EPTI hate to be a lowly masters T player and say "I told you so"... So I will begin this topic like this:
How can Mech play be effectively used vs. protoss? Is it only as a transitional phase between bio and lategame or a viable earlygame tech path?
OLD:
+ Show Spoiler +
First of all, I am not sure if this is entirely acceptable due to the possibility of ruining surprises the players are hiding. Beyond that, if anything is wrong with it, please lock.
CONTAINS:
SPOILER ON GSL3 - RO8 Games
EDIT:
I hate to bump this up but.......
Can we see if its viable, now + Show Spoiler +
CONTAINS:
SPOILER ON GSL3 - RO8 Games
EDIT:
I hate to bump this up but.......
Can we see if its viable, now + Show Spoiler +
that Jinro has proved it possible?
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ORIGINAL POST:
+ Show Spoiler +
NO LONGER RELEVANT:
Having said that, it is time for our favorite Korean oGsMC to battle in a teamkill clash against our awesome friend Liquid'Jinro. There are quite a few of us who are hoping for the best for Jinro, but he has stated himself that the chances are quite slim for him. oGsMC has said that his win-rate against Terran is 95% (this is not technically proven wrong at all by the MarineKingPrime game, statistically speaking we do not have enough data to be able to analyze a 3-1). Since Jinro is MC's main practice partner, I have a feeling that 95% is contributed largely by Jinro.
So according to the players, MC is heavily favored.
WHY:
Macro:
Jinro is known for his ability to outmacro his opponents as a Terran, he retains the foreigner style of expanding as much as possible while abusing orbital scans. However, it is a fact that MC's macro cannot be underestimated. I cannot really decipher who has the advantage here, as these two players have not played live together before and macro does not mean who can make more crap necessarily, macro is very dependent on the VS. player.
Micro:
Jinro is not known for his micro, not saying that it is subpar, but he has yet to prove to us that he can arc his marines faster than Foxer or studder-step his banshees more precisely than Boxer. MC had phenomenal High Templar micro against Foxer's ghosts. It may be because of Foxer's lack of practice with ghosts, so this does not mean everything. However, from his experiences with SC1 as a progamer, it is quite likely his micro is just one step ahead.
Game Sense/Decision Making:
MC is an aggressive player, so he gains game sense by pressuring his opponent at all times, keeping them in check with offensive units. This has the advantage, as described by the man himself, of creating psychological stress for the opponent. Jinro has great game sense through his love for scouting (see hero reaper), and an abuse of lolrbitals. Against an aggressive Protoss like MC, I would imagine that Jinro might not be able to spare scans as he could against Choya. Note Choya looked like he had better macro because Jinro was sacrificing mules, NOT because Jinro was falling behind.
If I had to rank the two, I would say that in a macro game, Jinro may have the better game sense and decision-making. The chances of MC allowing this is slim though, it is against his style. Therefore, I think there is a slight advantage for MC.
Overall:
The main reason why I think MC has the edge is because his ability to thin out his opponents and deflect absolutely everything is just amazing. He favors midgame pushes if the opponent is playing more aggressive, and he favors a early/midgame timing push followed by a macro overkill when advantage has been gained.
These speculations are only based on their games from this GSL season, because I personally believe that the situation and setting has a vast difference on a player.
What can Jinro do?
Jinro said himself that if he plays his style, he will most likely lose to MC. MC is a TvP mentor for Jinro and MC has Jinro's style figured out. I believe the best route of action is for Jinro to dust off the foreigner style and bust it out in the GSL.
The current metagame for GSL TvP is MMMG / Viking vs. Gateway / Collo into Gateway / HT. This is the case because either the Terran or Protoss player WILL do a early/mid game timing push that is designed to gain an advantage. MMM and Gateway are the only pathway to defend a timing push. The logical transition for P is Collosus as MMM will overrun Gateway units in the midgame. This will force a Viking transition, which will in turn force a HT transition. (Leaving out forge expand as MC doesn't do that). It seems like MC has this figured out, and breaks the chain somewhere between the MM to MMM transition through pressure timings.
This leads me to believe that Jinro should attempt another strategy:
Tank/Mech-transition.
This is not popular for the GSL as it requires the player to actually make a factory before 4000 barracks, a counter-intuitive move in the cheese plagued GSL3. It is however possible as a way to cut down midgame timing pushes. Tank semi-turtling can do wonders against gateway units. It will force airplay through phoenixes and void rays, or it will force collosus/Immortal play.
It is probably not the most viable way to play, but I'm proposing that a risky deviation may be beneficial. Cheese isn't that effective against MC, so an entirely new playstyle may be good to try out.
So according to the players, MC is heavily favored.
WHY:
Macro:
Jinro is known for his ability to outmacro his opponents as a Terran, he retains the foreigner style of expanding as much as possible while abusing orbital scans. However, it is a fact that MC's macro cannot be underestimated. I cannot really decipher who has the advantage here, as these two players have not played live together before and macro does not mean who can make more crap necessarily, macro is very dependent on the VS. player.
Micro:
Jinro is not known for his micro, not saying that it is subpar, but he has yet to prove to us that he can arc his marines faster than Foxer or studder-step his banshees more precisely than Boxer. MC had phenomenal High Templar micro against Foxer's ghosts. It may be because of Foxer's lack of practice with ghosts, so this does not mean everything. However, from his experiences with SC1 as a progamer, it is quite likely his micro is just one step ahead.
Game Sense/Decision Making:
MC is an aggressive player, so he gains game sense by pressuring his opponent at all times, keeping them in check with offensive units. This has the advantage, as described by the man himself, of creating psychological stress for the opponent. Jinro has great game sense through his love for scouting (see hero reaper), and an abuse of lolrbitals. Against an aggressive Protoss like MC, I would imagine that Jinro might not be able to spare scans as he could against Choya. Note Choya looked like he had better macro because Jinro was sacrificing mules, NOT because Jinro was falling behind.
If I had to rank the two, I would say that in a macro game, Jinro may have the better game sense and decision-making. The chances of MC allowing this is slim though, it is against his style. Therefore, I think there is a slight advantage for MC.
Overall:
The main reason why I think MC has the edge is because his ability to thin out his opponents and deflect absolutely everything is just amazing. He favors midgame pushes if the opponent is playing more aggressive, and he favors a early/midgame timing push followed by a macro overkill when advantage has been gained.
These speculations are only based on their games from this GSL season, because I personally believe that the situation and setting has a vast difference on a player.
What can Jinro do?
Jinro said himself that if he plays his style, he will most likely lose to MC. MC is a TvP mentor for Jinro and MC has Jinro's style figured out. I believe the best route of action is for Jinro to dust off the foreigner style and bust it out in the GSL.
The current metagame for GSL TvP is MMMG / Viking vs. Gateway / Collo into Gateway / HT. This is the case because either the Terran or Protoss player WILL do a early/mid game timing push that is designed to gain an advantage. MMM and Gateway are the only pathway to defend a timing push. The logical transition for P is Collosus as MMM will overrun Gateway units in the midgame. This will force a Viking transition, which will in turn force a HT transition. (Leaving out forge expand as MC doesn't do that). It seems like MC has this figured out, and breaks the chain somewhere between the MM to MMM transition through pressure timings.
This leads me to believe that Jinro should attempt another strategy:
Tank/Mech-transition.
This is not popular for the GSL as it requires the player to actually make a factory before 4000 barracks, a counter-intuitive move in the cheese plagued GSL3. It is however possible as a way to cut down midgame timing pushes. Tank semi-turtling can do wonders against gateway units. It will force airplay through phoenixes and void rays, or it will force collosus/Immortal play.
It is probably not the most viable way to play, but I'm proposing that a risky deviation may be beneficial. Cheese isn't that effective against MC, so an entirely new playstyle may be good to try out.
From this assumption, we are transitioning into a general discussion of tank play in response to an aggressive protoss style. MC and Jinro is just a case-study from this point on.
Assume phoenixes:
Phoenixes are a great counter to mass tanks, as it can lift sieged tanks. They also shut down any sort of airplay, as phoenixes pretty much hardcounters any starport unit.
Mass marines must therefore be assumed. Since drops are risky during phoenix play, the Terran's army will remain fairly immobile. This will allow the Protoss to outmacro Terran, transitioning into HT or Collosus comfortably.
The key to Terran defense before HT/Collo is for MM to stand between the tanks and phoenixes AND the gateway units at the same time. This usually means the army has to stay in base. Staying in base is not something the Terran wants to do against a protoss massing up a 200/200 army, Protoss HT tech at max can and will destroy MMM. A Terran then has to slowpush. I'm not the best T player when it comes to slowpushing against P, so this is up for discussion.
Alternative:
Thor. Not very sure, ideas?
Assume void rays:
Void rays can come in cheese-sized or deathball-sized. 1-3 VR cheese will prove difficult to us commoners, but I'm pretty sure top T's have it figured out that it becomes too dangerous to try, especially as MC wants to have a guaranteed play in every game.
Gateway / Voidray midgame push:
Very difficult to deal with, turrets are not particularly effective as a counter. Marines can be used, leading to the same effect as the phoenix play, with more emphasis on busting the tanks than expanding.
Viking play will turn out into Tank/Viking. TvT much lol. I have no idea how it will turn out in TvP, any thoughts?
(I personally think if Terran gains air dominance, drop play is a necessity).
Assume Collosus / Immortal:
I haven't seen this in a while in a top level game. From my measly 2000 T experience, I personally find it very hard as a Terran player. If the midgame push is held off, Collosus is still much more mobile than the tank army, and will likely lead to another subsequent deathball.
Drop play seems like almost a necessity at this point. Collosus leads very little room for drop defense, the only viability is stalkers, which is possible to some extent.
The other Terran response is banshee/raven play. This is probably going to require 3 bases, or heavily cut into tanks. What do you guys think? Viable?
Conclusion:
I'm not making a conclusion or a tl;dr.
I admit this thread has pretty flimsy arguments due to the many assumptions made by me. We simply do not know enough about the current metagame through just the GSL.
My question is however:
If Terran is to move on from MMMG / Viking vs. P, will tanks be a good route to take? It should defend early gateway pushes decently, but teching or expanding will be much easier for the protoss.
Main discussion points:
If the foreign tank slowpush method is executed as a response to MC's hypothetical dominence, what will likely be resulted? What can be done to maximize the tank play?
Assume Phoenix:
Assume Void Rays:
Assume Robo:
Assume 4gate / gateway play:
Any other viewpoints and discussions raised are welcome too. However I will not be making a poll, because TL is just too Jinro-loving to do anything with a poll other than bringing out some lame 1-sidedness.
GOGO!
