EPTNBA Offseason 2014 - Page 63
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MassHysteria
United States3678 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
It's not a fight for Kevin Love, it's a fight for the Eastern Conference Finals for the next three years disguised as a fight for Kevin Love. | ||
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slyboogie
United States3423 Posts
On July 23 2014 05:22 ticklishmusic wrote: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11247946/chicago-bulls-join-cleveland-cavaliers-kevin-love-trade-push It's not a fight for Kevin Love, it's a fight for the Eastern Conference Finals for the next three years disguised as a fight for Kevin Love. What a weak offer. What's with this infatuation with Jimmy Butler? He's just a guy. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
THIS SHIT HAS GOT TO STOP | ||
Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On July 23 2014 06:42 slyboogie wrote: What a weak offer. What's with this infatuation with Jimmy Butler? He's just a guy. It raises a question though - do NBA teams have more success with star players/max contracts or multiple high value contracts (Taj Gibson.) Thinking about the team holistically, to win a championship is it better to get fair value from a huge contract or great value from smaller contracts. With rookies it overlaps a bit, but is there a point where two great value contracts offer more wins than a superstar contract? I guess it could be argued superstars are high value contracts too though. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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Disregard
China10252 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Jibba
United States22883 Posts
On July 23 2014 07:39 Ace wrote: Star players are actually undervalued also. A "max" of $20 mil per year is probably the true worth of say, someone like Joakim Noah. Whereas the Lebron/Durant/CP3 level guys are really worth $50mil or better. Relative value is great and all but when the entire market is underpaid getting stars is even more of an advantage than at first glance. Aren't there much higher diminishing returns on it though? Again, thinking in terms of supporting a deep 8 man playoff roster. Maybe marginal value is the way to look at it. If your team gets Lebron at a bargain of 20m (I agree he is - I kinda said it at the end), is Durant also worth 20m to your team? And CP3 after that? And KLove after that? At some point the rest of the roster has to be filled out, and I don't think you can fill them with junk pieces, even with 3 legit superstars. So for the Bulls with Noah and Rose already, is KLove's marginal value (as the third added superstar) worth more than several high value contracts? Or to put it another way, if I'm starting from scratch absolutely I'll take KLove over Butler + Gibson. If I've already got 2 healthy superstars (ignore Rose's injury stuff for this,) I'm not sure. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
If you have Lebron at 20M are CP3 and Durant also worth 20M? The answer is a resounding yes. Because you are only paying 60M for something worth ~150M and assuming the cap is ~77mil in a few years you're going to have space to fill out the roster anyway. Obviously pairing them up with junk pieces is a dangerous game (see 2011 Miami Heat) but it can work. I myself wouldn't want to do it but a Durant/Lebron/CP3 core is pretty a much covering multiple areas you want anyway. re: Bulls - yes, K Love is worth more than several high value contracts. The reason? Minutes. Unless you can get all those high value contracts the minutes on court to exceed Love's production then you are just paying multiple guys to do the job of one. This is also the San Antonio way of doing things since the early 2000s - rack up as many regular season Ws at the expense of star minutes and dominate the playoffs. The problem is you have multiple pieces that need to live up to expectations for it to work. In the Bulls scenario paying Butler/Gibson the money to do Love's work isn't even worth it because they don't even come close to producing his value anyway. You'd need something like 3000+ minutes of those two to equal 2000 minutes of Love's output. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On July 23 2014 07:56 Ace wrote: 50 mil for the 3 I mentioned is not an exaggeration. You should read up on Wages of WIns and their derivative sites to understand where this is coming from. The tax cap is basically 75 million, the regular cap is 63 million. If we were talking about an uncapped league, than perhaps you are correct, but in a capped league its fairly implausible for a player to be worth 50 million dollars. What you are essentially saying in that scenario is that player + a team of minimum players will win 41 games. Plausible for Lebron, certainly not for CP3. Edit, If you have a link to a direct page with analysis from that site which supports you I would be willing to read it. This is one of the things Ive seen that supporst more reasonable numbers http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-sign-an-nba-player-to-the-max/ edit also http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1513402-doing-the-math-on-lebron-james-would-be-worth-on-the-open-market ^ For an uncapped league | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
ETA: I mean, why are you even linking to the 538 piece (that I'm very familiar with) and not even reading the obvious? Silver is talking about Wins Produced which he is getting from the Wages of Wins/BoxScore Geeks guys. These decisions can easily go wrong. The very best players in the league might be worth 20 wins per season or more, which can translate into valuations in the range of $40 million a year — much higher than the maximum salary. However, only the top few players in the league — James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and perhaps a half-dozen others — are worth considerably more than the max. He just said what I've been telling you. Come on :/ ETA2: Im digging through BoxscoreGeeks archive now but this one from their WoW days is a good starter: http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/09/explaining-the-nba-cap-and-the-value-of-a-win/ This is a similar approach the the article I'm looking for. It uses total Win Shares (really want WS/48 - or use Wins Produced/48 but w/e) and only counts on court production in valuation: http://hoopshabit.com/2014/07/02/much-lebron-james-really-worth/ | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
i'm not really in tune with the methodology of basketball statistics but it is hard to imagine such stats have perfectly captured all the player value without a sufficiently developed model of team value. for a guy like kevin love, i really do question how much value he has without being that good of a disruption creator by himself. his game seems to be really smart opportunism to the max and the end of game stats sort of support this impression. also saying david lee approximates kevin love without the three point shot isn't necessarily to discredit love that much, because of how important the three is. it's just a bit of a high variance and perhaps less effective during the clutch play, at least when you don't have a supreme off the dribble guy to disrupt things and create space for the three. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On July 23 2014 08:39 Ace wrote: Um, no. I'll try and make this fairly simple. If we know the value of a player based on how much they contribute to winning, by any RAPM type measurement or Wins Produced measurement it's not difficult to extrapolate how much their on court production is worth. We just need to know the average player's value. The cap is irrelevant here. Lebron and Chris Paul don't just magically stop producing once their value + other players on the team exceed the cap. ETA: I mean, why are you even linking to the 538 piece (that I'm very familiar with) and not even reading the obvious? Silver is talking about Wins Produced which he is getting from the Wages of Wins/BoxScore Geeks guys. He just said what I've been telling you. Come on :/ ETA2: Im digging through BoxscoreGeeks archive now but this one from their WoW days is a good starter: http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/09/explaining-the-nba-cap-and-the-value-of-a-win/ This is a similar approach the the article I'm looking for. It uses total Win Shares (really want WS/48 - or use Wins Produced/48 but w/e) and only counts on court production in valuation: http://hoopshabit.com/2014/07/02/much-lebron-james-really-worth/ Your own sources indicate they are worth ~ $30-40 million per year (For Lebron and Durant), which is less than 50. Plus that, "[t]his doesn’t take into account the fact that in the top 450 there are 38 players who shouldn’t be paid anything at all by calculating based on win shares, which obviously can’t happen." So thanks for proving my point while arguing with me for no reason at all. You literally said 50 million, I said that was too high. Then your sources said it is too high. Also your sources say even elite players like Davis are worth ~the max salary, meaning a huge number of players earning it are not delivering excess value (my other point). | ||
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