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[Aug] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 11

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drgonzhere
Profile Joined November 2010
United States447 Posts
September 06 2011 04:49 GMT
#201
Okay, it is officially time. Once brutal enemies the zerg and protoss must unite forces to take out the dreaded terran. For too long has their domination go unhindered, for too long have we stood idly by and watched as they dominated in all match ups.
Gentleman:
You all know the mission, and what is at stake.
I have come to trust each of you with my life -- but I have also heard murmurs of discontent. I share your concerns.
We are trained for battle; we would be legends, but the terran exist. Glory in battle is not our way.
Think of our heroes; the Gracken, who defeated a nation with a single complaint. Or the ObamaToss, who kept drops at bay with his mighty "penixes".
These giants do not seem to give us solace here, but they are not all that we are.
Before the network, there was the fleet. Before diplomacy, there were soldiers!
Our influence stopped the Overmind, but before that we held the line!
Our influence stopped the UED, but before that, we held the line!
Our influence will stop Terran; in the battle today, we will hold the line!

Let us sons of the Xel'Naga cease our fighting, unite, and make sure that when next month rolls around, it is the terran at the bottom of the win chart!
Dictator for Life of the PuMa Fanclub/ DRG, PuMA, Sage, Puzzle, MMA Fighting!
Not_That
Profile Joined April 2011
287 Posts
September 06 2011 04:55 GMT
#202
On September 06 2011 13:48 Brett wrote:
No surprises there, frankly...

The Korean stats are relevant. We've all looked at Korean Pro-BW stats for years as indicative of the general balance (with slight rock/paper/scissors features; T > Z > P > T) and they're a small sample size too. We've also used small numbers of matches to create map statistics to determine the balance of the specific map in BW too. Again, it's not really questioned, and maps that have shown win rates much > 70 odd % have generally found themselves quickly of of use...

They (korean pros) are the pinnacle of the game and large variance in win % in their game pools is concerning.


I agree. That's why I think the Korean graph should be posted for the month of August, and not just the international graph.
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
September 06 2011 05:56 GMT
#203
On September 06 2011 13:32 Not_That wrote:
I don't know how you can argue that. His argument boils down to 'Terran players are just better'. How does one go about proving such a thing? In a game with millions of players (and 114,000 players on the Korean server), can you really make the argument that the ones who chose Terran are simply better? Wouldn't it be more realistic to consider the possibility that the game is not balanced?


You can make the argument that Terran is the easiest transition from BW, since all of the mechanics basically shifted over with a few additions. Compared to chrono, inject, and warpgates, there's not much different about Terran from BW. Mix that with a population who feasts on BW and a strong showing at release and you have a recipe for attracting a lot of good, curious players.

The reality is that there are far more top Ts in Korea than any other race. If MC and Genius have slumps, that means P winrate drops off the face of the earth. If MVP and MMA have slumps, well Polt, MKP, Bomber, Ganzi, TOP, SC, etc. can still make up the numbers of Terran. That doesn't inherently mean T is imba, just that more top players picked T. It's not like we watch GSL these days and gawk at how bad Terrans are, yet still winning. We don't see SCV conga lines grabbing wins off better players like we did a year ago.
j0ker
Profile Joined August 2011
275 Posts
September 06 2011 06:03 GMT
#204
terran is the most popular race in korea. korean has more top pros playing terran. not only does this affect the numbers by itself, but builds and strategies grow exponentially faster because there are more heads working together. not saying terran isn't the strongest overall, but its certainly not dramatic. and i would love for a zerg to argue tvz is imbalanced.
red4ce
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States7313 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-09-06 06:12:46
September 06 2011 06:03 GMT
#205
On September 06 2011 14:56 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2011 13:32 Not_That wrote:
I don't know how you can argue that. His argument boils down to 'Terran players are just better'. How does one go about proving such a thing? In a game with millions of players (and 114,000 players on the Korean server), can you really make the argument that the ones who chose Terran are simply better? Wouldn't it be more realistic to consider the possibility that the game is not balanced?


You can make the argument that Terran is the easiest transition from BW, since all of the mechanics basically shifted over with a few additions. Compared to chrono, inject, and warpgates, there's not much different about Terran from BW. Mix that with a population who feasts on BW and a strong showing at release and you have a recipe for attracting a lot of good, curious players.

The reality is that there are far more top Ts in Korea than any other race. If MC and Genius have slumps, that means P winrate drops off the face of the earth. If MVP and MMA have slumps, well Polt, MKP, Bomber, Ganzi, TOP, SC, etc. can still make up the numbers of Terran. That doesn't inherently mean T is imba, just that more top players picked T. It's not like we watch GSL these days and gawk at how bad Terrans are, yet still winning. We don't see SCV conga lines grabbing wins off better players like we did a year ago.


Agreed. When you compare Korean terrans vs foreigner terrans, the gap in skill is obvious. When you compare Korean zergs vs foreigner zergs, the gap in skill is obvious. When you compare Korean protoss vs foreigner protoss, the gap in skill is obvious...with only MC. Just look at the performance of code S protoss in foreign tournements. I saw nothing in Sangho, Tester or Alicia that would indicate they are any measure better than elite foreign protoss like Naniwa, Whitera or Mana. If 2nd tier Korean protoss are only as good as foreigners, then it's reasonable to suggest Korea is lacking in good protoss.
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
September 06 2011 06:05 GMT
#206
On September 06 2011 14:56 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2011 13:32 Not_That wrote:
I don't know how you can argue that. His argument boils down to 'Terran players are just better'. How does one go about proving such a thing? In a game with millions of players (and 114,000 players on the Korean server), can you really make the argument that the ones who chose Terran are simply better? Wouldn't it be more realistic to consider the possibility that the game is not balanced?


You can make the argument that Terran is the easiest transition from BW, since all of the mechanics basically shifted over with a few additions. Compared to chrono, inject, and warpgates, there's not much different about Terran from BW. Mix that with a population who feasts on BW and a strong showing at release and you have a recipe for attracting a lot of good, curious players.

The reality is that there are far more top Ts in Korea than any other race. If MC and Genius have slumps, that means P winrate drops off the face of the earth. If MVP and MMA have slumps, well Polt, MKP, Bomber, Ganzi, TOP, SC, etc. can still make up the numbers of Terran. That doesn't inherently mean T is imba, just that more top players picked T. It's not like we watch GSL these days and gawk at how bad Terrans are, yet still winning. We don't see SCV conga lines grabbing wins off better players like we did a year ago.


This is illogical.

You list macro mechanic changes for Protoss and Zerg and leave out Terran's? I don't see how you can state that Terran is "not much different about Terran from BW". I would think the people calling for vultures, goliaths, firebats, science vessels, wraiths and every other BW unit would disagree with you.

Then you state that because there are far more Terran's who are consistently doing well, they are not imbalanced. I am not going to argue they are imbalanced but this hardly supports your argument. Rather, perhaps they are doing well because they have an advantage. It goes both ways. Remember, imbalance doesn't have to be "SCV conga lines grabbing wins", it is the thin edge of wedge, that gives a player an advantage. See Day9's awesome article on this point.

Argue that there isn't enough data, or that its biased, or that the variance is due to chance; but the argument you put forward is illogical.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
tomatriedes
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
New Zealand5356 Posts
September 06 2011 07:25 GMT
#207
I wonder if the terran player/fans would be quite so sanguine about these win rates if it were the other races that were ahead. Methinks not.
Sedz
Profile Joined February 2011
Australia123 Posts
September 06 2011 07:31 GMT
#208
On September 06 2011 15:05 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2011 14:56 aksfjh wrote:
On September 06 2011 13:32 Not_That wrote:
I don't know how you can argue that. His argument boils down to 'Terran players are just better'. How does one go about proving such a thing? In a game with millions of players (and 114,000 players on the Korean server), can you really make the argument that the ones who chose Terran are simply better? Wouldn't it be more realistic to consider the possibility that the game is not balanced?


You can make the argument that Terran is the easiest transition from BW, since all of the mechanics basically shifted over with a few additions. Compared to chrono, inject, and warpgates, there's not much different about Terran from BW. Mix that with a population who feasts on BW and a strong showing at release and you have a recipe for attracting a lot of good, curious players.

The reality is that there are far more top Ts in Korea than any other race. If MC and Genius have slumps, that means P winrate drops off the face of the earth. If MVP and MMA have slumps, well Polt, MKP, Bomber, Ganzi, TOP, SC, etc. can still make up the numbers of Terran. That doesn't inherently mean T is imba, just that more top players picked T. It's not like we watch GSL these days and gawk at how bad Terrans are, yet still winning. We don't see SCV conga lines grabbing wins off better players like we did a year ago.


This is illogical.

You list macro mechanic changes for Protoss and Zerg and leave out Terran's? I don't see how you can state that Terran is "not much different about Terran from BW". I would think the people calling for vultures, goliaths, firebats, science vessels, wraiths and every other BW unit would disagree with you.

Then you state that because there are far more Terran's who are consistently doing well, they are not imbalanced. I am not going to argue they are imbalanced but this hardly supports your argument. Rather, perhaps they are doing well because they have an advantage. It goes both ways. Remember, imbalance doesn't have to be "SCV conga lines grabbing wins", it is the thin edge of wedge, that gives a player an advantage. See Day9's awesome article on this point.

Argue that there isn't enough data, or that its biased, or that the variance is due to chance; but the argument you put forward is illogical.


Are you retarded?

User was warned for this post
AsGSedZ.549
Fission
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada1184 Posts
September 06 2011 07:36 GMT
#209
I'm so tired of balance whining against terran at this point that I'd accept massive nerfs to my race if it meant people didn't delegitimize wins anymore.
Ctuchik
Profile Joined October 2010
Sweden91 Posts
September 06 2011 07:45 GMT
#210
On September 06 2011 12:28 Cone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2011 10:15 Gegenschein wrote:
People should learn not to put green and red in a graph, especially when there are only 3 colors involved.
They'd make us color blind folks happy.

Yeah, I agree with this. Especially because it was so clear during the earlier months and also because red-green color blindness is actually not all that uncommon (I think its almost like 1 in every 10 males is red-green colorblind). It used to be yellow for P, purple for Z and red for T and it was very vibrant and easily distinguishable, I think the colors actually suited each race better as well. I guess it wasn't traditional enough as far as the TL color icons went so they switched it to match those.


Yeah, sorry about that. I think the TL colors are ideal for most of the community, but obviously not all. I was hoping the symbols would make it somewhat readable for color blind.

It's very little work for me to release an alternate color version if you are interested.
http://twitter.com/sc2statistics
Loooui
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Sweden348 Posts
September 06 2011 08:50 GMT
#211
On September 06 2011 10:44 Ihpares wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

Based on the sample size for August there's about a 2% Margin of Error. Basically, we can take it to mean that if the sample size were larger for the month of August, Terran could actually be around 50.4%, and Protoss around 48.9%. That's relatively balanced.

That said, we haven't seen the Korean graphs. The win rates may not be so forgiving in Korea.


If so, this could also mean that Protoss have 44.9% win rate.

Protoss is struggling heavily these days and i really hope the new patch will make it more balanced. I think that for many terran players own sake, they need the nerf. Just to be able to legitmize their wins.

mburke05
Profile Joined October 2010
United States130 Posts
September 06 2011 08:54 GMT
#212
On September 06 2011 15:05 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2011 14:56 aksfjh wrote:
On September 06 2011 13:32 Not_That wrote:
I don't know how you can argue that. His argument boils down to 'Terran players are just better'. How does one go about proving such a thing? In a game with millions of players (and 114,000 players on the Korean server), can you really make the argument that the ones who chose Terran are simply better? Wouldn't it be more realistic to consider the possibility that the game is not balanced?


You can make the argument that Terran is the easiest transition from BW, since all of the mechanics basically shifted over with a few additions. Compared to chrono, inject, and warpgates, there's not much different about Terran from BW. Mix that with a population who feasts on BW and a strong showing at release and you have a recipe for attracting a lot of good, curious players.

The reality is that there are far more top Ts in Korea than any other race. If MC and Genius have slumps, that means P winrate drops off the face of the earth. If MVP and MMA have slumps, well Polt, MKP, Bomber, Ganzi, TOP, SC, etc. can still make up the numbers of Terran. That doesn't inherently mean T is imba, just that more top players picked T. It's not like we watch GSL these days and gawk at how bad Terrans are, yet still winning. We don't see SCV conga lines grabbing wins off better players like we did a year ago.


This is illogical.

You list macro mechanic changes for Protoss and Zerg and leave out Terran's? I don't see how you can state that Terran is "not much different about Terran from BW". I would think the people calling for vultures, goliaths, firebats, science vessels, wraiths and every other BW unit would disagree with you.

Then you state that because there are far more Terran's who are consistently doing well, they are not imbalanced. I am not going to argue they are imbalanced but this hardly supports your argument. Rather, perhaps they are doing well because they have an advantage. It goes both ways. Remember, imbalance doesn't have to be "SCV conga lines grabbing wins", it is the thin edge of wedge, that gives a player an advantage. See Day9's awesome article on this point.

Argue that there isn't enough data, or that its biased, or that the variance is due to chance; but the argument you put forward is illogical.


i'd like to nominate this post for longest-post-that-says-nothing for this thread.

seriously dude wtf are you trying to argue lol? that he cant argue? like wat?
Tuk
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom223 Posts
September 06 2011 09:29 GMT
#213
This is pretty much irrelevant to 99% of people on here i believe this stats are from tournys etc? so these figures literally prove nothing for how your game is playing even, on like the Gm ladder? For example i believe in my situatuon which is eu dia its like a 4:4:3 ratio for p/z/t and t has the lowest winrate and imo is the hardest to play that level, the top level of play says otherwise but for me thats irrelevant.

Also i cant see why anyone can complain about this id admit toss is a bit low but if T drops down by 1% and toss is up by 1% then its pretty brilliant and 1.4 will probably achieve this
Not_That
Profile Joined April 2011
287 Posts
September 06 2011 09:41 GMT
#214
On September 06 2011 18:29 Tuk wrote:
This is pretty much irrelevant to 99% of people on here i believe this stats are from tournys etc? so these figures literally prove nothing for how your game is playing even, on like the Gm ladder? For example i believe in my situatuon which is eu dia its like a 4:4:3 ratio for p/z/t and t has the lowest winrate and imo is the hardest to play that level, the top level of play says otherwise but for me thats irrelevant.

Also i cant see why anyone can complain about this id admit toss is a bit low but if T drops down by 1% and toss is up by 1% then its pretty brilliant and 1.4 will probably achieve this



Balance affects all levels, not just GSL code S or whatever arbitrary line you wish to draw.

And no, if P goes up by 1% and T down by 1% it won't be 'brilliant'. Last month's Korean statistics were 38.8% for P.
FeyFey
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany10114 Posts
September 06 2011 09:58 GMT
#215
wow i really thought protoss would drop more, but doesn't look that bad actually. And i wish tvz would be so easy as the graph makes me wanna think it is x3. Well i think the patch should move those graphs x3
Gamma4
Profile Joined March 2011
Australia75 Posts
September 06 2011 10:02 GMT
#216
wow protoss needs some more/ better players ahah
Just Huking around ;)
TumbaSC
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States78 Posts
September 06 2011 11:37 GMT
#217
On September 05 2011 20:04 spacemonkeyy wrote:
Yet according to Idra- protoss still OP. Fucking LOL.


Actually now his response is that Protoss players are all (to quote verbatim) "retarded". Evidently, none of the Protoss are playing the game correctly according to Idra.

My question for Idra is: if Protoss is so damn good why don't you play as Protoss? My guess would be because then he wouldn't have an excuse when he loses.

Statistics don't lie. And if we look at the top level of play: Code A TvT, Code S TvT, MLG Anaheim lots of Terran at the top with a Terran victory, MLG Raleigh another T victory. Korean ladder dominated by Korean Terran. Can't argue results.

Dustin Browder says Terran is the most complete race, which in a game this young means we are only starting to see the trend of what Terran is capable of. This statement from Mr. Browder insinuates that Protoss and Zerg are not complete, and thus relegated to less strategy.
Toadvine
Profile Joined November 2010
Poland2234 Posts
September 06 2011 13:28 GMT
#218
I think every pro should play Terran, since TvT is such a fun matchup.

Then, after HotS comes out, they can all switch to Zerg, which will be the most "complete" race at that point.

And finally, after LotV, we can see some "complete" Protoss mirrors. Assuming anybody sticks around to watch or play this silly game afterwards.

If you're an aspiring progamer looking to choose your race, there's literally no reason not to pick Terran, all other things being equal. Whether this implies "imbalance", or whatever, is totally irrelevant in the end. What is relevant, is that eventually we're going to have 24+ Terrans in Code S, and some Protosses and Zerg hanging on by only practicing their vT. That is, and I don't use this phrase lightly, what could truly hurt SC2 as an e-sport. It's the fate of all the other "competitive" RTS games, with tournaments only being played with one race, and so forth.
"There are always some Eskimos ready to instruct the Congolese on how to cope with heat waves." - S.J.Lec
Bagi
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6799 Posts
September 06 2011 14:07 GMT
#219
On September 06 2011 22:28 Toadvine wrote:
I think every pro should play Terran, since TvT is such a fun matchup.

Then, after HotS comes out, they can all switch to Zerg, which will be the most "complete" race at that point.

And finally, after LotV, we can see some "complete" Protoss mirrors. Assuming anybody sticks around to watch or play this silly game afterwards.

If you're an aspiring progamer looking to choose your race, there's literally no reason not to pick Terran, all other things being equal. Whether this implies "imbalance", or whatever, is totally irrelevant in the end. What is relevant, is that eventually we're going to have 24+ Terrans in Code S, and some Protosses and Zerg hanging on by only practicing their vT. That is, and I don't use this phrase lightly, what could truly hurt SC2 as an e-sport. It's the fate of all the other "competitive" RTS games, with tournaments only being played with one race, and so forth.

Actually if you're a foreigner, you're better off playing protoss. Top3 foreigners in prize money won are protoss, and a foreigner terran winning a major tournament hasn't happened since Thorzain won TSL.

But by all means, stop watching already if you find it so silly. We have enough protoss players playing victim as it is.
Toadvine
Profile Joined November 2010
Poland2234 Posts
September 06 2011 14:39 GMT
#220
On September 06 2011 23:07 Bagi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2011 22:28 Toadvine wrote:
I think every pro should play Terran, since TvT is such a fun matchup.

Then, after HotS comes out, they can all switch to Zerg, which will be the most "complete" race at that point.

And finally, after LotV, we can see some "complete" Protoss mirrors. Assuming anybody sticks around to watch or play this silly game afterwards.

If you're an aspiring progamer looking to choose your race, there's literally no reason not to pick Terran, all other things being equal. Whether this implies "imbalance", or whatever, is totally irrelevant in the end. What is relevant, is that eventually we're going to have 24+ Terrans in Code S, and some Protosses and Zerg hanging on by only practicing their vT. That is, and I don't use this phrase lightly, what could truly hurt SC2 as an e-sport. It's the fate of all the other "competitive" RTS games, with tournaments only being played with one race, and so forth.

Actually if you're a foreigner, you're better off playing protoss. Top3 foreigners in prize money won are protoss, and a foreigner terran winning a major tournament hasn't happened since Thorzain won TSL.

But by all means, stop watching already if you find it so silly. We have enough protoss players playing victim as it is.


I don't think this is such a good prospect, considering we now have Koreans in every major tournament. And foreigner Protosses really don't do that well against Koreans (except for HuK, but his "foreigner" status is a bit iffy). And in any case, choosing Protoss for this reason is essentially hoping your opponents play bad. If you have confidence in your mechanics, multitasking and micro, then Terran is still your best bet.

And how am I "playing victim"? I'm complaining about this as a viewer, as a player it obviously doesn't affect me at all. And yes, I find myself watching less and less SC2 (GSL in particular), because you can only watch so much TvT, or Terran 1 base all-ins against Protoss, until it becomes extremely tedious. Thank god for Zerg at least, TvZ and PvZ are both quite fun and interesting.
"There are always some Eskimos ready to instruct the Congolese on how to cope with heat waves." - S.J.Lec
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