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China6329 Posts
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China6329 Posts
The races:
1st: straight winner between Onsyde and BASK gets No.1 seed, simple as that. Onsyde can also hold on to P1 with an ace win.
3rd-5th: DKZ only needs an ace win vs SSLT to secure 3rd, easily doable. This leaves TL and ABS to directly fight for 4th, winner takes it.
6-8th: this is a mess. If PH vs SR doesn't go to ace, SSLT advances alongside the winner of that match. If they do, SSLT needs to take one or two maps off DKZ depending on who came out on top in that match.
10-11th: Berserker could theoretically outrun apocalypse by winning 3 points if SLT also loses straight, but this is unlikely considering competition for both teams.
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Basilisk got the best matchup for them (1st vs 2nd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 1st in term of player strength). Ryung would need to pull off some crazy upset or Solar need to play a very high level ZvZ for Onsyde to keep the 1st place. Btw, Onsyde only need to get to an Ace match to keep 1st place because they have map score advantage.
DKZ likely to keep 3rd place and Liquid should beat Abydos for 4th because of their 2nd-rated lineup.
And I believe in SR to beat PH to make everything simple on that side.
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On July 13 2023 00:04 tigera6 wrote:
Basilisk got the best matchup for them (1st vs 2nd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 1st in term of player strength). Ryung would need to pull off some crazy upset or Solar need to play a very high level ZvZ for Onsyde to keep the 1st place. Btw, Onsyde only need to get to an Ace match to keep 1st place because they have map score advantage.
DKZ likely to keep 3rd place and Liquid should beat Abydos for 4th because of their 2nd-rated lineup.
And I believe in SR to beat PH to make everything simple on that side.
While I don't dispute your overall rating of player strength, I do think Serral would have had better odds of 2-0ing Maru than 2-0ing Solar bc ZvZ. Still a pretty good draw for Basilisk though, while Ryung has been impressive in WTL he's the only player on Onysde I trust Reynor to 2-0 and I think Trigger most likely goes 0-2 against anyone on Onysde.
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Yes, Onsyde can be happy with ace loss, it will be enough for them to clutch the first place.
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Canada8989 Posts
On July 13 2023 00:15 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2023 00:04 tigera6 wrote:
Basilisk got the best matchup for them (1st vs 2nd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 1st in term of player strength). Ryung would need to pull off some crazy upset or Solar need to play a very high level ZvZ for Onsyde to keep the 1st place. Btw, Onsyde only need to get to an Ace match to keep 1st place because they have map score advantage.
DKZ likely to keep 3rd place and Liquid should beat Abydos for 4th because of their 2nd-rated lineup.
And I believe in SR to beat PH to make everything simple on that side. While I don't dispute your overall rating of player strength, I do think Serral would have had better odds of 2-0ing Maru than 2-0ing Solar bc ZvZ. Still a pretty good draw for Basilisk though, while Ryung has been impressive in WTL he's the only player on Onysde I trust Reynor to 2-0 and I think Trigger most likely goes 0-2 against anyone on Onysde.
Y'all acting as if Ryung won't set up Maru with a 1-1 only for Maru to choke his ass out of a championship.
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If Maru try another 2 base all-in and lose in that Ace match, I will throw my laptop on on the ground. The dude just doesnt want to play macro game for some damn reason.
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United States33423 Posts
ONSYDE finally changing their line-up order in the last couple of weeks but still getting the short stick against BASILISK is kinda hilarious
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Solar serral will be a lot closer than people think - I think there's at least a 50% chance solar goes 1-1 with how well he's been playing
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Liquibets still aren't up
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Nice's Disruptor play in game 1 against BreakingGG was very effective. Rarely have I seen so many big hits in a row.
Update: OMG, Starlight Twinkle debuting a player I have never seen before in the ace match. That is so unexpected and cool.
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China6329 Posts
Berserker's fight for survival ended before it even began.
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France12888 Posts
On July 13 2023 00:15 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2023 00:04 tigera6 wrote:
Basilisk got the best matchup for them (1st vs 2nd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 1st in term of player strength). Ryung would need to pull off some crazy upset or Solar need to play a very high level ZvZ for Onsyde to keep the 1st place. Btw, Onsyde only need to get to an Ace match to keep 1st place because they have map score advantage.
DKZ likely to keep 3rd place and Liquid should beat Abydos for 4th because of their 2nd-rated lineup.
And I believe in SR to beat PH to make everything simple on that side. While I don't dispute your overall rating of player strength, I do think Serral would have had better odds of 2-0ing Maru than 2-0ing Solar bc ZvZ. Still a pretty good draw for Basilisk though, while Ryung has been impressive in WTL he's the only player on Onysde I trust Reynor to 2-0 and I think Trigger most likely goes 0-2 against anyone on Onysde.
Completely, Solar can take a game off Serral while Maru is kinda hopeless given the state of TvZ atm, Onsyde have decent odds to get an ace match. I can see trigger take a game off Maru though since it’s online, he usually performs well versus terran
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Canada8989 Posts
YoungZest showing up out of the blue to win the ace, if the kind of baller move his elder would approve off.
I wonder what's next for SLT, they are in a bit of an awkward place for next season.
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On July 14 2023 21:26 Crocolisk Dundee wrote:
Nice's Disruptor play in game 1 against BreakingGG was very effective. Rarely have I seen so many big hits in a row.
Update: OMG, Starlight Twinkle debuting a player I have never seen before in the ace match. That is so unexpected and cool.
SLT have brought quite a lot of flair to the tournament.
Today and tomorrow are the matches that matter, though. SCBoy definitely has a knack for tournament planning!
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Canada8989 Posts
Shadown takes the first map, full alert for SR now.
Edit: And Goblin put one on the board!!
DNS and Scarlett with the season on the tip of their mouse
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SSLT is going to be the biggest Heroes fan now
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Canada8989 Posts
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China6329 Posts
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Canada8989 Posts
Psistorm Gaming and Shopify Rebellion both out of the playoff, PH and SSLT both in
What a season for the underdogs
I'm kind of shocked I called PH over SR tbh lol
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Byun really didnt have a great WTL season.
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On July 16 2023 00:53 tigera6 wrote:
Byun really didnt have a great WTL season.
ByuN is the player least to blame for their results...
Anyway, glad the Camels are going through. Would be really funny if they can manage to beat DKZ.
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On July 16 2023 00:53 tigera6 wrote:
Byun really didnt have a great WTL season.
Byun has a positive record, Lambo is even, Scarlett had an awful early defence against DnS.
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On July 16 2023 01:01 Philippe wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2023 00:53 tigera6 wrote:
Byun really didnt have a great WTL season. Byun has a positive record, Lambo is even, Scarlett had an awful early defence against DnS.
Different members of SR under performed at certain important moments (Byun dropping maps to Silky and Goblin, Lambo losing to Firefly, Scarlett today, etc), put that together and they don't advance. Don't think any one player is to blame, just a bunch of accumulated missed wins, as well as some unexpected opponents playing some inspired starcraft.
Until today Scarlett actually had a sneakily good season, her record wasn't great but she took a game off Serral and 2-0'd Oliveira.
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On July 16 2023 01:05 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2023 01:01 Philippe wrote:On July 16 2023 00:53 tigera6 wrote:
Byun really didnt have a great WTL season. Byun has a positive record, Lambo is even, Scarlett had an awful early defence against DnS. Different members of SR under performed at certain important moments (Byun dropping maps to Silky and Goblin, Lambo losing to Firefly, Scarlett today, etc), put that together and they don't advance. Don't think any one player is to blame, just a bunch of accumulated missed wins, as well as some unexpected opponents playing some inspired starcraft. Until today Scarlett actually had a sneakily good season, her record wasn't great but she took a game off Serral and 2-0'd Oliveira.
Byun losing 2-0 to trigger was hilarious. They had a major upset within their reach and Trigger saved Basilisk.
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On July 16 2023 01:01 Philippe wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2023 00:53 tigera6 wrote:
Byun really didnt have a great WTL season. Byun has a positive record, Lambo is even, Scarlett had an awful early defence against DnS.
But we, or at least I, expect Byun record to be much better than just over 50%. Just look at MaxPax, he has a much better winrate but his teammates has completely under-performed until Spirit come. Byun dropped too many important maps and it has come back to bite SR in the end.
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China6329 Posts
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50:50 Reynor looks like he's striking again
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Now where was this Ryung in GSL?
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Canada8989 Posts
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So far Trigger is looking quite good. But I'd still only give him a 10% chance of taking the W vs Maru.
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yeah, late game vs Maru is just really really hard.
E: but if you storm all the ghosts and then Maru sacrifices all his vikings for a few carriers, maybe there's hope?
E again: nvm.
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Canada8989 Posts
Watching Maru games will be the death of me
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France12888 Posts
Maru is incredible, nice fight from trigger though.
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I nearly lost my life seeing Maru doing the same old 2 base push that Byun did when he played against Trigger and get countered. Luckily Maru just know how to turtle into a lategame win.
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Canada8989 Posts
Onsyde win the regular season, gg to them.
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If Reynor shows up for playoffs I still like Basilisk's chances to win the whole thing, but having to beat DKZ first (probably) makes it a lot tougher for them.
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Lol. Don't often see ling/bane beat the roaches
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They do if you have no banes of your own to zone out the mass lings. Solar didnt expect Serral to go all-in there.
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Before WTL
Serral：Why Reynor is only 80+?
Now
Serral： Why 50-50 Reynor is 80+?
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I think they just rate him 90 before the Ryung match as well.
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Who would be favored Rotti vs Crank? Crank was a solid pro back in HOTS, but idk how much he plays right now.
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Canada8989 Posts
On July 17 2023 00:36 dysenterymd wrote:
Who would be favored Rotti vs Crank? Crank was a solid pro back in HOTS, but idk how much he plays right now.
My guess would be Rotti since he kept up with his practice throughout the years
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On July 17 2023 00:38 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2023 00:36 dysenterymd wrote:
Who would be favored Rotti vs Crank? Crank was a solid pro back in HOTS, but idk how much he plays right now. My guess would be Rotti since he kept up with his practice throughout the years
Rotti is 43 to Crank's 41, Rotti heavily favored.
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DAE matchfixing? 
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Canada8989 Posts
On July 17 2023 00:39 dysenterymd wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2023 00:38 Nakajin wrote:On July 17 2023 00:36 dysenterymd wrote:
Who would be favored Rotti vs Crank? Crank was a solid pro back in HOTS, but idk how much he plays right now. My guess would be Rotti since he kept up with his practice throughout the years Rotti is 43 to Crank's 41, Rotti heavily favored.
Are those their scores or their ages?
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China6329 Posts
Rotti is probably going to take this one, PvP has always been good for him and he actually have been practicing.
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Haha, what a showdown.
Congratulations to Basilisk. Serral carrying the season with dropping only a single map and Rotti acing the finals, good stuff.
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Crank macro was good and well until he taking all the bad fight outside of bases, show the lack of experience comparing to the veteran Rotti.
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Ryang won 5000 dollars to Onsyde just by himself. 
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After 5 seasons of WTL
1) BASILISK is the first team to finish the regular season with straight wins
2) Team with best match record didn't top the table (SR was 2nd with the joint-best match record in 2021 Winter)
3) Bottom team finished with 0 match wins
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On July 16 2023 23:28 Nakajin wrote:The man with a plan does it again 1-1  Clem1-1  DnS2-0 ByuN1-1  Dark1-1 Cure1-1 ReynorHe's been a giant killer this season
Amazing. MVP of tournament in terms of expected value?
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On July 17 2023 03:27 Pandain wrote:Amazing. MVP of tournament in terms of expected value?
By far, he did amazingly well
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United States33423 Posts
On July 17 2023 03:27 Pandain wrote:Amazing. MVP of tournament in terms of expected value?
woulda been the best pick if we still had fantasy proleague 
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This remind me of his great performance with Team GP from WTL Summer last year, 2 seasons ago, I think he had the best record for Terran in the entire league, better than Byun, Cure, Bunny and Clem.
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On July 17 2023 03:27 Pandain wrote:Amazing. MVP of tournament in terms of expected value?
Maybe Firefly?
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I finally got to watch Reynor vs Ryung, and Ryung was so good about EMPing the infestors, he was always keeping track of them and sending like 2 ghosts ahead or doing a little drop
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On July 17 2023 09:36 Evilmj wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2023 03:27 Pandain wrote:On July 16 2023 23:28 Nakajin wrote:The man with a plan does it again 1-1 Clem1-1 DnS2-0 ByuN1-1 Dark1-1 Cure1-1 ReynorHe's been a giant killer this season Amazing. MVP of tournament in terms of expected value? Maybe Firefly?
Hard to call. They've both been key to their team's stellar performance.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/6bbgMLa.png)
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