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On August 23 2011 03:33 Yodo wrote:Ahh, sry, I misquoted. It should be: Show nested quote +Now let's consider BeSt's record. He's 3-1 against Flash this year before the Final. i.e. It is about Flash vs Best statistic. True, but there are no evidence that Bisu would have done worse as well. The only argument you have to support Best is his descent statistic vs Flash. But: 1. They played 4 games only. How you can relay on such a small data? 2. Ace match is very different from normal games, and this is true for all final's games. It is more close to BoX, as we have to deal with a lot of preparation. And in the last NATE MSL Flash 3-0'ed Best. And he would 3-0'ed him in this finals as well. Best is no good outside common games. I would not argue with you if he had some crafty build and failed, but his play was standard. 3. Check Best results, he is constantly out from individual leagues (and from early stages). He is no clutch player. And yes, Bisu is a better player than Best. The problem lays in false believe of SKT fans that Best can be a threatening opponent for a Flash, and Bisu's PvT is weak. Bisu is in top form, his PvT is fine, how you can miss this chance and send some other toss just because he has few legacy wins? If you want relay on statistic - use it properly. Bisu was better choice for this final match, and I believe Flash would be much more nervous facing Bisu.
If you agree that there is no evidence to suggest that Bisu would have done better how did you conclude that Bisu would have been a better choice?
It is a small sample but in general that's the problem with H2H records. However watching the games we can still see who has the edge. Watching the games vs. Flash of both players, I'd say Bisu is pretty good and stands a chance esp. if he prepares a snipe build, but Best delivered and even had the momentum in their H2H records. Again, a bit controversial as to how much emphasis should placed on H2H records.
Yes, the Ace match is different. But Best beat Flash in the ace matches in their H2H as well. Best's play was not crafty enough and too standard - well that's the fault of SKT coaches because despite the ample prep time all their builds were pretty standard as pointed out by others.
But specifically pertaining to who should have been the Ace pick - it's a value judgement. I'm sure given the SKT coaches available information, they must've felt Best was the *ahem* best choice. I'm pretty sure they have more relevant information than we do to base their decision upon and I'd trust their choice (after all they did get their ideal match-ups), it's just unfortunate things turned out the way they did for them. I don't think anyone can blame the SKT coaches for their choice, esp. if you put yourself in their shoes.
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The thing about Bisu's wins over Flash is that they generally come either from Bisu securing a sizable advantage early and riding it or from Bisu being able to rely on the mobility of the map. A game of his vs Flash on Destination particularly comes to mind -- Flash tried to secure the bridges early (his usual trick vP on that map) and Bisu spread the field with constant movements down the sides of the map.
Bisu has a good PvT history on Circuit Breaker because the Protoss can press in multiple locations, but against an in-form Flash, Bisu's style isn't really the right way to handle Flash on that map. It's too easy for Flash to take and defend 3 bases. If you redesign the map to get rid of the mineral only bases then I think Bisu's chances would improve exponentially (exponential relative to other Protoss players, that is).
I think part of Best's H2H record with Flash, and part of the reason he was chosen, is that while Best is not nearly as good at spreading the field (coordinating pressure simultaneously in multiple spots), he is better at the central battle.
But I'm inclined to think sending Best was a mistake. Bisu is just so much stronger as an overall player right now and Best is more susceptible to confidence issues. Also, it was obvious from the start that SKT would choose Best to snipe Flash during the regular games. Which means that if you go to ace match you're relying on sniping Flash twice with the same player on the same day? Really? Now obviously you cannot guarantee that Best will face Flash during the regular games, but they did manage to nail it and I don't believe that's just pure chance.
Actually, thinking of it from that perspective, it was a horrible choice. The idea of trying to snipe Flash with Best is not horrible, but trying to snipe him twice with the same player on the same day?
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I will never understand how you can look at Best's 0-3 after reaching the MSL Ro8, a feat which it would take a miracle for him to achieve at his current skill level, and the ridiculous beating he received in that Fortress game and still think he's a better choice than Bisu against a prepared Flash. Best has been successful against Flash because his style (you know, the one he plays every single PvT) happens to do very well against Flash's standard style, which he developed in order to maintain a 70%-80% winrate in Proleague without having to make up new builds all the time. Best is undeniably worse than Bisu at PvT in general, a fact you can prove to yourself by looking at his recent winrate (60% vs. 80% this year), his ELO (2132 vs. 2255), or a handful of recent games; is by far a worse player overall; and has less experience and worse historical performance in pressure situations.
Certainly, Bisu hasn't had tons of success against Flash either. But neither has anyone else. Flash is the undisputed best player in the world, and he didn't get there by being weak to gimmicky snipe builds. However, Bisu has beaten Flash in straight-up series games for which both prepared, including two at the beginning of his God Mode run (WCG 2009), which is way more than Best can say. Bisu also responded to his loss to Flash on Medusa in GOM way back when with a decisive victory on the same map a few days later in Proleague, demonstrating an ability to adjust that I've never seen from Best.
Now, obviously we can't say that Coach Park made a mistake, as he has significantly more information than we do. Maybe Bisu said he didn't feel confident playing against Flash and Best said that he did. Maybe Bisu was concerned about having to practice against two races for Alternative and CB, whereas Best could safely practice only his vT. Maybe Fantasy and Ssak played team melee as Terran in practice and Best won but Bisu lost. But with the information we do have, stats and VODs, Bisu is unambiguously a better choice than Best for an all-or-nothing game, especially when you can't even be sure that Flash will be the opponent.
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I agree with you on the idea that when Flash is serious about taking down Best and only Best, it's not even close -- hell, it's that way with every player in the league, more or less. But if you want to reference the 3-0 thrashing Flash gave Best in the MSL when he was prepared for him, then how can you not mention the more recent 2-0 beating Flash gave Bisu in MSL?
Flash wasn't losing that night -- he's just that once in a generation player who can force that level of dominance, and Park couldn't have made the right choice -- if he sends Bisu, then everyone complains about not sending the "flash killer" Best after Bisu loses, if you send Best then everyone complains about not putting in the "best proleague player" Bisu. It's a catch-22 and the main reason he chose Best is because Best is probably better in practice and they had Best practice more than anyone else for that ace match.
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Russian Federation327 Posts
Actually I find good reason to send out Best instead of Bisu: to avoid damage to Bisu's confidence and mental state. He is finally recovered from a long slump, it makes sense to sacrifice Best, who is used to up and downs.
Bisu is the only stable SKT player now, pressure and responsibility from the ACE match can bring his spirit down.
TTT, while I agree that Bisu or Best is kinda lose-lose situation, I must note that Flash vs Bisu would please more fans and provide higher hype level. i.e. less ppl would be complain.
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Park gives no shits about what the fans want when he's trying to win a championship. There are other times to be flashy.
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I agree that Flash was a clear favorite over everyone on SKT and that fans would complain either way. I just think that Bisu would have had a better shot than Best, even if it's 10% vs. 20% or something like that.
I considered Bisu's recent losses, but I think those games were played on a somewhat lower level than this would have been. Again, no player is a favorite over Flash right now; unlike some other past top players, he has no "nemesis" who beats him consistently. My argument basically boils down to two major points: 1. Best's much-touted >50% winrate against Flash is a red herring that fails to take into account the circumstances of the games, meaning that SKT has no real "Flash sniper" and that they should therefore send their best vT player. 2. This player is Bisu.
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It's easy to say that after Flash 2-0's him in the grand finals. People have been touting Best as the Anti-Flash for this entire season and it is only now the controversy comes up because Flash, as Flash is oft to do, thrashed him. No one, no single damn fan, would've raised a peep about playing Bisu if Best would've won(besides maybe the pure bisu fans going "I would've liked it if Bisu could've beaten Flash but this is great too!!" kind of stuff), and that's why this whole bit is dumb. It's revisionist history of Park's idea that didn't work and the rampant hypocrisy is annoying.
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On August 23 2011 11:10 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It's easy to say that after Flash 2-0's him in the grand finals. People have been touting Best as the Anti-Flash for this entire season and it is only now the controversy comes up because Flash, as Flash is oft to do, thrashed him. No one, no single damn fan, would've raised a peep about playing Bisu if Best would've won(besides maybe the pure bisu fans going "I would've liked it if Bisu could've beaten Flash but this is great too!!" kind of stuff), and that's why this whole bit is dumb. It's revisionist history of Park's bad idea and the rampant hypocrisy is annoying.
This is 99% truth. But TBH I think I might have at least thought "huh, I would have sent Bisu" even if I didn't say it. Then again, I'm just weird like that.
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On August 23 2011 11:10 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It's easy to say that after Flash 2-0's him in the grand finals. People have been touting Best as the Anti-Flash for this entire season and it is only now the controversy comes up because Flash, as Flash is oft to do, thrashed him. No one, no single damn fan, would've raised a peep about playing Bisu if Best would've won(besides maybe the pure bisu fans going "I would've liked it if Bisu could've beaten Flash but this is great too!!" kind of stuff), and that's why this whole bit is dumb. It's revisionist history of Park's idea that didn't work and the rampant hypocrisy is annoying.
No, this was my position before the finals as well. I honestly never thought anyone outside the SKT fanboy bubble actually believed Best was a favorite over Flash in anything but a random Proleague game, and I think I said pretty much the same thing as I did above in some post in the LR thread when Best beat Flash on CB with both doing their standard builds. But whatever, it's not like I sealed "FLASH > BEST" in an envelope before the finals, so you can think I'm Monday-morning quarterbacking if you want.
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I'm speaking to the general outrage that is primarily coming from the SKT fanboy bubble, which is a very sizable amount of the BW forums. You're arguing from the same premise so it's just easy to address.
I, personally, do not think Bisu is any better a chance at winning against Flash than Best. It's pure skepticism without any, you know, high quality analytic work on the players and how they play the matchup. That thing that Park does and that he got Coach of the Year (again!) for.
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On August 23 2011 11:51 gngfn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 11:10 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It's easy to say that after Flash 2-0's him in the grand finals. People have been touting Best as the Anti-Flash for this entire season and it is only now the controversy comes up because Flash, as Flash is oft to do, thrashed him. No one, no single damn fan, would've raised a peep about playing Bisu if Best would've won(besides maybe the pure bisu fans going "I would've liked it if Bisu could've beaten Flash but this is great too!!" kind of stuff), and that's why this whole bit is dumb. It's revisionist history of Park's idea that didn't work and the rampant hypocrisy is annoying. No, this was my position before the finals as well. I honestly never thought anyone outside the SKT fanboy bubble actually believed Best was a favorite over Flash in anything but a random Proleague game, and I think I said pretty much the same thing as I did above in some post in the LR thread when Best beat Flash on CB with both doing their standard builds. But whatever, it's not like I sealed "FLASH > BEST" in an envelope before the finals, so you can think I'm Monday-morning quarterbacking if you want.
When I said that what TTT said was 99% truth, I think you are a part of that other 1%. But honestly, as he said, would we be having this conversation if Best won?
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If Bisu played and lost, I think you'd be hearing a tenth of the complaints about playing your best player in the ace match than playing a gimmicky player who some people seem to have this delusional idea that he's a Flash killer based on a flawed H2H record.
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Absolutely not. Every SKT fan and their mother would be talking about how Best is the only guy besides Jaedong who's consistently beat Flash in proleague this season. Absolutely a no win situation.
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On August 23 2011 11:10 TwoToneTerran wrote:
It's easy to say that after Flash 2-0's him in the grand finals. People have been touting Best as the Anti-Flash for this entire season and it is only now the controversy comes up because Flash, as Flash is oft to do, thrashed him. No one, no single damn fan, would've raised a peep about playing Bisu if Best would've won(besides maybe the pure bisu fans going "I would've liked it if Bisu could've beaten Flash but this is great too!!" kind of stuff), and that's why this whole bit is dumb. It's revisionist history of Park's idea that didn't work and the rampant hypocrisy is annoying.
People were surprised at the Best choice in the LR thread before the ace match started. I think that shows that the choice was doubtful before the outcome was known.
I also think that if Bisu had been sent and lost, that there would be a lot less second-guessing now.
The thing is, you need someone with the right mindset to play the ace match in the fucking proleague finals. You need someone who has absolute confidence in themselves despite going against a steamroller. You need to be able to train to believe that they can will the steamroller out of existence.
This worked for SKT against Oz. Fantasy, despite being shaky historically TvZ, was sent to destroy JD, and he did.
Maybe them could have used him for this role. Maybe they could have used Bisu (he must have confidence after his ridiculous season, including at least one important win against Flash this year).
Best is never going to be able to achieve that state, especially since you need someone who can hold this confidence after possibly being beaten by Flash minutes earlier. Best just doesn't have that grit.
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I'm confused by this idea that the H2H record is "flawed". We can always draw conclusions based on overall play, but when players play each other with any regularity that's when I, at least, feel most confident that I can predict the outcome of the game with some confidence.
Before the final, Flash had played  BeSt 4 times (1-3) and Bisu 4 times (3-1) in the last season. Over that period, there are only a few people that Flash has played at least that often:
Stork (3-1)
 ZerO (3-2)
Jaedong (1-4)
Hydra (5-1)
 Leta (5-2)
Really (7-1)
I can look at that record, and without any other evidence whatsoever say that of all of those, if I have to pick one player, any player, to beat Flash, right now, I choose Jaedong. Most people here would probably agree with me. Of course, as we all know you can't go just on statistics, and there always will be things to be careful about. But results - wins and losses - do, almost always, give a overall accurate picture. Would I be more confident in saying BeSt was the right choice if the records were Flash 5-4 vs BeSt and 7-2 vs Bisu? Yes - a greater sample is always good. But even with a relatively small sample, if you disagree with the "results" the onus is on you to give good reason for disregarding them - which I haven't seen done. (Expanding the sample size doesn't do the Bisu argument any favors: Flash is 14-9 vs Bisu lifetime and 7-6 vs BeSt.)
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On August 24 2011 03:48 nodule wrote:
People were surprised at the Best choice in the LR thread before the ace match started. I think that shows that the choice was doubtful before the outcome was known.
That was more because Flash caved BeSt's skull in two sets prior to the ace match.
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On August 24 2011 04:39 LaXerCannon wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 03:48 nodule wrote:
People were surprised at the Best choice in the LR thread before the ace match started. I think that shows that the choice was doubtful before the outcome was known.
That was more because Flash caved BeSt's skull in two sets prior to the ace match.
Most fans forget that ace players are chosen well in advance.
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5930 Posts
On August 24 2011 03:53 VGhost wrote:I'm confused by this idea that the H2H record is "flawed". We can always draw conclusions based on overall play, but when players play each other with any regularity that's when I, at least, feel most confident that I can predict the outcome of the game with some confidence. Before the final, Flash had played BeSt 4 times (1-3) and Bisu 4 times (3-1) in the last season. Over that period, there are only a few people that Flash has played at least that often: Stork (3-1) ZerO (3-2) Jaedong (1-4) Hydra (5-1) Leta (5-2) Really (7-1) I can look at that record, and without any other evidence whatsoever say that of all of those, if I have to pick one player, any player, to beat Flash, right now, I choose Jaedong. Most people here would probably agree with me. Of course, as we all know you can't go just on statistics, and there always will be things to be careful about. But results - wins and losses - do, almost always, give a overall accurate picture. Would I be more confident in saying BeSt was the right choice if the records were Flash 5-4 vs BeSt and 7-2 vs Bisu? Yes - a greater sample is always good. But even with a relatively small sample, if you disagree with the "results" the onus is on you to give good reason for disregarding them - which I haven't seen done. (Expanding the sample size doesn't do the Bisu argument any favors: Flash is 14-9 vs Bisu lifetime and 7-6 vs BeSt.)
I think a few people have noticed how Best wins *all* of his games against Flash, that is Flash plays extremely passive then gets completely rolled over because Best gets 4 bases extremely easily without taking any damage.
They've also noticed that the minute Flash doesn't do the whole passive thing, Best just does not win against Flash. In recent days, I don't think there's a single time Best has won when Flash chooses a more aggressive play. In the finals, both games weren't even close: he rushed Best in the first game, then picked an extremely specific build to counter his sort of playstyle in the ace match.
I think a lot of people believed that, despite H2H records, Bisu's finals experience and, I guess, better skillset outside of center macro battles would have been a better pick. Though realistically, neither Best or Bisu were going to win that day because who are we kidding, Flash was prepared this time round and not playing a "welp my team is 0-3 and I still need to play Best and Fantasy" situation.
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On August 24 2011 05:32 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 04:39 LaXerCannon wrote:On August 24 2011 03:48 nodule wrote:
People were surprised at the Best choice in the LR thread before the ace match started. I think that shows that the choice was doubtful before the outcome was known.
That was more because Flash caved BeSt's skull in two sets prior to the ace match. Most fans forget that ace players are chosen well in advance.
Of course it doesn't change the coach's decision, but to the fans, all they see is that BeSt got smashed once already so they couldn't say "BeSt > Flash lololololol" prior to the ace match.
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