On June 13 2021 00:54 Vindicare605 wrote: Just woke up. Glad to see I haven't missed much. Glad to see Dark is back to playing better. Was the Zoun/Dark series any good?
On June 12 2021 23:35 [PkF] Wire wrote: what a wacky series
I watch Has vs Rex games when I want to see hilarious stupid stuff, but I don't have much hope that Has can really scare any of the best international players anymore
I've seen a handful of games where Protoss forgot you actually need Storm support for a few minutes, and proceeded to get rolled by Hydra-Microbial shroud. This was not one of those games
On June 13 2021 04:33 JJH777 wrote: Time proving how underrated he is by aligulac and the community at large.
Anyone that takes aligulac seriously is a fool. It has about as much credibility as ESPN's top players list on any given season. And in case you don't know sports, anyone that takes THOSE seriously is also a fool that doesn't understand anything about the game either.
On June 13 2021 04:33 JJH777 wrote: Time proving how underrated he is by aligulac and the community at large.
Nah Time is just the modern day Bomber.
Time's Law: Time will always disappoint. Corollary to Time's Law: If Time does not disappoint, it will be in order to set up a bigger disappointment later.
On June 13 2021 04:33 JJH777 wrote: Time proving how underrated he is by aligulac and the community at large.
Anyone that takes aligulac seriously is a fool. It has about as much credibility as ESPN's top players list on any given season. And in case you don't know sports, anyone that takes THOSE seriously is also a fool that doesn't understand anything about the game either.
Nah man, aligulac is a great tool as long as you understand where it's shortcomings are. And this might just be a low probability outcome that actually happened! SC2 has a lot of variability after all.
On June 13 2021 04:33 JJH777 wrote: Time proving how underrated he is by aligulac and the community at large.
Anyone that takes aligulac seriously is a fool. It has about as much credibility as ESPN's top players list on any given season. And in case you don't know sports, anyone that takes THOSE seriously is also a fool that doesn't understand anything about the game either.
Nah man, aligulac is a great tool as long as you understand where it's shortcomings are. And this might just be a low probability outcome that actually happened! SC2 has a lot of variability after all.
Aligulac says it was a low probability outcome because it doesn't have data from China and meanwhile it has HeroMarine higher rated than he should be because it treats the ESL weeklies like they actually matter.
In other words aligulac is useless for determining anything about this match up. Hence why it was a 3-0 in TIME's way and aligulac was completely wrong.
On June 13 2021 04:33 JJH777 wrote: Time proving how underrated he is by aligulac and the community at large.
Anyone that takes aligulac seriously is a fool. It has about as much credibility as ESPN's top players list on any given season. And in case you don't know sports, anyone that takes THOSE seriously is also a fool that doesn't understand anything about the game either.
Nah man, aligulac is a great tool as long as you understand where it's shortcomings are. And this might just be a low probability outcome that actually happened! SC2 has a lot of variability after all.
Aligulac says it was a low probability outcome because it doesn't have data from China and meanwhile it has HeroMarine higher rated than he should be because it treats the ESL weeklies like they actually matter.
In other words aligulac is useless for determining anything about this match up. Hence why it was a 3-0 in TIME's way and aligulac was completely wrong.
Upsets happen all the time in SCII though--cherry-picking individual wrong predictions means nothing. Probabilistic predictions should only be considered in the aggregate.
I think the biggest problem with aligulac is weighting online results too highly, and weighting small tournaments highly too. The online/offline distinction is more forgivable right now because all foreign starcraft is online, but has also been a long running issue. Looking at who is rated too highly/too low is interesting. Cure, Solar, Heromarine and probably Innovation are ranked too high (possibly the Europeans, I don't think so but there's no way to tell for sure until offline play resumes), and Rogue is way too low, which is about what you'd expect from a system which privileges offline play and smaller tournaments.
On June 13 2021 11:12 dysenterymd wrote: I think the biggest problem with aligulac is weighting online results too highly, and weighting small tournaments highly too. The online/offline distinction is more forgivable right now because all foreign starcraft is online, but has also been a long running issue. Looking at who is rated too highly/too low is interesting. Cure, Solar, Heromarine and probably Innovation are ranked too high (possibly the Europeans, I don't think so but there's no way to tell for sure until offline play resumes), and Rogue is way too low, which is about what you'd expect from a system which privileges offline play and smaller tournaments.
Trying to weigh some games more heavily than others is a very artificial notion though. Sure it might serve our purposes, but imo it has no place in a rigorously mathematical rating system. The onus is on the person who is using aligulac's information to account for stuff like that or to consider when the lack of cross-regional play means that some ratings aren't directly comparable.
Rogue loses loads of online games to players he has very little business losing to. Thus he should have a lower rating. Maybe it's not useful for you when you want to see how he will perform in GSL, but if you're trying to predict an arbitrary game of Rogue's it makes sense for him to have a lower rating.
Aligulac is a tool, and it's very useful as long as it's used intelligently.
I'll compromise here. I'll look at aligulac to see what a player has been doing that I've never heard of. I don't care at all what aligulac says about players I've seen with my own eyes play numerous times at numerous events.
If aligulac said that this match was heavily favored for HeroMarine it was straight wrong. This match was even if not slightly in TIME's favor based on what I've seen from both of these guys, except I hadn't seen TIME play in a while so I wasn't sure.
After watching that it looks like TIME is back to his form that he had when he took Serral to the distance at Blizzcon. HeroMarine has never shown a form that was THAT strong.
On June 13 2021 11:12 dysenterymd wrote: I think the biggest problem with aligulac is weighting online results too highly, and weighting small tournaments highly too. The online/offline distinction is more forgivable right now because all foreign starcraft is online, but has also been a long running issue. Looking at who is rated too highly/too low is interesting. Cure, Solar, Heromarine and probably Innovation are ranked too high (possibly the Europeans, I don't think so but there's no way to tell for sure until offline play resumes), and Rogue is way too low, which is about what you'd expect from a system which privileges offline play and smaller tournaments.
Trying to weigh some games more heavily than others is a very artificial notion though. Sure it might serve our purposes, but imo it has no place in a rigorously mathematical rating system. The onus is on the person who is using aligulac's information to account for stuff like that or to consider when the lack of cross-regional play means that some ratings aren't directly comparable.
Rogue loses loads of online games to players he has very little business losing to. Thus he should have a lower rating. Maybe it's not useful for you when you want to see how he will perform in GSL, but if you're trying to predict an arbitrary game of Rogue's it makes sense for him to have a lower rating.
Aligulac is a tool, and it's very useful as long as it's used intelligently.
Well, we do have a weighted rating for SC2 players, its called the EPT Points System. The problem is, we have people who view the Aligulac ranking as a "universal truth" whenever they bringing up matchup. I am fine with thinking of it as a reference for the player recent performance, but we should realize its short-coming and put some more sense into the discussion.
The main issue with Aligulac imho is that they let matchups affect each other as far as rating goes; truly indipendent ratings would make for better predictions, even if the current system is pretty good already.
Specifically, I think TIME is underrated by Aligulac because he plays most of the times against chinese opponents whose matches against non chinese are rare and usually unsuccessful, leading their rating to be low and dragging TIME's down.
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