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[MSL] Ro8 Preview: Swarm Season
July 22nd, 2009 19:18 GMT
Banner by alffla
Swarm Season
Avalon MSL Ro8 Preview
Eight players, five Zergs. Five of the six top Zerg players are alive. I've always enjoyed watching a Zerg play well and destroy a mediocre Terran or Protoss, so this MSL has been fun to watch so far. There have been very few BoX ZvZs in tournaments, and we're going to get plenty over the next few weeks. I know a lot of people roll their eyes at mirrors, but ZvZ is fast-paced, intense, and crazy. Look on the bright side: at least there's no more TvT, at least until the inevitable Iris-Canata finals. A dozen MSL executives just knocked on wood.
Current Avalon MSL Round of 8 Bracket
+ Show Spoiler [Avalon MSL Round of 8 Bracket] +
 EffOrt vs Calm
+ Show Spoiler [Statistics] +Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-HeadEffOrt / ZvZ / 7-3 / 11-4 / 1-0 (Dec. 2008) Calm / ZvZ / 6-4 / 7-6 / 0-1
Those stats seem pretty lopsided, but they are deceiving. Because they are actually more lopsided. Effort is 11-4 with ten games against Jaedong, Yarnc, and Luxury, going 6-4. Calm on the other hand is 7-6 with one game against those three, which he lost. Calm is new-age good from a trendy STX team and it's easy to cheer for him, but he has zero semifinals appearances. It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same type of mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice. But make no mistake, you can see the finished product in Effort's play, in his series win over Jaedong ZvZ, his PL streaks and Ace Match wins, and his methodical progression through this MSL. Despite the speed bump in his tough-as-nails OSL group, Effort doesn't need destiny or bonjwa juice to power himself past Calm, even if he has to practice for PL and GOM. The split Bo5 helps, but ultimately, Effort is just that much better.Effort, 3-0.
Jaedong vs  Canata
+ Show Spoiler [Statistics] +Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-HeadJaedong / ZvT / 7-3 / 6-1 / 1-1 (0-1 in 2009) Canata / TvZ / 8-2 / 7-1 / 1-1 (1-0 in 2009)
Quick, without clicking that spoiler, who has the better ZvT/TvZ stats over the last three months? Canata has silently amassed the best TvZ record in 2009. Perhaps one day he woke up and finally became angry that Fantasy supplanted him. Canata should have been iloveoov 2.0, but instead he's Midas Beta. Newer fans may be asking, "Midas? He played Terran right?" Exactly. This season determines how Canata will be remembered. Will he be that guy who took both leagues by storm in the twilight of his career? Or will he revert to old Canata, disappointment to the SK legacy? If I were a Jaedong fan, I'd be more scared of Canata than any player other than Effort. Yes, scarier than Bisu. I know you're laughing at me. But you'll see when you watch the series. Canata is backed by the SK Legend and a crack FBI team (Fantasy, Boxer, Iloveoov). I'm not going to say Jaedong will lose. He's still the superior player. But Canata will get in his punches, and do far better than many expect. Jaedong, 3-2.
 Bisu vs Iris
+ Show Spoiler [Statistics] +Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-Head
Bisu / PvT / 8-2 / 7-2 / 4-5 (0-1 in 2009)
Iris / TvP / 6-4 / 4-2 / 5-4 (1-0 in 2009)
Ignore the head-to-head record -- it's ancient. Iris has played over 40 games against the "six dragons" of Brood War. He's 19-22. His TvP has always been solid and aggressive, but never dominant. Iris is a veteran, and he's going to bring it this series. Unfortuantely, he's simply out-gunned. If Bisu just brings the majority his prodigious skills, he'll take this series with ease. Where the other dragons have slipped and slumped, Bisu has remained strong. He's clearly the most accomplished Protoss player ever, but a truly unique place in history eludes him. There are three other guys with three MSLs, and they have six OSL titles between them. Those guys have won three MSLs. Bisu has won three MSLs. Nobody has won four. Bisu is the only one with a real shot at achieving that. Iris is a mere speed bump before the big guns come out. Bisu, 3-1.
Kwanro vs ZerO
+ Show Spoiler [Statistics] +Player / Matchup / Last 10 / Last 3 Months / Head-to-HeadKwanro / ZvZ / 5-5 / 6-5 / 2-2 (1-2 in 2009) ZerO / ZvZ / 3-7 / 6-9 / 2-2 (2-1 in 2009)
Zero has shown impressive flair in his ZvP and ZvT, but his ZvZ has been abysmal. He's 3-9 with a seven game PL losing streak. Fortunately for him, he's 2-1 versus Kwanro in this period. The fans probably want to see a Bisu versus Zero semifinal, given that Zero is actually 3-1 versus Bisu, but Kwanro's CJ face doesn't care what the fans want. I've watched every single Kwanro game since Winner's League, and the kid is different now. Something has clicked, and he's finally realizing how to harness at least some of that ridiculous potential CJ saw in him as a youngster. He actually resembles, fittingly, Zero. Not in style, but in mentality -- a few seasons ago Zero finally broke through, past TV nerves and seemingly wasted early potential. That's Kwanro now. Both these guys took a few years before they got to the level where they could contribute consistently in PL and not be flukes in individual leagues. It's a close series, but Zero's recent ZvZ struggles can't be ignored. Kwanro, 3-2.
Next: MSL Quarterfinals Week 1
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the six dragons don't have shit on the six zerglings ^^
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Bug type pokemons > dragon type pokemons
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effort vs calm preview is so CJ-biased that it makes me want to throw up
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Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort.
The last time JD lost vs Mech was Fantasy. Before that was Ganzi. And before that was Canata.
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Effort is 11-4 with nine games against Jaedong, Yarnc, and Luxury, going 6-4
errr this doesn't add up.. nine games is either 6-3 or 5-4 
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On July 23 2009 04:31 TwoStep wrote:
Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort.
I wont deny that Effort is the huge favorite (I'll even agree to 3-0 being a good prediction), but the preview has tons of phrases that make me sick
"It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice."
Fucking gross
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On July 23 2009 04:29 QuickSandSlowly wrote:
Bug type pokemons > dragon type pokemons
Ahahahaha!! Truetrue.
The sad realization for me is that watching bug pokemans fight each other isn't nearly as entertaining as watching dragon pokemans do it.
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Oh, I see. That makes sense.
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The split Bo5 helps, but to blunt, Effort is just that much better.Effort, 3-0.
new high thread?
Mod edit: thanks, fixed.
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Braavos36379 Posts
On July 23 2009 04:33 Eti307 wrote:Show nested quote +Effort is 11-4 with nine games against Jaedong, Yarnc, and Luxury, going 6-4 errr this doesn't add up.. nine games is either 6-3 or 5-4
Fixed, it's ten games.
On July 23 2009 04:30 Ideas wrote:
effort vs calm preview is so CJ-biased that it makes me want to throw up
On July 23 2009 04:36 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2009 04:31 TwoStep wrote:
Dude, it's true. Nothing about Calm that's relevant to ZvZ makes it seem like he has a chance against Effort. I wont deny that Effort is the huge favorite (I'll even agree to 3-0 being a good prediction), but the preview has tons of phrases that make me sick "It's just more important to fans that Effort wins. There is something about a CJ Zerg, the same mystique that surrounds an SK Telecom Terran and to a lesser extent a KTF Protoss. Effort follows in the footsteps of giants, and his journey may seem like its more influenced by destiny than practice." Fucking gross
There is no denying that part of the reason that a lot of people love Effort is that he's Savior's inter-team heir. The same mystique surrounds Fantasy. Please explain to me how stating this fact is "so biased it makes you want to throw up" especially if you agree with the prediction and analysis.
How is it CJ bias when plenty of non-CJ fans agree with the assessment of Effort? Have you been watching the PL R5 and the PL playoffs?
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I would have to disagree with your statement of CJ-Zergs being similar to SKT Terrans.
It's very pretty romanticism (I've always admired your writing) but please remember some people have similar thoughts about the opposing player 
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On July 23 2009 04:46 Ideas wrote:I would have to disagree with your statement of CJ-Zergs being similar to SKT Terrans. It's very pretty romanticism (I've always admired your writing) but please remember some people have similar thoughts about the opposing player
So basically you're also biased. Except non-CJ and non-STX fans would probably agree with Hot_Bid's assessment.
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9070 Posts
I expect a massive "meh, JD always loses the first game" wave tomorrow
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Braavos36379 Posts
On July 23 2009 04:46 Ideas wrote:
I would have to disagree with your statement of CJ-Zergs being similar to SKT Terrans.
Boxer and oov provide the best legacy and rich history of any race on any team. Nobody compares to that. Obviously I'm not saying the legacy is exactly the same.
But I didn't say CJ-Z and SK-T are exactly the same. I'm saying that they the same type of mystique. Plenty of people agree and aren't "throwing up" due to the bias.
It's very pretty romanticism (I've always admired your writing) but please remember some people have similar thoughts about the opposing player
There is no such legacy or history behind Calm. It doesn't even compare. He isn't really considered July's protege, and July never really "belonged" to STX. July will always be, in my mind, an original POS / MBCgame player.
What do you want me to say? Whether its fair or not, Effort clearly has more fans and more hype surrounding him than Calm does. Am I supposed to write an identical paragraph about Calm when it's simply not true? Calm never had a big series win (Effort 2-0 Jaedong in GOM) and his team is out of the PL Playoffs because of Calm's bad play in the super-ace match.
Obviously Calm is good, but just about everyone, even STX fans, would agree he's no Effort in skill or hype. I don't see how saying that should make you "throw up."
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ah whatever im horrible at writing on the internet
I just hope Calm puts up a good fight :\
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The only notable history Calm has is of making one sunken no ling vs. Hwasin in a foreign tournament.
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Braavos36379 Posts
On July 23 2009 04:54 Ideas wrote:
ah whatever im horrible at writing on the internet
I just hope Calm puts up a good fight :\
If you read my previous newsposts I actually am quite a Calm supporter. I even argued with someone on the forum somewhere that Calm was an elite-level PL player. I've watched his games, I know how good he is.
Yes, I'm a CJ fan. But I predicted Savior to lose in his group. I predict Iris to lose easily against Bisu. I recognize that Effort is an underdog against Bisu and Jaedong (maybe not as much now). I try to write without bias, but sometimes you can't help just a little seeping in. I don't think by any means it was over the top though.
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No worries, nothing was over the top, on the contrary. Good write-ups.
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Bearded Elder29903 Posts
It's Canata's MSL and OSL !!!
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