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My general rule of thumb when I'm worried about some kind of 1/2 base all in is to only half saturate your newest expansion and then start massing units. So if they stay on 1 base, drone to 36 (24 in main and 12 at nat).
As most people will tell you, macro is the most important thing in lower leagues. So if you want to focus on macro and not spend too much time trying to scout/infer his build from limited info (i.e. sentry count) just over defend so you don't die to cheese or early aggression. That is, don't get greedy with drones, make a few spines at your front, always make a spore even if you don't see stargate/dts. That will let you survive the early game and let your superior macro seal the victory in the late game.
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Practice, Practice, Practice! I'd say that scouting a single ling up their ramp can tell you a lot. No particular hurry, maybe 4-5 min or so. You'd have beat the terran long before he got banshees if you'd seen his collection of marines & gotten banelings rather than roaches. (Also that game you didn't put up an evo chamber--+1 armor would have helped early and a spore would have won you breathing room if he lived long enough for the banshee). And on the Metalopolis map the Protoss army ran right by the watch tower and they weren't greeted spines when they finally arrived at the base (lings get shredded by zlots bad). But you'll get there, I can feel it.
For the SWARM!
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Thanks for the help!
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Since I am in a class right now I didn't get a chance to watch to replays, but I will still try to help out on the topic of early aggression.
4 Queens early on I find really helps - Not only are they good for transfuses as well as serving as tanks, but spreading creep is super important for fending off aggression. Spines + 4 Queens with transfuse is phenomenal, couple that with lings and/or roaches should be able to defend any all-in.
I like the half saturation rule - If you scout that your opponent has not expanded but you have, you should probably cut drones very soon and start producing units and spines. Over-droning is a very common mistake for people who play Zerg, I still do it accidentally and even pros do it.
For Banshee and other air prevention - The 4 Queens help massively as well. Don't be afraid to incorporate an early evo if you are trying to be super safe. Early upgrades + the ability to throw down a spore or two in each base if you are scared is very helpful.
Overlord Positioning - You need to position 2 - 3 overlords around their base at key points, and if you cannot get a read of what your opponent is doing with ling pokes, send in the overlords from different directions to their base so you can see what you need.
ZvZ is another story - Scouting at 9 supply is practically essential for known what your opponent is doing, especially if you hatch first. The main rule of thumb is to keep about a 4 - 5 drone lead on your opponent, the only way to know this is to keep an overlord behind his natural if possible (depending on the map) or poking in with a ling just to check his drone saturation, and passively scouting his tech.
Not sure if I missed anything but just making sure there are no holes in your defense is the key. Again, you need make sure it is safe to drone. Scout, scout, scout, scout!! Having just made a round of drones and seeing your opponent move out of his base is not a very fun situation to be in
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First off I want to say that what you are trying to do is great. Keep it up. That is: if you can macro while the opponent mounts an attack, and then even just barely hold off that attack you will be so far ahead that you will be able to crush them.
Vs. MAMATRICO: This one was a simple matter of not knowing what was coming. You generally want to scout with your 12th drone, and then re-scout the base at about the 7 minute mark. If you can get an overlord in place at 7 minutes you are in real good shape, but if not run a ling up to the wall and see what you can. Then leave a ling just outside the opponents base. Those few extra seconds of warning can go a long way. Then try to get some more scouting, preferably a overseer/changeling into the base at about 12 minutes (for things like banshees). You were real close on this one, just a couple of scouting adjustments and you would have had him.
Vs. Maurizio With this one the scouting was a little better so good job. I think you would have been fine with this one if: your ling speed was done a few seconds earlier, and you wouldn't have miss-clicked at the 9:43 mark. You may have also been just a little too focused on macro this time. You were taking multiple gas and your third with out lings speed or a roach warren done. That might be just a little too risky for the lower leagues where we so often see a "rush" style play from our opponents. Earlier ling speed and either a roach warren or a couple spines would have probably been a better investment than the extra gas and the third. even if you had gotten that third up, you wouldn't have been able to protect it and saturate it at the same time.
Vs. Yagami Ok he pulled off a really good attack. Strong pressure on the front, warp prism in the back. And he was able drop stalkers on the move from his prism. Pretty good play for silver league. Would have been hard to hold off for most players. But, you seem dead set on getting that third. Even taking it before the rocks are gone, which will hurt way more than it helps in the end. If you want a 3rd hatch for production then take one you your main. If you want it for macro then you need to: Check for income pressure by scouting the base. Take the third after the rocks are gone. Be able to protect it. The pros are doing 3 hatches fast, even 3 hatch before gas, but we aren't pros. We need to play just a little more safe.
Vs Squille Hey man, this was just a normal ZvZ. fast, early pressure, rock/paper/scissors style play where one bane can win or lose the game. You did fine here with this match up. IMO zvz is the hardest matchup to improve on. It is easier to improve on the terran and the toss because you are playing against the player AND there race. In zvs the races are equal so it is just player vs player. Don't worry about this game.
So I hope that helps a little. I'm not a high level player but I have gone through the exact process you are going through now. keep it up. Make some general changes to your scouting and timing of that thrid (vs units and tech) but don't get too greedy.
glhf
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vs terrans i like when zergs go 4 queens and 2 spines so even with 1 base all in its very hard to break
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