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I did a similar thing in beta phase 2 when the new battle.net website first became available, and as far as I know there hasn't been a similar statistic made since.
What I did:
The map, game type and win/loss of everyone's last 25 games is shown on their battle.net profile website. Courtesy of www.sc2ranks.com (thanks!), I mined through this match history of all EU Diamond players and gathered the win/loss for each 1v1 game (so only solo ladder is included, no custom games). Note that using this method, or any other I know, it's not possible to calculate specific matchup win percentages, as the opponent or their race is not shown. Also note that the system is not zero-sum (that is, the numbers don't "add up to 50%"), as 1) this includes games played by Diamond players against lower league players 2) this only includes everyone's last 0-25 1v1 matches (depending what types of games they have played lately).
I separately included the stats for players ranked 1-5000 on EU, and all EU Diamond players. Note that the former might not be statistically significant for all cases, and for random players neither is probably very statistically significant. I've highlighted some of the results that struck me as interesting, either because the result differs from my understanding of the "mainstream opinion", or because the result is even better/worse than people might think (like the Zerg highlights). Come into your own conclusions! Hope the other statistics nuts around get their daily fix on this 
All EU Diamond players with mirror match bias removed:
+ Show Spoiler +Terran on Lost Temple : 2813/4934 = 57.01%
Terran on Metalopolis : 2496/4501 = 55.45%
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 1713/3117 = 54.95%
Terran on Xel'Naga Caverns : 2606/4791 = 54.39%
Terran on Steppes of War : 2767/5134 = 53.89%
Terran on Desert Oasis : 1349/2514 = 53.65%
Terran on Delta Quadrant : 1686/3156 = 53.42%
Terran on Scrap Station : 1893/3637 = 52.04%
Terran on Blistering Sands : 2088/4175 = 50.01%
Zerg on Scrap Station : 2341/4097 = 57.13%
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 1359/2479 = 54.82%
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 2448/4476 = 54.69%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 2437/4573 = 53.29%
Zerg on Lost Temple : 2341/4444 = 52.67%
Zerg on Xel'Naga Caverns : 2366/4559 = 51.89%
Zerg on Steppes of War : 2336/4616 = 50.60%
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 1235/2443 = 50.55%
Zerg on Delta Quadrant : 1424/2938 = 48.46%
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 1855/3415 = 54.31%
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 3337/6238 = 53.49%
Protoss on Xel'Naga Caverns : 3463/6512 = 53.17%
Protoss on Steppes of War : 3718/7000 = 53.11%
Protoss on Delta Quadrant : 2159/4071 = 53.03%
Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 2150/4067 = 52.86%
Protoss on Metalopolis : 3257/6164 = 52.83%
Protoss on Lost Temple : 3398/6608 = 51.42%
Protoss on Scrap Station : 2636/5128 = 51.40%
Stats with bias included
+ Show Spoiler +5000 best ranked EU Diamond players: + Show Spoiler +Terran on Lost Temple : 1596/2849 = 56.01 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 1476/2638 = 55.95 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 1571/2830 = 55.51 %
Terran on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1401/2620 = 53.47 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 596/1116 = 53.40 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 1037/1943 = 53.37 %
Terran on Delta Quadrant : 994/1864 = 53.32 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 1144/2175 = 52.59 %
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 902/1715 = 52.59 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 1327/2348 = 56.51 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 1344/2441 = 55.05 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 635/1177 = 53.95 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 1452/2702 = 53.73 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 1380/2580 = 53.48 %
Zerg on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1366/2593 = 52.68 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 1295/2494 = 51.92 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 682/1320 = 51.66 %
Zerg on Delta Quadrant : 824/1623 = 50.77 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 773/1386 = 55.77 %
Protoss on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1740/3153 = 55.18 %
Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 1118/2041 = 54.77 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 1884/3504 = 53.76 %
Protoss on Delta Quadrant : 1210/2251 = 53.75 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 1674/3138 = 53.34 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 1804/3386 = 53.27 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 1870/3568 = 52.41 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 1250/2458 = 50.85 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 309/546 = 56.59 %
Random on Steppes of War : 300/542 = 55.35 %
Random on Scrap Station : 255/462 = 55.19 %
Random on Delta Quadrant : 215/390 = 55.12 %
Random on Kulas Ravine : 194/352 = 55.11 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 144/263 = 54.75 %
Random on Xel'Naga Caverns : 270/512 = 52.73 %
Random on Metalopolis : 268/518 = 51.73 %
Random on Lost Temple : 256/529 = 48.39 % : + Show Spoiler +Terran on Lost Temple : 4325/7959 = 54.34 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 3876/7261 = 53.38 %
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 2668/5028 = 53.06 %
Terran on Xel'Naga Caverns : 4074/7728 = 52.71 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 4341/8282 = 52.41 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 2120/4056 = 52.26 %
Terran on Delta Quadrant : 2653/5091 = 52.11 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 3008/5867 = 51.26 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 3367/6734 = 50.0 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 3350/6116 = 54.77 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 1970/3701 = 53.22 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 3551/6682 = 53.14 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 3563/6826 = 52.19 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 3436/6634 = 51.79 %
Zerg on Xel'Naga Caverns : 3489/6805 = 51.27 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 3473/6891 = 50.39 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 1837/3647 = 50.37 %
Zerg on Delta Quadrant : 2148/4386 = 48.97 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 2553/4811 = 53.06 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 4611/8786 = 52.48 %
Protoss on Xel'Naga Caverns : 4793/9173 = 52.25 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 5148/9860 = 52.21 %
Protoss on Delta Quadrant : 2991/5735 = 52.15 %
Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 2981/5729 = 52.03 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 4516/8682 = 52.01 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 4748/9308 = 51.01 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 3683/7223 = 50.98 %
Random on Steppes of War : 1107/2073 = 53.40 %
Random on Delta Quadrant : 736/1388 = 53.02 %
Random on Scrap Station : 952/1798 = 52.94 %
Random on Kulas Ravine : 698/1343 = 51.97 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 1032/2006 = 51.45 %
Random on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1018/1981 = 51.38 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 601/1177 = 51.06 %
Random on Metalopolis : 969/1916 = 50.57 %
Random on Lost Temple : 1017/2020 = 50.34 %
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Hm.... If we are having so much trouble gathering data on SC2, what of Blizzard? 
Nice work Silu.
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I knew Delta Quadrant was a piece of shit map, but its funny to see that it is even THAT bad
Kulas stats are quite weird, i agree with you highlighting that. I guess the imbaness is even worse in TvP then it is in ZvX, or all Zergs just cheese on that map since they hate it, i dont know
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A very large number of zergs have Kulas X'd out. If you pick zerg and don't X out kulas you will get a ton of zvt on it because practically none of the terrans X it out.
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If I read this correctly, most wins go to random players. I love that. Statistic agrees with me, blistering sand is the worst map for terran (same percentage as kulas ravine). Another interesting fact : No one likes to play desert oasis.
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Why is it that Protoss has such good stats on Desert Oasis? There's no way to fast expand on it as P and the mineral line is very vulnerable to siege tanks. That's the only statistic that's really odd to me.
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On September 03 2010 20:36 Tufas wrote:
If I read this correctly, most wins go to random players. I love that. Statistic agrees with me, blistering sand is the worst map for terran (same percentage as kulas ravine). Another interesting fact : No one likes to play desert oasis.
i actualy find it very very weird that ppl bash desert oasis while no one mentions scrap station.
Scrap station is a piece of shit map 10x worse than desert oasis, anyone not playing zerg should turn it off by default
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On September 03 2010 20:40 Mandalor wrote:
Why is it that Protoss has such good stats on Desert Oasis? There's no way to fast expand on it as P and the mineral line is very vulnerable to siege tanks. That's the only statistic that's really odd to me.
Fast void ray ?
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Protoss is very very strong on 1 base and DO allows for very powerful VR play. Thats my thoughts on in at least.
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On September 03 2010 20:40 Mandalor wrote:
Why is it that Protoss has such good stats on Desert Oasis? There's no way to fast expand on it as P and the mineral line is very vulnerable to siege tanks. That's the only statistic that's really odd to me.
Void Rays.
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4 gate nullifies the huge rush distance + 1 basing + everyone who doesn't probably thumbs it down
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On September 03 2010 19:37 Silu wrote:I did a similar thing in beta phase 2 when the new battle.net website first became available, and as far as I know there hasn't been a similar statistic made since. What I did: The map, game type and win/loss of everyone's last 25 games is shown on their battle.net profile website. Courtesy of www.sc2ranks.com (thanks!), I mined through this match history of all EU Diamond players and gathered the win/loss for each 1v1 game (so only solo ladder is included, no custom games). Note that using this method, or any other I know, it's not possible to calculate specific matchup win percentages, as the opponent or their race is not shown. Also note that the system is not zero-sum (that is, the numbers don't "add up to 50%"), as 1) this includes games played by Diamond players against lower league players 2) this only includes everyone's last 0-25 1v1 matches (depending what types of games they have played lately). I separately included the stats for players ranked 1-5000 on EU, and all EU Diamond players. Note that the former might not be statistically significant for all cases, and for random players neither is probably very statistically significant. I've highlighted some of the results that struck me as interesting, either because the result differs from my understanding of the "mainstream opinion", or because the result is even better/worse than people might think (like the Zerg highlights). Come into your own conclusions! Hope the other statistics nuts around get their daily fix on this 5000 best ranked EU Diamond players: + Show Spoiler +Terran on Lost Temple : 1596/2849 = 56.01 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 1476/2638 = 55.95 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 1571/2830 = 55.51 %
Terran on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1401/2620 = 53.47 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 596/1116 = 53.40 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 1037/1943 = 53.37 %
Terran on Delta Quadrant : 994/1864 = 53.32 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 1144/2175 = 52.59 %
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 902/1715 = 52.59 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 1327/2348 = 56.51 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 1344/2441 = 55.05 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 635/1177 = 53.95 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 1452/2702 = 53.73 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 1380/2580 = 53.48 %
Zerg on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1366/2593 = 52.68 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 1295/2494 = 51.92 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 682/1320 = 51.66 %
Zerg on Delta Quadrant : 824/1623 = 50.77 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 773/1386 = 55.77 %
Protoss on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1740/3153 = 55.18 %
Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 1118/2041 = 54.77 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 1884/3504 = 53.76 %
Protoss on Delta Quadrant : 1210/2251 = 53.75 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 1674/3138 = 53.34 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 1804/3386 = 53.27 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 1870/3568 = 52.41 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 1250/2458 = 50.85 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 309/546 = 56.59 %
Random on Steppes of War : 300/542 = 55.35 %
Random on Scrap Station : 255/462 = 55.19 %
Random on Delta Quadrant : 215/390 = 55.12 %
Random on Kulas Ravine : 194/352 = 55.11 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 144/263 = 54.75 %
Random on Xel'Naga Caverns : 270/512 = 52.73 %
Random on Metalopolis : 268/518 = 51.73 %
Random on Lost Temple : 256/529 = 48.39 % : + Show Spoiler +Terran on Lost Temple : 4325/7959 = 54.34 %
Terran on Metalopolis : 3876/7261 = 53.38 %
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 2668/5028 = 53.06 %
Terran on Xel'Naga Caverns : 4074/7728 = 52.71 %
Terran on Steppes of War : 4341/8282 = 52.41 %
Terran on Desert Oasis : 2120/4056 = 52.26 %
Terran on Delta Quadrant : 2653/5091 = 52.11 %
Terran on Scrap Station : 3008/5867 = 51.26 %
Terran on Blistering Sands : 3367/6734 = 50.0 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 3350/6116 = 54.77 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 1970/3701 = 53.22 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 3551/6682 = 53.14 %
Zerg on Metalopolis : 3563/6826 = 52.19 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 3436/6634 = 51.79 %
Zerg on Xel'Naga Caverns : 3489/6805 = 51.27 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 3473/6891 = 50.39 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 1837/3647 = 50.37 %
Zerg on Delta Quadrant : 2148/4386 = 48.97 %
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 2553/4811 = 53.06 %
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 4611/8786 = 52.48 %
Protoss on Xel'Naga Caverns : 4793/9173 = 52.25 %
Protoss on Steppes of War : 5148/9860 = 52.21 %
Protoss on Delta Quadrant : 2991/5735 = 52.15 %
Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 2981/5729 = 52.03 %
Protoss on Metalopolis : 4516/8682 = 52.01 %
Protoss on Lost Temple : 4748/9308 = 51.01 %
Protoss on Scrap Station : 3683/7223 = 50.98 %
Random on Steppes of War : 1107/2073 = 53.40 %
Random on Delta Quadrant : 736/1388 = 53.02 %
Random on Scrap Station : 952/1798 = 52.94 %
Random on Kulas Ravine : 698/1343 = 51.97 %
Random on Blistering Sands : 1032/2006 = 51.45 %
Random on Xel'Naga Caverns : 1018/1981 = 51.38 %
Random on Desert Oasis : 601/1177 = 51.06 %
Random on Metalopolis : 969/1916 = 50.57 %
Random on Lost Temple : 1017/2020 = 50.34 %
If you're in Euro you can just add each character to your friend list in-game and see their entire match history. You'll get much more information than the pathetic blizzard website.
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On September 03 2010 20:50 Dionyseus wrote:
If you're in Euro you can just add each character to your friend list in-game and see their entire match history. You'll get much more information than the pathetic blizzard website.
Sure, if I want to handle 19600 player match histories by hand. If you know how to do that automatically, do share. Other than making some weirdo macro that uses extensive screencapping and OCR to parse the data.
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On September 03 2010 20:40 Mandalor wrote:
Why is it that Protoss has such good stats on Desert Oasis? There's no way to fast expand on it as P and the mineral line is very vulnerable to siege tanks. That's the only statistic that's really odd to me.
Because Protoss is strongest with 1 base.
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Stalker mobility might also be a factor imo.
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Glad I could be a part of this  Kulas Ravine is really interesting, never expected that.
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On September 03 2010 21:10 Pixel. wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2010 20:40 Mandalor wrote:
Why is it that Protoss has such good stats on Desert Oasis? There's no way to fast expand on it as P and the mineral line is very vulnerable to siege tanks. That's the only statistic that's really odd to me. Because Protoss is strongest with 1 base.
Terran is strongest on one base because of mules. Protoss are just very very used to one basing.
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I disagree, Terran is definitely the strongest off one base. But the short air distance means void rays are pretty tough to stop. Especially against zerg or other protoss.
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Without knowing what race the opponent was the % are a bit distorted. Given that there are more Terrans than the others more than 1/3 of the games in the Terran section will be mirror matches where as less than 1/3 of the zergs are.
Also games played against a race that is strong on this map will be biased against, whilst games played against races that are weak on the map will be biased towards the current race.
These two anomalies make it very hard to come to any conclusions about map balance when the different % are so close to each other.
Perhaps taking the top 1000 of each race and looking at a fixed number of their games would give you a better 'source' pool, but you still have the problem that their opponents are of unevenly distributed race compositions..
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This didn't suprise me at all .p
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On September 03 2010 21:45 MrCeeJ wrote:
Without knowing what race the opponent was the % are a bit distorted. Given that there are more Terrans than the others more than 1/3 of the games in the Terran section will be mirror matches where as less than 1/3 of the zergs are.
Also games played against a race that is strong on this map will be biased against, whilst games played against races that are weak on the map will be biased towards the current race.
These two anomalies make it very hard to come to any conclusions about map balance when the different % are so close to each other.
If you look at the numbers being as relative and not absolute, neither of these matter that much. The idea is to gauge what the maps are like when compared to each other for one race. You're correct that 56% for Zerg doesn't quite mean the same as 56% for Terran (the latter being a bigger sign of "imba" in this case, since they still manage a big win percentage even with relatively more mirror matches included in it). However the numbers are very comparable among a single race.
Perhaps taking the top 1000 of each race and looking at a fixed number of their games would give you a better 'source' pool, but you still have the problem that their opponents are of unevenly distributed race compositions..
This would not change anything at all. More samples is better, it doesn't matter that some races have more samples than others. It would be different if I could pick actual GAMES with known matchups (better yet, games among the top players, not against lower ones), not just half-games knowing only one side (which among other things leads to some games being counted "twice", but for the purpose of the evaluation this doesn't matter either).
For the record, the percentages are as follows in EU Diamond:
35.0% Protoss
30.2% Terran
25.7% Zerg
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A lot of protoss can do effective cheese on DO too. A lot of place to hide a proxy 2 gate etc.
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On September 03 2010 20:34 StupidFatHobbit wrote:
A very large number of zergs have Kulas X'd out. If you pick zerg and don't X out kulas you will get a ton of zvt on it because practically none of the terrans X it out.
It depends how biased opposing terrans are. If they want to take fair maps out (blistering, meta) to only have T favoring maps in pool, then sure you'll get tons of kulas. Against non-nerd terrans you should get pretty fair share of step LT meta blistering DQ xnc. I see no fair point for terrans to thumb down any of those. DO is crap, and I can understand some diss scrap. It's beyond me why so many think steppes is fine and scrap isn't though. Steppes just encourages all sort of impulsive pushes with zero reacting time and thus is pretty shitty map for macroing.
Seems DQ is pretty much thumbed down by z too. Might join the anti-kulas/DO/DQ movement myself, those maps just are bad.
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Either the results of this aren't "statistically significant" (56%>53%) or I've been making some poor assumptions. Apparently Terran > Zerg on 4 player maps? This is news to me.
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Is down voting maps you don't like common? I always play with all the maps on even though I really hate some of them. I like to have replays, win or loose, on maps I don't like since I feel like I learn more from them somehow.
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These statistics aren't even good to analyze the maps. It should be possible to remove mirror matchups, because they put all win rates closer to 50% than they really are. Expect most win rates to be much further from 50% than these data gives the impression of, specially for protoss and terran, where the chance of mirror matchup is higher due to more people playing them.
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I did some quick stats on that data, and most of the differences aren't statistically significant, if you just compare within races (using the average win rate for each race). From that it seems:
For terrans, your win rate will be highest if you pick lost temple and maybe metalopolis. Stay away from blistering sands and probably scrap station as well. This seems to be less important for the top 5000 than for the general diamond population.
For zerg, pick scrap station and blistering sands, avoid delta quadrant like the pague, and also steppes of war and probably kulas ravine as well. Again, things seem more even for the top 5k.
For protoss if you avoid any maps, let them be scrap station and maybe lost temple.
Random players, just keep doing what you do.
I also looked to see how win rate correlated with map choice. You'd expect to see that players pick maps that help their races out. This is certainly true for terran and a bit for zerg, and especially among the top 5k, where there are strong positive relationships. However, protoss of both experience levels are doing a bad job of picking maps! For them, performance is negatively correlated with map preference. So protoss players, think twice about which maps you vote down! Protoss have been playing a lot of games on maps they aren't good at. Protoss players, stop voting down DO and stop playing scrap station and lost temple!
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Interesting stat for Protoss on Blistering Sands. People have been calling it toss' backyard recently, but for the very top players, it doesn't seem to be all that great for toss. But for diamond as a whole, its one of their best maps.
I assume the very best are just capable of defending against a 4 warpgate push that abuses the destructible rocks?
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What your data is telling me is that an average of 50% winrate for all matchups on every map. Blizzard probably has the same data and is probably why we're not seeing such drastic balance changes. Atleast, on EU server.
Thanks for the time and effort for that.
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Call me ignorant, but I'm of the party that believes that if theory can deem a map imbalanced without a doubt, the statistics take second banana. Terran obviously has some racial advantages on Kulas, but that doesn't mean that they've figured out how to abuse it (especially across all Diamond players). To trust the statistics over theory in this situation would be to assume that everyone plays perfectly and takes advantage of every advantage. I don't.
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it's hard to read this data correctly imo, without the 'other side' of the matchups you're kind of left with one conclusion: higher ranked players are better than lower ranked players
which is nice and all as it suggests the ranking system is working, but very non-revealing when it comes to actual map balance imo
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This thread is awesome. I was just thinking today I would like to see some statistics like this.
It sucks that you can't see specific matchups, but it is some pretty interesting information.
It's good to know that everybody hates Desert Oasis as much as I do!
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unfortunately other stats tell us theres less zergs in diamond than toss or terran.
http://sc2ranks.com/stats/race/eu/1
so if the majority of the games played were pvt or mirror then its not gonna tell you abt balance for zerg.
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As a Zerg player all I know is that Scrap Station is my favourite map! The statistics say the map favours me, it sure feels like it when playing anyway!
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Pretty sure that all of them are going to hover around 50% as the system is designed to match people up against someone they'll win against 50% of the time. People who can't hold a 50% win rate against even-matched players get bumped down into platinum. That's why you have such a disparity in race played and not in win %.
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On September 03 2010 21:45 MrCeeJ wrote:
Without knowing what race the opponent was the % are a bit distorted. Given that there are more Terrans than the others more than 1/3 of the games in the Terran section will be mirror matches where as less than 1/3 of the zergs are.
Just because of you, and extensive boredom, here (at the bottom) are the numbers with the mirror match bias removed.
+ Show Spoiler [How does that work?] +Easy. We know the amount of mirror matches on EU Diamond (38/33/29 % for P/T/Z, Random players included - this is VERY slightly skewed due to Diamond players playing lower leagues, but as they generally don't play Bronze ones the effect is very very minor as the race distribution is very similar for the other leagues), and we know the expected result of a mirror match (50/50). So we can subtract 38/33/29 % from the total games, and half of what was subtracted from the wins.
And to reiterate: some people think the stats are flawed because it doesn't account for things like variable opponent skill or similar. But skillful and bad players affect all the stats in exactly the same way, as everyone, regardless of race, is equally likely to get a similarly skilled opponents compared to their own level, and thus cancel each other out. Yes, the matchmaking system tries to bring everyone's win percentage to 50%, but that's all the more reason to put significance on stats that show a deviation from that target (naturally Diamond players already have a win percentage over 50 by beating sub-Diamond players, as the average across all the maps for a certain race show here as well). Actually the "50% target win" principle also removes overall race imbalance completely from this kind of stats (which would manifest as an offset race-specific bias) because that can only be shown in the ratings/ranks and not the win percentages due to how the system works.
Some think that the results can't be interpreted because they include two matchups for each race - to offset this you can simply look for the results for a single map for all the races. For example, Scrap Station is by far the best Zerg map, and is the worst and second worst for T and P. Hence, Z is very good against both on that. On the other end we have Blistering Sands which is among the top Protoss maps - it is also among the top Zerg maps, but the worst by far Terran map. So, Protoss and Zerg have a very good time against Terran on that map, as the win percentage is relatively so high even with their other non-mirror matchup also having success on it.
Also people tend to dislike maps that are shitty in general (and by extension think they're bad for them) regardless of their race's success on it, which is why no one likes Desert Oasis no matter their race, so keep that in mind.
Hopefully that settles some logical fallacies that people tend to have when looking at stats like this. If you're going to claim bullshit, your main argument should probably be sample size (though even that doesn't give that much leeway - think voting polls and their sample sizes)
The results without mirror match bias:
+ Show Spoiler +Terran on Lost Temple : 2813/4934 = 57.01%
Terran on Metalopolis : 2496/4501 = 55.45%
Terran on Kulas Ravine : 1713/3117 = 54.95%
Terran on Xel'Naga Caverns : 2606/4791 = 54.39%
Terran on Steppes of War : 2767/5134 = 53.89%
Terran on Desert Oasis : 1349/2514 = 53.65%
Terran on Delta Quadrant : 1686/3156 = 53.42%
Terran on Scrap Station : 1893/3637 = 52.04%
Terran on Blistering Sands : 2088/4175 = 50.01%
Zerg on Scrap Station : 2341/4097 = 57.13%
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 1359/2479 = 54.82%
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 2448/4476 = 54.69%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 2437/4573 = 53.29%
Zerg on Lost Temple : 2341/4444 = 52.67%
Zerg on Xel'Naga Caverns : 2366/4559 = 51.89%
Zerg on Steppes of War : 2336/4616 = 50.60%
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 1235/2443 = 50.55%
Zerg on Delta Quadrant : 1424/2938 = 48.46%
Protoss on Desert Oasis : 1855/3415 = 54.31%
Protoss on Blistering Sands : 3337/6238 = 53.49%
Protoss on Xel'Naga Caverns : 3463/6512 = 53.17%
Protoss on Steppes of War : 3718/7000 = 53.11%
Protoss on Delta Quadrant : 2159/4071 = 53.03%
Protoss on Kulas Ravine : 2150/4067 = 52.86%
Protoss on Metalopolis : 3257/6164 = 52.83%
Protoss on Lost Temple : 3398/6608 = 51.42%
Protoss on Scrap Station : 2636/5128 = 51.40%
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how come almost all the % are over 50? i think like 1 under. that cant add up?
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yeah could someone explain why every race seems to have like 55% win? its probably basic math but i'm kind of missing how this is possible
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Wow! protoss winrate is affected much less by map... Which should mean that the winrates for zerg and terran fluctuate EVEN more taking into consideration only zvt matchup, Scrap station Heavily fauvors zerg and lost temple heavily fauvors terran! thanks alot for these stats very interesting!
*was looking only on the stats without mirror bias.
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they're taking some arbitrary X number of players, but those players don't necessarily only play games within those X number of players. so it doesn't need to add up to 100%.
basically it's not zero-sum, it'd only need to add up to 100% if they were counting every single player on the EU server.
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On September 09 2010 16:50 rycho wrote:
yeah could someone explain why every race seems to have like 55% win? its probably basic math but i'm kind of missing how this is possible
It's been explained a few times already, but it's due to:
1) Diamond players also getting opponents from lower leagues. Naturally Diamond players have a higher chance to win such a game, so their win percentage rises above 50. If it wasn't clear - what's meant by "Diamond games" here are the match histories of Diamond players; there's no way of knowing what kind of opponents they got (though naturally the vast majority of those were fellow Diamond players).
2) The stats only include the last 0-25 games of each player (all the history that is publicly available) so even if all games were Diamond vs Diamond the stats wouldn't need to add up to 50% if people were more likely to stop playing after a win streak than a losing streak (leaving more wins than losses on average to the match history of their last 25 matches). EDIT: So exactly what the dude above said, he might have been a bit more understandable
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On September 07 2010 00:18 Neo.NEt wrote:
Either the results of this aren't "statistically significant" (56%>53%) or I've been making some poor assumptions. Apparently Terran > Zerg on 4 player maps? This is news to me.
Should not really be, is generally harder to get your overlords into place to scout good on a 4p map. Also that means it is harder to scout where the terran is in the beginning and you're more susceptible to some kind of early harassment push or such. Also more importantly considering it, LT and Kulas are the two most favored maps for T so they add up to the percentage quite a bit for sure.
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eh isnt 50% working as intended with the matchmaking system? i dont understand this topic :X
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All the statistics are too close to 50% to conclude something from them.
Everyone knows the imba maps anyway.
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Random is underpowered on Lost Temple, needs a buff. It's ok though because they hold the highest win rate on any map, 56.59% on Blistering Sands.
I think this statistic alone disputes the significance of these numbers. Since they are all so close together, the only real factor in these players wins were probably if the map fit their playstyle, or just their individual skill in the game played. I think it'd be more fitting to do maybe the top 100-200 players, and see what the statistics look like for those?
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On September 03 2010 20:43 Alexstrasas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2010 20:36 Tufas wrote:
If I read this correctly, most wins go to random players. I love that. Statistic agrees with me, blistering sand is the worst map for terran (same percentage as kulas ravine). Another interesting fact : No one likes to play desert oasis. i actualy find it very very weird that ppl bash desert oasis while no one mentions scrap station. Scrap station is a piece of shit map 10x worse than desert oasis, anyone not playing zerg should turn it off by default
Just me that refuse to cross out maps even if I hate them just because it's ignoring a part of the game which is taunting you "You can't master this map as that race haha oh maw gawd". Screw that, I'll go in there and lose all day every day until I know how to use the map for my own gain.
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On September 03 2010 22:18 Silu wrote:
If you look at the numbers being as relative and not absolute, neither of these matter that much. The idea is to gauge what the maps are like when compared to each other for one race. You're correct that 56% for Zerg doesn't quite mean the same as 56% for Terran (the latter being a bigger sign of "imba" in this case, since they still manage a big win percentage even with relatively more mirror matches included in it). However the numbers are very comparable among a single race.
I'm quoting this because I think a lot of people are misinterpreting these stats and using them to judge whether the maps are balanced between the races. The fact is that these stats have no implications on balance arguments and are only interesting because they can tell us things like "Zerg is better on Scrap Station than on Delta Quadrant" which is purely about which map a given race prefers, but not whether either map is imbalanced in favor of a particular race.
The reason, as has been stated in previous threads with similar statistics, is that Blizzard's matchmaking system skews the results towards 50/50 for each player. Therefore, when you're comparing win rates of the different races in diamond league, you'll always see the overall percentages hover around 50%, no matter how imbalanced the map pool is. Imbalance will weed out a race and cause less players of that race to make it to diamond, however, it won't change the win percentage of the players in diamond very much at all. That's why these statistics are only comparable within a single race, to let you know which maps to thumb down if you want to increase your win percentage.
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On September 09 2010 23:30 Najda wrote:
Random is underpowered on Lost Temple, needs a buff. It's ok though because they hold the highest win rate on any map, 56.59% on Blistering Sands.
I think this statistic alone disputes the significance of these numbers. Since they are all so close together, the only real factor in these players wins were probably if the map fit their playstyle, or just their individual skill in the game played. I think it'd be more fitting to do maybe the top 100-200 players, and see what the statistics look like for those?
Well. Obviously the Random stats are by far the least significant, because of the far smaller sample size. For the same reason the stats from the top100-200 would tell absolutely nothing because of the minuscule sample size.
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Lots of data mining, none of it useful for analysis. So you're responsible for the stats to take forever to load? Way to annoy.
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The fact that you can thumb down maps destroys these stats completely.
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This is awesome, . Looking at the number of games played you can also get a pretty good look at what maps players are removing. The Kulas Ravine numbers for terran are pretty surprising. I wonder what they would look like if you could refine it to only TvZ though.
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On September 10 2010 01:06 Dagobert wrote:
Lots of data mining, none of it useful for analysis. So you're responsible for the stats to take forever to load? Way to annoy.
Mind to elaborate what on earth you are talking about?
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EPT
