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Introduction:
The only variables to analysis a ladder is wins or ladder rank and the only variables available at sc2ranks.com are precisely those two plus win the related win ratio. This analysis is only a snap shot of the current state and it would be preferable to continue with this analysis every month, before a patch or pre patch. The analysis is done under the current patch and not the anticipated 1.3.3 patch. I choose the Korean ladder since it is considered as the most competitive ladder in the world. sCfOu, PoltPrime and IMNesTea are some the players included in the ladder analysis.
Method:
The grandmaster league represents the 200 best ladder players and includes some of the best LAN players as well. The top 200 doesn't represent the very best and has an uneven composition between the races. Therefore I created an even list of the top 10 players for each race using the win ratio. I believe that the win ratio represents the best measure of ladder success. Number of games won depends on ladder time and the win ratio is a traditional method. The results (average win ratio, average ladder rank and average win ratio rank ) will be shown for each player separately and collectively for each race.
The top 10 players from each race results in a data set of only 30 players but those 30 players have certainly played over 10000 games. Battle.net tries to force a win ratio to 50% and only 67 players among the top 100 in Korea are skilled enough to beat the MMR with a win ratio over 55%. Blizzard tolerance a 45-55% win ratio at a aggregate level and I will therefore use that definition at a individual level. Those restrictions leaves out many players and as the race composition is uneven, I will have to settle for some exceptions.
Background:
The top 100 consists of 48 terrans, 31 protosses, 20 zergs and 1 random.
Result:
If the picture don't show up, use this link: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/koreanladderysis9may.jpg
Notes: wr rank = win ratio rank, rank = ladder rank
Of the Top 100 ladder players top 10 consists of Terrans! Quite a remarkable feat. Protoss and Zerg are more spread out. The results is easily interpreted and I will not describe it any further.
Conclusions:
Korean Terrans have in general an edge over their opponents. Protoss have only an edge over zerg and zerg have no edge over any race. A higher win ratio in my opinion suggests that the player is very skilled and that the race is very solid. The possible conclusion might not be very indicative of anything but if they are indicative of something it may be that terran > protoss > zerg, at least in the korean ladder.
TL;DR Has the analysis any merit or is it a personal waste of time?
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I'm not very impressed by this analysis. It would be cool if someone would actually gather game data from ladder. Like somehow ninja what IMMvP's TvZ, TvP, and TvT win %s are from match history and maybe some data on who these players actually lose to, what maps, etc it could be really cool. I know this data isn't available from the web version of match history, but maybe it's possible to build it from syncing up the wins / losses from players and the times the games finished.
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This has been done atleast 5 times. And every agrees that the sample size is too small. Also, stop complaining about balance. It degenerates the community into a bunch of whiners. You have to take into consideration the effect of your post before you post it. Do you WANT people to go "ZOMG Terran OP Zerg UP"?? If that was your goal, people are already doing that.
An to answer your question: yea, waste of time.
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As you play more games, your win ratio will level out. You have to take into account the number of games played.
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It's ladder that map makes terran strong in korea. Also top Koreans have to stick to their race and play hard to beat any imbalance.
If you want to check the imbalance between pros, check GSL
If you want to check the imbalance between normal players, check NA ladder
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On May 10 2011 02:08 MoreFaSho wrote:
I'm not very impressed by this analysis. It would be cool if someone would actually gather game data from ladder. Like somehow ninja what IMMvP's TvZ, TvP, and TvT win %s are from match history and maybe some data on who these players actually lose to, what maps, etc it could be really cool. I know this data isn't available from the web version of match history, but maybe it's possible to build it from syncing up the wins / losses from players and the times the games finished.
This. It would be nice if Blizzard made some of this stuff more readily available. Everyone knows we'd love to analyze it!
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On May 10 2011 02:38 DrShaw wrote:Show nested quote +On May 10 2011 02:08 MoreFaSho wrote:
I'm not very impressed by this analysis. It would be cool if someone would actually gather game data from ladder. Like somehow ninja what IMMvP's TvZ, TvP, and TvT win %s are from match history and maybe some data on who these players actually lose to, what maps, etc it could be really cool. I know this data isn't available from the web version of match history, but maybe it's possible to build it from syncing up the wins / losses from players and the times the games finished. This. It would be nice if Blizzard made some of this stuff more readily available. Everyone knows we'd love to analyze it!
Didn't they used to do that?
Everybody complained about how it was meaningless anyways >_<
I'm starting to hate any balance discussion, feels like politics most of the time
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United States17042 Posts
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maybe u should take the overall race distribution into ur calculation and look if it reflects the top 100 distribution and then maybe u can talk about a little balance issue
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I think analysis of the GM league is flawed as it is a locked group. therefore there is an extremely low rate of rotation.
I would say to include a larger sample and use the top of Korea master league in addition to better your results.
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Am I reading that incorrectly or are the top 10 people in the korean ladder sorted by win/loss ratio ALL terran players?
lol...
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waste of time
when you think that there is the possibility that a race has more bad players(zerg) and there is a race (terran) that has more good players your statistic is sayin exactly nothing
you can not balance a game from statistics thats bullshit
you must look @the game not some rnd weekly numbers thats stupid
i hope blizz doesnt do that
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You also have to take into account that ladder uses maps with close position (metalopolis ,shattered temple) or terribly imbalanced (Delta Quadrant comes to mind) , so this does not represent balance in tournament play ( i know it's kind of obvious , but in my opinion balance is mostly an issue for high level play)
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Well im sure alot of ladder games in korea (aswell as everwhere else) is cheese games. Who is the strongest race vs cheese? I'd say T. They don't have a coinflip matchup such as PvP and so some regard ZvZ. That makes a huge differance.
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you can not balance a game from statistics thats bullshit
you must look @the game not some rnd weekly numbers thats stupid
i hope blizz doesnt do that
I'm sure they[Blizzard] don't just balance the game around statistics. But they do site statistics every time they get asked about balance. It may just be their go to statement. But it does seem like they put allot of weight on statistics as much as they talk about them in interviews.
So yes and no.
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Two confounding factors: ladder maps might favor Terran, and there may simply be more Terran players.
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Despite what everybody is saying cool post and thanks for taking the time out of your day to write it =D
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TL;DR Has the analysis any merit or is it a personal waste of time?
It's not a waste of time. It's good data. It doesn't have to be used to draw some sort of conclusion to justify it's self. Just being Data alone is good enough.
That said I don't understand all of it.
Under win ratio I assume the first number is wins and second number is losses.
So for the first Terran. 77,89. This must not be true though because..
Now down to the average box. 71 is the average wins for all 10 Terrans. But how is 138 the average losses?
Also why would the Terran number 4 with a 73,2 win ratio and a wr rank of 4 not have a higher wr rank then Terran number 1 with a win ratio of 77,89 and a wr rank of 1.
I'm not reading these number correctly. Someone explain it to me.
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^ I believe it's 77,89% 
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^ I believe it's 77,89%
ok ok. That makes sense. But that means the average win % for Terran is 138%. I'm no math guy but I guess that could be made to make sense somehow. But it also means that the average win % for Toss is 587%. Even though they have an overall lower Win Ratio Rank than Terran.
I'm still not getting it.
I also don't understand why the Average for Rank and Win Ratio Rank have 2 numbers even though there is only 1 number in the column.
I feel like I'm the only kid in class that doesn't get it.
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I'm surprised by these numbers. I would have thought that the recent stim nerf would have taken some time for Terrans to adjust to. Kind of reassuring, maybe the warp gate nerf won't be a big deal after all.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/koreanladderysis9may.jpg/)
![[image loading]](http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/2558/koreanladderysis9may.jpg)
