[IEM] World Championship Day 3 - Page 165

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Talaris

Switzerland764 Posts

March 07 2013 18:08 GMT

#3281

On March 08 2013 02:29 Poopi wrote:

Show nested quote +

That's why the "korean" vs "foreign" is important.

Well, if you we want to generalize that much, you could also say that IM vs korean/foreigner is pretty imba atm - 94.5% win ratio for IM; so nerf IM plz ! :o)

Kergy

Peru2011 Posts

March 07 2013 18:18 GMT

#3282

hots is gonna level up the playing field foreginers will catch up guys!!!

)))

Giriath

Sweden2412 Posts

March 07 2013 18:25 GMT

#3283

Predictions:
Ro12
MaNa > Nerchio
PartinG > Stephano
Sting > Ret (may be close)
First > Dream (close)

Ro8
MVP > MaNa (may be close)
YoDa > PartinG
YongHwa > Sting
Violet > First

Ro4
YongHwa > Violet (may be close)
MVP > YoDa (close)

Finals
YongHwa > MVP (close)

MVP vs YoDa, YongHwa vs Violet and YongHwa vs MVP should be the best series in the tournament.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

March 07 2013 18:26 GMT

#3284

I implemented a BYE feature, so now you can simulate brackets like these.

http://aligulac.com/predict/sebracket/?bo=5,5,5,7&ps=13,0,26,58,54,0,5,10,20,0,64,208,8,0,109,39

                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
     Yonghwa     20.22%   15.56%   35.32%   28.89%    0.00%    
      viOLet     17.70%   11.70%   27.25%   43.36%    0.00%    
     PartinG     17.17%   10.06%    8.01%   13.44%   51.32%    
        YoDa      9.96%    8.75%   20.63%   60.66%    0.00%    
    Stephano      7.35%    7.67%   10.40%   25.90%   48.68%    
     Nerchio      7.06%   13.92%   29.31%   18.14%   31.56%    
       First      5.81%    5.23%    7.27%   29.68%   52.01%    
         Mvp      5.69%    6.97%   20.21%   67.14%    0.00%    
       Dream      4.60%    8.28%   12.16%   26.96%   47.99%    
       Sting      2.67%    7.67%   14.60%   59.05%   16.02%    
        MaNa      1.66%    3.74%   11.44%   14.72%   68.44%    
         Ret      0.10%    0.46%    3.40%   12.06%   83.98%

Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

Reasonable

Ukraine1432 Posts

March 07 2013 18:27 GMT

#3285

Koreans look quite dominant. Hardcore domination. Business as usual.

movac

Canada494 Posts

March 07 2013 18:31 GMT

#3286

we could potentially have all IM players in the semi finals.

739

Bearded Elder29904 Posts

March 07 2013 18:33 GMT

#3287

No idea why MaNa comparing to Stephano has so few percent to win, since he went out of his group with 4;1 score, same as ret, lol.

opterown

Australia54784 Posts

March 07 2013 18:34 GMT

#3288

On March 08 2013 03:33 739 wrote:
No idea why MaNa comparing to Stephano has so few percent to win, since he went out of his group with 4;1 score, same as ret, lol.

stats are mostly based on WoL

iSunrise

3302 Posts

March 07 2013 18:34 GMT

#3289

Wow, 14500 people on a rebroadcast. That has to be a record.

If you factor that into the already OK numbers from today, they easily have had 60-70 thousand viewers for this event today.

NKB

United Kingdom608 Posts

March 07 2013 18:34 GMT

#3290

Didn't see the games today, have only seen the score, but group D looked like the group slaughter.

Kasaraki

Denmark7115 Posts

March 07 2013 18:39 GMT

#3291

On March 08 2013 03:25 Giriath wrote:
Predictions:
Ro12
MaNa > Nerchio
PartinG > Stephano
Sting > Ret (may be close)
First > Dream (close)

Ro8
MVP > MaNa (may be close)
YoDa > PartinG
YongHwa > Sting
Violet > First

Ro4
YongHwa > Violet (may be close)
MVP > YoDa (close)

Finals
YongHwa > MVP (close)

MVP vs YoDa, YongHwa vs Violet and YongHwa vs MVP should be the best series in the tournament.

Those mirror my predictions, though YoDa might get taken out by PartinG in a close series, in which case Mvp will sweep PartinG, same ultimate final, but yeah.

Crownlol

United States3726 Posts

March 07 2013 18:40 GMT

#3292

On March 08 2013 01:42 TimENT wrote:

Show nested quote +

This is complete bullshit. People are excited to see new HotS strats. Mvp was playing like a genius. Now we are watching Stephano adapt, and everyone is enjoying it.

Thank you. I'm a bit of a Stephano fanboy myself, but he was playing against the greatest player in sc2 history (who also happens to have a very enjoyable style to watch). When MVP won with drops and picking Steph apart, there wasn't much whine. Only the "Widow Mines counter everything" is an acceptable whine.

TheDougler

Canada8309 Posts

March 07 2013 18:42 GMT

#3293

On March 08 2013 02:17 tribulator wrote:
Parting Stephano, oh man... Stephano just got out of the frying pan and tossed straight into a meat grinder. And even if he wins... Yoda.

Ouch.

Yoda's not great. But maybe I'm saying that cause he got Canada'd hard at IPL5.

TheDwf

France19747 Posts

March 07 2013 18:43 GMT

#3294

On March 08 2013 03:26 TheBB wrote:
I implemented a BYE feature, so now you can simulate brackets like these.

http://aligulac.com/predict/sebracket/?bo=5,5,5,7&ps=13,0,26,58,54,0,5,10,20,0,64,208,8,0,109,39

                   Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    Top 16    
---------------------------------------------------------------
     Yonghwa     20.22%   15.56%   35.32%   28.89%    0.00%    
      viOLet     17.70%   11.70%   27.25%   43.36%    0.00%    
     PartinG     17.17%   10.06%    8.01%   13.44%   51.32%    
        YoDa      9.96%    8.75%   20.63%   60.66%    0.00%    
    Stephano      7.35%    7.67%   10.40%   25.90%   48.68%    
     Nerchio      7.06%   13.92%   29.31%   18.14%   31.56%    
       First      5.81%    5.23%    7.27%   29.68%   52.01%    
         Mvp      5.69%    6.97%   20.21%   67.14%    0.00%    
       Dream      4.60%    8.28%   12.16%   26.96%   47.99%    
       Sting      2.67%    7.67%   14.60%   59.05%   16.02%    
        MaNa      1.66%    3.74%   11.44%   14.72%   68.44%    
         Ret      0.10%    0.46%    3.40%   12.06%   83.98%

Estimated by Aligulac. Twitter.

What's the point in trying to predict things on HotS based on (incomplete) WoL stats?

Crownlol

United States3726 Posts

March 07 2013 18:44 GMT

#3295

On March 08 2013 03:42 TheDougler wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yoda's not great. But maybe I'm saying that cause he got Canada'd hard at IPL5.

Yoda looked pretty strong yesterday.

Hopefully they'll rebroadcast the champ bracket at a reasonable hour for NA

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

March 07 2013 18:44 GMT

#3296

On March 08 2013 03:43 TheDwf wrote:

Show nested quote +

What's the point in trying to predict things on HotS based on (incomplete) WoL stats?

What's the point in trying to predict things across patches? Are you suggesting that absolutely no information carries over? The correlation is weaker, but it's not zero.

Kasaraki

Denmark7115 Posts

March 07 2013 18:49 GMT

#3297

On March 08 2013 03:42 TheDougler wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yoda's not great. But maybe I'm saying that cause he got Canada'd hard at IPL5.

YoDa had trouble with protoss all-ins in WoL... But with widowmines, he might be able to close this hole. His other matchups are really good though, and standard TvP he's fine as well.

TheDwf

France19747 Posts

March 07 2013 18:50 GMT

#3298

On March 08 2013 03:44 TheBB wrote:

Show nested quote +

What's the point in trying to predict things across patches? Are you suggesting that absolutely no information carries over? The correlation is weaker, but it's not zero.

I am suggesting that Mvp 1:3 Nerchio as a R2 median outcome based on what we saw so far seems really off and indicate a weak correlation indeed.

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

March 07 2013 18:50 GMT

#3299

On March 08 2013 03:44 Crownlol wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yoda looked pretty strong yesterday.

Hopefully they'll rebroadcast the champ bracket at a reasonable hour for NA

It's pretty much the same as every other day. Tomorrow's schedule

http://us.intelextrememasters.com/season7/world-championship-2013/

08:30 GMT (+00:00)
MaNa vs. Nerchio - Round of 16

09:55 GMT (+00:00)
PartinG vs. Stephano - Round of 16

11:20 GMT (+00:00)
Sting vs. ret - Round of 16

13:00 GMT (+00:00)
Dream vs. First - Round of 16

16:00 GMT (+00:00)
Quarterfinal - #2

Another random gap in the schedule at 9/10 EST again like the schedule had today which caused all that omg Mvp vs Stephano not being shown!? so I'm guessing Quarterfinal 1 is at that time

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

March 07 2013 18:53 GMT

#3300

On March 08 2013 03:50 TheDwf wrote:

Show nested quote +

I am suggesting that Mvp 1:3 Nerchio as a R2 median outcome based on what we saw so far seems really off and indicate a weak correlation indeed.

Well of course. Congratulations, you can use your head. I'm not sure what we are discussing here.

On February 03 2013 02:50 Heartland wrote:
I think what's cool and great about this work is that it does what statistics are good for. They give you the ability to create data and then to look at it critically. But maybe people in this thread confuse statistics with the Truth with a capital p (sic). That's not the way you should read statistics, whether in the morning paper or on TL. Rather statistics can make us think about deeper connections that we haven't seen before, twist and turn around concepts and play with them through statistical models. They're not meant to say "Scarlett should be in Code S." Obviously there are flaws or issues with these stats, but it's common for statistics everywhere. What you can do with that is to add or change some modifier, let it meet other forms of reasoning or to extrapolate on what we take for granted.

So yeah, tl;dr, lies, damn lies and statistics are the case with all stats but it's not the point of stats.

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