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While we're looking at winrates, here's another Aligulac list:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/6zp9WrK.png)
Just looking at winrates, PvT is rather even, and so is PvZ but TvZ has gone down to the dumps again.
On the other hand, the population numbers are the worst ever for Terran. It looks like T has a constant of around 100 games every period, but with the added number of games (last period has 1799 games, this one 3866), only Z and P seem to have added more mirrors.
So there are 4.8x as many ZvZ as TvT, and 3.8x as many PvP as TvT. This also means that P has once again caught up with Z populations, last period it was 1.3 ZvZ for every 1 PvP, now it's 1.2.
On July 10 2014 20:15 Ghanburighan wrote:Here's the latest Aligulac list (114) with pretty new formatting. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/280eKxW.png) With regard to P, nothing seems to have changed. Just like the first half of June, P>T by a slight margin, P and Z are roughly even, and there are roughly the same number of PvP MU's in tournaments. Z did worse in this period, while it was at >55% against T last time, it's now even in winrates. More importantly, looking at populations, while there were 5x more ZvZ than TvT, and 2x more ZvZ than PvP, then now there are only roughly 3x more ZvZ than TvT, and a just over a fourth more ZvZ than PvPs. This suggests that Z is doing worse, and it's mainly doing worse against T (note that worse doesn't imply that they're doing bad, this is a comparison with the previous period). Looking more closely at the population numbers, there appear to have been fewer games, the total for 114 is 1835 and for 113 it was 2379. So for the previous 113 list Z MUs made up 72% of all MUs. P MUs made up 55% (note that the overlap is due to the fact that P plays Z...). T MUs made up 36% of all MUs. In this list, 114, Z MUs made up 65% of all MUs. P MUs made up 57%. T MUs made up 42% of all MUs. So Z is down 7%, P is up 2% and T is up 6%. (with rounding) The previous lists can be found below. Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 05:42 Ghanburighan wrote:Sorry for the delay, here's Aligulac 113.. The previous list(s) can be found at the end of this post. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Oc9x1bJ.png) Looking at the winrates, P has extended its advantage over T, P has also gained some ground back against Z, yet TvZ has strongly turned in Z favour once gain (it's as bad as it was before the hellbat patch in April). Population numbers are also worse. Previously there were 4x more ZvZ games than TvT games, now there are more than 5x. PvP's have not changed in number, so it's mostly just less terrans and more zergs getting further that's creating the problem. All in all, balance-wise this was a very depressing period. On June 12 2014 15:32 Ghanburighan wrote:Time to post the latest Aligulac list. The previous list can be found at the end of this post. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/pKEYuFe.png) Regarding winrates, PvT has fluctuated back from T having a slight advantage to P having a minuscule advantage. In PvZ, P has also improved although it hasn't caught up with Z. On the other hand, T has improved in the TvZ MU (110 had 45%, 111 had 47%) and its even now. In terms of populations measured in numbers of mirror MUs, there's virtually no change compared to the last list, the proportions are very close. This means that there is no repopulation of terrans according to these numbers and there are 4 times fewer TvTs than ZvZs. As T MUs have even winrates, there cannot really be a repopulation with these numbers. Furthermore, a word of caution, I'd say that this was one of the best periods for Terran in a long while, Taeja won Hsc 9 (where Z had a comparatively weaker list of players), Maru is tearing up Code S, and Innovation is kicking as in teamleagues and the Dragon cup. I don't think they contributed overly much to the final winrates (their games are still a small fraction of all the games), but taken together they did contribute significantly. If they don't keep their winning ways going, winrates can plunge below 50% again. And, their wins aren't helping repopulate in any way. On May 29 2014 02:45 Ghanburighan wrote:Uploading the latest Aligulac list. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/wem39XJ.png) Unfortunately there was a TvZ patch in the middle of the period, so those numbers could be anything now. But it looks like P is doing worse against Z in terms of winrate. But the population ratios haven't changed compared to the last list, though. It's still roughly 1/4 TvT, 2/4 PvP and 1/1 ZvZ.
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So in the past six months, Terran has gotten a buff to the Banshee, Hellbat, Widow Mine, and Siege Tank. Seriously Blizzard? Why don't you just remove Zerg from the game. We could barely keep up when Terrans had a 56% winrate pre-mine nerf and now you are buffing it again with the Hellbat and Siege Tank buffs. How do you expect us to be ahead in drones thus being even if we can't even saturate our thirds before both Toss and Terran do?
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On July 24 2014 17:00 Konranjyoutai wrote:
So in the past six months, Terran has gotten a buff to the Banshee, Hellbat, Widow Mine, and Siege Tank. Seriously Blizzard? Why don't you just remove Zerg from the game. We could barely keep up when Terrans had a 56% winrate pre-mine nerf and now you are buffing it again with the Hellbat and Siege Tank buffs. How do you expect us to be ahead in drones thus being even if we can't even saturate our thirds before both Toss and Terran do?
I recommand you to look at the post above yours.
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On July 24 2014 17:13 Faust852 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2014 17:00 Konranjyoutai wrote:
So in the past six months, Terran has gotten a buff to the Banshee, Hellbat, Widow Mine, and Siege Tank. Seriously Blizzard? Why don't you just remove Zerg from the game. We could barely keep up when Terrans had a 56% winrate pre-mine nerf and now you are buffing it again with the Hellbat and Siege Tank buffs. How do you expect us to be ahead in drones thus being even if we can't even saturate our thirds before both Toss and Terran do? I recommand you to look at the post above yours.
I'll never trust Aligulac and the ratings it comes too considering the games they use are highly controversial and include everything from online cups to foreign tournaments and premiere Code S tournaments all the way from the first WOL tournaments from the latest HOTS tournaments. It is a very poor way to judge the actual balance of the current meta game as it lumps in HOTS and WOL together as well as low level and high level tournaments.
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On July 24 2014 17:00 Konranjyoutai wrote:
So in the past six months, Terran has gotten a buff to the Banshee, Hellbat, Widow Mine, and Siege Tank. Seriously Blizzard? Why don't you just remove Zerg from the game. We could barely keep up when Terrans had a 56% winrate pre-mine nerf and now you are buffing it again with the Hellbat and Siege Tank buffs. How do you expect us to be ahead in drones thus being even if we can't even saturate our thirds before both Toss and Terran do?
I understand that you might feel frustrated with your experience on the ladder, but 1) you have to understand that ladder forced 50:50 means you're playing much better Terran players than you should be when there are so few Terrans period, and 2) balance changes are made for the very top tier of play, where Terrans have been struggling with Zerg for a very long time.
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On July 25 2014 14:26 pure.Wasted wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2014 17:00 Konranjyoutai wrote:
So in the past six months, Terran has gotten a buff to the Banshee, Hellbat, Widow Mine, and Siege Tank. Seriously Blizzard? Why don't you just remove Zerg from the game. We could barely keep up when Terrans had a 56% winrate pre-mine nerf and now you are buffing it again with the Hellbat and Siege Tank buffs. How do you expect us to be ahead in drones thus being even if we can't even saturate our thirds before both Toss and Terran do? I understand that you might feel frustrated with your experience on the ladder, but 1) you have to understand that ladder forced 50:50 means you're playing much better Terran players than you should be when there are so few Terrans period, and 2) balance changes are made for the very top tier of play, where Terrans have been struggling with Zerg for a very long time.
I don't feel frustrated and you need to understand that MMR equals a persons skill, not the amount of players on ladder. There could be one player in masters and when I played him, he would be the same skill as I am. Balance changes are also made for global play, not only the top tier of play. If they were only made for the top tier of play, you wouldn't see balance changes after waves of low level players complain across TL and Bnet forums. Also, Terrans have only been struggling with Zerg in the very end game and it has been a few months, not a very long time. Interestingly enough, this balance change does nothing to change the end game between ZvT and only further improves the Terrans mid game which has always been strong versus Zerg. Just look at the premiere tournaments for 2014, Protoss has won 11, Terran has won 4, Zerg has won 3. In all of Premiere Tournaments of HOTS, we have Zerg sitting at 11 wins, Protoss at 20 wins, and Terran at 18 wins.
So how exactly has Terran been struggling against Zerg for a very long time? If anything both Terran and Zerg has been struggling vs Protoss in 2014 and only Protoss. Based on the tournament wins I stated above, Zerg has been struggling since the release of HOTS to win anything at the top tier of play.
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Terran most definitely did not have a 56% win ratio pre-nerf. As a player who has laddered with both Terran and Zerg at the platinum level, I can definitely say that wiping bio armies with LBM is laughably easy with just an A move if the Terran only slightly splits. If he is hardcore splitting and pre-splitting then you have to split as Zerg, but not nearly as much. Once you get that massive muta flock its basically gg, although you can switch into ultras if you want I guess. Mech is a little trickier to fight against, but its basically just a solid number of sh, a few roaches for defense, and a shit ton of mutas to punish any mistake you can find (oh didnt leave two thors and missle turrets all around the main, bye production). I think I got up to like a 75-80% win ratio vs Terran last season (with like 70% ZvZ and 50% ZvP). Terran getting a late game buff just isnt going to happen in Hots, so they need a better mid game so when the late game comes they are not at such a disadvantage against Zerg.
The Hellbat timing can definitely be strong, but Zerg is the most adaptive race in the game, and its easy to see that those styles are already netting less and less success against top Zergs.
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On July 26 2014 12:10 Survivor61316 wrote:
Terran most definitely did not have a 56% win ratio pre-nerf. As a player who has laddered with both Terran and Zerg at the platinum level, I can definitely say that wiping bio armies with LBM is laughably easy with just an A move if the Terran only slightly splits. If he is hardcore splitting and pre-splitting then you have to split as Zerg, but not nearly as much. Once you get that massive muta flock its basically gg, although you can switch into ultras if you want I guess. Mech is a little trickier to fight against, but its basically just a solid number of sh, a few roaches for defense, and a shit ton of mutas to punish any mistake you can find (oh didnt leave two thors and missle turrets all around the main, bye production). I think I got up to like a 75-80% win ratio vs Terran last season (with like 70% ZvZ and 50% ZvP). Terran getting a late game buff just isnt going to happen in Hots, so they need a better mid game so when the late game comes they are not at such a disadvantage against Zerg.
The Hellbat timing can definitely be strong, but Zerg is the most adaptive race in the game, and its easy to see that those styles are already netting less and less success against top Zergs.
So you are saying that because you had a good winrate in platinum, Terran didn't have a 56% win ratio in premiere tournaments pre-nerf of the widow mine?
http://www.starcrafttrends.com
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On July 26 2014 13:27 Konranjyoutai wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2014 12:10 Survivor61316 wrote:
Terran most definitely did not have a 56% win ratio pre-nerf. As a player who has laddered with both Terran and Zerg at the platinum level, I can definitely say that wiping bio armies with LBM is laughably easy with just an A move if the Terran only slightly splits. If he is hardcore splitting and pre-splitting then you have to split as Zerg, but not nearly as much. Once you get that massive muta flock its basically gg, although you can switch into ultras if you want I guess. Mech is a little trickier to fight against, but its basically just a solid number of sh, a few roaches for defense, and a shit ton of mutas to punish any mistake you can find (oh didnt leave two thors and missle turrets all around the main, bye production). I think I got up to like a 75-80% win ratio vs Terran last season (with like 70% ZvZ and 50% ZvP). Terran getting a late game buff just isnt going to happen in Hots, so they need a better mid game so when the late game comes they are not at such a disadvantage against Zerg.
The Hellbat timing can definitely be strong, but Zerg is the most adaptive race in the game, and its easy to see that those styles are already netting less and less success against top Zergs. So you are saying that because you had a good winrate in platinum, Terran didn't have a 56% win ratio in premiere tournaments pre-nerf of the widow mine? http://www.starcrafttrends.com
Try to find something more outdated please.
The patch took place in November, terran had 56% in April.
Look at both graph and tell me terran was imbalanced pre mine nerf.
http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/
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On July 26 2014 13:27 Konranjyoutai wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2014 12:10 Survivor61316 wrote:
Terran most definitely did not have a 56% win ratio pre-nerf. As a player who has laddered with both Terran and Zerg at the platinum level, I can definitely say that wiping bio armies with LBM is laughably easy with just an A move if the Terran only slightly splits. If he is hardcore splitting and pre-splitting then you have to split as Zerg, but not nearly as much. Once you get that massive muta flock its basically gg, although you can switch into ultras if you want I guess. Mech is a little trickier to fight against, but its basically just a solid number of sh, a few roaches for defense, and a shit ton of mutas to punish any mistake you can find (oh didnt leave two thors and missle turrets all around the main, bye production). I think I got up to like a 75-80% win ratio vs Terran last season (with like 70% ZvZ and 50% ZvP). Terran getting a late game buff just isnt going to happen in Hots, so they need a better mid game so when the late game comes they are not at such a disadvantage against Zerg.
The Hellbat timing can definitely be strong, but Zerg is the most adaptive race in the game, and its easy to see that those styles are already netting less and less success against top Zergs. So you are saying that because you had a good winrate in platinum, Terran didn't have a 56% win ratio in premiere tournaments pre-nerf of the widow mine? http://www.starcrafttrends.com
Ummm nope, not what I'm saying at all lol.
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And seeing how that link does not cover the relevant time period, I'm going to just ignore it..
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On July 26 2014 13:37 Survivor61316 wrote:
And seeing how that link does not cover the relevant time period, I'm going to just ignore it..
They had the buffed widow mines all through HOTS in 2013 up until November of 2013. When they were at 56% they had the widow mine buff, so how is my statement any less correct? I don't understand how you can say the graph doesn't cover when they had the highest winrate with buffed mines. They also had buffed Hellbats and Zerg had slow Overseers. Now we are going into a patch where Terran once again has buffed Hellbats, Windowmines, with the added buffed Banshees and Siege Tanks.
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I was practicing some ghost vs ht micro in a unit tester and I realized that if you send the ghost and ht to feeback/snipe each other the ghost doesn't always get of a snipe before getting feedbacked. Now I am sure that this is well known etc.. but to me this was actually quite surprising because I always thought of the ghosts as a hard counter to ht in a pure ghost vs ht fight but this is not the case.
Now if you face a full protoss army with hts colossus archons etc you will wanna use emp anyway. But when a protoss sends out single hts for flanking, surprise storms or feeback this means that for the terran to be 100% sure to take out the ht without taking any dmg he has to land 2 PERFECT emps (to utilize the extra radius range) and then use snipe (once).
A lot of people (mostly terrans and myself) thinks late game tvp is really hard for the terran because of the reinforcement and harassment ability provided by warpgate. So is it not fair to make it a little easier for the terran to set up the big fighs by giving terran the advantage in these small pre big fight skirmishes/micro-battles by increasing the range of snipe?
I am thinking a ghost academy upgrade +1 or +2 range.
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On July 26 2014 21:26 Gullis wrote:I was practicing some ghost vs ht micro in a unit tester and I realized that if you send the ghost and ht to feeback/snipe each other the ghost doesn't always get of a snipe before getting feedbacked. Now I am sure that this is well known etc.. but to me this was actually quite surprising because I always thought of the ghosts as a hard counter to ht in a pure ghost vs ht fight but this is not the case. Now if you face a full protoss army with hts colossus archons etc you will wanna use emp anyway. But when a protoss sends out single hts for flanking, surprise storms or feeback this means that for the terran to be 100% sure to take out the ht without taking any dmg he has to land 2 PERFECT emps (to utilize the extra radius range) and then use snipe (once). A lot of people (mostly terrans and myself) thinks late game tvp is really hard for the terran because of the reinforcement and harassment ability provided by warpgate. So is it not fair to make it a little easier for the terran to set up the big fighs by giving terran the advantage in these small pre big fight skirmishes/micro-battles by increasing the range of snipe? I am thinking a ghost academy upgrade +1 or +2 range.
Or just making the range longer to begin with? Getting ghost is pretty rare already, and as every other upgradeable attribute (siege mode, hellbat transfer, ghost energy, hallucination..) is removed, why not?
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On July 26 2014 22:04 neptunusfisk wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2014 21:26 Gullis wrote:I was practicing some ghost vs ht micro in a unit tester and I realized that if you send the ghost and ht to feeback/snipe each other the ghost doesn't always get of a snipe before getting feedbacked. Now I am sure that this is well known etc.. but to me this was actually quite surprising because I always thought of the ghosts as a hard counter to ht in a pure ghost vs ht fight but this is not the case. Now if you face a full protoss army with hts colossus archons etc you will wanna use emp anyway. But when a protoss sends out single hts for flanking, surprise storms or feeback this means that for the terran to be 100% sure to take out the ht without taking any dmg he has to land 2 PERFECT emps (to utilize the extra radius range) and then use snipe (once). A lot of people (mostly terrans and myself) thinks late game tvp is really hard for the terran because of the reinforcement and harassment ability provided by warpgate. So is it not fair to make it a little easier for the terran to set up the big fighs by giving terran the advantage in these small pre big fight skirmishes/micro-battles by increasing the range of snipe? I am thinking a ghost academy upgrade +1 or +2 range. Or just making the range longer to begin with? Getting ghost is pretty rare already, and as every other upgradeable attribute (siege mode, hellbat transfer, ghost energy, hallucination..) is removed, why not?
Well partly because a lot terrans uppgrades has been removed () and partly because I think this way it wont affect the mid game to much.
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On July 26 2014 21:15 Konranjyoutai wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2014 13:37 Survivor61316 wrote:
And seeing how that link does not cover the relevant time period, I'm going to just ignore it.. They had the buffed widow mines all through HOTS in 2013 up until November of 2013. When they were at 56% they had the widow mine buff, so how is my statement any less correct? I don't understand how you can say the graph doesn't cover when they had the highest winrate with buffed mines. They also had buffed Hellbats and Zerg had slow Overseers. Now we are going into a patch where Terran once again has buffed Hellbats, Windowmines, with the added buffed Banshees and Siege Tanks.
The widow mine was not buffed all through 2013, and was not touced for months before its nerf. Also in the months before the mine nerf, TvZ had balanced out to 50% (Zerg even was at 52% in september or october). So no, that graph is not relevant at all.
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The low number of TvTs lately tell the whole story IMO. Terrans simply dont qualify for high level tournaments. New talents have a much better chance of succeeding with Z or P, so the Terrans are simply not there!
IMO in sc2, the balance has to be slightly off, but in a rotational way, for example like this P>T>Z>P, but preferably within 2%.
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In fact looking back at the statistics, the last wm change before the nerf was in February 2013, which was still during the beta. The widow mine was not buffed at all after the release of Hots and before the nerf, so I'm not sure what the hell youre talking about. TvZ did reach 56% at one point, no one is denying that, but that was months before the nerf happened. And in the months before it did take place, TvZ had balanced out to 50%. So in other words, the mine was not too strong for zergs to deal with before the patch after they figured out how to do so.
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The big terran dropout of code S was already ongoing before the mine nerf, but it seems that it + blink meta was the nail in the coffin.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/e9OBHGG.png)
Btw, notice how the protoss count is comparable to the GOMTvT months. This is truly the GOMexPvP era!
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/IrAlNKU.png)
