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I will be watching this tournament, this time! Good luck to everyone, go Naniwa! :D
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Pumped for this. Can't wait for the headwear.
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On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^
ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. I don't claim that it's perfect, but there you have it. ToD is pretty good.
Also, there could be some relative variation in the lower numbers because this is Monte Carlo simulation, not exact numbers. It doesn't make sense to directly compare players with so low percentages.
What I would take out of that list is that Stephano and Violet are the biggest favourites, and that Stc, Polt, Crank and Bomber could also take it. Other winners are extremely unlikely.
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On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database.
Which just goes to show how bad the Elo ranking system is.
Plus, it hasnt been updated from MLG, where Naniwa had a very good run
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On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. I don't claim that it's perfect, but there you have it. ToD is pretty good. Also, there could be some relative variation in the lower numbers because this is Monte Carlo simulation, not exact numbers. It doesn't make sense to directly compare players with so low percentages. What I would take out of that list is that Stephano and Violet are the biggest favourites, and that Stc, Polt, Crank and Bomber could also take it. Other winners are extremely unlikely.
Stephano isn't a favorite to win that in my opinion. Polt, Bomber, and Violet are the more likely winners.
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My prediction is Azubu.Violet to win.
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On November 10 2012 22:26 lykkekage wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. Which just goes to show how bad the Elo ranking system is. Plus, it hasnt been updated from MLG, where Naniwa had a very good run
Elo is a rating system, not a ranking system, and it's not bad. It has deficiencies, but TLPD Elo is best we have for SC2.
And yeah, the lack of updates grinds my gears. 
Not sure what to do about it. Maybe I can apply for a job. ^^
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On November 10 2012 22:28 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. I don't claim that it's perfect, but there you have it. ToD is pretty good. Also, there could be some relative variation in the lower numbers because this is Monte Carlo simulation, not exact numbers. It doesn't make sense to directly compare players with so low percentages. What I would take out of that list is that Stephano and Violet are the biggest favourites, and that Stc, Polt, Crank and Bomber could also take it. Other winners are extremely unlikely. Stephano isn't a favorite to win that in my opinion. Polt, Bomber, and Violet are the more likely winners.
Depends how you word it. 
I would agree that it's more likely that Polt, Bomber or Violet win than that Stephano win.
I would not agree that Polt, Bomber and Violet wins are each, individually, more likely than a Stephano win.
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how long until it starts?
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On November 10 2012 22:42 Demonidze wrote:
how long until it starts?
I'm pretty sure it starts in 3 hours.
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On November 10 2012 22:35 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 22:28 Godwrath wrote:On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. I don't claim that it's perfect, but there you have it. ToD is pretty good. Also, there could be some relative variation in the lower numbers because this is Monte Carlo simulation, not exact numbers. It doesn't make sense to directly compare players with so low percentages. What I would take out of that list is that Stephano and Violet are the biggest favourites, and that Stc, Polt, Crank and Bomber could also take it. Other winners are extremely unlikely. Stephano isn't a favorite to win that in my opinion. Polt, Bomber, and Violet are the more likely winners. Depends how you word it. I would agree that it's more likely that Polt, Bomber or Violet win than that Stephano win. I would not agree that Polt, Bomber and Violet wins are each, individually, more likely than a Stephano win.
It's what i am implying. Any of those will trump Stephano
Didn't you see yesterday's games Stephano vs lucifron ?
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No, I didn't. We shall see.
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TB's greatness is wholly portrayed in all his overblown photographic grandeur, while Naniwa's picture... well.
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On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
qxc: 0.000%
So harsh on qxc :p
Let's see if your top 6 holds up.
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On November 10 2012 22:26 lykkekage wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. Which just goes to show how bad the Elo ranking system is. Plus, it hasnt been updated from MLG, where Naniwa had a very good run
The Elo is pretty good, it just doesn't work as well in Starcraft.
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Elo is rubbish. You judge how well a player will do in a tournament by recent performances, what their best and worst Matchups are, what race their opponents are and their respective best and worst Matchups, and the maps being played.
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TSL.Polt is such a cutie. Would love to see him take this, although obviously he pretty much always seems to be an underdog.
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On November 10 2012 23:07 Incomplet wrote:
Elo is rubbish. You judge how well a player will do in a tournament by recent performances, what their best and worst Matchups are, what race their opponents are and their respective best and worst Matchups, and the maps being played.
Elo does judge a player by recent performances. My system also does take into account their matchups, the opponent's races and their matchup stats too. So everything seems fine except for the maps. I'm just trying to do it in a strictly objective manner.
Elo has problems, but those are not it.
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On November 10 2012 22:56 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On November 10 2012 22:35 TheBB wrote:On November 10 2012 22:28 Godwrath wrote:On November 10 2012 22:22 TheBB wrote:On November 10 2012 21:55 Fjodorov wrote:On November 10 2012 19:56 TheBB wrote:
Anyway, here are some numbers for y'all. If my calculations are correct, the MLP season 3 premiere should finish just before this tournament starts, yielding optimal viewing experiences for all involved.
There is a 2 in 3 chance that a Zerg will win this tournament (Stephano and Violet.)
There is also almost a 2 in 3 chance that a Korean will win.
Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 36.162%
viOLet: 32.284%
TheStC: 13.646%
Polt: 7.286%
CranK: 5.296%
Bomber: 4.296%
Sheth: 0.350%
Hawk: 0.180%
BabyKnight: 0.166%
ToD: 0.164%
GanZi: 0.080%
NaNiwa: 0.046%
Ret: 0.028%
ThorZaIN: 0.010%
Axslav: 0.006%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.280 rounds (top 3)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.981 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 3.803 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.628 rounds (top 4)
Bomber: 2.834 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.887 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.639 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.453 rounds (top 12)
BabyKnight: 1.322 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.280 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.151 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 0.998 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.910 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.482 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.419 rounds (top 16) ToD more likely to win than Naniwa? Yeah i think you missed a class ^^ ToD has 45 more Elo points than Naniwa in the international database. I don't claim that it's perfect, but there you have it. ToD is pretty good. Also, there could be some relative variation in the lower numbers because this is Monte Carlo simulation, not exact numbers. It doesn't make sense to directly compare players with so low percentages. What I would take out of that list is that Stephano and Violet are the biggest favourites, and that Stc, Polt, Crank and Bomber could also take it. Other winners are extremely unlikely. Stephano isn't a favorite to win that in my opinion. Polt, Bomber, and Violet are the more likely winners. Depends how you word it. I would agree that it's more likely that Polt, Bomber or Violet win than that Stephano win. I would not agree that Polt, Bomber and Violet wins are each, individually, more likely than a Stephano win. It's what i am implying. Any of those will trump Stephano Didn't you see yesterday's games Stephano vs lucifron ?
agree, Lucifron trashed Stephano yesterday. so excited to see how he will perform today.
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Canada16217 Posts
On November 10 2012 23:21 Ryka wrote:
TSL.Polt is such a cutie. Would love to see him take this, although obviously he pretty much always seems to be an underdog.
Polt the underdog? Not at this tournament.
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EPT
