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On October 14 2014 13:24 ZombieFrog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 13:01 plogamer wrote:On October 14 2014 12:50 Maniak_ wrote:On October 14 2014 11:50 plogamer wrote: It is a shame when players from the race with better economy and mobility feel that they have the privilege of taking simple, head-on engagements and still trade cost-efficiently. Yeah but they're terrans. You can't ask them to be logical. Then again, it's actually true in their case, so you can't really blame them. ps. Big J , there's no need to be condescending when you don't have a straight answer to a straight question. Yeah, condescension is supposed to be a terran ability. Others should not try to steal it. Are you really serious that Terran economy and mobility is superior to Zergs in bio vs. ling/bane/muta? Snarky responses only makes it seem that there is no real response. Because making broad generalized statements about races is clearly better. For example, what does "better economy" mean? Terran can mine minerals faster than zerg on less bases with far less supply dedicated to worker count leaving extra supply for army compared to zerg. In addition, the longer the game goes the less they even need workers. In super late game scenarios terran players have sacrificed most of their scvs for supply, had only one mining base, and muled it so much that they mined at a rate that would take the other races 3 mining bases to equal. On the other hand zerg can expand easier and mine more gas, but that also means they must defend more bases and dedicate more supply to workers. Which is better? Well they're different. They're better at different things. One is not objectively a "better economy" in every situation. Same with mobility. Lings and mutas are fast, but there's no good way for zerg to drop or elevator units up and down ledges or pick up in the middle of a fight. Again, they are different, one is not "superior mobility" Your broad generalized and wrong statements are just as snarky and condescending as the ones you supposedly don't like.
Terrans have not been saccing SCVs for economic growth since Slayers_Boxer. Really though, Terrans don't do it. Each orbital is about 3.5 SCVs of "mule power" which means that a 3base terran only ahead in minerals vs a 3base zerg and only if they don't use scans.
4 base zerg vs 3 base terran Zerg is ahead on minerals and gas.
A terran would need 5 orbitals before he has a "mineral line" of mules dropping--and only if he never uses a scan ever.
At that point, the information from scanning becomes much more useful than extra minerals since its the fucking late game and knowing zerg's and protoss' tech switches is much more valuable to a slow production terran than some extra minerals.
Not saying Terran is "behind" or anything--they're not. Its actually very very even between the two. But Mules are not free SCVs nor does mass orbital actually make a strategy.
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On October 14 2014 11:50 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 04:30 Big J wrote:On October 14 2014 04:11 plogamer wrote:On October 13 2014 23:40 antiRW wrote:On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote: I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff. I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings 2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all. 3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending. I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything. ... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture. Please explain why zergs are still attacking from 1 direction with no flanks with muta/ling/bling; the fastest moving army comp in the game. That was how Scarlett beat Bomber with mass banes before mine-nerf was reverted (vs Z). That was how soO fought against Innovation, and lost after the patch. Spoiled zergs are gonna have to take a few spanking before they learn to use their mobility to flank their opponents. Personally, I'm just too stupid. I can barely remember to breath while typing! ... and there it is. Stubbornness. It is a shame when players from the race with better economy and mobility feel that they have the privilege of taking simple, head-on engagements and still trade cost-efficiently. I, for one, am glad Scarlett can no longer use mass banes without flanks and take out Bomber. ps. Big J , there's no need to be condescending when you don't have a straight answer to a straight question.
soO sets up the hugest concave possible vs Innovation game 6. Innovation drops all his mines. He only has like 2 that are rallied. Goes on creep, against this huuuuuge concave. soO wins the combat and gets out with a 30supply lead. Then you come in and take that game as proof that Zergs don't flank. And then you are wondering why I'm being condescending?
Nearly all of the time we see Zergs barely finishing their banelings, half of the time not even. Half of the time some part of the banelings (that get insta started after the zerglings have rallied forward) get canceled by the perma-attacking 4M force before finishing. And then you tell me those units should actually be on a 20second trip somewhere else? You gotta forgive me when I'm condescending here reading useless advice how zergs should play.
Edit: At this point I could go into a discussion about "better economy and mobility"...
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On October 14 2014 15:07 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 11:50 plogamer wrote:On October 14 2014 04:30 Big J wrote:On October 14 2014 04:11 plogamer wrote:On October 13 2014 23:40 antiRW wrote:On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote: I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff. I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings 2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all. 3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending. I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything. ... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture. Please explain why zergs are still attacking from 1 direction with no flanks with muta/ling/bling; the fastest moving army comp in the game. That was how Scarlett beat Bomber with mass banes before mine-nerf was reverted (vs Z). That was how soO fought against Innovation, and lost after the patch. Spoiled zergs are gonna have to take a few spanking before they learn to use their mobility to flank their opponents. Personally, I'm just too stupid. I can barely remember to breath while typing! ... and there it is. Stubbornness. It is a shame when players from the race with better economy and mobility feel that they have the privilege of taking simple, head-on engagements and still trade cost-efficiently. I, for one, am glad Scarlett can no longer use mass banes without flanks and take out Bomber. ps. Big J , there's no need to be condescending when you don't have a straight answer to a straight question. soO sets up the hugest concave possible vs Innovation game 6. Innovation drops all his mines. He only has like 2 that are rallied. Goes on creep, against this huuuuuge concave. soO wins the combat and gets out with a 30supply lead. Then you come in and take that game as proof that Zergs don't flank. And then you are wondering why I'm being condescending? Nearly all of the time we see Zergs barely finishing their banelings, half of the time not even. Half of the time some part of the banelings (that get insta started after the zerglings have rallied forward) get canceled by the perma-attacking 4M force before finishing. And then you tell me those units should actually be on a 20second trip somewhere else? You gotta forgive me when I'm condescending here reading useless advice how zergs should play. Edit: At this point I could go into a discussion about "better economy and mobility"...
Hope you remembered to breathe this time.
I wasn't giving advice, afaik soO isn't reading this thread. You assume I was giving advice, take offense, and then go on and act on that assumption like a pompous ass. It's a simple critique. In WoL, I have seen Polt with virtually surrounds on Zerg lategame army and that sometimes still wasn't enough. Speedling flanks would have the added advantage of splashing mine damage all over the Terran army.
You point out yourself that Zergs can win combat with good engagements. Can you say that soO played with good engagements consistently? Imagine if he had a flank on top of a concave, that 30 supply lead would be even bigger. Zergs that you see barely finishing their banelings are in that position due to their poor engagements. DRG already showed how to deal with 4M long ago, I don't see why you're still complaining about a 'perma-attacking 4M force'.
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The fact that you can only find one game of drg as an example clearly shows it is far harder to do than to say
It's the same thing as people saying terran should do more ghost medivac emp drop in battle.
You can't do it for every engagement and it's not as simple as it is.
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On October 14 2014 16:12 plogamer wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 15:07 Big J wrote:On October 14 2014 11:50 plogamer wrote:On October 14 2014 04:30 Big J wrote:On October 14 2014 04:11 plogamer wrote:On October 13 2014 23:40 antiRW wrote:On October 13 2014 23:30 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 23:16 Big J wrote:On October 13 2014 22:41 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 13 2014 22:29 HEADD wrote: I see TVZ strongly unbalanced right now.With recent Thor buff and widow mine buff without reverting hellbats buff. I think this will balance the game:
1-revert helbatt buff-This prevent zerg from having good early economy+forcing him to banelings 2-revert thor buff-this is just stupid buff.Complete anti muta buff.Not necessary at all and pretty much forcing zerg not use mutas at all. 3-widow mine slightly nerf-Not in same state 3 moths ago, but slightly nerf, because i seen so many times 1 widow mine kills 20banelings in 1 hit.This is just not right.1 little mistake by zerg and ist game ending. I think 70-80% of current splash damage would be OK.
Terrans will have still decent widow mines, but not that good that they can wipe 20 banelings with 1 hit and zergs still need micro.
Then why does Zerg win more often than Terran does according to aligulac? Sorry, but most of the stats of aligulac are not interesting for the highest level of balance. Even if it is only 50% it is a big problem if we judge balance by this. Here are the stats of all the tournaments minus WCS America that took place in the last two days: Seacraft Weekly #24: TvZ 7–1 (87.50%) Notable TvZs: ??? WECG Qualifier Korea Playoffs: TvZ 3–2 (60.00%) Notable TvZs: Dark vs Ty Gfinity 1v1 Cup #31 TvZ 0–0 (0%) Notable TvZs: --- go4sc2 Cup Europe #413 TvZ 8–9 (47.06%) Notable TvZs: YoDa 1-2 TargA Dragon 0–2 Tefel PxL-Lan #41 TvZ 1–4 (20.00%) Notable TvZs: ??? --> 25/35 (71%) games are not even worth mentioning when discussing balance on a high level in that periode of time. It's complete bonkers to watch aligulac stats and then make so exact statements as "Zerg is winning more than Terran because 48%". Yes, in the aligulac coverage it is. If we don't arbitrarily cut by tournament participation and take a different "arbitrary" cut, namely WCS Premier Leagues, this is what we get: WCS AM: 27-15 (64%) WCS EU: 25 - 21 (54%) GSL Code S: 19-13 (59%) And I do not like the practice of "these numbers that don't agree with my conclusions are wrong" bible thumper mentality. You take all of the data, all of the different degrees of the data, and have each aspect of the data inform different parts of the conclusion. Individual player performance shows what is possible. Totality of player performances shows what is happening. You have to integrate what is possible with what is happening to be able to make conclusions about anything. ... which was exactly his point. Namely that statements such as "nothing is broken because aligulac's 48%" are not useful, because aligulac along is not reflective of the full picture. Please explain why zergs are still attacking from 1 direction with no flanks with muta/ling/bling; the fastest moving army comp in the game. That was how Scarlett beat Bomber with mass banes before mine-nerf was reverted (vs Z). That was how soO fought against Innovation, and lost after the patch. Spoiled zergs are gonna have to take a few spanking before they learn to use their mobility to flank their opponents. Personally, I'm just too stupid. I can barely remember to breath while typing! ... and there it is. Stubbornness. It is a shame when players from the race with better economy and mobility feel that they have the privilege of taking simple, head-on engagements and still trade cost-efficiently. I, for one, am glad Scarlett can no longer use mass banes without flanks and take out Bomber. ps. Big J , there's no need to be condescending when you don't have a straight answer to a straight question. soO sets up the hugest concave possible vs Innovation game 6. Innovation drops all his mines. He only has like 2 that are rallied. Goes on creep, against this huuuuuge concave. soO wins the combat and gets out with a 30supply lead. Then you come in and take that game as proof that Zergs don't flank. And then you are wondering why I'm being condescending? Nearly all of the time we see Zergs barely finishing their banelings, half of the time not even. Half of the time some part of the banelings (that get insta started after the zerglings have rallied forward) get canceled by the perma-attacking 4M force before finishing. And then you tell me those units should actually be on a 20second trip somewhere else? You gotta forgive me when I'm condescending here reading useless advice how zergs should play. Edit: At this point I could go into a discussion about "better economy and mobility"... Hope you remembered to breathe this time. I wasn't giving advice, afaik soO isn't reading this thread. You assume I was giving advice, take offense, and then go on and act on that assumption like a pompous ass. It's a simple critique. In WoL, I have seen Polt with virtually surrounds on Zerg lategame army and that sometimes still wasn't enough. Speedling flanks would have the added advantage of splashing mine damage all over the Terran army. You point out yourself that Zergs can win combat with good engagements. Can you say that soO played with good engagements consistently? Imagine if he had a flank on top of a concave, that 30 supply lead would be even bigger. Zergs that you see barely finishing their banelings are in that position due to their poor engagements. DRG already showed how to deal with 4M long ago, I don't see why you're still complaining about a 'perma-attacking 4M force'.
In game6? Nope, he had one massively advantageous engagement. Then he threw the game by trying to actually end it instead of waiting for Innovation to run out of resources on 3 or 4 bases.
OK, so I gotta settle this once and for all. DRG did exactly what Zergs today do in his series against Innovation. Maybe some of you should go and rewatch it. G1, Whirlwind: -) 11-12mins, first engagment. Romantic Terran idea of Zerg flanking? Nope. He did this the exact same way Zergs today do it, by running in from your creep position. -) around 14mins. Engagment. From one angle. -) 14:30-15: Frontal engagment. DRG takes a supply lead ... I'm not going to go through each and every engagment now, you can watch it yourself. There is nothing DRG magically does better controlwise. He engages in the same ways todays Zergs do. He loses units to mines left and right, etc.
The one thing I want to point out: + Show Spoiler + Counterattacks with no or rather few banelings. No commitment to actually trying to kill the Terran, only limiting his basecount past 3-4. DRG fails to achieve that and eventually loses the game because Innovation gets a 4th and 5th base.
No let's quickly go through g2 and g3: g2 similar to game1, Innovation skips a 4th CC this time though, DRG does a little stronger counterattack with some banelings which puts him on the verge of losing, but eventually Innovation runs out of money. Not a lot to see here but a Terran that does sacrifice his lategame plan for a little more pushing power in the midgame and fails to win with this allinish move. g3, exactly the same as game2, just that Innovation starts making even more mistakes, building 4ebays and - unlike in other games where he usually is 5-10supply ahead of the Zerg in the midgame - is 5-10supply behind. He never gets control of the game, DRG is allowed to set up static defenses all around the map and Innovation decides to not build a 4th, to not rely on drop play but rather 3base headbang straight into the defenses.
What these games do not show: -) amazing flanks -) a zerg that is near immune to widow mine hits due to some micro that all Zergs are suddenly too dumb to use
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Okay let's analyse the big flank in game 6 of GSL finals please casue everybody talks about it.
1- First of all, let's take a moment to realize that soO is semi on tilt, starts roach upgrades and speed and makes like 5 roaches, looses a lot of time and ressource by being hesitant on his strategy.
It's not the soO that stomped falsh on the same map like 4 weeks before. Go rewatch Flash vs soO and see what soO is able of when he's in his normal state of mind.
2-When big flank occurs (15'15 ingame time) :
* Inno is 2/2, soO is 1/2 (with also +1 range weapons)
* armies are comparable in size (123 vs 125)
* only 2 mines on the battle field cause Inno just dropped some in soO's base 3 and 4
* soO has a decent flank (coming form south and west) but is offcreep.
* Inno burrow his two mines but they do nothing.
* inno splits and pulls back to his base where 3 more mines are burrowed, they do nothing thanks to soO's great targeting.
* at this point armies are 76 vs 99 in favor of soO, he has 8 roaches, 7 mutas, rest is plenty of baneling + lings
* INno loads his army in his medivacs and fly them behind his wall (note : there are actually more medivacs than mutas)
* inside the base of INno the reprod (2 maruaders 6 marines 3 burrowed mines) is waiting like they think it's sparta.
3 - now the big moment : soO choose to yolo bust the third's ramp
* he looses 11 banelings to kill 3 depos and 4 mines
* INno has a sim city behind this with narows path blocked by marines adn even a bunker in the back with scv ready to repair.
* soO has 6 muta, 8 banelings left, rest are a few roaches and mass lings.
* soO goes in anyway but kill practically nothing, looses all his banelings and muta (there is one good hit from one mine)
* seeing INno's reprod, soO backs up
4- when dust settles down :
* armies are even * soO has no muta and no baneling left he's still 1/2 with +2 attack halfway done, 1 armor for muta 80% done * INno has 10 medivacs to support his marines and marauders, 3/3 is 25% done * INno drops mines again in the 4th.
5 The End :
* soO waits for his +2 and more army again and goes for it again, slightly delayed by the mine drop at the 4th * soO has 11 mutas, 20 banelings (+11 morphing nearby) * army is 99 vs 96 in favor of INno * soO has no flank this time, and INno is prepared (mine burrowed and marines splited)
* the engagement is somewhat succesful for soO he kills all the mines and plenty of marines, but he only has 3 roaches and 8 muta to face the reinforcements of INno who once agains fall back to his third and holds
* soO proceeeds to kill the medivacs, only one left now * the 11 banelings finally come in but marines come by packs of 14 and good split and a few marauders are enough to hold, * soO falls back with 2 roaches and 8 mutas. * INno drops 3 mines again in soO's third * soO goes back one last time with plenty of banelings, but 3/3 is done for INno * soO kills scv for the first time (12 kills) but is forced back
* Now army supply is in favor of INno 71 vs 53, soO has only 2 muta left
* it's 19:45 ingame time, ressources lost is 16k for INno vs 22k for soO at the 15th minute it was 1.4 k vs 1.8k
* INno can now take his 4th while dropping like crazy : he's totally in his comfort zone. he has killed 48 drones, soO has killed 18.
soO will manage to make one last big go, but offcreep, with an upgrade deficit, with less army and drops harassing his mineral lines meanwhile it will be more for his honor than for a real chance to win that game.
INno will kill the 5th and just push and rally at the 4th and get the GG.
Conclusion :
I watched and rewatched these 5 minutes again, and I can safely say that if there is an imbalance, it's certainly not on the WM. They did very little in the fights, the only thing that was good with WM was all these drop INno did each time he knew muta where out of postion or simply dead.
soO invested tons and tons of ressources to bust a well defended third, he was really all-in, and he was close to succeed, but INno defended with good simcity and splits, and when you're in this situtaion as a terran you know you just have to keep being cost effective and upgrading and eventually you'll have a good chance to win.
soO never managed to damage INno's economy, while INno kept killing drones.
So I'm not taking any conclusion here (beside that a fully confindent INnoVation outplayed an all-ining soO) I'm just saying that it's not in this game that you can find an evidence of WM being OP.
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On October 14 2014 13:42 Thieving Magpie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 10:42 antiRW wrote:On October 14 2014 10:11 r691175002 wrote: I'm looking at aligulac right now and a Zerg is the #1 ranked player in the word, followed by a Protoss. In fact, PvZ is the most imbalanced matchup right now at 45%. PvT is Protoss favored, and TvZ is only out by two percent.
If you think we need a patch right before Blizzcon, and after watching only a month of gameplay, you are going to be disappointed. Sorry, but your comment adds nothing. The current aligulac rates have been discussed 5-10 pages ago. There a reasons the current debate is focussed on more sophisticated metrics and individual or collection of games, and they are listed on the last 10 or so pages. If you take actual top level play into account, PvZ is slightly P favoured, PvT is slightly T favoured and TvZ is heavily T favoured. It adds a whole lot. Your metric is only relevant to the subset you demarcated. When discussing the totality of TvZ the whole of Aligulac is necessary. The arbitrary demarcation you placed simply allows us to compare a certain subset of players to each other, with the assumption that those subset of players are representative of the greater whole (or, more accurately, representative of the potential limits of the races as a whole) However, when discussing the balance of the matchup in a totality as opposed to a representative minority, Aligulac is definitely more accurate than your system. But your system is more relevant when asking how well player X does in metagame Y.
Even during the BL/Infestor era, the ladder winrate was about even. Game was balanced all along?
... And yes, I know that's a bad example for balance. But so is your example. If you count in the entire Aligulac, games between full time Korean pros against some Europeans is countsd the same way, Innovation vs soO is. This leads to a HUGE amount of games which were decided, before the game even started, because one player is just superior in every way. This again leads to an even win%, even if the top 100 Zerg lose to the top 100 Terran 100% of the time. And that would definitely mean that the game is imbalanced, even if Aligulac says something else.
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terran has just won every wcs region in dominating fashion and took most tournaments since the latest patch was released
be honest now, something is a bit off atm, its quite similiar to the protoss domination before and during wcs season 2
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On October 14 2014 20:35 Tsubbi wrote: terran has just won every wcs region in dominating fashion and took most tournaments since the latest patch was released
be honest now, something is a bit off atm, its quite similiar to the protoss domination before and during wcs season 2
Can we wait until there's 3 Protoss or 3 Zerg in Code S before we say it's the same situation? So far, fewer Terrans have qualified for 2015 S1 Code S than Protoss or Zerg. I don't think we're at full blown crisis mode just yet.
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On October 14 2014 18:20 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 13:42 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 14 2014 10:42 antiRW wrote:On October 14 2014 10:11 r691175002 wrote: I'm looking at aligulac right now and a Zerg is the #1 ranked player in the word, followed by a Protoss. In fact, PvZ is the most imbalanced matchup right now at 45%. PvT is Protoss favored, and TvZ is only out by two percent.
If you think we need a patch right before Blizzcon, and after watching only a month of gameplay, you are going to be disappointed. Sorry, but your comment adds nothing. The current aligulac rates have been discussed 5-10 pages ago. There a reasons the current debate is focussed on more sophisticated metrics and individual or collection of games, and they are listed on the last 10 or so pages. If you take actual top level play into account, PvZ is slightly P favoured, PvT is slightly T favoured and TvZ is heavily T favoured. It adds a whole lot. Your metric is only relevant to the subset you demarcated. When discussing the totality of TvZ the whole of Aligulac is necessary. The arbitrary demarcation you placed simply allows us to compare a certain subset of players to each other, with the assumption that those subset of players are representative of the greater whole (or, more accurately, representative of the potential limits of the races as a whole) However, when discussing the balance of the matchup in a totality as opposed to a representative minority, Aligulac is definitely more accurate than your system. But your system is more relevant when asking how well player X does in metagame Y. Even during the BL/Infestor era, the ladder winrate was about even. Game was balanced all along? ... And yes, I know that's a bad example for balance. But so is your example. If you count in the entire Aligulac, games between full time Korean pros against some Europeans is countsd the same way, Innovation vs soO is. This leads to a HUGE amount of games which were decided, before the game even started, because one player is just superior in every way. This again leads to an even win%, even if the top 100 Zerg lose to the top 100 Terran 100% of the time. And that would definitely mean that the game is imbalanced, even if Aligulac says something else. Swisslink is right. AntiRW's Top50 is the set of players that the game should be primarily balanced around. Unless one complains that diamond X loses to platinum Y. (and some race distributions are still good I guess)
Anyway considering changes. If there were some interesting changes like buffing Z - making game more diverse or letting units to be controlled better. I would go with it soon in off season. Good time for that, though we will have some silly maps. If there were no other good changes other than nerfing terran, I would wait longer.
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On October 14 2014 20:35 Tsubbi wrote: terran has just won every wcs region in dominating fashion and took most tournaments since the latest patch was released
be honest now, something is a bit off atm, its quite similiar to the protoss domination before and during wcs season 2 Wow, a race has a peak of performance after a major patch that revived it, what a surprise. Maybe we can wait the first 2015 season to determine if things go on or not?
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On October 14 2014 21:03 Tuczniak wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 18:20 Swisslink wrote:On October 14 2014 13:42 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 14 2014 10:42 antiRW wrote:On October 14 2014 10:11 r691175002 wrote: I'm looking at aligulac right now and a Zerg is the #1 ranked player in the word, followed by a Protoss. In fact, PvZ is the most imbalanced matchup right now at 45%. PvT is Protoss favored, and TvZ is only out by two percent.
If you think we need a patch right before Blizzcon, and after watching only a month of gameplay, you are going to be disappointed. Sorry, but your comment adds nothing. The current aligulac rates have been discussed 5-10 pages ago. There a reasons the current debate is focussed on more sophisticated metrics and individual or collection of games, and they are listed on the last 10 or so pages. If you take actual top level play into account, PvZ is slightly P favoured, PvT is slightly T favoured and TvZ is heavily T favoured. It adds a whole lot. Your metric is only relevant to the subset you demarcated. When discussing the totality of TvZ the whole of Aligulac is necessary. The arbitrary demarcation you placed simply allows us to compare a certain subset of players to each other, with the assumption that those subset of players are representative of the greater whole (or, more accurately, representative of the potential limits of the races as a whole) However, when discussing the balance of the matchup in a totality as opposed to a representative minority, Aligulac is definitely more accurate than your system. But your system is more relevant when asking how well player X does in metagame Y. Even during the BL/Infestor era, the ladder winrate was about even. Game was balanced all along? ... And yes, I know that's a bad example for balance. But so is your example. If you count in the entire Aligulac, games between full time Korean pros against some Europeans is countsd the same way, Innovation vs soO is. This leads to a HUGE amount of games which were decided, before the game even started, because one player is just superior in every way. This again leads to an even win%, even if the top 100 Zerg lose to the top 100 Terran 100% of the time. And that would definitely mean that the game is imbalanced, even if Aligulac says something else. Swisslink is right. AntiRW's Top50 is the set of players that the game should be primarily balanced around. Unless one complains that diamond X loses to platinum Y. (and some race distributions are still good I guess) Anyway considering changes. If there were some interesting changes like buffing Z - making game more diverse or letting units to be controlled better. I would go with it soon in off season. Good time for that, though we will have some silly maps. If there were no other good changes other than nerfing terran, I would wait longer.
What Swisslink writes is not entirely true. That only works if in those series, the inferior player actually does not take any game at all of the superior player. However in reality, Snute and Bunny may lose all series against top-Koreans, yet, their actual recorded stats show that they do indeed win some games (say 4-10 for Snute and 5-10 for Bunny). Which then again makes for a difference in the stats that does not balance out. In fact, if we assume equal skill of Snute and Bunny, this difference should on average be the difference in balance of the matchups. (in this example one could assume that TvZ is 56:44)
I think this effect may come into play if you have actual diamond or below players play against professionals. But even a top-Master player would eventually take a game of soO. It may just take 100 tries, however, even that 1% chance to win has to be modelled. Only not modelling this chance produces a convergence - which then does not go towards 50%, but to 50+half the imbalance. (so 55% in the case of a 60:40 balance)
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On October 14 2014 21:15 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 20:35 Tsubbi wrote: terran has just won every wcs region in dominating fashion and took most tournaments since the latest patch was released
be honest now, something is a bit off atm, its quite similiar to the protoss domination before and during wcs season 2 Wow, a race has a peak of performance after a major patch that revived it, what a surprise. Maybe we can wait the first 2015 season to determine if things go on or not? We can wait a few years if you want. I know all the struggling Terran ladder players want to keep the situation as it is for as long as possible. A vast majority of people in every balance thread of every game are just advantage seeking. Yet the truth is that since June Terran have won nearly all premier tournaments and we've had to endure more than half a dozen TvT finals. We've even had top 3 all Terran finishes. But let's wait untill 2016 before we determine that things are a bit off, just so we don't do any stupid mistakes, like buffing a race 3 times in a row for mysterious reasons.
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On October 14 2014 21:35 xyzz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 21:15 TheDwf wrote:On October 14 2014 20:35 Tsubbi wrote: terran has just won every wcs region in dominating fashion and took most tournaments since the latest patch was released
be honest now, something is a bit off atm, its quite similiar to the protoss domination before and during wcs season 2 Wow, a race has a peak of performance after a major patch that revived it, what a surprise. Maybe we can wait the first 2015 season to determine if things go on or not? We can wait a few years if you want. I know all the struggling Terran ladder players want to keep the situation as it is for as long as possible. A vast majority of people in every balance thread of every game are just advantage seeking. Yet the truth is that since June Terran have won nearly all premier tournaments and we've had to endure more than half a dozen TvT finals. We've even had top 3 all Terran finishes. But let's wait untill 2016 before we determine that things are a bit off, just so we don't do any stupid mistakes, like buffing a race 3 times in a row for mysterious reasons. June? omg. WHy did Blizzard patch a race 2 months after it has been winning everything 0.0!?!??!?!?!
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On October 14 2014 21:35 xyzz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 21:15 TheDwf wrote:On October 14 2014 20:35 Tsubbi wrote: terran has just won every wcs region in dominating fashion and took most tournaments since the latest patch was released
be honest now, something is a bit off atm, its quite similiar to the protoss domination before and during wcs season 2 Wow, a race has a peak of performance after a major patch that revived it, what a surprise. Maybe we can wait the first 2015 season to determine if things go on or not? We can wait a few years if you want. I know all the struggling Terran ladder players want to keep the situation as it is for as long as possible. A vast majority of people in every balance thread of every game are just advantage seeking. Yet the truth is that since June Terran have won nearly all premier tournaments and we've had to endure more than half a dozen TvT finals. We've even had top 3 all Terran finishes. But let's wait untill 2016 before we determine that things are a bit off, just so we don't do any stupid mistakes, like buffing a race 3 times in a row for mysterious reasons. Yeah, it's not like Blizzard has a history of overnerfing Terran because people like you have decided the race is intrinsically OP.
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On October 14 2014 21:21 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 21:03 Tuczniak wrote:On October 14 2014 18:20 Swisslink wrote:On October 14 2014 13:42 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 14 2014 10:42 antiRW wrote:On October 14 2014 10:11 r691175002 wrote: I'm looking at aligulac right now and a Zerg is the #1 ranked player in the word, followed by a Protoss. In fact, PvZ is the most imbalanced matchup right now at 45%. PvT is Protoss favored, and TvZ is only out by two percent.
If you think we need a patch right before Blizzcon, and after watching only a month of gameplay, you are going to be disappointed. Sorry, but your comment adds nothing. The current aligulac rates have been discussed 5-10 pages ago. There a reasons the current debate is focussed on more sophisticated metrics and individual or collection of games, and they are listed on the last 10 or so pages. If you take actual top level play into account, PvZ is slightly P favoured, PvT is slightly T favoured and TvZ is heavily T favoured. It adds a whole lot. Your metric is only relevant to the subset you demarcated. When discussing the totality of TvZ the whole of Aligulac is necessary. The arbitrary demarcation you placed simply allows us to compare a certain subset of players to each other, with the assumption that those subset of players are representative of the greater whole (or, more accurately, representative of the potential limits of the races as a whole) However, when discussing the balance of the matchup in a totality as opposed to a representative minority, Aligulac is definitely more accurate than your system. But your system is more relevant when asking how well player X does in metagame Y. Even during the BL/Infestor era, the ladder winrate was about even. Game was balanced all along? ... And yes, I know that's a bad example for balance. But so is your example. If you count in the entire Aligulac, games between full time Korean pros against some Europeans is countsd the same way, Innovation vs soO is. This leads to a HUGE amount of games which were decided, before the game even started, because one player is just superior in every way. This again leads to an even win%, even if the top 100 Zerg lose to the top 100 Terran 100% of the time. And that would definitely mean that the game is imbalanced, even if Aligulac says something else. Swisslink is right. AntiRW's Top50 is the set of players that the game should be primarily balanced around. Unless one complains that diamond X loses to platinum Y. (and some race distributions are still good I guess) Anyway considering changes. If there were some interesting changes like buffing Z - making game more diverse or letting units to be controlled better. I would go with it soon in off season. Good time for that, though we will have some silly maps. If there were no other good changes other than nerfing terran, I would wait longer. What Swisslink writes is not entirely true. That only works if in those series, the inferior player actually does not take any game at all of the superior player. However in reality, Snute and Bunny may lose all series against top-Koreans, yet, their actual recorded stats show that they do indeed win some games (say 4-10 for Snute and 5-10 for Bunny). Which then again makes for a difference in the stats that does not balance out. In fact, if we assume equal skill of Snute and Bunny, this difference should on average be the difference in balance of the matchups. (in this example one could assume that TvZ is 56:44) I think this effect may come into play if you have actual diamond or below players play against professionals. But even a top-Master player would eventually take a game of soO. It may just take 100 tries, however, even that 1% chance to win has to be modelled. Only not modelling this chance produces a convergence - which then does not go towards 50%, but to 50+half the imbalance. (so 55% in the case of a 60:40 balance) Still taking 100 and more players is pointless. The skill difference is too big and actual balance is different for lower skilled players.
PS: It doesn't matter if better player generally wins all the time or 55% of the time. It still works. It seemed to me you were arguing it's not 100% and you are right. But it doesn't matter.
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Northern Ireland23759 Posts
Haha xyzz really doesn't like Terran does he?
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On October 14 2014 22:06 Wombat_NI wrote: Haha xyzz really doesn't like Terran does he?
Probably a permanent scar for many players from the early 2010-2011 era. The style of Terran also doesn't really help in the sense that the Bio glass cannon is extremely volatile. Either the glass cannon survives and the opponent absolutely melts (making it look easy for Terran) or it dies on the spot to stuff like Storm or Tank fire (making it look like the Bio player is just bad).
Outside of insane multitasking drops I can imagine it is hard for some to say a Terran is actually playing really good. It's a lot easier calling a Terran bad for walking into a Storm than it is to call that same Terran good for splitting against the Storm and killing the HT.
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On October 14 2014 22:04 Tuczniak wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 21:21 Big J wrote:On October 14 2014 21:03 Tuczniak wrote:On October 14 2014 18:20 Swisslink wrote:On October 14 2014 13:42 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 14 2014 10:42 antiRW wrote:On October 14 2014 10:11 r691175002 wrote: I'm looking at aligulac right now and a Zerg is the #1 ranked player in the word, followed by a Protoss. In fact, PvZ is the most imbalanced matchup right now at 45%. PvT is Protoss favored, and TvZ is only out by two percent.
If you think we need a patch right before Blizzcon, and after watching only a month of gameplay, you are going to be disappointed. Sorry, but your comment adds nothing. The current aligulac rates have been discussed 5-10 pages ago. There a reasons the current debate is focussed on more sophisticated metrics and individual or collection of games, and they are listed on the last 10 or so pages. If you take actual top level play into account, PvZ is slightly P favoured, PvT is slightly T favoured and TvZ is heavily T favoured. It adds a whole lot. Your metric is only relevant to the subset you demarcated. When discussing the totality of TvZ the whole of Aligulac is necessary. The arbitrary demarcation you placed simply allows us to compare a certain subset of players to each other, with the assumption that those subset of players are representative of the greater whole (or, more accurately, representative of the potential limits of the races as a whole) However, when discussing the balance of the matchup in a totality as opposed to a representative minority, Aligulac is definitely more accurate than your system. But your system is more relevant when asking how well player X does in metagame Y. Even during the BL/Infestor era, the ladder winrate was about even. Game was balanced all along? ... And yes, I know that's a bad example for balance. But so is your example. If you count in the entire Aligulac, games between full time Korean pros against some Europeans is countsd the same way, Innovation vs soO is. This leads to a HUGE amount of games which were decided, before the game even started, because one player is just superior in every way. This again leads to an even win%, even if the top 100 Zerg lose to the top 100 Terran 100% of the time. And that would definitely mean that the game is imbalanced, even if Aligulac says something else. Swisslink is right. AntiRW's Top50 is the set of players that the game should be primarily balanced around. Unless one complains that diamond X loses to platinum Y. (and some race distributions are still good I guess) Anyway considering changes. If there were some interesting changes like buffing Z - making game more diverse or letting units to be controlled better. I would go with it soon in off season. Good time for that, though we will have some silly maps. If there were no other good changes other than nerfing terran, I would wait longer. What Swisslink writes is not entirely true. That only works if in those series, the inferior player actually does not take any game at all of the superior player. However in reality, Snute and Bunny may lose all series against top-Koreans, yet, their actual recorded stats show that they do indeed win some games (say 4-10 for Snute and 5-10 for Bunny). Which then again makes for a difference in the stats that does not balance out. In fact, if we assume equal skill of Snute and Bunny, this difference should on average be the difference in balance of the matchups. (in this example one could assume that TvZ is 56:44) I think this effect may come into play if you have actual diamond or below players play against professionals. But even a top-Master player would eventually take a game of soO. It may just take 100 tries, however, even that 1% chance to win has to be modelled. Only not modelling this chance produces a convergence - which then does not go towards 50%, but to 50+half the imbalance. (so 55% in the case of a 60:40 balance) Still taking 100 and more players is pointless. The skill difference is too big and actual balance is different for lower skilled players.
I agree, but that is mainly due to aligulac flaws and lack of better tools.
The way our tournament systems work (Qualifiers, Challenger Leagues, Seeding) there shouldn't be too many games of top10 vs bottom50 players to begin with. So if we would find a way to actually take the top100 players (instead of top100 aligulac points) the difference wouldn't be too much.
For the actual balance for lower league players I just disagree. There has never been a method to calculate this. Imo, this mainly falls into the Terran-circlejerk about hard race department. Which really only started around the time of BL/Infestor, so at a time where Terran was harder because Terran was underpowered (against Zerg) in general.
It doesn't matter if better player generally wins all the time or 55% of the time. It still works. It seemed to me you were arguing it's not 100% and you are right. But it doesn't matter.
Well, it works. But it doesn't converge to 50%, which is important. It converges at most to 50+half the imbalance. So if there is 60% winrate at the highest level it would still only get watered down to at most 55% by this effect (which is the 100:0 scenario), more likely if we have a true 100 best players, it would still be around 57,5%. So we are still far from an even win% .
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On October 14 2014 18:20 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 13:42 Thieving Magpie wrote:On October 14 2014 10:42 antiRW wrote:On October 14 2014 10:11 r691175002 wrote: I'm looking at aligulac right now and a Zerg is the #1 ranked player in the word, followed by a Protoss. In fact, PvZ is the most imbalanced matchup right now at 45%. PvT is Protoss favored, and TvZ is only out by two percent.
If you think we need a patch right before Blizzcon, and after watching only a month of gameplay, you are going to be disappointed. Sorry, but your comment adds nothing. The current aligulac rates have been discussed 5-10 pages ago. There a reasons the current debate is focussed on more sophisticated metrics and individual or collection of games, and they are listed on the last 10 or so pages. If you take actual top level play into account, PvZ is slightly P favoured, PvT is slightly T favoured and TvZ is heavily T favoured. It adds a whole lot. Your metric is only relevant to the subset you demarcated. When discussing the totality of TvZ the whole of Aligulac is necessary. The arbitrary demarcation you placed simply allows us to compare a certain subset of players to each other, with the assumption that those subset of players are representative of the greater whole (or, more accurately, representative of the potential limits of the races as a whole) However, when discussing the balance of the matchup in a totality as opposed to a representative minority, Aligulac is definitely more accurate than your system. But your system is more relevant when asking how well player X does in metagame Y. Even during the BL/Infestor era, the ladder winrate was about even. Game was balanced all along? ... And yes, I know that's a bad example for balance. But so is your example. If you count in the entire Aligulac, games between full time Korean pros against some Europeans is countsd the same way, Innovation vs soO is. This leads to a HUGE amount of games which were decided, before the game even started, because one player is just superior in every way. This again leads to an even win%, even if the top 100 Zerg lose to the top 100 Terran 100% of the time. And that would definitely mean that the game is imbalanced, even if Aligulac says something else.
No disagreements here. Just look a few pages back when I praised antiRW's efforts. I'm saying that they are different stats that show different things. It's a philosophical difference on how should things be judged.
For example. If the game is 50% for the totality, but 60/40 for the minority, then patching the top 50 players so they are 50/50 will make the totality 40/60
Now, if you don't ladder and only watch SC2 then that is okay. If you ony play SC2 and don't watch it won't be okay.
I am in favor of the representative minority argument--and hence why I argued earlier in the thread that "if Maru can consistently do well vs Protoss then terrans can't complain about imbalance"
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