[D]ZvZ: A GSL History of the Blind 15 Hatch

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 12 2011 20:01 GMT

ZvZ: A GSL History of the Blind 15 Hatch

Introduction
I labeled this as [D] because I felt it should go in the strategy forum, although I guess this may read more as a blog. I hope for this to turn into a discussion on the nature of blind 15 hatchery opener and its true viability in the mirror matchup. Anyway, over the GSL free weekend I decided to watch and take some notes on pretty much every zvz that has been played from GSL open season 1 up until the most recent up/down matches in GSL August. What follows is what I consider to be the most interesting part of my notes, which revolves around the blind 15 hatch opener in ZvZ. (Luckily for you guys, most of the games I'll be talking about are available as free VOD on gomtv.net.)

My own personal belief is that opening with a blind 15 hatchery is either extremely risky or downright silly. Watching the zvz matchup evolve over some hours of reviewing GSL vods really showed me some interesting insights, and I'll share them now as I chronicle the path of ZvZ and blind 15 hatch openers:

* - requires gomtv season ticket

GSL Open Season 1
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With a map pool that included Steppes of War, Delta Quadrant, and featuring close positions on Lost Temple and Metalopolis, really the only times one would even consider going 15 hatchery in zvz here would be on Kulas Ravine, Scrap Station or when you have OL position from close air on Metal or LT. Unfortunately, there was only one such set of ZvZ this season and it featured none of those maps.

At this time in ZvZ, the maps were so small with such open naturals and short rush distances that going 15 hatchery was a rare and extremely greedy opener.

GSL Open Season 2
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Ro16 IMNesTea vs oGsTheWind - G1 - Blistering Sands - link
This is the first ZvZ match that IMNestea played in the GSL and where the legend began with him having 100% win rate vs zerg (at least for some months). Blistering Sands, a 2 player map with destructible rocks at the back door is an extremely risky map to 15 hatch on. Yet NesTea bravely decides to do it anyway, and without drone scouting.

Unfortunately for him, TheWind opted for a 13gas/12pool baneling semi-all-in. Now, if you don't remember or never watched this game, you might think "now how could NesTea have possibly won this game, on this map, against that build?" The short answer is he didn't. He lost half of his drones, had no defensive units up against a solitary baneling that was about to seal the game. TheWind, knowing NesTea had roaches on the way but not sure how far along the eggs were, pulled his single baneling back to meet up with 4 additional lings, and by the time he returned, the roaches had spawned, sniped the baneling, and NesTea went from basically a build order loss to securing a mid-game win with far superior mechanics.

GSL Open Season 3
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Ro64 TSLFruitDealer vs Tosyad - G2 - Jungle Basin - link*
In this, just the second ZvZ featuring blind 15 hatchery opener, we get to see another game greatly supporting its case as a standard in the matchup. As the maps get larger, it's seeming to be a safer opening. Jungle Basin, a recent addition to GSL from the previous season, is unique from other maps in the pool in that its natural is actually located behind, rather than in front of, the main base. This makes 15 hatchery both extremely tempting and very difficult to punish.

Tosyad, an obscure and teamless zerg player who eeked through the qualifiers, suffered a pretty depressing loss in game 1 of the series when he threw away a huge advantage by over-committing to his ling/bling aggression seemed to have lost steam as the match wore on. He opts to do an 8pool on the map with the longest main to main rush distance at the time against FruitDealer's 15 hatchery, tucked away behind his own main.

What follows is honestly a pretty pitiful ling engagement by Tosyad, although it seemed at the time that it was FruitDealer's godlike defense that led him to surviving what otherwise would have been a sure defeat. Artosis is heard saying "This is the best drone micro in the world."

Even on paper, 18 drones vs 6+2 lings is not something that should really scare anyone. Upon denying this aggression, FruitDealer cruises to an easy 2-0 and it starts to look like blind 15 hatchery might be safe versus just about anything on non-shoebox maps.

Ro32 IMNesTea vs FnaticSEn - G1 - Lost Temple - link
In its third showcase in the GSL, we see competing blind 15 hatch openers on what turns out to be close positions on Lost Temple. What follows is more or less a mirror game in the opener, although it's notable because of what Artosis can be quoted for saying near the start of this game: "Only early pool baneling is bad if you can micro drones." And up until this point, at least judging from the very brief history of the GSL, he seemed to be right.

GSL January
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Ro16 IMNestea vs oGsZenio - G1 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link
In this game, we see blind 15 hatchery vs 14gas/14pool showcased for the first time in the GSL. Artosis explains to the masses how these two builds differ and how 15 hatch offers superior larva production, so if unpunished, it can almost turn into a free win on a map like Xel'Naga.

Zenio opts to followup with very hard ling/bling aggression, and NesTea's speedlings into fast roaches are able to hold it off and force the mid-game transitions. From here, we just see a basic ZvZ roach war where NesTea shows off why he's the best Zerg player in the world.

At this point, it's beginning to become clear why blind 15 hatchery is becoming a standard for many. It relies on mechanics vs 14/14, micro vs early pool, and if you're good enough and the map isn't very small, it seems that you can win versus anything the opponent can do...

GSL March
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Up/Down IMNesTea vs LeenockfOu - G1 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link
Here Artosis does a great job explaining the state of ZvZ in the opener of game 1, explaining how most feel that it's a Rock-Scissors-Paper matchup between Hatch first, 14/14 and 9 pool.

Both players open similarly until NesTea goes for roaches while Leenock goes for banelings. The rest is unrelated so I'll head right into...

[Up/Down IMNesTea vs LeenockfOu - G2 - Crossfire - link
Once again we have competing, blind 15 hatch openers. But there's one key difference in this game--NesTea hatches at an open gold base. This game is, at least in my opinion, the first of several great examples of why failing to drone scout can and will cost you the game.

NesTea's decision to take the gold was essentially a build order win because Leenock doesn't drone scout. In fact, by relying on his overlord to spot NesTea's natural, he mistakenly assumes that NesTea is doing some 1-base build, and proceeds to overreact defensively and fall out of the game very quickly.

Leenock scouted the gold expansion around 5:00 into the game, and spent 4 banelings needlessly as well as traded zerglings to snipe this expansion only after two full injection cycles. NesTea still got all the larva he needed from it, used all of them, and baited a tremendous overreaction from Leenock who put himself in a terrible position by feeling that his only option was to force that gold to immediately die. He wasted banelings and couldn't drone at all, and then was ultimately forced to drone as NesTea followed up with an all-in.

GSL World Championship Seoul (April)
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KORvWORLD FXOmOOnGLade vs STJuly - Metalopolis - link
July opens blind 15 hatch 14 pool in cross positions against mOONglade's 14/14 bling pressure. July drops a fast warren but has a late gas and so is barely able to defend in time with roaches and zerglings. From here the game transitions into a typical July game (re: slugfest).

KORvWORLD mTwDimaga vs STJuly - Shakuras Plateau - link
This game is special among all of these I mention because it actually doesn't feature a blind 15 hatchery. I include it because in re-watching it I noticed something very important--Dimaga actually intended to open 15 hatchery, but he drone scouted on 9 supply and saw July's 10 pool. He then responds by canceling his 14th drone, and going 13 pool 12 gas. I firmly believe Dimaga would have been hard-pressed to survive against July's 10 pool pressure had he not drone scouted and responded accordingly.

The rest of the game devolves into reactionary ling/bling wars but is a great example of an aborted 15 hatchery open where drone scouting really did make the difference in the outcome. It should also be noted that they spawned close positions (top left and bottom right) which allowed Dimaga to scout the 10 pool before having to 15 hatch by 9 scouting. Had they spawned long cross positions (bottom left and top right), Dimaga's scout would likely not have made it there in time, and he would have had to open 14 pool, making his ling defense more difficult.

KORvWORLD mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - Terminus RE - link
Terminus was added the previous month to the GSL map pool partly in response to the number of all-ins. The hope was that in adding such an obviously macro-oriented map, that cheese would be heavily disfavored. I mention this as a foreshadow to a future game, but this is the first time the map is showcased in GSL ZvZ.

Dimaga drone scouts on 9 and opts for 16 hatch 16 pool opener. Despite sending a drone scout out at 1:00 game time, he doesn't find NesTea's natural expansion until 2:30, 10 seconds after he hatches. NesTea opens with a blind 15 hatchery, and what follows is a pretty standard hatch v hatch ZvZ.

mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - G2 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link
This game, NesTea's first GSL loss, marks the beginning of a very key shift in blind 15 hatchery as an opener. Dimaga's build is very crude, 10 pool with 6 lings and 8 drones, along with an offensive spine crawler.

Now in this game NesTea had some pretty awful micro by any current standards, and it's a bit unfortunate because between Dimaga's execution and NesTea's poor micro really mask the power of the 10 pool against 15 hatchery. But it's also important to note that at this point in SC2, zergs weren't very practiced in either executing or defending 10 pool against 15 hatchery.

mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - G3 - Terminus RE - link
Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in cross positions in this game, and honestly if you have the chance I recommend watching this game if you haven't seen it. While not germane to this thread, it's one of the best standard ZvZs the GSL has seen, with nearly flawless execution from Dimaga and NesTea.

GSL May
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Ro32 IMLosirA vs ZeNEXKyrix - G1 - Metalopolis - link*
On its face, this match is probably the strongest support for the blind 15 hatchery opening. Around this time, 15 hatch was becoming very popular as the opening of choice in ZvZ in just about every situation.

In cross positions on Metalopolis, and without the fear of close rush distances anymore, LosirA opts to open with a blind 15 hatchery. In typical Kyrix style, he drops an 8 pool and promptly sends all his drones with the initial 6 lings. Artosis is quoted as saying "Losira's dead 100%" and instinctively so. If an early pool with lings is dangerous, surely pulling every single drone would maximize dps and be the most difficult possible all-in to hold.

LosirA features some godlike micro and is somehow able to hold. Kyrix chases around the drones and never really has a chance to engage as they run off creep and all over the place. The lings come out, LosirA has more stuff, the engagement happens, the crowd goes wild, and with Kyrix suddenly having no drones, abruptly ends. Unfortunately for LosirA though, he'd need to pull the tricks out a second time some minutes later.

Ro32 IMLosirA vs ZeNEXKyrix - G2 - Crevasse - link*
Seemingly baffled by LosirA's other-worldly all-in defense, and not to be denied, Kyrix opts for exactly the same opening. Meanwhile, LosirA has no qualms about blindly opening 15 hatchery on Crevasse, an even larger map than Metalopolis and featuring a natural located behind the main.

This time, however, Kyrix decides to focus the spawning pool, giving LosirA time to continue mining, take free potshots on the drones/lings (killing half of Kyrix's workers), and have plenty of time for his own lings to spawn. The pool dies, but with broodlings, zerglings, and drones in superior numbers, LosirA is able to finish off Kyrix's battered force for a pretty easy win.

This marks the third time that blind 15 hatchery has held vs an 8 pool, twice with all drones. The conclusion is seemingly inescapable--blind 15 hatchery is safe vs early pool with good micro.

Ro32 TSLFruitDealer vs CheckPrime - G1 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link*
Just two days after LosirA's two miracle defenses, blind 15 hatchery seems like the opener of choice among pros now. In this game FruitDealer opts for it, while Check takes the more conservative 14/14 route. What follows is more or less an ordinary game, and FruitDealer is able to secure a win.

Ro16 TSLFruitDealer vs IMNesTea - G1 - Terminus RE - link
At least up to this point in the GSL, I feel like this set marks the most compelling evidence for the susceptibility of the blind 15 hatchery opener. Recalling the series in the previous month's World Championship, NesTea opts to open with a blind 15 hatchery on the largest, most macro-friendly map in the pool. Meanwhile, FruitDealer, out of practice and not interested in playing a long macro game against the new king of zerg, goes for an 8 pool + drone scout.

NesTea again shows some indecision and generally poor response to a build that is seemingly less aggressive than Kyrix's. In fact, while the drones and lings dance around in NesTea's main, FruitDealer can be seen actually droning behind it. He hadn't intended to force a quick end to the game, but a misstep by NesTea turns what should have been a few drone kills into crippling damage. He miffed an opportunity to surround and finish off a building spinecrawler which finished and ultimately killed several of his drones.

The game goes on a while longer, but this loss ultimately gets chalked up to a poor micro defense.

Ro16 TSLFruitDealer vs IMNesTea - G2 - Dual Sight - link
NesTea, coming off only his third GSL ZvZ loss and actively trying to defend his crown as the best zerg in the world introduces an improved version of Dimaga's 10 pool ling/drone all-in that gave him his first GSL loss.

Proxying a spine crawler puts the nail in the coffin this game, with FruitDealer unable to delay by either running drones off creep or by engaging in drone dancing (due to NesTea's superior numbers). Further, NesTea, with four drones at home, can continuously produce zerglings to reinforce this push, meaning that every 15 seconds, a new zergling pair will add to his numbers.

In this game, we see the first of what will ultimately prove to be a complete build order counter to blind 15 hatchery--10 poo, double extractor trick into drone, 12 overlord, drone scout. Upon scouting the 15 hatch, send lings and 8/12 drones. This combination of 8 lings and 8 drones is quite simply not possible to defend off of blind 15 hatchery with just 16 drones and an incomplete pool.

Ro16 TSLFruitDealer vs IMNesTea - G3 - Metalopolis - link
After securing complimentary early pool victories over blind 15 hatch in games 1 and 2, both FruitDealer and NesTea opt to blind 15 hatch in what is otherwise a standard showcase of mirror openers in a mirror matchup.

GSL Super Tournament (June)
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Ro64 SlayerSMin vs STJuly - G1/G2 - Crevasse/Terminus RE - link
This match doesn't contribute anything to this discussion other than that the first two games showcase both players opening with a blind 15 hatchery. It's also apparent that July's understanding of SC2, after only recently switching to SC2 from BW a few months earlier,is not very strong yet.

Ro64 oGsCezanne vs IMNesTea - G1 - Metalopolis - link
For the second time, NesTea showcases his improved version of Dimaga's 10 pool drone all-in. This game deserves special mention because Cezanne actually drone scouts when he lays down the 15 hatchery, so it's not blind. Cezanne arrives at NesTea's base at 2:30 in time to see a completed pool and eggs in production. He immediately cancels his hatchery and drops a spawning pool.

Had it not been for a complete lack of micro by NesTea on his initial 6 lings, Cezanne would have been hard pressed to not come away crippled from this attack. However, NesTea's 7th and 8 lings were able to pick off a few weakened drones while forcing Cezanne to make more lings than he wanted, allowing NesTea to drone behind the attack and stay comfortably ahead all game. His speed was faster, he had more drones, and double queens protecting his ramp from all-in by 5:00 game time.

Following up on this opener, NesTea secures and maintains a hefty advantage and uses superior mechanics and execution to double Cezanne's roach count for the ultimate mid-game engagement. In this game we finally get to see the overwhelming power of this economic 10pool opener against 15 hatchery in a macro game.

Ro64 oGsCezanne vs IMNesTea - G2 - Tal'Darim Altar - link*
NesTea and Cezanne both open with a blind 15 hatchery and basically mirror each other until the mid-game, whereupon NesTea opts for a Spire and Cezanne goes for a roach/hydra/infestor timing. He's able to nydus into NesTea's main and deliver NesTea his first non-early game ZvZ loss.

GSL July
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Ro32 IMNesTea vs STJuly - G1 - Crevasse - link*
This game features a somewhat uncharacteristic 14/14 opener by NesTea against a blind 15 hatch by July. What follows is nothing too out of the ordinary until the late game, and if you have time I recommend watching this game if you like hot Ultralisk on Ultralisk action.

Ro8 IMNesTea vs ZeNEXCoca - G1 - Dual Sight - link
For the second time, NesTea exploits the blind 15 hatchery opener by hatching at an open gold expansion. As did Leenock in GSL March on Crossfire, Coca relied on his first Overlord to see no hatchery at the natural and mistakenly assumed Nestea was doing some kind of one-base all-in. He overreacted while NesTea comfortably droned and played defensively, securing what was basically a free win. As was the case against Leenock, the Coca's failure to scout the base of NesTea resulted in basically a build order loss.

Ro8 IMNesTea vs ZeNEXCoca - G3 - Bel'Shir Beach - link*
Fearing an all-in, NesTea opted for an extremely conservative game 2 opener and eeked out a clean victory. But in game 3, he opts for a blind 15 hatchery against Coca's 14/14. What follows is nothing too out of the ordinary, but if you're looking for a game to watch that showcases hatch first vs 14/14, I recommend checking out this game when you have time.

Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G1 - Bel'Shir Beach - link
This entire match is an educational showcase of blind 15 hatch. In game 1, both players open with blind 15 hatch, and what follows is probably the best ZvZ game to date in the GSL.

Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G2 - Dual Sight - link*
For the first time, we see what happens when NesTea's economic 10 pool stacks up against the tried-and-true 14/14. Upon seeing no hatchery at LosirA's natural with his 12 drone scout, NesTea transitions into what ends up being a highly aggressive but ultimately macro-oriented game. If you are curious just how well economic 10 pool fares vs 14/14, this is the best GSL game available.

NesTea has to rely on some solid mechanics to make up for LosirA's much earlier speed, and must stay one-basing for longer without any map control. Following up on an aggressive speedling timing to help secure his own natural expansion, NesTea responds with a roach wall that effectively nullifies LosirA's intended baneling counterattack, and from there the game turns into a mid-game slug-fest.

Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G3 - Tal'Darim Altar - link*
Both players opt for blind 15 hatch openers and NesTea shows the mid-game mutalisk contain he expects to become the future of ZvZ.

Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G4 - Xel'Naga Fortress - link*
Down 0-3, LosirA opts to open blind 15 hatchery. Meanwhile, NesTea, for the second time in the finals, opens with his economic 10 pool double extractor trick. Upon scouting LosirA's hatchery, he immediately sends 8/12 drones and 8 lings, knowing full-well that he has won the game from the moment he leaves his base.

Artosis mistakenly thinks that this is the same or very similar to the 8 pool drone all-in that LosirA saw twice versus Kyrix in GSL May, holding both times. As the drama unfolds, LosirA's drones, unable to delay or openly engage, are picked apart to seal NesTea's undefeated run to his third GSL Championship.

GSL August
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Ro32 IMNesTea vs ZeNEXKyrix - G1 - Antiga Shipyard - link
NesTea opens with a blind 15 hatchery to Kyrix's 14/14. What follows is a nice example of NesTea's new mutalisk style mid-game in ZvZ.

Code A Ro16 CheckPrime vs MVPSniper - G1 - Daybreak - link
Sniper opens with a blind 15 hatch on the newest macro-favored GSL map addition. Unbeknownst to him, Check opens with 10 pool baneling, and despite his best efforts to snap defeat from the jaws of victory, Check is able to follow up with a second, crippling attack, ultimately securing what should have been almost a build order win.

Up/Down IMLosirA vs ZeNEXKyrix - Tal'Darim Altar - link*
LosirA opts for blind 15 hatch against Kyrix's safer 14/14 speedling expand.

Up/Down IMLosirA vs CheckPrime - G1 - Daybreak - link*
Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in what turns into a very highly recommended macro game.

Up/Down IMLosirA vs CheckPrime - G2 - Antiga Shipyard - link*
LosirA opens with a blind 15 hatchery while CheckPrime opts for 10 pool baneling. Unlike Check's Code A Ro16 G1 vs Sniper, he doesn't bungle his banelings, so despite LosirA going for the most conservative variant of 15 hatch by following up with 14/14 gas pool, he meets a very swift end and falls without much resistance.

Up/Down IMLosirA vs CheckPrime - G3 - Metalopolis - link*
Despite suffering almost a build order loss against Check in their first tiebreak match, LosirA again opens with a blind 15 hatchery. Check opts for a 15gas/14pool and LosirA flips on boss mode to handily outplay Check to conclude a record-setting double-playoff Up/Down series featuring 15 sets (as opposed to the standard 7).

=================================

Some Relevant GSL Statistics
IMNesTea
non15 Hatch vs. blind 15 Hatch: 6-0 (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, july, coca, losira WIN)
blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch: 4-2* (thewind*, dimaga, zenio, kyrix WIN; dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)
blind 15 Hatch vs blind 15 Hatch: 5-2 (sen, leenock, coca, fruitdealer, losira WIN; dimaga, cezanne LOSS)
with cheese: 6-2* (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, coca, losira, thewind* WIN, dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)
*The game vs oGsTheWind almost certainly should have been a loss.

Overall ZvZ
blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch 11-10
blind 15 Hatch vs 14/14 5-1 (1-0 vs 15/14)
blind 15 Hatch vs 10 pool (any) 0-6

List of games with hatch first and drone scout:
- cezanne v nestea 13 scout 15h v 10p 2ET (doesn't see pool until hatch is down)
- dimaga v july 9 scout 13p/12g v 10 pool (scouts 10pool, cancels 14th drone, intended but aborted 15h)
- dimaga v nestea 9 scout 16h v 15h (doesn't see 15h before hatching)

List of games featuring blind 15 hatch opener:
15h win (vs non 15h)
- july vs moonglade 14/14 baneling
- nestea vs dimaga 9scout 16hatch 16 pool (scout doesnt find 15hatch until after 16hatch)
-nestea vs thewind* 13/12 baneling
-fruitdealer vs tosyad 8pool 8lings
-nestea vs zenio 14/14
-losira v kyrix 8pool 6ling 8drone all-in
-losira v kyrix 8pool 6ling 8drone all-in
-fruitdealer v check 14/14
-nestea v kyrix 14/14
-losira v kyrix 14/14
-losira v check 15/14

15h vs 15h
-nestea vs sen
-nestea vs leenock
-dimaga vs nestea
-nestea v cezanne
-fruitdealer v nestea
-min v july
-nestea v coca
-nestea v losira
-losira v check

15h loss (vs non 15h standard)
-leenock vs nestea gold 15h
-nestea v dimaga 10pool 8drone 6ling +spine
-nestea v fruitdealer 8pool 6ling spine
-fruitdealer v nestea 10pool 2et 8drone 8ling +spine
-cezanne v nestea 10pool 2et 8ling (13 drone scout)
-july v nestea 14/14
-coca v nestea gold 15h
-losira v nestea 10p 2et 8drone 8ling +spine
-sniper v check 10p baneling
-losira v check 10p baneling

Closing Comments
I've never felt comfortable taking a blind 15 hatch in ZvZ. When I do 15 hatch, I almost always send a drone scout. There have been many debates on this board about whether you need to drone scout in ZvZ, and I felt that in posting this chronicle of GSL ZvZ matches featuring blind 15 hatch, we might better understand and appreciate how and why it came to be the accepted opener that it is.

Opening with a 15 hatchery without drone scouting (or having OL vision from close air positions) is always risky. Sometimes it's a calculated risk and sometimes it's a foolish one. Even NesTea, currently considered the best zerg player in the world, has only a maginal win percentage with 15 hatchery (7-3, more likely 6-4) and all of his blind 15 hatch losses have come to players who are currently in Code A or B (and Dimaga).

On the other hand, by exploiting the blind 15 hatchery opener, NesTea currently stands undefeated at 6-0. While we should rightly consider him the best zerg player in the world, we should also be quick to point out that his capitalization on this risky opener has thus far played a key role in his ZvZ success.

And while I won't go so far as to say that 10 pool baneling is a build order win to blind 15 hatchery, it's very, very close. I will say that the economic 10 pool (double extractor trick) is a hard build order win to blind 15 hatchery though. Overall, 10 pool is 6-0 against blind 15 hatchery, with NesTea owning three (1 pool 2ETD), Check two (10 pool baneling), and Dimaga 1 (10 pool 8 drone semi-all-in). It's also worth mentioning that the solitary loss 10 pool has in the GSL against hatch first is July v Dimaga from the GSL World Championship series, where Dimaga scouted on 9 and in time to never lay down the hatchery, and was a very back and forth game.

Lastly, while 10 pool (both 2ETD and baneling) remains a somewhat cloudy build with regard to its viability vs 14/14 standard, I feel in my own limited testing that it may well be deserving of a place alongside both 15 hatchery and 14/14 as a legitimate standard possible zerg opener. I also added a liquipedia page on http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/10_Pool_Baneling_(vs._Zerg) at the request of a poster in this thread, although I haven't experimented much with it myself.

I hope to inspire some quality debate in this thread on drone scouting with regard to 15 hatch in ZvZ. Thanks for taking the time to read and discuss.

Probe1

United States17920 Posts

September 12 2011 20:12 GMT

This is a pretty amazing compilation. Thank you for doing all this research into GSL ZvZ 15 hatches.
Man I just don't know what to say. Thanks.

1Lamb1Rice

United States435 Posts

September 12 2011 20:29 GMT

I've had the same questions about blind hatching and I've always been so against it. I guess Nestea has this thing all figured out.

MonkSEA

Australia1227 Posts

September 12 2011 20:35 GMT

Very neat and compiled post. Thanks for all the links to vods!

hugman

Sweden4644 Posts

September 12 2011 20:43 GMT

On September 13 2011 05:01 michaelhasanalias wrote:
mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - G3 - Terminus RE - link
Terminus was added the previous month to the GSL map pool partly in response to the number of all-ins. The hope was that in adding such an obviously macro-oriented map, that cheese would be heavily disfavored. I mention this as a foreshadow to a future game, but this is the first time the map is showcased in GSL ZvZ.

Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in cross positions in this game, and honestly if you have the chance I recommend watching this game if you haven't seen it. While not germane to this thread, it's one of the best standard ZvZs the GSL has seen, with nearly flawless execution from Dimaga and NesTea.

I just want to point out that this wasn't the first ZvZ on Terminus because Dimaga actually played Nestea on Terminus in the ace match of Korea vs World!

Also

Some Relevant GSL Statistics
IMNesTea
non15 Hatch vs. blind 15 Hatch: 6-0 (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, july, coca, losira WIN)
blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch: 3-2* (thewind*, zenio, kyrix WIN; dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)
blind 15 Hatch vs blind 15 Hatch: 4-1 (sen, leenock, coca, losira WIN; cezanne LOSS)
*The game vs oGsTheWind almost certainly should have been a loss.

Isn't the Dimaga game missing from blind15h vs blind15h?

RinconH

United States512 Posts

September 12 2011 20:44 GMT

someone give this man a medal

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 12 2011 21:01 GMT

On September 13 2011 05:43 hugman wrote:

Show nested quote +

I just want to point out that this wasn't the first ZvZ on Terminus because Dimaga actually played Nestea on Terminus in the ace match of Korea vs World!

Also

Show nested quote +

Isn't the Dimaga game missing from blind15h vs blind15h?

ah thanks, will update the OP. I skipped over Korea vs World games entirely!

Micket

United Kingdom2163 Posts

September 12 2011 21:23 GMT

A few nistakes in analysis here and there but overall an excellent job.

Nestea vs Leenock U & D G2, Nestea's gold hatch got spotted immediately and killed. He won with a followup roach all in.

Losira vs Kyrix g2 in group play, Losira went pool first, not hatch first. You talked about how Kyrix tried to target the pool. Notice that in a 8 pool vs 15 hatch situation, the pool wouldn't be up at all.

15 hatch is probably seen most in Korea because the Koreans hate coin flipping more than foreigners. When was the last time Nestea opened ling bane aggression? Losira? These are the best ZvZers in the world and they are all passive players in the beginning. Therefore, they play standard 15 hatch, whilst throwing in the 10 pool here and there. 14/14 openers that rely on speedling map control to coinflip are more popular in the foreign scene. The 'get speed early then make banelings then attack and hope they think you are droning' is not seen much in Korea. The 'get early speed then make nothing but drones and hope they don't do the same or attack' is also not seen. That is why Nestea has such high win rate, because people don't coinflip much against him (and he doesn't coin flip himself). His losses have come from coinflips the majority of the time anyway.

Glon

United States569 Posts

September 12 2011 22:05 GMT

here's the build (I am top of master on Korean server):

15 hatch vs non-hatch first:

15 hatch
16 gas
15 pool
You need a queen and spine at your natural. I transfer 2 drones to my natural/make 1 queen there (no queen in main for a while).
Start zergling speed, pull all but 1 off gas
Make 10 lings. You need these lings even if you don't see any from your opponent (he could be pooling).
At this point, drone, through a second drone on gas, get a baneling nest (when started nest put a third drone on gas) and you can either A. get aggressive (preferred B. fake aggression behind macro

blade55555

United States17423 Posts

September 12 2011 22:07 GMT

#10

On September 13 2011 07:05 Glon wrote:
here's the build (I am top of master on Korean server):

15 hatch vs non-hatch first:

15 hatch
16 gas
15 pool
You need a queen and spine at your natural. I transfer 2 drones to my natural/make 1 queen there (no queen in main for a while).
Start zergling speed, pull all but 1 off gas
Make 10 lings. You need these lings even if you don't see any from your opponent (he could be pooling).
At this point, drone, through a second drone on gas, get a baneling nest (when started nest put a third drone on gas) and you can either A. get aggressive (preferred B. fake aggression behind macro

and this is why I like drone scouting. you are making 10 lings blindly because you can't afford not to. That is why I always drone scout so I know what I can get away with :D.

Good read and seems like a lot of work thanks

gastro54

23 Posts

September 12 2011 22:16 GMT

#11

Sick overview, very educational.

You should do one for ZvP against forge FE.

Sbrubbles

Brazil5776 Posts

September 12 2011 22:34 GMT

#12

Good read! Unless I am mistaken, though, the 10 pool is done blindly just like the 15 hatch, no?

memcpy

United States459 Posts

September 12 2011 22:49 GMT

#13

Amazing thread. Should be featured.

Amui

Canada10567 Posts

September 12 2011 22:56 GMT

#14

On September 13 2011 07:34 Sbrubbles wrote:
Good read! Unless I am mistaken, though, the 10 pool is done blindly just like the 15 hatch, no?

Correct. The 10 pool is done blindly. The decision to all-in however depends on what the drone scout sees, if I understand this correctly.

Glon

United States569 Posts

September 12 2011 23:03 GMT

#15

On September 13 2011 07:16 gastro54 wrote:
Sick overview, very educational.

You should do one for ZvP against forge FE.

Scout it, 14 pool (or hatch first if you can obv), take third before getting a gas. Then just get 1, 3 drones on it for ling speed, when you start ling speed get 2 more gasses and tech to lair while getting roach warren (all droning unless you see him going for 4 Zlot pressure, in which case slowly build up lings (like 2 lings for 2 drones)

Spicy_Curry

United States10573 Posts

September 12 2011 23:11 GMT

#16

Blindly going 15 hatch feels quite risky but with proper OL vision i think it can be quite safe unless your opponent goes mega early allin mode. Anyway,this is an amazing compilation thanks for the hard work!

wilsonreis

Brazil97 Posts

September 12 2011 23:20 GMT

#17

On September 13 2011 05:01 michaelhasanalias wrote:
I labeled this as [D] because I felt it should go in the strategy forum, although I guess this may read more as a blog.

The problem with this being in the strategy forum is that instead of quietly rating it 5 stars, i feel forced to delurk and say:

"Good job, sir. Five Stars"

UmiNotsuki

United States633 Posts

September 13 2011 00:03 GMT

#18

Incredible detail :D I'm shocked there's no GSL data for 15 hatch vs. 6/7 pool, but I suppose it just hasn't happened yet!

flanksteak

Canada246 Posts

September 13 2011 01:55 GMT

#19

Thank you for doing this

PNDVL

12 Posts

September 13 2011 02:11 GMT

#20

winning pct of GSL 15 hatches with a drone scout 0% 0-0

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 13 2011 02:33 GMT

#21

On September 13 2011 06:23 Micket wrote:
A few nistakes in analysis here and there but overall an excellent job.

Nestea vs Leenock U & D G2, Nestea's gold hatch got spotted immediately and killed. He won with a followup roach all in.

Losira vs Kyrix g2 in group play, Losira went pool first, not hatch first. You talked about how Kyrix tried to target the pool. Notice that in a 8 pool vs 15 hatch situation, the pool wouldn't be up at all.

15 hatch is probably seen most in Korea because the Koreans hate coin flipping more than foreigners. When was the last time Nestea opened ling bane aggression? Losira? These are the best ZvZers in the world and they are all passive players in the beginning. Therefore, they play standard 15 hatch, whilst throwing in the 10 pool here and there. 14/14 openers that rely on speedling map control to coinflip are more popular in the foreign scene. The 'get speed early then make banelings then attack and hope they think you are droning' is not seen much in Korea. The 'get early speed then make nothing but drones and hope they don't do the same or attack' is also not seen. That is why Nestea has such high win rate, because people don't coinflip much against him (and he doesn't coin flip himself). His losses have come from coinflips the majority of the time anyway.

I suppose I remember the game differently between Leenock and NesTea, but I'll reword it with your recommendation. At least to me, he won this game when he took the gold, although not in the fashion when he did it vs Coca. He still got all the larva he needed from it, used all of them, and baited a tremendous overreaction from Leenock who put himself in a terrible position by feeling that his only option was to force that gold to immediately die. He wasted banelings and couldn't drone at all, and then was ultimately forced to drone when NesTea followed up with an all-in.

In the second game of LosirA v Kyrix, LosirA does still open 15 hatch. He has a pool because he dropped one at the normal time. If I remember correctly, he it had about 20-25 seconds to go when Kyrix entered his base.

I would say of NesTea's games, 8 of them have been cheeses. Twice he FE'd straight to the gold, three times he has 10 pooled 2ET, twice he lost to early pool (FruitDealer 8 pool, Dimaga 10 pool) and then once he should have lost to 13/12 baneling aggression by TheWind. In fact, I would go so far as to say that NesTea is unique among the top zergs in that he opts to "coin flip" more often and with more success than other zergs.

He is also the only player to win a game in the GSL with 14/14 vs 15 hatch (against July).

One thing I don't mention in this post but was a heavy trend in the games is that below Code S and before GSL August, there wasn't a single game featuring 15 hatch. Every zerg opted for 14/14 or some kind of early pool. The lone exceptions are GSL August Ro16 where Sniper was build order countered, GSL August Up/Down where LosirA was build order countered (both times by Check), and then the two other games between them where LosirA 15 hatched twice and Check opened 15 hatch and 15/14.

I don't know that I'd qualify LosirA as a Code A player though, having been to the finals himself, and Check has been in Code S for three seasons if I'm not mistaken. In all, only Sniper has actually been the only non-Code S zerg to 15 hatch in a ZvZ. (I say that with a grain of salt though because Cezanne and Dimaga also did, but these two games were in the special tournaments).

On September 13 2011 08:20 wilsonreis wrote:

Show nested quote +

The problem with this being in the strategy forum is that instead of quietly rating it 5 stars, i feel forced to delurk and say:

"Good job, sir. Five Stars"

What does it mean to five star a post? I wasn't sure whether to put this in sc2 forum, strategy forum or as a first blog post. I thought since it would ultimately go into a discussion on 15 hatch and whether or not one should drone scout, it should go here. Maybe I chose poorly?

On September 13 2011 11:11 PNDVL wrote:
winning pct of GSL 15 hatches with a drone scout 0% 0-0

Technically 0-1

oGsCezanna drone scouted around 13 supply in game 1 of the Ro64 Super Tournament against IMNesTea and still basically lost the game due to the 10 pool. However, due to his quick response to cancel the hatchery and build a pool of his own, he turned what would have been a build order loss into a late mid-game back-and-forth. Part of me still feels like the game was decided before the drone ever scouted the 10 pool though because he still technically 15 hatched blindly (before knowing what his opponent was up to).

In most of NesTea's 15hatch games he tends to favor going Warren before Queen and pumping out 3-4 roaches, and I honestly prefer this method, depending on the map. Blade did an awesome writeup on defending 15 hatch from 14/14 that talks about using this method.

Ultimately I think that in playing ZvZ on ladder, where the probability for earlier pools for the quick bo1 win is high, blindly 15 hatching simply isn't viable at all unless you're content with just losing games against early pools.

Lobotomist

United States1541 Posts

September 13 2011 07:04 GMT

#22

Is there a liquipedia build for 10 pool baneling? Someone care to summarize?

warblob004

United States198 Posts

September 13 2011 07:23 GMT

#23

This. Is analysis at its best - perhaps we can really look into the prospects/(standard)-ness of 15hatch moreso now?

Arir

Finland60 Posts

September 13 2011 07:47 GMT

#24

"Blind" Hatch first is pretty much way to do it in zvz. If you want to send drone scout you have to be able to gather information before you plant hatch. Otherwise you would be better off vs 10pool without drone-scouting.

On 2 player map that propaply means sending out 9th10th drone or so. That hurts quite a lot especially zvz. On 4 player map you have to send drone scout even earlier to secure information before planting a hatch.

Personally i think it`s plain wrong to scout with drone when using this build. At least on any larger maps than 2 player.

Notfragile

Greece713 Posts

September 13 2011 08:28 GMT

#25

Wonderful post!!! Thank you very much for taking the time to do something like this.

Theese are the efforts of the world's best zergs to find the perfect oppening. And of course we can find some patterns in there that will help us out in our scrubby games.

I have to say that for me the best approach in the ZvZ match-up is to stay safe, while being able to switch to kill-mode if you see the opponent going blind 15hatch or just drone too hard. It seems that 10 pool/double extractor trick/drone scout as pool finishes is the way to go. While the occasional 15hatch can give a huge advantage if unpunished, the eco10pool is (now that i have seen this beautyful compilation of ZvZ) just better.

Go in with a drone, see 15 hatch? Then all-in with a spine crawler and 3 drones left behind to make more lings.
Go in with a drone and don't see hatch first? use the first 4 lings to make opponent lose mining time and to scout, while your faster queen will give you an economic advantage!!! Then proceed to roach warren and hatch at 30. Then it's a macro game with you probably slightly ahead.

The only -probable- counter to eco10pool I can see is a 14/14 or probably even faster baneling nest, if you know the opponent is going for the 10pool. Which you shouldn't, so it all comes back to 10pool superiority. (And even if you go for the blings, the eco10pooler has 2 bloody queens defending by the time you have your blings out, so he CAN def, but it depends on his micro and not on build order win)

I want to thank the OP once again, for he has shown me the way to go in ZvZ. I am not kidding, eco10pooling (or NesPooling) starts for me today!!

Edit: I want to thank the OP also for the 26speedling expand agression build (as the safe let's-destroy-the-poor-guy build) from another awesome thread. I should probably make a statue out of the OP and pray to it every morning, because has the tendency to solve my ZvZ woes

jjhchsc2

Korea (South)2393 Posts

September 13 2011 08:41 GMT

#26

wow nice write up and stats!

NeonFox

2373 Posts

September 13 2011 08:47 GMT

#27

Many thanks for this great article.
While I never blind 15 hatch myself, i'll always go for a 15 hatch but scout on 9-10 depending on maps to be able to revert to a gas -pool if I see a sub-14 pool.
Even with your explanations I still don't get how the pros manage to hold it blindly against anything under 14 pool, it takes micro and game sense out of this world.

Arir

Finland60 Posts

September 13 2011 08:54 GMT

#28

On September 13 2011 17:47 NeonFox wrote:
Many thanks for this great article.
While I never blind 15 hatch myself, i'll always go for a 15 hatch but scout on 9-10 depending on maps to be able to revert to a gas -pool if I see a sub-14 pool.
Even with your explanations I still don't get how the pros manage to hold it blindly against anything under 14 pool, it takes micro and game sense out of this world.

Isn`t it pretty impossible to always scout early pool before planting hatch on most 4 player maps? On maps like xel naga you can go 9-10 drone scout and get information in time.. But on most maps you really have to flip a coin and micro godly if you face 9-10 pool.

Personally i go also almost always hatch first but if you do not scout opponent base first, your drone scout is wasted.

kedinik

United States352 Posts

September 13 2011 09:21 GMT

#29

On September 13 2011 06:01 michaelhasanalias wrote:

Show nested quote +

ah thanks, will update the OP. I skipped over Korea vs World games entirely!

Really nice OP.

But the Dimaga / NesTea games were drone scout 15 versus blind 15, blind 15 versus 10 pool, and drone scout 15 versus blind 15. Never just blind versus blind.

Dimaga largely lost G1 because of the snowballed disadvantage from drone scouting when NesTea hatched blindly.

G3 was the inverse of G1, with a shaken up NesTea drone scouting while Dimaga 15 hatched blind and used this slight edge to build a solid lead.

NeonFox

2373 Posts

September 13 2011 09:25 GMT

#30

On September 13 2011 17:54 Arir wrote:

Show nested quote +

For example on shakuras plateau you can send your overlord to the top base and a drone on 9 at the bottom one, on Shattered overlord in the close air, drone to the others, I don't remember the name of the new maps but the antiga one for example I always 15 hatch.
What I do is go up to 15 drones, and if I scout an early pool I throw down own my pool and gas immediately, if not the hatch goes down.
The only maps I don't auto 15 hatch on are Xel Naga and Tal Darim, Xel naga because it's to risky and Tal Darim because I do the roach warren after pool variant of 15 hatch, and if the opponent goes for speedling expand he can pin me to my base, run around the nat and main and do wathever he wants back home.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 13 2011 10:52 GMT

#31

On September 13 2011 18:21 kedinik wrote:

Show nested quote +

Are you referring to a different series perhaps?

This is the one I'm referring to: http://www.gomtv.net/2011championship/vod/64001

Game 1 was on Scrap Station, where both players' overlords were positioned over each other. In this situation, 15 hatch is the preferred opener, and doesn't qualify as a "blind 15 hatch" since both players know it's coming. Neither player sent out a drone scout.

Game 3 was on Terminus, and neither player had vision of the other one until 5:00 game time.

GentleDrill

United Kingdom672 Posts

September 13 2011 11:14 GMT

#32

I'm pretty sure Losira vs Kyrix on Metalopolis had Losira doing a 17 hatch. Sound ridiculous but I went back at the time to check.

wilsonreis

Brazil97 Posts

September 13 2011 11:25 GMT

#33

On September 13 2011 11:33 michaelhasanalias wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think the strategy forum is a perfect place for your analysis. The "star" system is a sort of ranking system exclusive to blog posts. What i meant was that were it a blog post, i would rate it 5 stars.

kedinik

United States352 Posts

September 13 2011 11:25 GMT

#34

My mistake. My memory had confused things I remembered about G2 and G3 with G1.

I just thought it was significant that NesTea did not attempt to drone scout in G2 but did take an early disadvantage by drone scouting in G3 while Dimaga did not. If I at least remember that much correctly!

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 13 2011 11:34 GMT

#35

On September 13 2011 20:25 kedinik wrote:
My mistake. My memory had confused things I remembered about G2 and G3 with G1.

I just thought it was significant that NesTea did not attempt to drone scout in G2 but did take an early disadvantage by drone scouting in G3 while Dimaga did not. If I at least remember that much correctly!

I just watched (and added) the Korea vs World games, and in the last set, Dimaga did indeed send what looks like a 9 scout (after overlord). Even with the scout though he didn't find NesTea until after he hatched himself (16 hatch 16 pool).

Dimaga and NesTea played four games with the first being in the final set of Korea vs the World, and then the next three being in Ro16 of the Championship (including twice on Terminus) so I can understand.

kedinik

United States352 Posts

September 13 2011 11:38 GMT

#36

Good thing your analysis was not based on my hazy memories

Thanks again for the write-up, was very informative.

barrykp

Ireland174 Posts

September 13 2011 12:31 GMT

#37

Great stuff; I admire the effort you clearly put into it.

Can't say it makes choosing an opening any easier though

Seems like 14/14 is still the jack of all trades, but I always feel pressured when my first lings arrive and see my opponent has gone hatch first.

Anyway I love the thread; I'll definitely be rereading it and watching some of the games in the future, to help with my own ZvZ.

BleaK_

Norway593 Posts

September 13 2011 13:04 GMT

#38

Really great post and read! Thank you!

marvellosity

United Kingdom36161 Posts

September 13 2011 13:21 GMT

#39

Even as a Protoss player with at best a passing interest in ZvZ, this was fascinating. Thanks.

Quantum617

United States37 Posts

September 13 2011 16:33 GMT

#40

On pretty much every map but Tal'Darim I will 14g/14p because I've lost to early pools too many times with blind 15hatch.

If I run into someone who has 15 hatched I usually take my chances with my baneling micro. It's amazing how many times I'm able to take out their hatchery and secure a win.

You can also expand behind massive speedling pressure if they go roaches, and delay their mining long enough to put the game on even footing. And if they screw up defending with roaches it's a freewin.

whatthefat

United States918 Posts

September 13 2011 16:55 GMT

#41

This is a great resource, thanks OP! I didn't realize just how much my understanding of ZvZ had been shaped by the GSL until I read through this and remembered my thoughts at the time of each game.

acidfreak

Romania352 Posts

September 13 2011 17:17 GMT

#42

My mind is blown from your hard work on this! Incredible research! Thanks!

Tortious_Tortoise

United States944 Posts

September 13 2011 17:19 GMT

#43

Great OP, examines scientifically the extent to which a blind 15h build is strategically viable and safe at high levels of play. If this is cleaned up a little bit, it could easily be a college statistics essay.

kirdie

Germany221 Posts

September 13 2011 17:23 GMT

#44

The links of kyrix vs losira don't work. I checked on GomTV and I could not find them either...

TutsiRebel

United States172 Posts

September 13 2011 21:10 GMT

#45

awesome post

Alejandrisha

United States6565 Posts

September 13 2011 21:32 GMT

#46

you, sir, are a saint.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 13 2011 23:21 GMT

#47

On September 14 2011 02:23 kirdie wrote:
The links of kyrix vs losira don't work. I checked on GomTV and I could not find them either...

They require the gomtv season pass because only the first game of each match is free (I think they are games 3 and 5 in the group). There are china links floating around that are rebroadcasts in chinese where you could probably watch them. I think it's probably frowned upon by GOM but I don't think they have the copyright abilities over China.

On September 13 2011 21:31 barrykp wrote:
Great stuff; I admire the effort you clearly put into it.

Can't say it makes choosing an opening any easier though

You know, I feel the same way. Including the game I forgot about but just added last night (Dimaga v NesTea KORvWORLD game on Terminus) that makes two games in total where there was a drone scout before hatch first, and in both cases it didn't really make a difference (neither scouted the other player before the hatch went down).

Further, the win rate of hatch first vs 14/14 is something close to 100%, with the only game a 14/14 won being NesTea when he played July, and it was dead even until July gave all his ultras away.

However, I think the more interesting story there is that the players we would generally consider superior in skill tend to more often open 15 hatch, whereas the cheesier guys who are in code A and B tend to always 14/14. So the better players are already 15 hatching, but the high win rate may well be because 15 hatch is indeed the superior (or at least equal?) opening.

I know I've always preferred 15 hatch when I can get away with it, but especially on ladder and with so many players opting for 9 or 11 pools or just early pools in general, it's difficult to justify opening 15 hatch at least for ladder practice.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 14 2011 01:11 GMT

#48

On September 13 2011 16:04 Lobotomist wrote:
Is there a liquipedia build for 10 pool baneling? Someone care to summarize?

I added a liquipedia page for the build as Check executed it in both games featured in the OP:
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/10_Pool_Baneling_(vs._Zerg)

Yoshi Kirishima

United States10329 Posts

September 14 2011 03:05 GMT

#49

Holy shit man, you are so awesome, thank you for such an awesome contribution to the community.

So organized, informational, descriptive, everything. Great stuff!

The.Doctor

Canada333 Posts

September 14 2011 04:35 GMT

#50

Damn good post. TL needs more of this.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 14 2011 05:37 GMT

#51

added a game I had forgotten before, as well as a non-15h game in dimaga v july that I felt deserved inclusion because dimaga intended to 15h but scouting changed his mind:

KORvWORLD FXOmOOnGLade vs STJuly - Metalopolis - link
July opens blind 15 hatch 14 pool in cross positions against mOONglade's 14/14 bling pressure. July drops a fast warren but has a late gas and so is barely able to defend in time with roaches and zerglings. From here the game transitions into a typical July game (re: slugfest).

KORvWORLD mTwDimaga vs STJuly - Shakuras Plateau - link
This game is special among all of these I mention because it actually doesn't feature a blind 15 hatchery. I include it because in re-watching it I noticed something very important--Dimaga actually intended to open 15 hatchery, but he drone scouted on 9 supply and saw July's 10 pool. He then responds by canceling his 14th drone, and going 13 pool 12 gas. I firmly believe Dimaga would have been hard-pressed to survive against July's 10 pool pressure had he not drone scouted and responded accordingly.

flcHoOt

United States15 Posts

September 14 2011 05:42 GMT

#52

This post is very amazing. Very very brilliant and I can't thank you enough for your in depth analysis of this match up. Wonderful, Well Organized, To the Point, Looks clean, Nice Pics, Nice Links, Credibility. This post has everything.

Oboeman

Canada3980 Posts

September 14 2011 06:27 GMT

#53

great post.

Is nestea vs losira the only example of 10p/12ov against 14/14?

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 14 2011 06:42 GMT

#54

On September 14 2011 15:27 Oboeman wrote:
great post.

Is nestea vs losira the only example of 10p/12ov against 14/14?

Yeah the only other game that didn't immediately end against this build was Cezanne's canceled 15 hatch into 15 pool, and he was pretty far behind the entire game in my opinion.

Ghoststrikes

Canada1356 Posts

September 14 2011 06:50 GMT

#55

Great read, and nice work on that!

This is a really good reflection on the State of ZvZ openers!

Oboeman

Canada3980 Posts

September 14 2011 07:33 GMT

#56

On September 14 2011 15:42 michaelhasanalias wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeah the only other game that didn't immediately end against this build was Cezanne's canceled 15 hatch into 15 pool, and he was pretty far behind the entire game in my opinion.

ok I had a vague memory so I checked the MLG Raleigh vods, and although this isn't GSL, they're code S zergs.

Coca went 10p/12 ov against DRG on testbug in game 1. and DRG went 14/14 speedling expand. Coca backs out and makes roaches before expanding (because his ling speed was miles behind), but DRG has a pretty solid lead and outright kills him with a roach ling timing.

also for what it's worth in game 3, Coca goes 14/14 against DRG's blind 15 hatch, and coca uses 6 speedlings to be annoying and somehow end up with a solid lead... not sure how that happened.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 14 2011 09:57 GMT

#57

I had a chat with dongraegu about drone scouting in 15 hatch and he said this:

+ Show Spoiler +

나의 메시지: why are you terran now??
dongraegu is zerg!!
동래구프로에쓰: Terran so IMBA in Ladder
나의 메시지: hahahaha
동래구프로에쓰: dont worry
Ill play zerg forever
나의 메시지: what about 1.4??
no neural parasite
on big units

동래구프로에쓰: maybe DK has no brain
나의 메시지: what is DK?
동래구프로에쓰: David Kim
나의 메시지: hahahaha
can I post this to reddit
its so funny
reddit people really love you
동래구프로에쓰:

tell me about that links
나의 메시지: 잠깐만요
http://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/kf7fg/dongraegus_thoughts_on_proposed_14_neural/
this is so funny
you can say hi on reddit!~
they will ask you many questions too... you are the favorite zerg I think
동래구프로에쓰:

pleasure
나의 메시지: mm I wrote this yesterday maybe you will like it: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264988
It's a history of 15 hatch open in ZvZ GSL games
I think your english is very good maybe you can understand
동래구프로에쓰: yeah Maybe I can understand
but
very tired to long long english sentence
나의 메시지: umm
동래구프로에쓰: read!
나의 메시지: I can summarize
NesTea is 6-0 in ZvZ when he plays against 15 hatch and he does NOT 15 hatch
동래구프로에쓰: oh
나의 메시지: but everyone else win every game 15 hatch vs 14/14
because NesTea soemtimes he does 10 pool 12 overlord
and he is 4-0
and 2-0 doing fast gold 15 hatch
동래구프로에쓰: conclusion is NesTea IMBA in ZvZ?
나의 메시지: nono
conclusion is 15 hatch risky in zvz!
동래구프로에쓰: aha!
나의 메시지: but i don't know maybe it's still best
every game nestea has lost in zvz has been to code B player
동래구프로에쓰: I think best build if opponent doesnt use fast pool
나의 메시지: i think so too
BUT
I don't understand why no drone scout??
동래구프로에쓰: well..
나의 메시지: there is ONE game in GSL history where there is drone scout for hatchery first
동래구프로에쓰: It doesnt necessary
나의 메시지: and dimaga v july in world championiship, and he would have lost to 10 pool but he won because he didn't make hatch
동래구프로에쓰: if do drone scout
then opponent know that I did first hatch
나의 메시지: (do you want me to correct your english? im an english teacher in korea its my job ^ ^)
hmm
동래구프로에쓰: yeah sure
thx
나의 메시지: ///it isn't necessary///
동래구프로에쓰: aha!
나의 메시지: hmmmm
so you don't drone scout because they know you 15 hatch?
동래구프로에쓰: yeah and
if opponent did first hatch too then
so badly start
나의 메시지: hmmmm
but only very small disadvantage
동래구프로에쓰: one drone mining is so difficult
나의 메시지: one sec
I made a program
it tells you how much minerals you lose from scout
동래구프로에쓰: ok
나의 메시지: if you send drone scout to check opponent main and come back after 2 minutes, it's 86 minerals
for 3 minutes it's 122 minerals
if you scout 2 bases
동래구프로에쓰: yeah yeah
나의 메시지: trade 80 minerals for win vs 10 pool all-in??
only 80 minerals, 1 good baneling and you're even
동래구프로에쓰: scouting
how many drones
나의 메시지: hmm?
동래구프로에쓰: 10 drone scouting?
나의 메시지: when to drone scout?
동래구프로에쓰: yeah right
나의 메시지: after 9 overlord start
9th drone hatch and scout
동래구프로에쓰: 9 drone scout is too poor
Neve win to 15hatch first opponent
나의 메시지: ooooh
BUT
if you scout 15 hatchery
your time is maybe only 80 seconds
동래구프로에쓰: what mean
나의 메시지: and then ~50-60 minerals only
동래구프로에쓰: my time?
나의 메시지: yes because
you scout
you can BLOCK the hatchery
or you can see hatchery
동래구프로에쓰: ah
나의 메시지: and you can come back fast
you dont need to see main base if you see hatchery
so very fast
동래구프로에쓰: hmm
ㅈㄷ
ok
then I practice when my team practice time
now I gonna packing
동래구프로에쓰: prepaare to go spain
oh
나의 메시지: spain??
wow why
동래구프로에쓰: yeah
dreamhack
나의 메시지: oh yeah
you will win!
동래구프로에쓰: sure
나의 메시지: hahaha
thank you for chatting, good luck at dreamhack!
동래구프로에쓰: thx
나의 메시지: 다음에 봐요!
동래구프로에쓰: see ya!
동래구프로에쓰 님의 연결이 끊겼습니다.

I never really thought about how drone scouting generally reveals that you are 15 hatching..... it's not just the greed factor (at least according to him)

sQueez

12 Posts

September 14 2011 11:20 GMT

#58

This is pretty awesome. Thank you a lot for putting this together!

Superpower

Australia212 Posts

September 14 2011 11:52 GMT

#59

THANK YOU SOOO much

links to heaps of zvzs ty !!!! Give this guy a clap!!!*claps*

CrueltY

Guernsey37 Posts

September 14 2011 16:39 GMT

#60

Excellent post. I have been trying to do a similar thing by analysing Nestea's zvz from the GSL, and you've ended up doing a way more impressive job then I did.

My one thought would be how map dependent these matches were. For example, Nestea did his 10 pool DET on Dual Site and Xel'Naga Fortress in the GSL finals against Losira, and I wonder how much the easier scouting of his opponent played into that. I'm trying to look at this to understand what maps it would be more reasonable for me to take the risk of 15 hatching.

Oboeman

Canada3980 Posts

September 14 2011 21:28 GMT

#61

I never really thought about how drone scouting generally reveals that you are 15 hatching..... it's not just the greed factor (at least according to him)

wow that's a great convo.

however; as you pointed out, not drone scouting has lead to some silly losses against stuff like 15 hatch at the gold. It seems to me that maybe you should be drone scouting with every build, although not necessarily 9 scout or 10 scout.

If a drone scout is a tell that you are going 15 hatch, you could drone scout off of 14-14 and make him think you are 15hatching and crush his cheese. it all seems a little bit silly to me, all of this "information without information" mindgames.

nestea dronescouts with his 10pool, because he needs to see the hatch in time to pull drones or not (that's also why he did it on 2player maps, to guarantee scouting the natural on time).

basically, I agree with your sentiment that 80 minerals is a price worth paying for not auto-losing to certain builds.

tehredbanditt

103 Posts

September 14 2011 21:33 GMT

#62

Best post I've ever read on tl.net. This cat put alot of time into this.

VashTS

United States1675 Posts

September 15 2011 03:27 GMT

#63

I thank you very, very much for all your effort and hard work in helping the community hopefully get a better grasp on the ZvZ match up.

Thank you, good sir. And thank you again for the Liquipedia page creation.

Shorty90

Germany154 Posts

September 15 2011 06:04 GMT

#64

wow... this must have taken days. I'm very impressed.
What I take from this is that ZvZ is indeed rock-paper-scissors in the opening builds, except that 15 hatch auto-loses to 10pools and is only slightly better than 14/14.
So if you don't like gambling or don't know your opponent you should almost exclusively go for 14/14 and let your mechanics secure you the win.

whatthefat

United States918 Posts

September 15 2011 14:49 GMT

#65

On September 14 2011 18:57 michaelhasanalias wrote:
I had a chat with dongraegu about drone scouting in 15 hatch and he said this:

+ Show Spoiler +

I never really thought about how drone scouting generally reveals that you are 15 hatching..... it's not just the greed factor (at least according to him)

Fascinating conversation, thank you for that. I usually 14/14 and always scout with my 10th drone. It greatly improves my chances against an early pool (lets me cancel hatch if 15 hatch, or lets me take drones off gas to afford queen and lings even after drones are pulled if 14/14). It also tells me gas timings (which isn't always possible with overlord scouting). I'm still not sure whether it's worth it though.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 15 2011 23:24 GMT

#66

On September 15 2011 23:49 whatthefat wrote:

Show nested quote +

On September 14 2011 18:57 michaelhasanalias wrote:
I had a chat with dongraegu about drone scouting in 15 hatch and he said this:

+ Show Spoiler +

I never really thought about how drone scouting generally reveals that you are 15 hatching..... it's not just the greed factor (at least according to him)

hmm... I think if you're going to 14/14 with a drone scout, it might actually be more cost efficient to 13/13 or 13/12 blind. Technically 14/14 should be able to survive anything except in ridiculous, map-dependent situations (close positions on ladder shattered, etc)

However, if you can use that information to determine whether you need an immediate baneling nest or can immediately expand, maybe it's worth it? I don't know the answer.

JiYan

United States3668 Posts

September 15 2011 23:31 GMT

#67

wow lots of work put into this post.

Oboeman

Canada3980 Posts

September 16 2011 08:33 GMT

#68

On September 16 2011 08:24 michaelhasanalias wrote:

Show nested quote +

On September 15 2011 23:49 whatthefat wrote:

On September 14 2011 18:57 michaelhasanalias wrote:
I had a chat with dongraegu about drone scouting in 15 hatch and he said this:

+ Show Spoiler +

I never really thought about how drone scouting generally reveals that you are 15 hatching..... it's not just the greed factor (at least according to him)

drone scout can get information such as
- early pool
- pool is late, therefore hidden expo
- gas timing so you know when he will have ling speed
- if he takes drones out of gas
- if he starts an early roach warren or baneling nest
- how many lings he produces

I feel like having guaranteed knowledge of any of those points should allow you to take action in a better way. It's like having the scv scout in the protoss base. You know that he won't start a twilight or his stargate until he kills the scv, so why keep hime there after checking gas? so that he can't get away with a super early twilight or stargate (or whatever).

Relying entirely on the overlord watching the natural and the units coming down the ramp seems so unreliable to me. and there are games where people exploit this - both of nestea's hatch first at the gold games the opponent sees no expansion and throws down a bunch of spinecrawlers. that cost him more than a drone scout. There was the xel'naga game where coca goes baneling nest before speed and sneaks his lings across the map exactly dodging overlords. Nestea got damn lucky that the banes hit his queen that game, and also lucky that he blindly went roach with no info.

ALPINA

3791 Posts

September 16 2011 08:49 GMT

#69

What's funny is that when I go 15 hatch and my opponent goes for safe 14 pool and then hatch I am always behind. Thing is that when I get hatch first I need extra lings and spines to defend his possible attack and at that time if opponent just droning hard he will be far ahead. I don't even know is it worth going hatch first at all lol..

Ninety-Three

United States68 Posts

September 16 2011 08:53 GMT

#70

You don't react any differently when you scout early pool, so scouting one actually hurts you more than it helps, and the other things you listed can be scouted with your lings. That's why so many high-caliber players are against drone scouting in this matchup, whether that eventually proves to be correct or not due to other factors like those discussed in this thread.

Also, big thank you to OP for putting a lot of time and effort into this. I would LOVE to see the strategy forum take a turn toward more of this kind of high-quality constructive discussion more than we see now.

blade55555

United States17423 Posts

September 16 2011 08:55 GMT

#71

On September 16 2011 17:53 Ninety-Three wrote:

Show nested quote +

What yes you do. If you were going to go 14/15 hatch and you scout an 8 pool you aren't going to 14/15 hatch lol. But thats the only time you should drone scout (imo) is when you are planning on hatch firsting, when you are 14/14 there is no need to drone scout.

Ninety-Three

United States68 Posts

September 16 2011 09:39 GMT

#72

But don't you cancel it when you see the lings coming from overlords? What do you do differently scouting it compared to seeing the lings?

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

September 16 2011 12:37 GMT

#73

On September 16 2011 18:39 Ninety-Three wrote:

Show nested quote +

But don't you cancel it when you see the lings coming from overlords? What do you do differently scouting it compared to seeing the lings?

In the case of 9 scout (for hatch first) you would just not build the hatchery.

The game in the world championship series (april) between july and dimaga on shakuras is a great example of why drone scouting off an intended hatch first can be a game-saver. Because of that drone scout he canceled his 14th drone, quickly pooled and didn't go hatch first, and this put him ahead.

I agree with ninety-three and blade though in that I think hatch first is the only time it would be worth drone scouting unless it's some goofy ladder map.

Ninety-Three

United States68 Posts

September 17 2011 06:05 GMT

#74

Derp! >_< Okay, I definitely see the advantage in not putting it down over cancelling! Hahaha

It's obviously worth the minerals lost for the scout and the ability to get your pool down asap minimizes damage while still retaining a lead instead of having to rely on a micro battle in a tense situation. So, drone scouting off of hatch first is worthwhile.

blade55555

United States17423 Posts

September 17 2011 08:03 GMT

#75

On September 17 2011 15:05 Ninety-Three wrote:
Derp! >_< Okay, I definitely see the advantage in not putting it down over cancelling! Hahaha

It's obviously worth the minerals lost for the scout and the ability to get your pool down asap minimizes damage while still retaining a lead instead of having to rely on a micro battle in a tense situation. So, drone scouting off of hatch first is worthwhile.

imo yes. Also if you drone scout and he is hatch firsting you know you don't have to make your pool asap, you can drone to whatever you feel like then throw the pool down.

Unless the opponent you are playing knows your playstyle they will be taking a huge risk doing this even if they drone scout as I face a lot of players who 14/14 but still drone scout so if they drone to 16 then make a pool they will die to a properly executed 14/14 ling/bane all in (I think I haven't ever really tested it but I know if you 15 hatch/14 pool your roaches pop out at just the right moment when banelings touch your creep so I imagine 15 hatch/16 pool you would just die).

Micket

United Kingdom2163 Posts

September 17 2011 08:17 GMT

#76

I don't see the point of drone scouting much tbh. Its so easy to scout with your lings stuff like tech or gas count drone count doesn't require you to know their opening. DRG said that drone scout + 15 hatch auto loses to blind 15 hatch, which seems pretty bleak to me.

I watch loads of Zerg streams and all the top players NEVER drone scout. You often here things like 'Idra just seems to be pulling ahead in every way' and you have to think it is to do with a snowball effect of little advantages. No way is Idra massively outmacroing a pro Zerg player 7 minutes into the game, but he has more drones, earlier upgrades ...

Belial88

United States5217 Posts

September 28 2011 20:20 GMT

#77

Holy shit dude, this is the best write-up ever! Best thread on TL eva! Omg I love you OP!!!!

I strongly believe that ZvZ is the BEST match-up in the game. It's the most 'honest' match up, where unlike vT you can't just make an expo behind a bunker and siege tanks, or vP where they can expand with sentries and warp gates, or as soon as they get their deathball they win the game no matter what macro mistakes they made. In this match-up, you make 10 drones you die. If you make 10 units, you die. You have to keep pumping units, and try to eek out just one more drone then the opponent. It's so micro dependent, and it's completely NOT rock-papper-scissors since good micro can save anything. It's the most exciting and tense all game long.

I really hope this goes a long way to informing people how the match-up works. Too many people seem to think ZvZ is rock paper scissors rather than 'better' decisions or worse positions where micro can save you. Too many people think it's all about luck, but you can really scout in this match-up, and you can deny scouting but with skill and only within reason.

ZvZ. Absolutely the best fucking match-up, and the metagame is so dynamic, it's a real shame no one pays attention to the metagame shifts in ZvZ that are always going on.

As to the above conversation about drone scouting - if you hatch first, don't drone scout, you need the drone and money for defense (you can scout around 18th drone because that's after an early pool pops, but your first ling will arrive very soon and you just suicide it). If you go early pool, don't scout because you're being aggressive. If you go 14/14, you should send your 11th drone, so you can see the timing of the gas and how much was mined and see if you need to react with an expansion or mass speedlings vs 1 base roach (like pool/gas opening), if they kept drones in gas for banelings or 1 base speedling/roach all-in, or if they expanded and took gas or not (if you can apply speed or bane pressure if they didn't get gas, or if they did, what units they are going to defend with and if you should pressure or not).

Zefa

United States297 Posts

September 28 2011 20:38 GMT

#78

Im not even a zerg and I read through this incredible post. We need more analysis stuff like this for the other races.

michaelhasanalias

Korea (South)1231 Posts

May 20 2012 15:47 GMT

#79

Sorry to bump this year old thread, but would it be worth updating this or is it still relevant? I'm just getting back into SC2 and haven't followed GSL since GSL August... is 15h still the common opener in zvz?

EndOfLineTv

United States741 Posts

May 20 2012 15:56 GMT

#80

On May 21 2012 00:47 michaelhasanalias wrote:
Sorry to bump this year old thread, but would it be worth updating this or is it still relevant? I'm just getting back into SC2 and haven't followed GSL since GSL August... is 15h still the common opener in zvz?

Yes it is. Here is a recent VOD from Day9 featuring: Liquidsheth and stephano ^_^

http://blip.tv/day9tv/day-9-daily-443-p1-liquidsheth-vs-mstephano-6081999

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[D]ZvZ: A GSL History of the Blind 15 Hatch

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