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On January 18 2011 06:17 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2011 21:43 Holgerius wrote:Stork is ahead of JD in ELO now. O_o JD is looking very beatable in all MU's currently (his once unbeatable ZvP definitely needs some rethinking). I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the MSL final though.  But he doesn't impress right now. Is there a way to figure out when the last time Flash+JD weren't Top 2? Whoa, look at the ZvP stats in WL! JD's loss to Violet is his first loss to someone other than Stork, Bisu or Kal since mid-2009, and counting Bo1's, JD has not lost a BoX to Kal since 2008. I'm not too worried about JD's ZvP form... to be honest, JD's ZvP was never truly dominant over Stork or Bisu to begin with. His real "edge" over them has been that he usually wins BoX's (this time, not counting Bo1's...), but the results are usually close and he frequently drops games to them in PL.
I know about his fantastic record (he's on his worst streak since 4 years back btw), and it's not really about the fact that he loses some games. It's about how he plays. The last game against Violet was so bad I don't even know where to begin. He really needs to work hard on fixing how he plays the match-up. He still has a mental edge over anyone in a Bo5, but I don't know if that will be enough if he runs into Stork again. Last time he won due to a ling all-in vs a greedy Stork. Now Stork is in the strongest PvZ shape he's ever been in and JD is looking weak.
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On January 18 2011 18:11 Holgerius wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2011 06:17 Mortality wrote:On January 17 2011 21:43 Holgerius wrote:Stork is ahead of JD in ELO now. O_o JD is looking very beatable in all MU's currently (his once unbeatable ZvP definitely needs some rethinking). I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the MSL final though. But he doesn't impress right now. Is there a way to figure out when the last time Flash+JD weren't Top 2? Whoa, look at the ZvP stats in WL! JD's loss to Violet is his first loss to someone other than Stork, Bisu or Kal since mid-2009, and counting Bo1's, JD has not lost a BoX to Kal since 2008. I'm not too worried about JD's ZvP form... to be honest, JD's ZvP was never truly dominant over Stork or Bisu to begin with. His real "edge" over them has been that he usually wins BoX's (this time, not counting Bo1's...), but the results are usually close and he frequently drops games to them in PL. I know about his fantastic record (he's on his worst streak since 4 years back btw), and it's not really about the fact that he loses some games. It's about how he plays. The last game against Violet was so bad I don't even know where to begin. He really needs to work hard on fixing how he plays the match-up. He still has a mental edge over anyone in a Bo5, but I don't know if that will be enough if he runs into Stork again. Last time he won due to a ling all-in vs a greedy Stork. Now Stork is in the strongest PvZ shape he's ever been in and JD is looking weak.
There's a difference between bad play and using retarded build orders. Remember when Flash was getting owned by 2-hatch muta because he was using the same stupid BO over and over (the OSL where he was in a group with JD, YarnC and EffOrt)? Or when Fantasy was losing with his build-one-of-everything build? That's not bad play it's just a player going through a phase where he thinks he has a good build (probably works well in practice) but he really doesn't. Anyway, his Bo5 series against Snow should reveal more about how fragile his ZvP really is (against mortal ZvP'ers, Bisu/Stork are a special case anyhow).
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On January 18 2011 17:33 moopie wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2011 11:58 iamho wrote:On January 18 2011 10:46 Goragoth wrote:
Yeah from TLPD:
2011 Shinhan Bank Winners League
ZvP: 7-19 (26.9%)
Obviously something is going on here. Compare that to WL last year:
ZvP: 36-29 (55.4%)
So whether it's the maps or the evolution of the matchup in general, things are looking very different. How is anybody surprised that even Jaedong would be affected by something like this? Not to mention his results against Bisu/Stork in PL were never good to begin with. I'm wondering if somebody can elaborate more on this. Now whenever I see a zvp its just the zerg dieing to speedlots or getting raped 10 minutes in by a protoss ball. Its just zergs getting greedy, trying to get away with more and more econ (expos and drone whoring) and faster tech before pumping out hydras. The norm used to be a sunken colony or two behind a simcity, and then the protoss would have wasted his first 5-6 zealots a-walking into the natural. Toss players finally learned to evolve past throwing away their starting armies for no reason while trying to hit that timing.
I'm not sure if it's just greed. Now this is a very layman's opinion, but it seems to me it's more a matter of not having great sim-cities. More than non-greedy play, it's the sim-cities that really kill the +1 speedlot rush. There's a huge difference between being able to protect your expansions with one or two sunkens, plus the normal requisite speedlings all zergs make at the timing. To zergs, an extra round of drones could mean the difference between getting pwned by the protoss army and destroying it.
Also, it seems that protosses are timing their speedlot rushes earlier than usual. It reminds me of the archon/speedlot rush a couple of years ago that all zergs die to. I'm sure that just like that rush, zergs will eventually find the counter to this one.
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On January 18 2011 12:58 Musoeun wrote:
I thought I'd pull some more numbers relating to the above. I'm looking at maps more than players; this is what we have:
Good for Zerg (3)
Benzene: 13-9 ZvP, 5-6 ZvT
Bloody Ridge: 9-7 ZvP, 3-1 ZvT
Circuit Breaker: 5-3 ZvP, 10-5 ZvT
Good for ZvP/Bad for ZvT (2)
Empire of the Sun (1.0): 3-2 ZvP, 3-5 ZvT
Fortress (overall): 6-1 ZvP, 5-9 ZvT
Fortress (1.1): 3-0 ZvP, 4-7 ZvT
Fortress (SE 2.0): 3-1 ZvP, 1-2 ZvT
Grand Line: 5-2 ZvP, 8-14 ZvT
Bad for ZvP/Good for ZvT (3)
Aztec: 10-20 ZvP, 6-3 ZvT
Icarus: 8-11 ZvP, 9-5 ZvT
La Mancha: 1-3 ZvP, 1-0 ZvT
Average for Zerg (0)
Bad for Zerg (2)
Central Plain: 1-3 ZvP, 0-1 ZvT
Empire of the Sun (overall): 6-10 ZvP, 6-13 ZvT
Empire of the Sun (1.3): 3-3 ZvP, 2-5 ZvT
Empire of the Sun (1.4): 0-5 ZvP, 1-3 ZvT
We've used ten different maps so far (with new versions of a few of them). We're pretty evenly split (5 and 5; 4 and 4 in active maps) between good ZvP maps and bad ZvP maps. So it doesn't seem like results ought to be way off from normal, and yet they are. Part of it is of course the players, as Mortality went through.
Most of it's Aztec. Aztec is a way Protoss happy map, unkind to Terran, and has been in use for three rounds now without modification. And for whatever insane reason, it's seen more Zergs than any other map in play except Icarus. So you've got a -10 (or -11; TLPD says 10-21 overall, which doesn't match my personal record but is probably right) right there. And speaking of Icarus, it's contributed: as a good ZvT map, with ZvP being the Zerg-favored matchup overall, it's a "Zerg map" - even though it's a good PvZ map.
Then on the good ZvP maps, you had either almost no Protoss (Grand Line) or almost no Zerg (Bloody Ridge, and Fortress although this is changing with WL + new version).
So the tl;dr version: Zergs have played most of their ZvP on bad ZvP maps, because the other matchups have tended to limit either the number of Protoss or number of Zerg playing on the good ZvP maps. And then there are lots of Zerg on Aztec for some bizarre reason, throwing it farther out of whack.
For Aztec, the PL results are 10-21 in favor of P, but the Starleague results are 26-13 in favor of Z. Why is that happening? I don't know, but it is. I'm really not sure I'd call it a P > Z map.
Under player stats for Aztec:
#1 Hogil 8-0 (seriously?! Hogil?!), 3-0 ZvP
#2 Hyun 9-2, 3-1 ZvP
#3 Hydra 6-1, 2-0 ZvP
#3 Bisu 6-1, 4-0 PvZ
#5 Stork 5-1, 4-0 PvZ
#6 Shine 7-4, 3-3 ZvP
#6 Calm 6-3, 1-0 ZvP
#6 Brave 4-1, 1-1 PvZ
So I don't know, the results for Bisu and Stork definitely argue a slight Protoss advantage, but I'm not sure if I'd call it a Zerg graveyard.
Actually, with regards to Bloody Ridge, I'm not entirely sure it's good for ZvP. The stats say 9-7 in favor of Zerg, but if you look at whose been playing there, IMO the quality of the Zerg players is slightly higher to begin with. All of them are at least 50% vP. On the Protoss side, you have Perfectman (38% PvZ), Snow (46%), Best (48%), Anytime, Sky (0-2, 4-18 vZ counting prelims), Tyson (39%), and M18M (25%).
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Poland3770 Posts
The funny thing about Stork's and Jaedong's ELO is that Jaedong has higher ELO in all three (vT, vZ, vP) categories than stork and yet his general ELO is lower.
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On January 19 2011 09:31 nimdil wrote:
The funny thing about Stork's and Jaedong's ELO is that Jaedong has higher ELO in all three (vT, vZ, vP) categories than stork and yet his general ELO is lower.
Stork in my definition is "consistency at its finest". 6 years into progamming and still kicking arse! Even when not caring about games, STILL doing better than most players.
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United States10328 Posts
On January 19 2011 10:30 Xiphos wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2011 09:31 nimdil wrote:
The funny thing about Stork's and Jaedong's ELO is that Jaedong has higher ELO in all three (vT, vZ, vP) categories than stork and yet his general ELO is lower. Stork in my definition is "consistency at its finest". 6 years into progaming and still kicking arse! Even when not caring about games, STILL doing better than most players.
Another (not quite as good) example is Midas... though he's hardly a top player anymore 
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On January 19 2011 11:33 ]343[ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2011 10:30 Xiphos wrote:On January 19 2011 09:31 nimdil wrote:
The funny thing about Stork's and Jaedong's ELO is that Jaedong has higher ELO in all three (vT, vZ, vP) categories than stork and yet his general ELO is lower. Stork in my definition is "consistency at its finest". 6 years into progaming and still kicking arse! Even when not caring about games, STILL doing better than most players. Another (not quite as good) example is Midas... though he's hardly a top player anymore
Midas is a qt bear :<. Definitely seeing Stork staying at #1 next month. And Stats entering PR (I mean even HoGiL is on it) and possibly Modesty.
Flash should move up, he's still intimidating as hell, I see him playing ridiculously well every time he's sent out. Poor JD though, he seems to be losing the scare factor, don't see him going above any of the TaekBangLeeSang in February. Unless he pulls out some AKs! Pretty sure more than half the TL BW fan base is rooting for him too~
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Well after updating TLPD tonight I see that since Stork didn't play for KHAN and Jaedong won two matches Jaedong's back at 2...
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I hope Jaedong can stop slumping, we need talented zergs/protoss performing at their peak.
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On January 19 2011 17:20 Lightwip wrote:
I hope Jaedong can stop slumping, we need talented zergs/protoss performing at their peak.
I don't know that I'd say JD is slumping. Sure he dropped a few matches here and there, but his season record is still very solid. Even the best players lose from time to time, it happens.
Also, Hydra has been doing good lately. I guess CJ has a rule about only grooming 1 zerg at a time.
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5930 Posts
On January 19 2011 16:13 flamewheel wrote:
Well after updating TLPD tonight I see that since Stork didn't play for KHAN and Jaedong won two matches Jaedong's back at 2...
What is the power rank a measure of for you? Is it based on pure results, strength of play, or a combination of both? I find it strange that these two specific wins are enough to put Jaedong "back" at #2.
The two wins against Woongjin didn't mean a whole lot...they basically answered everything we already knew:
1) Jaedong is still the best ZvZ player
2) Protoss players, in general, are still dumber than terran and zerg players. Free's recent play in PvZ tends to resemble the old Jaehoon - a really awful player who does hilariously dumb things.
3) Zero is still inconsistent at everything, especially ZvZ.
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I also don't see JD at #2 (for now, month still 1/3 from being over though). He is still performing, but going 0-kills in 2 sets of winner's league?
Since last month's PR:
Flash 6-0 (undefeated since dropping the leagues last month). strong wins against players like Skyhigh, Snow, Bisu.
Bisu 8-3, only losses being to Flash in SWL and dropping out of the MSL to stork.
JD 6-2, Losses to Stork and Violet (on a 3 ZvP losing streak). Was at 0 kills SWL before losing both times.
Stork 10-1, only loss to Hiya (which he still beat in the bo3).
Taek-Bang-Lee-Ssang are all performing very well considering, but I think JD has been performing the weakest of them all (even if he is still in the MSL, his monthly record isn't as solid as it used to be). imo Stork at #1, Flash/Bisu at #2/#3 (pretty close so far) and JD at #4.
edit: bah, ELO. Well, if this Keeps up Bisu and Stork will both pass JD in no time.
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On January 19 2011 17:40 Womwomwom wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2011 16:13 flamewheel wrote:
Well after updating TLPD tonight I see that since Stork didn't play for KHAN and Jaedong won two matches Jaedong's back at 2... What is the power rank a measure of for you? Is it based on pure results, strength of play, or a combination of both? I find it strange that these two specific wins are enough to put Jaedong "back" at #2. The two wins against Woongjin didn't mean a whole lot...they basically answered everything we already knew: 1) Jaedong is still the best ZvZ player 2) Protoss players, in general, are still dumber than terran and zerg players. Free's recent play in PvZ tends to resemble the old Jaehoon - a really awful player who does hilariously dumb things. 3) Zero is still inconsistent at everything, especially ZvZ.
Hint: He was not talking about the PR.
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On January 19 2011 17:54 moopie wrote:
I also don't see JD at #2 (for now, month still 1/3 from being over though). He is still performing, but going 0-kills in 2 sets of winner's league?
Since last month's PR:
Flash 6-0 (undefeated since dropping the leagues last month). strong wins against players like Skyhigh, Snow, Bisu.
Bisu 8-3, only losses being to Flash in SWL and dropping out of the MSL to stork.
JD 6-2, Losses to Stork and Violet (on a 3 ZvP losing streak). Was at 0 kills SWL before losing both times.
Stork 10-1, only loss to Hiya (which he still beat in the bo3).
Taek-Bang-Lee-Ssang are all performing very well considering, but I think JD has been performing the weakest of them all (even if he is still in the MSL, his monthly record isn't as solid as it used to be). imo Stork at #1, Flash/Bisu at #2/#3 (pretty close so far) and JD at #4.
edit: bah, ELO. Well, if this Keeps up Bisu and Stork will both pass JD in no time.
Really? He's not performing as well as he used to be? Are you sure about that? I think the fact that a few other players are doing really well is making Jaedong's record look worse than it is. 6-2 is pretty damn good and in about the range you would expect from Jaedong. He's never been as consistent in PL as Flash, and with rare exceptions of going on a crazy tear he will always drop random games here and there. Counting his win against Midas he's a total 7-2 this month ~78%.
Quick win % (rounded) in '09, the year most people agree was his best year to date (by month):
1 - 71%
2 - 70%
3 - 80%
4 - 53%
5 - 91%
6 - 80%
7 - 61%
8 - 56%
9 - --
10 - 50%
11 - 75%
12 - 81%
So how has his monthly record slipped? Last month he had 67%. All of those numbers are in line with how he has always been performing. His record goes up and down a little but overall is very good. Now I'm not saying that he should be ranked above the rest of TBLS but the one thing that has really changed is that Stork/Bisu are playing better than they have in a long time. If Jaedong doesn't make the MSL finals though, then I'll be willing to agree that he has lost his edge and is slumping.
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On January 19 2011 19:21 Goragoth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 19 2011 17:54 moopie wrote:
I also don't see JD at #2 (for now, month still 1/3 from being over though). He is still performing, but going 0-kills in 2 sets of winner's league?
Since last month's PR:
Flash 6-0 (undefeated since dropping the leagues last month). strong wins against players like Skyhigh, Snow, Bisu.
Bisu 8-3, only losses being to Flash in SWL and dropping out of the MSL to stork.
JD 6-2, Losses to Stork and Violet (on a 3 ZvP losing streak). Was at 0 kills SWL before losing both times.
Stork 10-1, only loss to Hiya (which he still beat in the bo3).
Taek-Bang-Lee-Ssang are all performing very well considering, but I think JD has been performing the weakest of them all (even if he is still in the MSL, his monthly record isn't as solid as it used to be). imo Stork at #1, Flash/Bisu at #2/#3 (pretty close so far) and JD at #4.
edit: bah, ELO. Well, if this Keeps up Bisu and Stork will both pass JD in no time. Really? He's not performing as well as he used to be? Are you sure about that? I think the fact that a few other players are doing really well is making Jaedong's record look worse than it is. 6-2 is pretty damn good and in about the range you would expect from Jaedong. He's never been as consistent in PL as Flash, and with rare exceptions of going on a crazy tear he will always drop random games here and there. Counting his win against Midas he's a total 7-2 this month ~78%. Quick win % (rounded) in '09, the year most people agree was his best year to date (by month): 1 - 71% 2 - 70% 3 - 80% 4 - 53% 5 - 91% 6 - 80% 7 - 61% 8 - 56% 9 - -- 10 - 50% 11 - 75% 12 - 81% So how has his monthly record slipped? Last month he had 67%. All of those numbers are in line with how he has always been performing. His record goes up and down a little but overall is very good. Now I'm not saying that he should be ranked above the rest of TBLS but the one thing that has really changed is that Stork/Bisu are playing better than they have in a long time. If Jaedong doesn't make the MSL finals though, then I'll be willing to agree that he has lost his edge and is slumping
Have you actually watched his games? its not just that he's losing, its the way in which he's losing. JD's recent matches lack the force that made others cower in fear. I never said this started this month btw, its been noticable since around the time he lost to HiyA (in a way he really shouldn't have, even though I <3 HiyA). JD's play has been sloppier than previously. Like I said, he is still showing pretty good results compared to other zergs, but isn't as dominant in his play. If he isn't careful, Hydra is going to snatch his place in the spotlight.
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On January 19 2011 19:43 moopie wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2011 19:21 Goragoth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 19 2011 17:54 moopie wrote:
I also don't see JD at #2 (for now, month still 1/3 from being over though). He is still performing, but going 0-kills in 2 sets of winner's league?
Since last month's PR:
Flash 6-0 (undefeated since dropping the leagues last month). strong wins against players like Skyhigh, Snow, Bisu.
Bisu 8-3, only losses being to Flash in SWL and dropping out of the MSL to stork.
JD 6-2, Losses to Stork and Violet (on a 3 ZvP losing streak). Was at 0 kills SWL before losing both times.
Stork 10-1, only loss to Hiya (which he still beat in the bo3).
Taek-Bang-Lee-Ssang are all performing very well considering, but I think JD has been performing the weakest of them all (even if he is still in the MSL, his monthly record isn't as solid as it used to be). imo Stork at #1, Flash/Bisu at #2/#3 (pretty close so far) and JD at #4.
edit: bah, ELO. Well, if this Keeps up Bisu and Stork will both pass JD in no time. Really? He's not performing as well as he used to be? Are you sure about that? I think the fact that a few other players are doing really well is making Jaedong's record look worse than it is. 6-2 is pretty damn good and in about the range you would expect from Jaedong. He's never been as consistent in PL as Flash, and with rare exceptions of going on a crazy tear he will always drop random games here and there. Counting his win against Midas he's a total 7-2 this month ~78%. Quick win % (rounded) in '09, the year most people agree was his best year to date (by month): 1 - 71% 2 - 70% 3 - 80% 4 - 53% 5 - 91% 6 - 80% 7 - 61% 8 - 56% 9 - -- 10 - 50% 11 - 75% 12 - 81% So how has his monthly record slipped? Last month he had 67%. All of those numbers are in line with how he has always been performing. His record goes up and down a little but overall is very good. Now I'm not saying that he should be ranked above the rest of TBLS but the one thing that has really changed is that Stork/Bisu are playing better than they have in a long time. If Jaedong doesn't make the MSL finals though, then I'll be willing to agree that he has lost his edge and is slumping Have you actually watched his games? its not just that he's losing, its the way in which he's losing. JD's recent matches lack the force that made others cower in fear. I never said this started this month btw, its been noticable since around the time he lost to HiyA (in a way he really shouldn't have, even though I <3 HiyA). JD's play has been sloppier than previously. Like I said, he is still showing pretty good results compared to other zergs, but isn't as dominant in his play. If he isn't careful, Hydra is going to snatch his place in the spotlight.
I'll admit that I haven't watched all his games, but from what I've seen the only game that looked really bad was the one against Hogil. That game was awful and lost entirely on the basis of Jaedong's decision making. Other than that I've seen nothing that looks all that different. He's playing less aggressively than in '09 but that's been the same all through '10 as well. Most of his losses were greed punished by timing pushes, nothing new really (wasn't that how he got 3-0'ed by ForGG in that MSL finals too?). He's always lost some odd games where you have no idea what he's trying to do (the game against Violet recently, those all-in mass muta builds in ZvT that he lost with several times back in '09). His recent game against Baby in SWL looked very good.
Anyway, I touched on this earlier and I'll say it again: Jaedong is first and foremost know for his skill in Bo5 series play, he's always had ups and downs elsewhere but that's where he shines (except against god-mode Flash). If he doesn't take the MSL now that he is in the Bo5 stages (or at least loses to Stork 2-3 in a close final) then we can speculate about his declining form. Ask yourself this: if Bisu and Stork were still slumping as hard as they were last year (which would leave Fantasy at #3 Elo and almost 100 points behind Jaedong) would we really be having this discussion at all? I don't think so, but that's a function of Bisu/Stork improving and catching up to or even overtaking Jaedong, not him failing.
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Purely from the standpoint of record, JD is doing fine. Which is why he's still floating around low 2300's, right where he's been for most of the past 2 years.
With the rise of Stork and Bisu, some of JD's weaknesses appear to be exposed. Combined with some bad play when it mattered (cough, Hogil), JD's aura has diminished somewhat. But the amount that it has diminished is probably disproportional to his actual skill.
Since Power Rank is about "hotness," I would surely tolerate punishing JD for his loss of aura. Since he's continuing to advance in MSL and doing "okay" in Winner's League, I'd also tolerate him not being punished.
Truthfully? I'm leaning towards an order of Stork, Flash, Bisu, JD myself. It's still a bit early to tell for sure. If one of those players flops... all bets are off. However, of the other players, only Fantasy is in a good position for breaking that stranglehold and he's clearly a notch below right now.
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I kind of agree that right now it's Stork, Flash, Bisu and JD. But it depends a little on how much you value the fact that JD is still in a league (and very likely to at least reach the final).
Anything other than a dominating 3-0 rape vs Stork in the OSL finals (and good play in WL) and I have a hard time seeing Fantasy break into Top 4 with TBLS all over 2300 ELO and almost only losing to eachother.
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EPT
