Eight players, five Zergs. Five of the six top Zerg players are alive. I've always enjoyed watching a Zerg play well and destroy a mediocre Terran or Protoss, so this MSL has been fun to watch so far. There have been very few BoX ZvZs in tournaments, and we're going to get plenty over the next few weeks. I know a lot of people roll their eyes at mirrors, but ZvZ is fast-paced, intense, and crazy. Look on the bright side: at least there's no more TvT, at least until the inevitable Iris-Canata finals. A dozen MSL executives just knocked on wood.
Those stats seem pretty lopsided, but they are deceiving. Because they are actually more lopsided. Effort is 11-4 with ten games against Jaedong, Yarnc, and Luxury, going 6-4. Calm on the other hand is 7-6 with one game against those three, which he lost. Calm is new-age good from a trendy STX team and it's easy to cheer for him, but he has zero semifinals appearances. It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same type of mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice. But make no mistake, you can see the finished product in Effort's play, in his series win over Jaedong ZvZ, his PL streaks and Ace Match wins, and his methodical progression through this MSL. Despite the speed bump in his tough-as-nails OSL group, Effort doesn't need destiny or bonjwa juice to power himself past Calm, even if he has to practice for PL and GOM. The split Bo5 helps, but ultimately, Effort is just that much better.Effort, 3-0.
Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-Head Jaedong / ZvT / 7-3 / 6-1 / 1-1 (0-1 in 2009) Canata / TvZ / 8-2 / 7-1 / 1-1 (1-0 in 2009)
Quick, without clicking that spoiler, who has the better ZvT/TvZ stats over the last three months? Canata has silently amassed the best TvZ record in 2009. Perhaps one day he woke up and finally became angry that Fantasy supplanted him. Canata should have been iloveoov 2.0, but instead he's Midas Beta. Newer fans may be asking, "Midas? He played Terran right?" Exactly. This season determines how Canata will be remembered. Will he be that guy who took both leagues by storm in the twilight of his career? Or will he revert to old Canata, disappointment to the SK legacy? If I were a Jaedong fan, I'd be more scared of Canata than any player other than Effort. Yes, scarier than Bisu. I know you're laughing at me. But you'll see when you watch the series. Canata is backed by the SK Legend and a crack FBI team (Fantasy, Boxer, Iloveoov). I'm not going to say Jaedong will lose. He's still the superior player. But Canata will get in his punches, and do far better than many expect. Jaedong, 3-2.
Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-Head Bisu / PvT / 8-2 / 7-2 / 4-5 (0-1 in 2009) Iris / TvP / 6-4 / 4-2 / 5-4 (1-0 in 2009)
Ignore the head-to-head record -- it's ancient. Iris has played over 40 games against the "six dragons" of Brood War. He's 19-22. His TvP has always been solid and aggressive, but never dominant. Iris is a veteran, and he's going to bring it this series. Unfortuantely, he's simply out-gunned. If Bisu just brings the majority his prodigious skills, he'll take this series with ease. Where the other dragons have slipped and slumped, Bisu has remained strong. He's clearly the most accomplished Protoss player ever, but a truly unique place in history eludes him. There are three other guys with three MSLs, and they have six OSL titles between them. Those guys have won three MSLs. Bisu has won three MSLs. Nobody has won four. Bisu is the only one with a real shot at achieving that. Iris is a mere speed bump before the big guns come out. Bisu, 3-1.
Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-Head Kwanro / ZvZ / 5-5 / 6-5 / 2-2 (1-2 in 2009) ZerO / ZvZ / 3-7 / 6-9 / 2-2 (2-1 in 2009)
Zero has shown impressive flair in his ZvP and ZvT, but his ZvZ has been abysmal. He's 3-9 with a seven game PL losing streak. Fortunately for him, he's 2-1 versus Kwanro in this period. The fans probably want to see a Bisu versus Zero semifinal, given that Zero is actually 3-1 versus Bisu, but Kwanro's CJ face doesn't care what the fans want. I've watched every single Kwanro game since Winner's League, and the kid is different now. Something has clicked, and he's finally realizing how to harness at least some of that ridiculous potential CJ saw in him as a youngster. He actually resembles, fittingly, Zero. Not in style, but in mentality -- a few seasons ago Zero finally broke through, past TV nerves and seemingly wasted early potential. That's Kwanro now. Both these guys took a few years before they got to the level where they could contribute consistently in PL and not be flukes in individual leagues. It's a close series, but Zero's recent ZvZ struggles can't be ignored. Kwanro, 3-2.
Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort. The last time JD lost vs Mech was Fantasy. Before that was Ganzi. And before that was Canata.
On July 23 2009 04:31 TwoStep wrote: Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort.
I wont deny that Effort is the huge favorite (I'll even agree to 3-0 being a good prediction), but the preview has tons of phrases that make me sick
"It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice."
On July 23 2009 04:31 TwoStep wrote: Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort.
I wont deny that Effort is the huge favorite (I'll even agree to 3-0 being a good prediction), but the preview has tons of phrases that make me sick
"It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice."
Fucking gross
There is no denying that part of the reason that a lot of people love Effort is that he's Savior's inter-team heir. The same mystique surrounds Fantasy. Please explain to me how stating this fact is "so biased it makes you want to throw up" especially if you agree with the prediction and analysis.
How is it CJ bias when plenty of non-CJ fans agree with the assessment of Effort? Have you been watching the PL R5 and the PL playoffs?
On July 23 2009 04:46 Ideas wrote: I would have to disagree with your statement of CJ-Zergs being similar to SKT Terrans.
Boxer and oov provide the best legacy and rich history of any race on any team. Nobody compares to that. Obviously I'm not saying the legacy is exactly the same.
But I didn't say CJ-Z and SK-T are exactly the same. I'm saying that they the same type of mystique. Plenty of people agree and aren't "throwing up" due to the bias.
It's very pretty romanticism (I've always admired your writing) but please remember some people have similar thoughts about the opposing player
There is no such legacy or history behind Calm. It doesn't even compare. He isn't really considered July's protege, and July never really "belonged" to STX. July will always be, in my mind, an original POS / MBCgame player.
What do you want me to say? Whether its fair or not, Effort clearly has more fans and more hype surrounding him than Calm does. Am I supposed to write an identical paragraph about Calm when it's simply not true? Calm never had a big series win (Effort 2-0 Jaedong in GOM) and his team is out of the PL Playoffs because of Calm's bad play in the super-ace match.
Obviously Calm is good, but just about everyone, even STX fans, would agree he's no Effort in skill or hype. I don't see how saying that should make you "throw up."
On July 23 2009 04:54 Ideas wrote: ah whatever im horrible at writing on the internet
I just hope Calm puts up a good fight :\
If you read my previous newsposts I actually am quite a Calm supporter. I even argued with someone on the forum somewhere that Calm was an elite-level PL player. I've watched his games, I know how good he is.
Yes, I'm a CJ fan. But I predicted Savior to lose in his group. I predict Iris to lose easily against Bisu. I recognize that Effort is an underdog against Bisu and Jaedong (maybe not as much now). I try to write without bias, but sometimes you can't help just a little seeping in. I don't think by any means it was over the top though.
How can you spell Boxer wrong? Nice name for the FBI series.
Though you are correct in the assessment that Canata is hungry for something, and that Jaedong should be worried. All those Jaedong fanboys will cry that he customarily loses the first game, and Canata has the maps going for him which suits to his style for this series.
Midas?!?!? he played toss!! Effort is gonna stomp again. 3/8 are CJ's... i wonder who is gonna win the proleague finals (some more subliminal why Cj will win)
On July 23 2009 04:31 TwoStep wrote: Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort.
I wont deny that Effort is the huge favorite (I'll even agree to 3-0 being a good prediction), but the preview has tons of phrases that make me sick
"It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice."
Fucking gross
Wow, i just was gonnna write exactly the same. Just felt akward.
I agree on the 3-0, i agree on Effort being better (most probably), i actually agree on everything except that a CJ zerg has some special aura . A few players have/had these, it's no team thing.
Btw: For some weird reason, i have NO idea why, i don't like effort... And i like nearly all Zergs.
On July 23 2009 05:47 Phelix wrote: How can you spell Boxer wrong? Nice name for the FBI series.
Though you are correct in the assessment that Canata is hungry for something, and that Jaedong should be worried. All those Jaedong fanboys will cry that he customarily loses the first game, and Canata has the maps going for him which suits to his style for this series.
Ko In Kyu fighting!
Why would we cry after he loses the first game, he always does, he'll probably lose the 2nd one as well only to come back and beat him 3-2. That's how it works.
No, seriously, as a Jaedong fan I am very aware that Canata won't be easy to beat at all and we might see an upset. Although just like against anyone else in the world, he's still the favourite
Canata pretty much ALWAYS goes mech vs Z right? I know that 1 game he went bio vs Savior but that's the only one I can recall. I dont watch too many of his games though just because he's CANATA. I remember watching his game vs by.hero from OSL and being SUPER pissed watching lol.
His lame TvZ may work vs lesser zergs but I don't see him taking more than 1 game off of JD.
the last Bo5 JD lost was to ForGG right? Man, it's hard to believe this is the 1st time JD has made it to the Ro8 of the MSL since Arena MSL.
On July 23 2009 06:19 7mk wrote: Why would we cry after he loses the first game, he always does, he'll probably the 2nd one as well only to come back and beat him 3-2. That's how it works.
That's exactly Jaedong, too.
Awesome writeup, HB. I'm totally stoked, lots of good players up in here and I'm excited to see who will go on and who will get upset in the RO8
Before GOM, I didn't think there would be a question of who Bisu was taking on in the finals when he tries for his 4th MSL...now I think Effort just might beat out Jaedong (again).
Am I the only one with the feeling that Effort's been on a ridiculous, but lucky, tear and will fall spectacularly? I'm thinking Effort gets 0-3'ed in the finals.
Effort has shoes to fill in and so far he's filled those shoes quite nicely, but he's not the next savior. Canata shows promising play and can produce an interesting series but JDs got it in the end. Bisu should easily take the series. And Zero? + Show Spoiler +
Thanks for the stats and write-up Hot_Bid. I agree with your predictions, other than the fact that I think Iris will do a little better against Bisu than you do.
effort is not THAT much better than calm, that is just wrong. well i admit that is is better and should win 3-1(maybe 3-2). also i am a big effort fan so dont tell me "you are biased"
On July 23 2009 12:30 Jaksiel wrote: Where are all these Canata fans coming from? What is remotely interesting about his play?
exactly my thought...
i dont get why an average player like canata who has done nothing in his career gets a lot more love from this forum than Jaedong, a guy who has won on every stage he's put on except for WCG...
i mean this is the same forum that loves their champions... be it Boxer, Nada, Savior or Bisu... and i remember this forum hating on Canata for his boring turtle-style games that get past 45 mins with no action...
so what changed? he got into the Ro8 on both leagues and he gets all the love all of a sudden? the need to cheer for an SK Terran? theres always fantasy and Boxer... is he one of the best guys to talk to after a match? is this just a bandwagon that fans will jump off of once the wheels start falling off?
i'm not hating on him... he's done nothing worth hating... its just im curious what changed to turn him into a well-loved player...
On July 23 2009 12:30 Jaksiel wrote: Where are all these Canata fans coming from? What is remotely interesting about his play?
exactly my thought...
i dont get why an average player like canata who has done nothing in his career gets a lot more love from this forum than Jaedong, a guy who has won on every stage he's put on except for WCG...
i mean this is the same forum that loves their champions... be it Boxer, Nada, Savior or Bisu... and i remember this forum hating on Canata for his boring turtle-style games that get past 45 mins with no action...
so what changed? he got into the Ro8 on both leagues and he gets all the love all of a sudden? the need to cheer for an SK Terran? theres always fantasy and Boxer... is he one of the best guys to talk to after a match? is this just a bandwagon that fans will jump off of once the wheels start falling off?
i'm not hating on him... he's done nothing worth hating... its just im curious what changed to turn him into a well-loved player...
i don't see that happening. there are still far more jaedong fans than canata fans. maybe the reason it seems that many people are choosing canata to beat jaedong, or at least give him a run for his money, is because we all like to see the underdog triumph every once in a while. especially if this underdog had been an under-performing (for about 5 years) yet much hyped decedent of the famed skt terran lineage.
i think zero is gonna face stomp kwanro. yeah hes been ZvZ slumping, but hes shown such sick ZvZ and I think its gonna come back for kwanro.
I agree with the other predictions though. Bisu will crush Iris' agression, and effort will beat calm
I am a bit worried about JD vs Canata... I have a looming feeling canata is gonna do some crazy shit. (hopefully I'm wrong, canata makes me cry with his lameass plays LOL)
On July 23 2009 12:30 Jaksiel wrote: Where are all these Canata fans coming from? What is remotely interesting about his play?
exactly my thought...
i dont get why an average player like canata who has done nothing in his career gets a lot more love from this forum than Jaedong, a guy who has won on every stage he's put on except for WCG...
i mean this is the same forum that loves their champions... be it Boxer, Nada, Savior or Bisu... and i remember this forum hating on Canata for his boring turtle-style games that get past 45 mins with no action...
so what changed? he got into the Ro8 on both leagues and he gets all the love all of a sudden? the need to cheer for an SK Terran? theres always fantasy and Boxer... is he one of the best guys to talk to after a match? is this just a bandwagon that fans will jump off of once the wheels start falling off?
i'm not hating on him... he's done nothing worth hating... its just im curious what changed to turn him into a well-loved player...
His play has changed recently. His last few TvT's iirc he has played aggressively and excitingly (series vs Upmagic for sure). And his TvZ is just so powerful lately as well. But probably the most important factor is that he has made Ro8 in MSL and OSL which has increased his exposure a lot. I guess some fans need someone new to cheer for rather than just same old LJD and KTY. We will see if the hype lasts past these leagues - I predict not (unless perhaps he beats Fantasy in OSL and goes on to win it). Plus this: + Show Spoiler +
On July 23 2009 14:10 cunninglinguists wrote: i don't see that happening. there are still far more jaedong fans than canata fans. maybe the reason it seems that many people are choosing canata to beat jaedong, or at least give him a run for his money, is because we all like to see the underdog triumph every once in a while. especially if this underdog had been an under-performing (for about 5 years) yet much hyped decedent of the famed skt terran lineage.
On July 23 2009 04:28 HatchetWound wrote: the six dragons don't have shit on the six zerglings ^^
zerglings don't really announce or represent their ferocity as strong zerg players, as Dragons do for Protoss. Sticking w/ the theme of powerful and empending danger against a player known as a Dragon (Protoss), perhaps a good comparison or title of an "Omegalisk" would suffice, for the Zergies..
6Dragons much more formidable sounding than 6zerglings.. hell, 3 zealots > 6 zerglings
On July 23 2009 11:41 Grobyc wrote: Thanks for the stats and write-up Hot_Bid. I agree with your predictions, other than the fact that I think Iris will do a little better against Bisu than you do.
Sheesh guys, have you ever taken a course on MASS nouns? It's not Zergs, it's ZERG. Not Pokemons, POKEMON!!!!! The Terran race is the only one of the three that doesn't apply to that standard
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/alffla/avalonMSLbanner_copy.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/SilverskY/MSLAvalonRo8.jpg)
EffOrt vs 
Canata
Bisu vs 
. A few players have/had these, it's no team thing.
