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On November 11 2013 02:30 Bagration wrote:
So what's the playoff picture looking like now?
Mouz: 5-4, +3 (done with their matches)
Quantic: 5-3, -4
Axiom: 5-3, +8
Liquid: 3-3, +0
If I'm understanding correctly, at the very worst (where Axiom gets all killed), Axiom would be 5-4, +3, which is the same as Mouz. If head to head is used, Mouz theoretically cannot finish ahead of Axiom at this point right?
Quantic has 1 more match left, but their map differential is too low for tie breaks. If they don't win and get that 6-3, they are done.
It's worth mentioning that Quantic's remaining match is against Team Liquid. If Quantic win that match can Team Liquid still finish ahead of Axiom? Axiom still have to play Team Liquid so I'm thinking yes?
Also are Millenium out the picture yet? Say they trounce coL and iG. Could they still qualify?
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Still in the balance as if Quantic beat Liquid and then Liquid win their other two then if they have a better map differential then they could just pip Axiom to a playoff spot.
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On November 11 2013 02:53 AWalker9 wrote:
Still in the balance as if Quantic beat Liquid and then Liquid win their other two then if they have a better map differential then they could just pip Axiom to a playoff spot.
Yup, with a 2-1 score in remaining matches, Liquid could at best get a +9 differential (4-5 loss, 5-0 win, 5-0 win). Quantic would advance, and Axiom's map differential would drop to +3. Liquid and Quantic take the remaining two spots then.
The big match will definitely be Axiom-Liquid. In terms of teamleagues, these two teams are pretty even, both having taken series off of each other. Axiom has a deeper lineup though (5 capable players, though Ryung needs to break out of his slump), whereas Liquid's big gun Taeja has peaked higher.
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mouz qualifies iff:
TL wins against Quantic and wins against Axiom 5-0
or TL wins against Quantic, loses against Axiom and Empire-Ence
or TL wins against Quantic and one more, but does not improve their mapscore by more than 2.
Plus:
Millenium doesn't overtake them by taking two wins and improve their mapscore by 8
AND coL doesn't overtake them
Axiom qualifies iff:
They win against TL
or TL wins against Quantic and Axiom is not 0-5'd by TL (and neither Mill nor coL overtake them by miracle)
or TL wins against Quantic and Axiom is 0-5'd by TL but TL has a worse mapscore than Axiom in the end (and neither Mill nor coL overtake them by miracle)
or TL loses against Quantic and wins against Axiom not by 5-0 and does not overtake Axiom in mapscore in the end (and neither Mill nor coL overtake them by miracle)
TL:DR:
Best chance for mouz is TL to win against Quantic and lose against Axiom and Empire-Ence.
Best chance for Axiom is to win against TL (or at least not to be crushed by TL and TL to win against Quantic)
Remember that H2H has less priority than map wins (wins > map diff > map wins > H2H). The rule sucks but it was the case last season as well!
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On November 11 2013 02:50 Crot4le wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2013 02:30 Bagration wrote:
So what's the playoff picture looking like now?
Mouz: 5-4, +3 (done with their matches)
Quantic: 5-3, -4
Axiom: 5-3, +8
Liquid: 3-3, +0
If I'm understanding correctly, at the very worst (where Axiom gets all killed), Axiom would be 5-4, +3, which is the same as Mouz. If head to head is used, Mouz theoretically cannot finish ahead of Axiom at this point right?
Quantic has 1 more match left, but their map differential is too low for tie breaks. If they don't win and get that 6-3, they are done. It's worth mentioning that Quantic's remaining match is against Team Liquid. If Quantic win that match can Team Liquid still finish ahead of Axiom? Axiom still have to play Team Liquid so I'm thinking yes? Also are Millenium out the picture yet? Say they trounce coL and iG. Could they still qualify?
Millenium pretty much needs to go 10-0 in the last two matches and the same kind of results as mouz does.
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On November 11 2013 02:56 Bagration wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2013 02:53 AWalker9 wrote:
Still in the balance as if Quantic beat Liquid and then Liquid win their other two then if they have a better map differential then they could just pip Axiom to a playoff spot. Yup, with a 2-1 score in remaining matches, Liquid could at best get a +9 differential (4-5 loss, 5-0 win, 5-0 win). Quantic would advance, and Axiom's map differential would drop to +3. Liquid and Quantic take the remaining two spots then. The big match will definitely be Axiom-Liquid. In terms of teamleagues, these two teams are pretty even, both having taken series off of each other. Axiom has a deeper lineup though (5 capable players, though Ryung needs to break out of his slump), whereas Liquid's big gun Taeja has peaked higher.
I don't know why but it seems like ever since WCS AM Season 1 Ryung's been slumping. It's really sad to see.
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On November 11 2013 02:56 Bagration wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2013 02:53 AWalker9 wrote:
Still in the balance as if Quantic beat Liquid and then Liquid win their other two then if they have a better map differential then they could just pip Axiom to a playoff spot. Yup, with a 2-1 score in remaining matches, Liquid could at best get a +9 differential (4-5 loss, 5-0 win, 5-0 win). Quantic would advance, and Axiom's map differential would drop to +3. Liquid and Quantic take the remaining two spots then. The big match will definitely be Axiom-Liquid. In terms of teamleagues, these two teams are pretty even, both having taken series off of each other. Axiom has a deeper lineup though (5 capable players, though Ryung needs to break out of his slump), whereas Liquid's big gun Taeja has peaked higher.
The thing is, and why I'm pretty worried about Team Liquid, is that Axiom often struggle against teams with that one ace player. All of Axiom's losses this season effectively come against one player. TheSTC for compLexity, ForGG for Millenium and San for Western Wolves. I now BabyKnight and MajOr also chipped in a couple of wins in those two non-all-kills but the point still holds up.
While Axiom have great strength in depth, the team is also pretty balanced. Therefore, if the TaeJa build up a bit of momentum he could prove to be unstoppable as Axiom. If not an all-kill, he could take out three or four players in a row and TL have other players, such as Snute who are more than capable of 'mopping up' so to speak. Then again, Heart 2-0ed TaeJa in WCS AM so there's that and TaeJa has been a little off recently. Also, I do believe that the calibre of every player on Axiom is high enough that they could beat anyone if they are totally on their game.
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United Kingdom29440 Posts
Tbh I wouldnt mind any team qualifiying except Quantic I like HyuN but the team is just sooooo shallow It is literlly just HyuN atleast the other teams have a couple of players you know?
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On November 11 2013 05:47 GumBa wrote:
Tbh I wouldnt mind any team qualifiying except Quantic I like HyuN but the team is just sooooo shallow It is literlly just HyuN atleast the other teams have a couple of players you know?
Yeah, have to agree with you. But it would be great for the other teams though. Quantic is such an easy team to prepare for. Just snipe Hyun and you're good to go.
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HyuNtic and friends should not be counted out.
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On November 11 2013 05:47 GumBa wrote:
Tbh I wouldnt mind any team qualifiying except Quantic I like HyuN but the team is just sooooo shallow It is literlly just HyuN atleast the other teams have a couple of players you know?
Looking through the results it's unbelievable how reliant Quantic are on HyuN. He simply carries the team.
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Our fate now lies in other teams hands once again. Just like it did in the last ATC season, just like it did in SC2L. I've been wanting to write something here for quite a while, but I'm out of words. We had quite a journey, with a very disappointing start of this season into a remarkable comeback, a force of nature I surely did not see coming. With that being said, I apologize to our fans that we most likely did not make it this time either. There's a very good Swedish saying: He who joins the game, must take the consequences of the game.
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On November 12 2013 00:57 mouz.Wake wrote:
Our fate now lies in other teams hands once again. Just like it did in the last ATC season, just like it did in SC2L. I've been wanting to write something here for quite a while, but I'm out of words. We had quite a journey, with a very disappointing start of this season into a remarkable comeback, a force of nature I surely did not see coming. With that being said, I apologize to our fans that we most likely did not make it this time either. There's a very good Swedish saying: He who joins the game, must take the consequences of the game.
Don't worry, even if you don't make it to the playoffs, I think most fans like myself are happy with the performance. Still the best foreigner team by far! (Sorry Acer, I love you too, but you did kind of get carried by Innovation..)
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On November 12 2013 00:57 mouz.Wake wrote:
Our fate now lies in other teams hands once again. Just like it did in the last ATC season, just like it did in SC2L. I've been wanting to write something here for quite a while, but I'm out of words. We had quite a journey, with a very disappointing start of this season into a remarkable comeback, a force of nature I surely did not see coming. With that being said, I apologize to our fans that we most likely did not make it this time either. There's a very good Swedish saying: He who joins the game, must take the consequences of the game.
Not sure why so gloomy. Apart from being demolished by Major, the performance was very good:
Winning against Teamliquid and Western Wolves, Vortix demolishing Quantic.
The win against Empire-Bratok-Ence and Invicturs Gaming were anticipated,
as were the losses against Team Acer (Innovation + MMA) and Axiom.
The clanwar vs Millenium was incredibly close but in the end ForGG just proved to be too good.
edit:
On November 12 2013 01:05 mikkmagro wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2013 00:57 mouz.Wake wrote:
Our fate now lies in other teams hands once again. Just like it did in the last ATC season, just like it did in SC2L. I've been wanting to write something here for quite a while, but I'm out of words. We had quite a journey, with a very disappointing start of this season into a remarkable comeback, a force of nature I surely did not see coming. With that being said, I apologize to our fans that we most likely did not make it this time either. There's a very good Swedish saying: He who joins the game, must take the consequences of the game. Don't worry, even if you don't make it to the playoffs, I think most fans like myself are happy with the performance. Still the best foreigner team by far! (Sorry Acer, I love you too, but you did kind of get carried by Innovation..)
What an obvious trollpost. MMA also did well more than his share of pulling the team!
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On November 12 2013 01:25 JustPassingBy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2013 00:57 mouz.Wake wrote:
Our fate now lies in other teams hands once again. Just like it did in the last ATC season, just like it did in SC2L. I've been wanting to write something here for quite a while, but I'm out of words. We had quite a journey, with a very disappointing start of this season into a remarkable comeback, a force of nature I surely did not see coming. With that being said, I apologize to our fans that we most likely did not make it this time either. There's a very good Swedish saying: He who joins the game, must take the consequences of the game. Not sure why so gloomy. Apart from being demolished by Major, the performance was very good: Winning against Teamliquid and Western Wolves, Vortix demolishing Quantic. The win against Empire-Bratok-Ence and Invicturs Gaming were anticipated, as were the losses against Team Acer (Innovation + MMA) and Axiom. The clanwar vs Millenium was incredibly close but in the end ForGG just proved to be too good. edit: Show nested quote +On November 12 2013 01:05 mikkmagro wrote:On November 12 2013 00:57 mouz.Wake wrote:
Our fate now lies in other teams hands once again. Just like it did in the last ATC season, just like it did in SC2L. I've been wanting to write something here for quite a while, but I'm out of words. We had quite a journey, with a very disappointing start of this season into a remarkable comeback, a force of nature I surely did not see coming. With that being said, I apologize to our fans that we most likely did not make it this time either. There's a very good Swedish saying: He who joins the game, must take the consequences of the game. Don't worry, even if you don't make it to the playoffs, I think most fans like myself are happy with the performance. Still the best foreigner team by far! (Sorry Acer, I love you too, but you did kind of get carried by Innovation..) What an obvious trollpost. MMA also did well more than his share of pulling the team!
It's not a troll post :< MMA did very well, but Innovation was sent out alot more, and got more wins for Acer.
Edit: in fact, Innovation was the second best player in the league after HyuN, and he played 22 matches for Acer, compared to MMA's 9.
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EPT
