvP because of feedback? The raven. So a HUGE raven change won't affect TvP
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On December 04 2012 00:24 Topzerg wrote:I remember in 2010 when Terran was ridiculously OP and Terrans were all saying the reason why there was so many Terrans winning and participating in GSL only because MORE players played that race. Well here it is for all you terrans: The only reason Zerg is winning more right now is because they have the most players playing the race which obviously means they have more of the BEST players. Sounds fun? Source... just so I don't get banned : http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=18619321% of people had that amazing logic.
Then by your logic, you're saying that Zerg is OP. Seriously, your post doesn't contribute anything. I think a proper raven buff could definitely help out late game TvZ.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 09:10 Cyro wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 08:02 kcdc wrote:
My (potentially biased) takeaways:
Zerg has an unfair advantage against Terran
Protoss vs Terran is refreshingly fair
Zerg has an unfair advantage against Protoss except when Protoss goes for the immortal/sentry all-in
ZvZ is the only Zerg MU that feel legitimate to me when I watch. I have to agree with this - proper PartinG style immortal sentry all in (3 immortal ~8 sentry moveout at 8:50) is rare and very few have the warp prism control and general ability, but i think it might be slightly unfair at the highest level, where it feels like there is nothing the zerg side can do to win - but it might not be certain. It seems less of a problem than 1-1-1 was (which was much stronger on the smaller map pools of 2011) In general matchups against zerg seem awful. I feel horrible watching the best terrans trying to get into an advantageous position, but it seems more and more like trying to force the zerg to mess up so they dont lose their entire army regardless of micro to an attack move command when they do chose to engage
Consider why that is unfair, or at least imo. The 1/1/1 used to work in exactly the same way in PvT, even if you knew it was coming you could still die. However, it was patched before the metagame/map pool changes were kicking in. Blizzard couldn't really have predicted this, and it kind of has changed a lot of PvP things as well.
I went to test this to try and hold outschool 1/1/1s with a friend, not super high level games, but tweaked the Immortal range. They're still holdable with the range, it's the economy boost kicking in at the right time with a 1 Rax FE that lets you hold it.
However, the Won/Won/Won is really only as good as it is as a direct consequence of the Immortal buff, which was to fix the TvP equivalent of it.
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Not enough samples in play to take this seriously. Good info anyway.
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Zerg dominating both MUs.
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On December 04 2012 01:59 Skwid1g wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ? You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary.
What do you mean? He's pretty correct....
This revisionist history going on here on TL is what is scary...
Have people forgotten how many countless nerfs Terran has been subjected to? Have people forgotten how the map pool has evolved in the past 2 years? Even through the periods of utter Terran domination and GomTvT we had Zerg champions. Zergs hadn't even developed the use of Infestors yet and they were winning GSLs for fucks sake. Queen/Overlord buffs came mere weeks after Blizzard announced the game was as balanced as it had ever been. Ghosts nerfs came swiftly after MVP dominated NesTea in a single showmatch.
Protoss and Zerg can cry all they want, but at least players of those races are still winning shit and at least foreign P/Z have some hope of making a career out of SC2. Terrans are being forced into retirement.
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Blizzard: We are currently happy with the state of balance and see no cause for concern.
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I'm a bit surprised by this. Although the tvz winrate is far from optimal, i thought it would've been more in favor of zerg to be honest.
btw, does this mean map or set win rates?
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60% ZvT win ratio. "We do not see a significant imbalance at the top level of play." Also wtf PvZ is actually Protoss favored, probably because you can do your sentry immortal all-in.
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On December 04 2012 02:06 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 01:59 Skwid1g wrote:On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ? You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary. He is kind of right with the central idea though, that it's a balance between perception and pure stats that has to be looked at, rather than each them in isolation. I mean I've heard Zergs describe Daybreak as 'slightly favouring Zerg' in ZvT and claiming that Antiga is 'massively Terran favoured'. Stats don't back this up at all in the current metagame. The reason the attitude still exist is a remnant of a former metagame where Marine-Tank pushes and slower hive enabled you to take the middle ground and split the map this kind of interaction in timings and intersection of strats has changed, so the map stats have changed accordingly. Ah the days of MVP splitting the map and sniping everything... good times
good time*
Unlike this current stint of Zerg domination with a single unit, Terran hardly gets to revel in any of their own innovations before a swift kick in the balls is in order.
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On December 04 2012 10:10 Scila wrote:
60% ZvT win ratio. "We do not see a significant imbalance at the top level of play." Also wtf PvZ is actually Protoss favored, probably because you can do your sentry immortal all-in.
Probably because most of these tournaments have featured multiple top Korean protoss playing against what is, to them at least, second tier opposition in foreign zerg players. I wouldn't read much at all into these stats.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 10:12 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 02:06 Wombat_NI wrote:On December 04 2012 01:59 Skwid1g wrote:On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ? You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary. He is kind of right with the central idea though, that it's a balance between perception and pure stats that has to be looked at, rather than each them in isolation. I mean I've heard Zergs describe Daybreak as 'slightly favouring Zerg' in ZvT and claiming that Antiga is 'massively Terran favoured'. Stats don't back this up at all in the current metagame. The reason the attitude still exist is a remnant of a former metagame where Marine-Tank pushes and slower hive enabled you to take the middle ground and split the map this kind of interaction in timings and intersection of strats has changed, so the map stats have changed accordingly. Ah the days of MVP splitting the map and sniping everything... good times good time* Unlike this current stint of Zerg domination with a single unit, Terran hardly gets to revel in any of their own innovations before a swift kick in the balls is in order.
It's so sad man, I pine for the glorious sound of snipes raining down from the mouse of MVP. Yeah even if it was broken, at least it was rare, and thus kind of cool to see occasionally.
Zerg is so, so homogenised. Everyone seems to play either similarly, but to different degrees of proficiency. Leenock then kind of does some ridiculously intricate and cool build every so often, just to keep it interesting.
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On December 04 2012 10:16 Brett wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 10:10 Scila wrote:
60% ZvT win ratio. "We do not see a significant imbalance at the top level of play." Also wtf PvZ is actually Protoss favored, probably because you can do your sentry immortal all-in. Probably because most of these tournaments have featured multiple top Korean protoss playing against what is, to them at least, second tier opposition in foreign zerg players. I wouldn't read much at all into these stats.
Not even that. It's like a Korean All-Star Protoss lineup being pitted against the best of the b-teams from all over the world.
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On December 04 2012 10:20 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 10:12 aksfjh wrote:On December 04 2012 02:06 Wombat_NI wrote:On December 04 2012 01:59 Skwid1g wrote:On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ? You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary. He is kind of right with the central idea though, that it's a balance between perception and pure stats that has to be looked at, rather than each them in isolation. I mean I've heard Zergs describe Daybreak as 'slightly favouring Zerg' in ZvT and claiming that Antiga is 'massively Terran favoured'. Stats don't back this up at all in the current metagame. The reason the attitude still exist is a remnant of a former metagame where Marine-Tank pushes and slower hive enabled you to take the middle ground and split the map this kind of interaction in timings and intersection of strats has changed, so the map stats have changed accordingly. Ah the days of MVP splitting the map and sniping everything... good times good time* Unlike this current stint of Zerg domination with a single unit, Terran hardly gets to revel in any of their own innovations before a swift kick in the balls is in order. It's so sad man, I pine for the glorious sound of snipes raining down from the mouse of MVP. Yeah even if it was broken, at least it was rare, and thus kind of cool to see occasionally. Zerg is so, so homogenised. Everyone seems to play either similarly, but to different degrees of proficiency. Leenock then kind of does some ridiculously intricate and cool build every so often, just to keep it interesting.
I will admit that some of the recent GSL TvZ games were really, really good, despite of the awful imbalance. Zerg showcased some amazing midgame strengths and fantastic unit control to over come positioning, showing what the race can do when you don't just a-move on the minimap while focusing on injects. It's just sad that the matchup for Zerg is basically how I play "scary" FPSs: with a auto-win cheat waiting for me if I ever find myself against a wall.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 10:26 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 10:20 Wombat_NI wrote:On December 04 2012 10:12 aksfjh wrote:On December 04 2012 02:06 Wombat_NI wrote:On December 04 2012 01:59 Skwid1g wrote:On December 04 2012 00:59 MrCon wrote:On December 04 2012 00:50 kcdc wrote:
It's crazy how all the top level Terrans stopped practicing so hard. At least the Zergs have redoubled their work ethics. It's also a morale issue, when terran is at 51% vs zerg, Blizzard find it a big problem and give ferrarilords and queendralisks, and when zerg wins 70%, Blizzard thinks balance is fine and nerf eggs life by 20. If you're a pro and a terran nowadays, there is just no perspective or future before HOTS, so train for what ? You have no idea what you're talking about, it's actually kind of scary. He is kind of right with the central idea though, that it's a balance between perception and pure stats that has to be looked at, rather than each them in isolation. I mean I've heard Zergs describe Daybreak as 'slightly favouring Zerg' in ZvT and claiming that Antiga is 'massively Terran favoured'. Stats don't back this up at all in the current metagame. The reason the attitude still exist is a remnant of a former metagame where Marine-Tank pushes and slower hive enabled you to take the middle ground and split the map this kind of interaction in timings and intersection of strats has changed, so the map stats have changed accordingly. Ah the days of MVP splitting the map and sniping everything... good times good time* Unlike this current stint of Zerg domination with a single unit, Terran hardly gets to revel in any of their own innovations before a swift kick in the balls is in order. It's so sad man, I pine for the glorious sound of snipes raining down from the mouse of MVP. Yeah even if it was broken, at least it was rare, and thus kind of cool to see occasionally. Zerg is so, so homogenised. Everyone seems to play either similarly, but to different degrees of proficiency. Leenock then kind of does some ridiculously intricate and cool build every so often, just to keep it interesting. I will admit that some of the recent GSL TvZ games were really, really good, despite of the awful imbalance. Zerg showcased some amazing midgame strengths and fantastic unit control to over come positioning, showing what the race can do when you don't just a-move on the minimap while focusing on injects. It's just sad that the matchup for Zerg is basically how I play "scary" FPSs: with a auto-win cheat waiting for me if I ever find myself against a wall.
Well Ryung's games were sick, good strategy of exploiting map architecture and using his strengths to win.
That's the exact kind of thing I talk about when I talk about 'balance'. Yeah it's a balance between players of relative proficiency, having equal chances.
There's also the balance between difficulty and ease of execution, fun vs monotony and solid standards against variety to consider.
Ryung was able to use the specific characteristics of that map to play a style that suits his strengths, and was considered to be very Zerg favoured by many. That's what Starcraft is about man
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I think that one month should go by and we should look at rates as a community WITH blizzard
if the rates still show zerg at around 55-60% in both matchups, infestors should take a large nerf. I dont mean something like reducing the HP of the eggs, because that only limits their usefulness in one way. they should completely remove one of it's utilities, or at least make the infestors less suited for a role than another unit of zerg. For example, I think changing infestors burrow movement to be as easily detectable as a ghost, DT, or banshee would be a good move because it would make mutalisks a more viable harassment option in some circumstances. Other ideas from me would be, taking armor off of the morphing infested terran completely in combination with the HP nerf to 80, Making fungal growth unable to stun air units (this is i think the change that would have the greatest effect on the metagame), decreasing the radius of fungal growth to 1.5 and nerfing the damage to 35. Each of these changes alone would have a huge impact probably enough to where we wouldn't need to change anything about T or P in the meantime (maybe considering changing the way interceptors and fungal growth works as well)
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Would it be possible to see it in different months?
Like September only, or October only.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 10:41 c0sm0naut wrote:
I think that one month should go by and we should look at rates as a community WITH blizzard
if the rates still show zerg at around 55-60% in both matchups, infestors should take a large nerf. I dont mean something like reducing the HP of the eggs, because that only limits their usefulness in one way. they should completely remove one of it's utilities, or at least make the infestors less suited for a role than another unit of zerg. For example, I think changing infestors burrow movement to be as easily detectable as a ghost, DT, or banshee would be a good move because it would make mutalisks a more viable harassment option in some circumstances. Other ideas from me would be, taking armor off of the morphing infested terran completely in combination with the HP nerf to 80, Making fungal growth unable to stun air units (this is i think the change that would have the greatest effect on the metagame), decreasing the radius of fungal growth to 1.5 and nerfing the damage to 35. Each of these changes alone would have a huge impact probably enough to where we wouldn't need to change anything about T or P in the meantime (maybe considering changing the way interceptors and fungal growth works as well)
Exactly why you have to have a proper discussion with Blizzard and the idea that balanced 50/50 winrates don't necessarily make the game fun
I mean we disagree with Infestors I think, but the approach has some validity I believe. It's the timings that Zerg units come out, that are only made possible by Zerg design that really brings the issue into focus. I mean I consider Infestors as 'feeling' like a High Templar, that you can spam from the midgame and with less downside for overmaking them and a more versatile unit.
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On December 04 2012 09:54 zmansman17 wrote:
Zerg dominating both MUs.
They dominate ZvP with 48% winrate?
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On December 04 2012 11:08 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 10:41 c0sm0naut wrote:
I think that one month should go by and we should look at rates as a community WITH blizzard
if the rates still show zerg at around 55-60% in both matchups, infestors should take a large nerf. I dont mean something like reducing the HP of the eggs, because that only limits their usefulness in one way. they should completely remove one of it's utilities, or at least make the infestors less suited for a role than another unit of zerg. For example, I think changing infestors burrow movement to be as easily detectable as a ghost, DT, or banshee would be a good move because it would make mutalisks a more viable harassment option in some circumstances. Other ideas from me would be, taking armor off of the morphing infested terran completely in combination with the HP nerf to 80, Making fungal growth unable to stun air units (this is i think the change that would have the greatest effect on the metagame), decreasing the radius of fungal growth to 1.5 and nerfing the damage to 35. Each of these changes alone would have a huge impact probably enough to where we wouldn't need to change anything about T or P in the meantime (maybe considering changing the way interceptors and fungal growth works as well) Exactly why you have to have a proper discussion with Blizzard and the idea that balanced 50/50 winrates don't necessarily make the game fun I mean we disagree with Infestors I think, but the approach has some validity I believe. It's the timings that Zerg units come out, that are only made possible by Zerg design that really brings the issue into focus. I mean I consider Infestors as 'feeling' like a High Templar, that you can spam from the midgame and with less downside for overmaking them and a more versatile unit.
the infestor differs from the HT in that ghost is a viable counter for HT and can be zoned out with fungals before landing EMP. infestors also serve more roles being completely honest. there is a point at which, i can have like 20 ghosts with full energy and HT dont do shit, but i cant think of any ghost count that reliably lets me do that, especially one that is feasible to get to nowdays considering hive tech is coming at 16 min at the latest and zergs aren't sitting on 200/200 armies, they're trading them because they can remake faster with banked resources from an earlier (on average) third base.
this is exactly why i think they need to be changed in at least one way pretty significantly. it needs to lose the catch all feel it has
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Seems pretty balanced in Code S when top players have enough time to prepare and are playing bo5 or bo7.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 04 2012 12:01 c0sm0naut wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 11:08 Wombat_NI wrote:On December 04 2012 10:41 c0sm0naut wrote:
I think that one month should go by and we should look at rates as a community WITH blizzard
if the rates still show zerg at around 55-60% in both matchups, infestors should take a large nerf. I dont mean something like reducing the HP of the eggs, because that only limits their usefulness in one way. they should completely remove one of it's utilities, or at least make the infestors less suited for a role than another unit of zerg. For example, I think changing infestors burrow movement to be as easily detectable as a ghost, DT, or banshee would be a good move because it would make mutalisks a more viable harassment option in some circumstances. Other ideas from me would be, taking armor off of the morphing infested terran completely in combination with the HP nerf to 80, Making fungal growth unable to stun air units (this is i think the change that would have the greatest effect on the metagame), decreasing the radius of fungal growth to 1.5 and nerfing the damage to 35. Each of these changes alone would have a huge impact probably enough to where we wouldn't need to change anything about T or P in the meantime (maybe considering changing the way interceptors and fungal growth works as well) Exactly why you have to have a proper discussion with Blizzard and the idea that balanced 50/50 winrates don't necessarily make the game fun I mean we disagree with Infestors I think, but the approach has some validity I believe. It's the timings that Zerg units come out, that are only made possible by Zerg design that really brings the issue into focus. I mean I consider Infestors as 'feeling' like a High Templar, that you can spam from the midgame and with less downside for overmaking them and a more versatile unit. the infestor differs from the HT in that ghost is a viable counter for HT and can be zoned out with fungals before landing EMP. infestors also serve more roles being completely honest. there is a point at which, i can have like 20 ghosts with full energy and HT dont do shit, but i cant think of any ghost count that reliably lets me do that, especially one that is feasible to get to nowdays considering hive tech is coming at 16 min at the latest and zergs aren't sitting on 200/200 armies, they're trading them because they can remake faster with banked resources from an earlier (on average) third base. this is exactly why i think they need to be changed in at least one way pretty significantly. it needs to lose the catch all feel it has
Exactly man. I mean we differ in our own interpretation but, the actual reasoning behind it is to eliminate drawback-free play that isn't based on some kind of information, read or metagaming. For example, when Terrans had more effective pressure, you could still cut corners as a Zerg, but doing so blindly all the time was a calculated risk/reward kind of thing.
I mean, it's why Terrans struggle in the lategame too, but for the opposite reason. They can get counters that are both quite difficult to set up the infrastructure for, and rely on getting good compositional information.
The Terran transition to it's super army is bad/hard for almost the same reasons that building loads of infestors is relatively easy/good.
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This win rates are so missleading.
Are ok, but many of those numbers come from matches with big skill disparity.
Winrates graphics from MLG, GSL and IPL5 from Ro16 and above would be really insightful.
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On December 04 2012 12:17 Belha wrote:
This win rates are so missleading.
Are ok, but many of those numbers come from matches with big skill disparity.
Winrates graphics from MLG, GSL and IPL5 from Ro16 and above would be really insightful.
That many games is easy to count.
Zerg - terran
mlg 12-5
gsl 14-15
ipl 9-10
totall 35 - 30
46% tvz winrate
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3 Comments:
1. If you don't have a method of accounting for skill bias, you shouldn't post tabulations like this. I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, but there is no way to tell if they are close to correct.
2. The TvZ win rate pie chart is almost certainly biased since many of the events are international. We know there aren't many elite foreign T players and we know the Korean teams have been sending their best Zs all around the international circuit. This means every time these two groups play you can expect to tally another win for Z in ZvT. If your numbers don't account for this type of situation, I can't be convinced they are meaningful from a balance perspective.
3. To anyone questioning Blizzard's stance on match-up win rates, I'm 99.9% certain they have better data and analysis than what is presented in the original post.
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On December 04 2012 12:32 KissMeRed wrote:
2. The TvZ win rate pie chart is almost certainly biased since many of the events are international. We know there aren't many elite foreign T players and we know the Korean teams have been sending their best Zs all around the international circuit. This means every time these two groups play you can expect to tally another win for Z in ZvT. If your numbers don't account for this type of situation, I can't be convinced they are meaningful from a balance perspective.
If there is less good non-korean terrans then they won't be making it far enough to play the korean zergs where as korean terrans play many games vs non-korean zergs.
Korean terran vs non korean zerg @ ipl5 10-11
Non korean terran vs korean zerg @ ipl5 0-2
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On December 04 2012 12:46 xPabt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 12:32 KissMeRed wrote:
2. The TvZ win rate pie chart is almost certainly biased since many of the events are international. We know there aren't many elite foreign T players and we know the Korean teams have been sending their best Zs all around the international circuit. This means every time these two groups play you can expect to tally another win for Z in ZvT. If your numbers don't account for this type of situation, I can't be convinced they are meaningful from a balance perspective.
If there is less good non-korean terrans then they won't be making it far enough to play the korean zergs where as korean terrans play many games vs non-korean zergs. Korean terran vs non korean zerg @ ipl5 10-11 Non korean terran vs korean zerg @ ipl5 0-2
Now someone should do this for every tournament in the original post. Also tabulate KoreanT v KoreanZ. Then look at the win rate in each category. If Non Korean T v Korean Z has a low win percentage, and the others are 'closer' to 50-50 like above, then we know why the match-up looks so terrible for T.
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On December 04 2012 13:36 KissMeRed wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 12:46 xPabt wrote:On December 04 2012 12:32 KissMeRed wrote:
2. The TvZ win rate pie chart is almost certainly biased since many of the events are international. We know there aren't many elite foreign T players and we know the Korean teams have been sending their best Zs all around the international circuit. This means every time these two groups play you can expect to tally another win for Z in ZvT. If your numbers don't account for this type of situation, I can't be convinced they are meaningful from a balance perspective.
If there is less good non-korean terrans then they won't be making it far enough to play the korean zergs where as korean terrans play many games vs non-korean zergs. Korean terran vs non korean zerg @ ipl5 10-11 Non korean terran vs korean zerg @ ipl5 0-2 Now someone should do this for every tournament in the original post. Also tabulate KoreanT v KoreanZ. Then look at the win rate in each category. If Non Korean T v Korean Z has a low win percentage, and the others are 'closer' to 50-50 like above, then we know why the match-up looks so terrible for T.
You misread my post.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
How do you propose we improve (assuming top level Protoss players) like in terms of potential strategies we haven't figured out that are viable, or the flaws in top Protoss players that they can iron out. Identify, bar issues like mentality where actual top Korean Protosses are actually sub-par.
Considering asymmetric balance, we have strengths, but our strengths are in the unpredictable. Hitting a Zerg with a timing he didn't expect, or a slightly different composition. It's why a Protoss will use a radically different build to the previous game, sometimes for the entirety of a BoX series. Yeah we can win games for sure, that's not what we're complaining about.
Terrans should just 'play better' too by that rationale. The problems are the same, limited options, it's just more mechanically demanding to overcome them as Terran.
Both these races have to play 'reactively' or use allin builds, against the Zerg race which has the best ability to reactively respond. I mean reactive in the sense that apart from timings, Protoss has to react to what the Zerg is doing, and their compositions more often than not. Terran has to do this too, especially in terms of their transition and reads vs say, Ultra/BL.
Protoss and Terran players can not respond as quickly to a moveout they spot that's compositionally surprising, in the same way Zerg can. Neither race can techswitch as fast either, Protoss are limited by gas costs after a point, Terran's switches are just quite slow to do even with the resources.
We're expected to play a matchup entirely to the Zerg's overall gameplan and stopping them getting there, but if our plan to do so is spotted or pre-empted, we're trying to employ a surprise-based strategy vs the race that is the BEST at reacting to that. This wouldn't be an issue at all if the Zerg had to be especially greedy to get to the lategame, especially against Terran, however they don't even have to cut huge corners to do this to the extent it opens visible or predictable holes that somebody can exploit. Yeah you can exploit the holes, they are there but it's very hard to know what or when they are, and risky to predicate a pushout on a read that might be wrong.
It's retarded, at that level. Protoss can win for sure though, not arguing that at all. Perhaps we can improve as a race, even the top guys, but I mean, where is that improvement going to come from?
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
I agree with some of your points man. In fact I agree with everything you say in terms of the specifics.
It's a terrible matchup, even when it's 50/50. I was playing vs a practice partner, and losing every game near enough. I went on TL to look up Parting's Immortal/Sentry build, practiced it a few times, and raped him.
I'm not any better at Starcraft for doing that, or more skillful for knowing that one build. I DID on the other hand, 'balance' the practice games with my Zerg friend. However, even though it benefitted me in this instance, it didn't feel good/left me feeling somewhat hollow.
The only ways I hear suggested for Protoss players to improve aren't things like 'macro better MC' or 'damn HerO's micro is bad, he could fix that', it's always 'He should hit that timing better'
Also, the reason Zergs build so many spines to be safe is partly because they are just skipping the midgame entirely. They're rushing to Hive and neglecting Lair aggression, so it's not that Zerg are inherently weak at this stage, but that Zerg playstyles at the minute kind of create that weak period.
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Great work, just confirming what we already know as far as TvZ.
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Terran obviously not doing well (
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On December 03 2012 22:08 m0ck wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 22:06 opterown wrote:
surprised that zvp is so close, must be all those parting foreigner stomps haha
thanks for the work! Mid-game imba vs late-game imba make for a balanced match-up, it would seem. But here comes the explanations for why protoss is actually weak versus zerg, despite the results.
Wait, so do you believe that it is a legitimately balanced matchup then?
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Hmm its still funny that people in this thread say TvP is fine overall. Its fine if you have top 10 mechanics in the world, but otherwise protoss has a ridiculous win ratio advantage. Like the OP already stated, about 30% of the TvP wins are from less than 5 different players, while in other matchups the wins are pretty evenly scattered..
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
Basically yeah it's hard, but when you have those mechanical chops it's pretty fair?
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On December 04 2012 12:46 xPabt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 12:32 KissMeRed wrote:
2. The TvZ win rate pie chart is almost certainly biased since many of the events are international. We know there aren't many elite foreign T players and we know the Korean teams have been sending their best Zs all around the international circuit. This means every time these two groups play you can expect to tally another win for Z in ZvT. If your numbers don't account for this type of situation, I can't be convinced they are meaningful from a balance perspective.
If there is less good non-korean terrans then they won't be making it far enough to play the korean zergs where as korean terrans play many games vs non-korean zergs. Korean terran vs non korean zerg @ ipl5 10-11 Non korean terran vs korean zerg @ ipl5 0-2
You should take into account non korean terrans vs anyone. Non koreans terran are just bad compared to foreign/korean protosses and zergs.
Last mlg : foreign terran versus other foreigners : 0-2
Last IPL : foreign terran versus other foreigners : 0-7
Now I can see why there is only a 40% winning ratio for terrans.
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On December 08 2012 11:37 Tapppi wrote:
Hmm its still funny that people in this thread say TvP is fine overall. Its fine if you have top 10 mechanics in the world, but otherwise protoss has a ridiculous win ratio advantage. Like the OP already stated, about 30% of the TvP wins are from less than 5 different players, while in other matchups the wins are pretty evenly scattered..
Please, show me some actual winrates and facts posted by a guy who doesnt have a Terran based agenda. Why would you post stats and then attempt to discredit them unless you were incredibly biased. There hasn't been a shred of evidence in the past four months to support claims that TvP is Protoss favored. Yet you keep saying so in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
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On December 08 2012 12:12 Wingblade wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2012 11:37 Tapppi wrote:
Hmm its still funny that people in this thread say TvP is fine overall. Its fine if you have top 10 mechanics in the world, but otherwise protoss has a ridiculous win ratio advantage. Like the OP already stated, about 30% of the TvP wins are from less than 5 different players, while in other matchups the wins are pretty evenly scattered.. Please, show me some actual winrates and facts posted by a guy who doesnt have a Terran based agenda. Why would you post stats and then attempt to discredit them unless you were incredibly biased. There hasn't been a shred of evidence in the past four months to support claims that TvP is Protoss favored. Yet you keep saying so in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
It's still a lot more unforgiving to play from the Terran side simply because you have no choice but to field a much squishier army that remakes slower, but in general it's at least manageable as long as Protoss doesn't have a large bank. Certainly easier than TvZ.
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Confirmation of what everyone has been saying about zerg lately. Hopefully infestor nerf will change it.
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Northern Ireland24931 Posts
On December 08 2012 12:37 forsooth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2012 12:12 Wingblade wrote:On December 08 2012 11:37 Tapppi wrote:
Hmm its still funny that people in this thread say TvP is fine overall. Its fine if you have top 10 mechanics in the world, but otherwise protoss has a ridiculous win ratio advantage. Like the OP already stated, about 30% of the TvP wins are from less than 5 different players, while in other matchups the wins are pretty evenly scattered.. Please, show me some actual winrates and facts posted by a guy who doesnt have a Terran based agenda. Why would you post stats and then attempt to discredit them unless you were incredibly biased. There hasn't been a shred of evidence in the past four months to support claims that TvP is Protoss favored. Yet you keep saying so in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. It's still a lot more unforgiving to play from the Terran side simply because you have no choice but to field a much squishier army that remakes slower, but in general it's at least manageable as long as Protoss doesn't have a large bank. Certainly easier than TvZ.
It's hard to play for sure, but at the very top level tis fair imo, and a good watch these days. The Terran's ability to use their micro will eventually balance out over the Protoss' reliance on tech units and lack of microable units.
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Win rates latelly have been missleading. If you don't differentiate between the facts and the quality of the stats, then the numbers worth nothing.
Here I looked deeper inside the most important tournaments from the last months, not just blind numbers, analysis.
2012 MLG Fall Championship:
Top 4: 1º Life; 2º Leenock; 3º Bomber; 4º Flash ; All code S level
About Top4: 2 top Z's in the world, and 2 top T's in the world. (2z 2T 0P)
Toughest opposition: Basically best of the best, with the exception of Startale P's, Hyun, Sniper and Mvp.
2012 Battle.net World Championship
Top4: 1º Parting ; 2º Creator; 3º Rain; 4º Sen
About Top4: Prolly the best 3 P's in the world, and foreigner Z. (1z 0T 3P)
Toughest opposition: Roro (code B), Curious (code A), Stephano, then pure foreigners
Observation: The 3 code S participants ended with the 3 top spots. Only 4T (all non korean) among 32 players.
World Cyber Games 2012:
Top 4: 1º Parting; 2ºAdelscot; 3º MacSed; 4º Lowely
About Top4: Top korean P and 3 foreigners. (1z 0T 3P)
Toughest opposition: MKP....... That's it. The rest of the player pool was just gm level, weaker compared to top pro level.
IEM Season VII - Singapore
Top 4: 1º Sting; 2º Grubby; 3º Slivko; 4º Vortix
About Top4: Korean T, and 3 foreigners. (2z 1T 1P)
Toughest opposition: Not much. MC (code A boss toss), Revival (code B zerg) and Yugioh (code A z).
Observations: Only 3 T players, only 1 korean, who took the trophy.
2012 DreamHack Open: Winter
Top4: 1º Hero; 2º Taeja; 3º monchi and Nerchio.
About Top4: Top korean P and Top korean T. Then 2 foreigners. (1z 1T 2P)
Toughest opposition: Naniwa, TheStc and Stephano. Rest are foreigners and foreign level koreans.
Observations: No korean Z. Only 4 T, still 2 managed to Ro8.
GSL Code S Season 4
Top4: 1º Life; 2º MvP; 3º Taeja and Rain.
About Top4: Top tier koreans. (1z 2T 1P)
Toughest opposition: Best of the best.
GSL Code S Season 5
Top4: 1º Sniper; 2º Hyun; 3º Bogus and Ryung.
About Top4: All top tier koreans. (2z 2T 0P)
Toughest opposition: Best of the best.
Observation: 1 P in Ro8
IGN ProLeague Season 5
Top4: 1º Leenock; 2º Violet; 3º Polt; 4º Bomber.
About Top4: All top tier koreans. (2z 2T 0P)
Toughest opposition: Best of the best, both koreans and foreigners (no Kespa players tho).
Observation: No P at Ro8, clear Z dominance in Tournament bracket.
What can you get from all these?
From the weaker tournaments (with the least quality of players, few koreans and lot of foreigners):
- Terrans are usually the least represented race between foreigners, by a huge margin.
- All were won almost always simply by the most notable/safe bet players. In those cases, those players were the invited korean P's.
Now all the tournaments that held all best of the best in the player pool (aka the players are not a limiting factor), have this facts:
- From the 4 top8's : 15z 12T 5P
- From the 4 top4's : 7z 8T 1P (all koreans)
- All were won by Z players.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/h2Z27.png)
