EPTSC2 Ladder Analysis: What YOU Need to Know - Page 9
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helokity
Canada47 Posts
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Drazzzt
Germany999 Posts
My friend used to be a 400 pts silver player. I am a ~1200 diamond. For fun, I played like 15-20 games for him and won almost all of the them (except 1). So, due to his high bonus pool we climbed up to 900 pts in silver. At the end, I mainly played against diamond or high platinum players. So far so good. I assume that the hidden MMR was quite high at this point, lets say 900 pts diamond or sth. His open rating, however, was still low of course: silver, 900 pts Now, my friend made a pause of 1 week and started playing. His first game was against a 1172 platinum player which is also fine, as his hidden MMR was high. He lost, because he is not good enough for a high platinum. Fine. Now comes the strange part. The high platinum player gained 13 pts + bonus (also 13), but my friend lost 11 (!) points. How is this possible?? Why did he lose so "many" pts? His open rating was still much much lower (900 silver) than his MMR and presumably also much lower than his opponents MMR. So he should have lost only like 3-5 pts, not 11. The other player gained 13 (more than 12) which might be ok, if we believe that my friend's MMR was even higher than his 1172 platinum points. Is it possible that the open rating of the opponent is much much higher than his hidden MMR? But how would this be possible, as they were matched against each other implying that their hidden MMR was roughly the same. (and my friend's mmr was higher than 1172 plat according to him getting 13 pts). Really strange. Similar things happened to me when I was around 700 diamond. I was constantly playing against 1100-1200 players, but the teams were mostly even and i never gained more than 14 pts (plus bonus). This would imply that my rating (700) was not far away from their hidden MMR. Lets say 900. But this would also be impossible as THEY also played against team even meaning that their shown rating 1200 would be almost as high as my MMR. I can only imagine that this means that being "even" stretches a range of 400-500 pts which would be very strange. | ||
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jinorazi
Korea (South)4948 Posts
i'm only a 600 dia. with almost 700 in bonus pool (i dont know if it matters) but, i've been playing against 1300+ dia players and it was shown as "evenly matched". then i played some other players who were "favored" and noticed they're only 800 points. i checked their records and they all seem to have 50% win rate +-5% with over 200 games (i'm about 50 games) what does this mean??? 800 points can have higher mmr than 1300 yet same in win rate? | ||
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Alphasquad
Austria505 Posts
On October 13 2010 03:46 jinorazi wrote: strange thing i noticed as i played some ladder yesterday. i'm only a 600 dia. with almost 700 in bonus pool (i dont know if it matters) but, i've been playing against 1300+ dia players and it was shown as "evenly matched". then i played some other players who were "favored" and noticed they're only 800 points. i checked their records and they all seem to have 50% win rate +-5% with over 200 games (i'm about 50 games) what does this mean??? 800 points can have higher mmr than 1300 yet same in win rate? i wonder why my pool is so low, if you win most of your games you will be 2k while if i win all of mine im like 1300; till yet i thought the pool changes with every league but i still have the same in diamond as i had in platinum | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On October 13 2010 03:46 jinorazi wrote: strange thing i noticed as i played some ladder yesterday. i'm only a 600 dia. with almost 700 in bonus pool (i dont know if it matters) but, i've been playing against 1300+ dia players and it was shown as "evenly matched". then i played some other players who were "favored" and noticed they're only 800 points. i checked their records and they all seem to have 50% win rate +-5% with over 200 games (i'm about 50 games) what does this mean??? 800 points can have higher mmr than 1300 yet same in win rate? I'm playing people between 1800 and 2100 and I'm being listed at "favored" with 0 bonus pool and about 1600 pts. I'm baffled by the logic. A lot of people have similar win %'s as me and are at least 200 pts higher than me or at least are listed as "unfavored" vs me. | ||
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BeMannerDuPenner
Germany5638 Posts
i get very weird points often too. i just cant understand it and it seems so freakin random at times. im currently ~1500 just some of the weird stuff: i play against a 1650 and win 11. i play against a 1600 and lose 15 i play against a 700 (with normalish stats) and win 14 i play against a 1350 and win 15 next game against a 1400 and i lose 16 someone only 20 points lower and i win 8 is the hidden rating really so off for so many people? sometimes someone 100 points lower is favored and then you are favoured vs the next guy thats 200 above? so crazy | ||
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FloTheSheep
Austria5 Posts
Right now I am at 600 Points in Diamond and get matched against 1200+ Opponents almost all the time (like 9 out of 10 games). Now, this would be nothing strange. Apparently I have a similar MMR as them. Now, the problem is that in the loading screen I am marked as slightly favored or the teams are even. How can I be slightly favored, if I have only 600 points and my opponent has 1300 points? Would that mean, that the opponents have an MMR that is lower than my measly 600 Points? When I lose against such a player, I get -15 points. If I win I only get like 11 points (which are doubled to 22). The effect of this is that I am stuck at my 600 Points, although I win every second game against 1200 opponents. I really dont understand this. Can someone explain whats going on? Did I misunderstand the OP? If you want to check my match history, my account is ToonTheSheep and the ID is 537 on the EU servers. | ||
Excalibur_Z
United States12243 Posts
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Drazzzt
Germany999 Posts
Either, the range of be estimated as even is quite large, let's say 400-500 pts) Or, the hidden MMR can vary rapidly even after having played 200 games. Let's say after a win streak of 5 games, it can easily go up by 300 pts or so. On October 15 2010 00:32 Excalibur_Z wrote: How many points are your opponents losing or winning? If they're seeing themselves as favored also, then that could be our first clue toward some kind of "soft" point ceiling. Unfortunately, I don't have good examples right now, as I only see my last 25 games which are mainly custom games. I found 1 example which is _slightly_ strange, not very strange (so it's not the best, but the best I could find right away). Me, 1180 vs 1350 diamond (open rating). Both see match as even. I lose, he wins. I lose 14 pts (-14), he wins +14 pts. If I lose 14 pts, this means that my open rating is slightly higher than his hidden MMR. -> his hidden MMR must be < 1180 He wins 14 pts, which means that his open rating is slightly lower than my hidden MMR. -> my hidden MMR must be >1350 This would mean that his MMR would be << his rating and my MMR >> my rating (we both have almost no bonus pools and >200 games and ~55% win rate). So: 1.) Why would I play against him (my MMR >> his MMR) 2.) Why is my MMR >> my rating, but his MMR apparently << his rating I looked up my friends history (which is complicated by the fact that the players are in different leagues): friend 900 silver (open) vs other 1200 platin (open) friend loses and loses 11 pts (-11), other wins and gains +14 pts. friend loses 11 -> his 900 silver pts must be slightly < than other's MMR. -> others hidden MMR ~= 1000 silver other wins 14 -> his 1200 platin pts must be < than my friends hidden MMR -> friend's hidden MMR ~=1350 platin So, again: 1.) Why would they play if their MMRs are so far apart 2.) why is my friend's MMR>his rating, but the opponent's MMR apparently << his own rating This makes no sense. At least, in the latter example, my friend's bonus pool was high, the other's was not. | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12243 Posts
On October 15 2010 18:06 Drazzzt wrote: For me, there are only 2 explanations: Either, the range of be estimated as even is quite large, let's say 400-500 pts) Or, the hidden MMR can vary rapidly even after having played 200 games. Let's say after a win streak of 5 games, it can easily go up by 300 pts or so. Unfortunately, I don't have good examples right now, as I only see my last 25 games which are mainly custom games. I found 1 example which is _slightly_ strange, not very strange (so it's not the best, but the best I could find right away). Me, 1180 vs 1350 diamond (open rating). Both see match as even. I lose, he wins. I lose 14 pts (-14), he wins +14 pts. If I lose 14 pts, this means that my open rating is slightly higher than his hidden MMR. -> his hidden MMR must be < 1180 He wins 14 pts, which means that his open rating is slightly lower than my hidden MMR. -> my hidden MMR must be >1350 This would mean that his MMR would be << his rating and my MMR >> my rating (we both have almost no bonus pools and >200 games and ~55% win rate). So: 1.) Why would I play against him (my MMR >> his MMR) 2.) Why is my MMR >> my rating, but his MMR apparently << his rating I looked up my friends history (which is complicated by the fact that the players are in different leagues): friend 900 silver (open) vs other 1200 platin (open) friend loses and loses 11 pts (-11), other wins and gains +14 pts. friend loses 11 -> his 900 silver pts must be slightly < than other's MMR. -> others hidden MMR ~= 1000 silver other wins 14 -> his 1200 platin pts must be < than my friends hidden MMR -> friend's hidden MMR ~=1350 platin So, again: 1.) Why would they play if their MMRs are so far apart 2.) why is my friend's MMR>his rating, but the opponent's MMR apparently << his own rating This makes no sense. At least, in the latter example, my friend's bonus pool was high, the other's was not. MMR constantly fluctuates. If you were on a slight winning streak or your opponent were on a slight losing streak (and it could only be a couple of games in a row), you may play each other and be considered even. Or, "even" could actually cover a few hundred points (which may not be a lot considering the scope of the ladder). Your MMR will never actually settle at your displayed rating, it will always fluctuate to some extent. It may hover around a particular range, but the range will always be pretty large (at least, relative to the gains or losses in points per game). Remember: think in recent trends. | ||
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zedest
England60 Posts
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Drazzzt
Germany999 Posts
On October 19 2010 00:39 zedest wrote: I was promoted from silver to gold rank3, does this mean i was almost promoted to platinum? As far as I understand: no. It is, of course, still possible that you are promoted to platinum soon. The actual rank in your division is no measure for your promotion/demotion. You could be ranked #1 in your league for ages, but still not being promoted. It's rather the hidden MMR in combination with the sigma value which decides about your promotion/demotion (see OP's post at page 1). Nevertheless, I have the feeling that losing only ~300 pts when promoted is not enough overall. | ||
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Moody
United States750 Posts
On October 19 2010 00:39 zedest wrote: I was promoted from silver to gold rank3, does this mean i was almost promoted to platinum? Your "Rank" in a division means absolutely nothing. It is a representation of your points vs other people in your division. For instance: I didn't play any practice matches, jumped straight into league games and was placed in silver. After about 25 more games I was immediately placed in platinum, skipping gold entirely. I was not even close to the top of my division in silver. Also, When I was promoted to Diamond, I was not at the top of my division, or even close. | ||
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Merano
Austria105 Posts
So far the ranking system behaved similar to what Excalibur_Z is describing. After some initial fluctuations, I constantly played high Platinum / low Diamond opponents. Most of my opponents had a solid position in the ladder with >100 games in the ladder. I had no bigger win or loss streaks. But one thing I noticed is pretty weird: ~30 Games ago I had a pretty bad losing streak, losing 8 games in a row. Since then, I got often paired against opponents with <40 games. Some of them gold players with records like 13 wins to 7 losses. Yesterday I got paired against a new player doing his 5th placement match against me. He was 4:0 before and I got 17 points (+17 bonus) for that match. My question: 1) Did anyone experience similar things - being paired against solid players but after a streak getting suddenly paired against new players on the ladder? 2) I always thought that more stable / established players will play among themselves and players new on the ladder will play among themselves. Why I am paired against players in or shortly after placement matches? *edit*: I know that MMR might fluctuate stronger than the rating. 3) Can my 2v2 or 3v3 games have any influence on how stable the system sees my rating? (I play a little bit 2v2 - but quite solid. I only played 5 placement matches for 3v3 as random recently. Throwing 3 of them because of the off racing. But can this have any influene on 1v1 pairing?) 4) Is what I experienced just a statistical outlier? (Honestly I did not look at all my opponents statitics, only when they seemed too weak or too strong for me) | ||
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Drazzzt
Germany999 Posts
unfortunately I can't answer your questions, but I can describe some things happening to me which might be interesting for you nonetheless. I am also a quite streaky player as I don't have much time to play and like to switch races. So, the first games I play after some days of absence I usually have to get used to playing again and to the new styles around. As a consequence, I often lose several gams in a row (even though I don't know if I ever lost 8 games in a row). Then I win some in a row using up my bonus pool and ending just a few points higher than before I started. But I never played against players with few matches or even being in placement , but this might be only by chance. I usually play against ppl having between 500 and 1700 pts in diamond (I'm around 1300), so quite a range (and I can win and lose against any of them, there is no real correlation to points, so either points only mean little or I'm quite unstable or ...w/e). I played some random 2on2s and got paired with some really bad players, but it doesn't have to seem to effect my 1on1s. So, probably you are seeing some statistical outliers _or_ you are even more unstable than I am and your MMR fluctuates quite a lot or platinum is different from diamond  | ||
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Smackzilla
United States539 Posts
Does that mean that high silver and high gold players have similar MMRs? Wouldn't you expect to be playing lower ranked players in your new league after being promoted? How much do leagues really differentiate skill? Is rating a better indicator? If I had to guess, I'd say the leagues overlap quite a bit in skill, at least until you hit diamond. IOW, an 1100 silver isn't that different from an 1100 platinum. | ||
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ElitePlaying
Greenland25 Posts
http://troublmaker.wordpress.com/2010/10/02/blizzard-confirms-bugged-promotion-system/ So what’s the bug? It comes in when you actually are beating players you shouldn’t be. Theoretically if you lost every match to people in higher leagues you’d actually get promoted FASTER than if you were to beat them. The system doesn’t really have anything in place to deal with this so instead it just keeps putting you against people of an equal rating but never promotes you. So my only loss in the placement was a disconnection and I was winning cause half of his base was destroyed and mine untouched, he had no units etc.. and this placed me in gold. So I beat gold naps all the time, im favored vs other Golds and if I lose from gold that's 1 game out of 10, the rest is 50% I win vs platinum and 50% I lose from platinum thus my losses coming from plats but my wins coming from gold all the time and from platinum half of my games vs plat. So the system recognizes that I'm beating platinums etc but still keeps me in gold. I rank up daily and now am under 10, I know i dont need to get #1... Also with the current bug where some games don't show on the ladder stats what r we doing? I play vs team even, in my 1st games I matched vs diamonds and slightly favoted platinums, so it's like once you lose that chance to beat them and qualify fast, the rest is a retarded wait when you are clearly higher than the current. | ||
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KevinIX
United States2472 Posts
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Merano
Austria105 Posts
On October 23 2010 02:43 KevinIX wrote: I've been taking a break from 1v1s and playing 2v2s exclusively. I have 700 ponits and over 700 bonus points in 1v1. I think I'm around 1300 point diamond in terms of skill. Will I be matched with 1300 point diamonds, or will I be matched with 700 point diamonds when I return? You will more likely play against 1300s or 700s with a lot of bonus points left then 700s with no bonus points left. Reason: The matchmaking is based on the hidden skill value (MMR) so your opponents should always be challenging, even after taking a longer break.. | ||
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jarek.exe
Poland60 Posts
When will he get promoted? | ||
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