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TotalBiscuit
United Kingdom5437 Posts
"Borderlands will fail and is being sent out to die" (game is best selling original IP that year) "Consoles are far more powerful than PCs" (this was not the case then and certainly is not the case now). Basically don't pay any attention to what he has to say, paying him attention legitimises his position. | ||
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Deleted User 183001
2939 Posts
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
On February 19 2012 18:41 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: I'd say that's rather optimistic. Uhh, SC2's player base is declining. Halo, the 3rd(?) biggest esport in the US, has been declining rapidly over the past several years. CS is consistent in central-eastern Europe. CoD is growing steadily in the US. LoL is also growing steadily. Brood War is still a national sport in South Korea. etc. But overall, I think it will grow steadily, but doubling every 2 years is really, really stretching it. Meh. Huge e-sports titles coming out in the near future include Dota2 (which already draws upwards of 8-9k viewers on a daily basis for a game that is in early beta and lacks a central community site) and CS:GO (hopefully will revitalize the CS community). The thing that more or less guarantees the growth of e-sports is that developers are now actively trying to make their games e-sports. The biggest example of this is Valve with Dota2. They are literally pulling out all the stops to make it spectator/broadcast friendly. EDIT: Don't want to confuse this with me as agreeing with Pachter. Just wanted to say that steady, sustained growth in e-sports is to be expected. SC2 aside, there are plenty of other e-sports titles coming along. | ||
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Nihilnovi
Sweden696 Posts
Never heard of Michael Pachter, never heard of Wedbush Morgan. After watching his opinion on RTS that it's a "single player turn based" genre and that's why it doesn't work on consoles, I conclude that he is a very incompetent at his job and hence his opinion means nothing to me. Also, Esports viewership may indeed go up, but i have very little faith that SC2 will go beyond it's current point, in my opinion it will only go down and moba type games such as LoL & Dota2 will be by far and beyond the most viewed games and I really don't see any game dethroning LoL as the Esports flagship game anytime soon, influenced also because of the companies make an absolutely awesome user interface to promote esports and competitive gaming and not only that but take active measures to cultivate and grow the following and don't cripple tournament organizers with 50% fee's on ad revenue. Hm, no idea where that vent came from, maybe cos I grew up with blizz and now I'm starting to really dislike them since they are slowly turning into EA games -.- | ||
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DoomsVille
Canada4885 Posts
On February 19 2012 19:14 Nihilnovi wrote: Michael Pachter is a consumer analyst at Wedbush Morgan, a leading financial services and investment firm. Never heard of Michael Pachter, never heard of Wedbush Morgan. After watching his opinion on RTS that it's a "single player turn based" genre and that's why it doesn't work on consoles, I conclude that he is a very incompetent at his job and hence his opinion means nothing to me. Also, Esports viewership may indeed go up, but i have very little faith that SC2 will go beyond it's current point, in my opinion it will only go down and moba type games such as LoL & Dota2 will be by far and beyond the most viewed games and I really don't see any game dethroning LoL as the Esports flagship game anytime soon, influenced also because of the companies make an absolutely awesome user interface to promote esports and competitive gaming and not only that but take active measures to cultivate and grow the following and don't cripple tournament organizers with 50% fee's on ad revenue. Hm, no idea where that vent came from, maybe cos I grew up with blizz and now I'm starting to really dislike them since they are slowly turning into EA games -.- I have to give credit to Riot here. They've developed a game that is fun, free and easy to get into. A very intelligent business model that I think Valve will steal. If Valve was smart (and I think they are), they would make Dota 2 free. They will surely recoup any losses just with people buying random shit on steam. The free to play model works so much better with Dota2 than LoL and it is working amazing for Riot. | ||
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Zrana
United Kingdom698 Posts
This part makes me doubt his prediction (about sc2 anyway, maybe not esports in general) because there are huge numbers of people who own SC2 and watch MLG etc but don't actually play the game in any significant way, and I can't help thinking that these people are going to slowly lose interest in SC2 and drift away to more casual-friendly games. | ||
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RogerX
New Zealand3180 Posts
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Soleron
United Kingdom1324 Posts
Pachter has said Wii was a fad about a thousand times since 2006 because that's what he was being paid to get into people's heads. And look, it worked, the gaming press still believe Wii was just good marketing rather than an actual success. | ||
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Na_Dann_Ma_GoGo
Germany2959 Posts
It doesn't even matter if he says something that makes sense, well common sense rather, when it's just out of 2000 predictions. It's garbage analysts like him that make some game studios / publishers decide to make shitty steps. How this guy is seriously highly regarded, I dunno. But it's most likely duo to connections in the business rather than actual knowledge about the game industry. And let's not even talk about his knowledge about eSports, every TeamLiquid user surpasses him in that aspect, by miles. Edit: I mean yeh, obviously eSports is going to grow. Of course the chance that a console has a price drop after 3-4 years is high. No doubt publishers are intrigued by the idea of DLC. Clearly Modern Warfare 3, 4, 5 and 6 are going to sell like hotdogs. It's a pity that some people are impressed by the obvious things he predicts right, while they manage to ignore everything that's been wrong entirely. From that point of view, it's easy to be considered a genius. Edit2: Did you know, Pachter predicted that Blizzard is going to turn BNet2.0 into something requiring a monthly fee? In fact many customers were confused after this and asked Blizzard, who then responded something along the lines "we don't know who that guy is but we can assure you, BNet2.0 will not have a monthly fee." That guy deserves no attention, none at all. | ||
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Youtakenocandle
543 Posts
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ProxyKnoxy
United Kingdom2576 Posts
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sVnteen
Germany2238 Posts
well would be cool if this is true anyways so GOGO ESPORTS  | ||
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HaXXspetten
Sweden15718 Posts
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Joedaddy
United States1948 Posts
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imPermanenCe
Netherlands595 Posts
I don't even think televised matches will be that successful, since streaming just works so much better. During the stream you can do other things too, like chatting with friends about the matches etc. So I don't think it will pick on very well. | ||
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Zaphid
Czech Republic1860 Posts
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Humposaurus
Netherlands86 Posts
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coddan
Estonia890 Posts
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Fingulfin
United States110 Posts
On February 19 2012 11:23 confusedcrib wrote: I don't think that a three minute video of occasional things he has over-exaggerated completely invalidates his opinion. While I do think this is an over-estimate, that video of his mistakes should not suddenly make everything he says wrong. He does happen to have a more important games analyst job than anyone posting in here, and that should mean something. A video just cherry picking dumb things someone has said over a few years period is one thing, but these "mistakes" are pretty fucking off the mark. I have nothing against the guy (never heard of him before), but from what I saw in that video I would say he understands very little about things he claims he knows much about. If he honestly thought that "Real Time Strategy" means "Turn Based Single Player" then I really don't know what to make of his predictions. | ||
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Cirqueenflex
499 Posts
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