With its Ro16 field set and Group Selection Ceremony complete, the "real OSL" — StarCraft's premier event from its earliest form, the 1999 Tooniverse Progamer Korean Open — is finally upon us. Professional Brood War's ever-intensifying competitiveness means each OSL Round of 16 is more difficult to crack, and boasts a stronger lineup, than the last. This Ro16 is no exception: even in the wake of the drama-filled Batoo OSL and at the crest of a flurry of StarCraft 2-related news, the Bacchus OSL 2009's deep talent pool guarantees its final stages will make a giant splash (can you take this sentence seriously? I can't).
Streaks and Slumps (Chutes and Ladders)
The Bacchus OSL 2009's Ro36 ran alongside nearly two months of GOM, MST, MSL, and Proleague action — more than enough games to significantly alter our impressions of its Ro16 field since their qualifying matches. Which players have slid from legitimate contender-ship into underwhelming slumps, and which have advanced towards champion-level play? The Chutes and Ladders board (inspiration for an unhealthy amount of frustration and poor sportsmanship in my childhood) reveals all!
Down chutes:
ZerO (87 → 24) is in freefall. Trouncing Iron and Kal in the Ro36's Group B brought Zero to 13-2 in the current SC season and, quite conspicuously, to the May Power Rank's 3-slot. Since then (May 5), he's gone 5-12 with two losses each to OversKy and Tempest — not the most intimidating vZ players, to say the least. Zero pulled himself together to put on a decent performance in the Lost Saga MSL, but he'll need to dig deep to repeat that feat from this string of sloppy, confused, and helpless play.
YellOw[ArnC] (62 → 19) made quick work of challenger Light in his Ro36 group, but his 2-0 victory is sandwiched by six rather pathetic losses which seem to prove ZvT remains his only satisfactory matchup. Most disturbing, though, is that in recent weeks Yarnc has seen his once-guaranteed spot in Hite's lineup go to HoGiL, go.go, and even scrubs like Type-b and Justin.
Kwanro (49 → 11) capitalized on awful performances from Casy and GGPlay to 4-0 his Ro36 group and thereby cap a 17-3 spring streak, but is 2-5 since — and playing dumb enough to make that run look like a miracle in hindsight. Against most smart, patient, and practiced players Kwanro's near-mindless aggression fails hard: see his recent set vs. Violet, a frenzy of doomed drops on God's Garden.
Up ladders:
EffOrt (28 → 84) is on the fast track (that massive ladder that my brother always landed on) to BW greatness, and suddenly a favorite to win any one of GOM S3, the Avalon MSL, and this OSL. Effort's recent hiccup against Iron in PL included, he's 14-2 since 4-0ing his Ro36 group — a streak that sports a win over the very same opponent he'll face in his OSL Ro16 debut tonight: one Lee Jaedong.
Canata (23 → 42) is an enigma. He's wildly inconsistent both across matchups (at one time possessing the world's strongest TvT, but never cracking .500 against Protoss) and time (his GOMTV MSL S1 qualification and Arena MSL run bore the mark of a great T1 Terran, but he finished 2008 on a 2-8 dive that included a pathetic 0-2 loss to ToSky in GOM). Though he's splitting Proleague sets with Best and has enjoyed some flukey wins lately, Canata is playing with a bit of that rare swagger that has traditionally separated him from the success that seems almost innate in Boxer, iloveoov, and Fantasy.
go.go (38 → 44) followed up his Ro16 qualification by beating his way through the Avalon MSL's Wild Card tournament (past Lomo, by.hero, and 815) and finally earning a few appearances in Hite's Proleague lineup.
Royal Road Traffic Report
The Ro36 was cruel to the Bacchus OSL 2009's 10 royal road candidates. Lomo, GuemChi, Juni, s2, and Roro each performed approximately as well as expected (none advanced), but even promising up-and-comers Hyvaa and Hogil failed to qualify for this Ro16. Here are the three royal roaders who did:
type-b is the Ro16's biggest surprise and also its biggest underdog. How big? This kid was playing Minor League games as recently as May 15. Sure, he was undefeated over his Minor League stint — 4-0, with wins versus studs PuMa (eSTRO Terran) and Miso_LT (CJ Zerg) — and has since returned to making occasional Proleague appearances for Hite, but Type-b will need to play the games of his young SC career to prove he belongs in this elite 16.
Kwanro has a much more impressive resume than Type-b, yet also seems outclassed in this Ro16 field. The most compelling reason not to count him out is simple: he's playing for CJ Entus, a team with nigh-unstoppable momentum in both the Proleague and Starleagues. In Iris (GOM, MSL), Savior (MSL), Effort (GOM, MSL, OSL), Skyhigh (GOM, MSL), Much (GOM), and Movie (MSL), Kwanro has a veritable army of teammates who are also still active in this season's individual leagues — and thus eager, skilled practice partners
ZerO remains the Bacchus OSL 2009's most promising royal road candidate. He absolutely dismantled Kwanro in GOM to keep this distinction which, considering his recent level of play, isn't really worth celebrating. Put it all together: if Zero is leading their charge into the Ro16, none of this OSL's rookies is likely to end his royal road run a champion.
(Note: A → B indicates player A picked player B at Group Selection)
Group A is far and away the Bacchus OSL 2009's toughest, and probably its most exciting. If one of Effort and Jaedong does not qualify, the title of world's best Zerg will have been settled (for a time) in the OSL's Ro16 — a relatively small stage for such a titanic battle. Jaedong's decision to pull his white-hot CJ rival into Group A seems questionable (if it's a Zerg opponent he wanted, Type-b or Kwanro would do), but I think it's actually Flash who will regret his performance at last week's Group Selection Ceremony most.
Fake Yellow in Group A: Flash's downfall?
By adding Yarnc to a group that, at the time of his pick, included both Jaedong and Effort, Flash accepted a massive handicap and seriously jeopardized his chances at a quarterfinal berth. Because Yarnc's ZvT is far superior to his ZvZ, and Jaedong and Effort are the world's premier Zerg versus Zerg players, Fake Yellow will give Flash a competitive game but roll over and die for both of Group A's other players. And thus while Yarnc is (rightfully) being left out of most Ro8 predictions, his presence in Group A may prove the primary determinant of the quarterfinalists it produces.
Group B is a playground for Fantasy and his world-best TvP. Since routing Bisu 3-0 in the Batoo OSL semis Fantasy has been on fire against Protoss, going 8-1 and generating two of this season's best games against JangBiand Movie. I expect Fantasy's sublime vulture play to make short work of BackHo and even Stork, who will face a much more well-rounded opponent than the royal roader he edged 3-2 to win the Incruit OSL.
Stork is also a favorite to advance (as usual), but BackHo and Type-b may actually prove decent competition: BackHo's cleanest matchup is PvP, and Type-b showed a much-improved ZvP in his Ro36 group (against Pure and Best) and has a (short) history of upsetting Stork in important sets. I would not be surprised to see BackHo bumble his way into yet another OSL Ro8 — his meeting with Stork will be the crucial game in this group.
Outside of Bisu, Group C's lineup is underwhelming. go.go has posted great results against mediocre opponents but loses to top-tier players with unparalleled consistency. He also hasn't faced a Protoss since April (if it wasn't for his arrogance, this would make me suspect cheese against Bisu in Group C's opener later tonight).
Hwasin and Zero have opposite histories against Kim Taekyong: though he just put on a surprisingly strong show against Bisu on Outsider in a rare PL R5 appearance, Hwasin will forever be KTY's favorite Starleague punching bag. Zero, on the other hand, was responsible for sending Bisu home from the Lost Saga MSL's Ro32 (their only meeting in an individual league). Assuming go.go continues to fail against OSL-caliber players, whichever of Zero and Hwasin brings his A-game is the obvious favorite to qualify behind Bisu from Group C. Hwasin is the safe bet here — and no Starleague is complete without a crushing quarterfinals loss for the Red Sniper.
Group D, like Group C (and B, to an extent), holds one clear favorite — Leta — and three fairly evenly-matched players to contend for the group's remaining Ro8 slot. Given that Canata is always a threat in TvT and by.hero is at least capable of S-class ZvT (recall his hard-fought win vs. Leta in last OSL's Ro16, a likely reason hero drew Leta into this group), I do not think Leta will advance from this group undefeated. Group D's second qualifier will probably be whoever is responsible for Leta's loss — and right now the smart money has to be on Canata, considering his proven TvT and unexpectedly solid performance against UpMagic in the Ro36.
Under the radar…into the Ro8?
Patterns in group construction at the Bacchus OSL 2009's Group Selection Ceremony suggest that its field is more interested in drama and rivalry than easy opponents — a tendency that is beneficial to us the viewers…and one Ko Inkyu. As one of the most boring, persona-less longtime players in BW history, Canata was, naturally, the one Ro16 qualifier not selected into any group. Defaulting to the Ro16's last slot (in Group D) means no Protoss opponents and no drama: favorable conditions for Canata's advancement to the quarterfinals.
Kim Taekyong demonstrates the Heimlich Maneuver on go.go, who is likely to need some medical attention after their Ro16 set tonight
Photo credit: Fomos
I apologize for this article's late publication! Speedy readers will have well enough time to check it out before Ro16 play kicks off tonight (with one of its most hotly-anticipated matchups, Jaedong vs. Effort). Since 18:30 KST is just past my:bedtime PDT, I'll miss these games live. Here's to sweet dreams (of Bisu wiping the floor with that punk go.go).
That was one fucking kickass writeup. Especially like the part with the chutes and ladders.
But overall as a whole your writeup was really nice. It seemed to take into consideration most underlying things within each group, covering many possibilities while at the same time giving your predictions and insight.
But I think that YarnC and Jaedong will be the ones who pass trough group A... and YarnC will be the bigest upset of this OSL. I think that Effort is going to fail under the pressure (I hope not).
Anyways it doesn't matter cause this is the BackHo's OSL
But even if by some miracle Effort gets through and Jaedong doesn't, I would not be ready to suddenly proclaim Effort the world's best Zerg. You're always so trigger-happy, JWD.
On June 24 2009 13:38 Roffles wrote: That was one fucking kickass writeup. Especially like the part with the chutes and ladders.
But overall as a whole your writeup was really nice. It seemed to take into consideration most underlying things within each group, covering many possibilities while at the same time giving your predictions and insight.
Poor Yarnc is going to make it out of that group!. =(
Group A really feels like a waste. It's always a finals before the finals and it seems like it's never the two best players that make it to the end. Jaedong, Flash and Effort are so closely matched that it's hard to tell who is going to make it out. I would have thought Effort and Jaedong until Effort lost to Iron -_-
Also, it feels like you aren't giving Canata enough credit. He has been winning lately and playing decently in all three matchups. I feel like he will make it to the next round easily.
Leta is overrated, I dont remember the last game he won where he didn't cheese. I expect Canata to roll him (as well as kwanro, maybe by.hero). Group D is by far the closest group of the lot imo. Jaedong will lose in Group A, he carries the burden of the winners curse. EffOrt will win the group 3-0 with Flash coming in second. go.go is going to cheese Bisu and everyone's going to be like "Bisu -.-!!!"
HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA I love that pic it looks like flash is doing tae-kwon-do. The writeup was excellent and that bisu/gogo picture is also hilarious. Looking forward to bisu vs. hwasin
What a wonderful picture to end that off with. Bravo.
Maybe Leta is overrated, and putting him as anti is slaughtering my points, but Kwanro? .. At least Leta has performed solidly against some actually good zergs. By the way, is wraith play against zerg cheese?
STK1's depth, especially the type of depth that they need to win Proleague Grand final, scares me. I don't think they have enough of it. Canata is such a wild card, but I guess him making it into the Ro8 would maintain the recent tradition of a load of SKT1 players making it to the Ro8 in the OSL.
Nice writeup JWD.
Here's to an OSL that's not like the last Bacchus.
wow double orgazm just finished reading the canata resume impressive work jwd really interesting and logical the analysing of group a was a real joy keep the good job and great work again !!!
On June 24 2009 15:46 NaP- wrote: hi there, i'm new to the website and i would like to know how u can watch those awesome game incoming online? Thx a lot
Try to use the search function - it should lead you to the thread related to the event, where results will be posted and means of watching are made available in the first post.
Great read I love how you gave each group a story, I was previously unconvinced of your position on the TL writing staff roster. No doubts now man, great write up.
Excellent piece of writing, I am so considerably more excited about the Ro 16 now than six minutes ago! JWD-GG & may Jaedong claim his win Effort-lessly :D
On June 24 2009 14:36 ghostWriter wrote: Also, it feels like you aren't giving Canata enough credit. He has been winning lately and playing decently in all three matchups. I feel like he will make it to the next round easily.
I thought I repped Canata pretty well, all things considered. I do expect him to qualify and he has been playing solid SC lately, but it's hard to have faith in someone with such a long history of failing at approximately the Ro16 in every Starleague he's ever qualified for.
Thanks for all of the comments guys, I'm really glad you enjoyed this article!
On June 24 2009 14:36 ghostWriter wrote: Also, it feels like you aren't giving Canata enough credit. He has been winning lately and playing decently in all three matchups. I feel like he will make it to the next round easily.
I thought I repped Canata pretty well, all things considered. I do expect him to qualify and he has been playing solid SC lately, but it's hard to have faith in someone with such a long history of failing at approximately the Ro16 in every Starleague he's ever qualified for.
Thanks for all of the comments guys, I'm really glad you enjoyed this article!
Jaedong's decision to pull his white-hot CJ rival into Group A seems questionable (if it's a Zerg opponent he wanted, Type-b or Kwanro would do), but I think it's actually Flash who will regret his performance at last week's Group Selection Ceremony most.
I was under the impression that JD did not want a Zerg opponent, but picked Effort precisely because he was playing so well and got a win off of him. So I don't see how it's questionable in the sense that Jaedong simply wants to play Effort straight away, perhaps (though I personally doubt it) jeopardizing his Ro8 berth.
Jaedong's decision to pull his white-hot CJ rival into Group A seems questionable (if it's a Zerg opponent he wanted, Type-b or Kwanro would do), but I think it's actually Flash who will regret his performance at last week's Group Selection Ceremony most.
I was under the impression that JD did not want a Zerg opponent, but picked Effort precisely because he was playing so well and got a win off of him. So I don't see how it's questionable in the sense that Jaedong simply wants to play Effort straight away, perhaps (though I personally doubt it) jeopardizing his Ro8 berth.
Aside from that fussy point, excellent writeup.
You are correct, JD did say in the group selections that he DIDN'T want to play zvz, but picked effort only because he was playing so well, and had taken a game off of him. Jaedong then said that he hopes effort will not pick another zerg, so he can steer clear of zvz's
Excellent writeup, really liked the chutes & ladders section ;D it's always fun to read other people's predictions, though now it seems they went somewhat wrong but being right is not the point.
Jaedong's decision to pull his white-hot CJ rival into Group A seems questionable (if it's a Zerg opponent he wanted, Type-b or Kwanro would do), but I think it's actually Flash who will regret his performance at last week's Group Selection Ceremony most.
I was under the impression that JD did not want a Zerg opponent, but picked Effort precisely because he was playing so well and got a win off of him. So I don't see how it's questionable in the sense that Jaedong simply wants to play Effort straight away, perhaps (though I personally doubt it) jeopardizing his Ro8 berth.
Aside from that fussy point, excellent writeup.
You are correct, JD did say in the group selections that he DIDN'T want to play zvz, but picked effort only because he was playing so well, and had taken a game off of him. Jaedong then said that he hopes effort will not pick another zerg, so he can steer clear of zvz's
Ah thanks for the information guys. My bit about JD wanting a Zerg opponent was just speculation - now I know (my fault for not reading all of the Group Selection Ceremony translation).
On June 25 2009 15:17 pharmer. wrote: gogo doubters eat your words
What? go.go has a fan??
I just don't get this. It's seriously giving me a headache -- how can, just, how can go.go have fans?! It just doesn't make sense. I mean, I know Bisu can have anti-fans, but...Go.go can't have regular fans, he's go.go!
On June 24 2009 14:37 Plexa wrote: Leta is overrated, I dont remember the last game he won where he didn't cheese. I expect Canata to roll him (as well as kwanro, maybe by.hero). Group D is by far the closest group of the lot imo. Jaedong will lose in Group A, he carries the burden of the winners curse. EffOrt will win the group 3-0 with Flash coming in second. go.go is going to cheese Bisu and everyone's going to be like "Bisu -.-!!!"
On June 26 2009 03:57 Avidkeystamper wrote: When has Jaedong ever fallen to the "winner's curse". Man has inhuman work ethics that I can barely dream of.
Well i guess his curse is losing 2 games in a row then ragging and killing people.. err teamates
On June 25 2009 16:23 JWD wrote: What? go.go has a fan??
I just don't get this. It's seriously giving me a headache -- how can, just, how can go.go have fans?! It just doesn't make sense. I mean, I know Bisu can have anti-fans, but...Go.go can't have regular fans, he's go.go!
Actually go.go seems to have a fairly large fanbase, if the MSL Group was anything to go by. Playing Flash, no less. Was a mite confusing.
On June 24 2009 13:11 JWD wrote: Fake Yellow in Group A: Flash's downfall?
By adding Yarnc to a group that, at the time of his pick, included both Jaedong and Effort, Flash accepted a massive handicap and seriously jeopardized his chances at a quarterfinal berth. Because Yarnc's ZvT is far superior to his ZvZ, and Jaedong and Effort are the world's premier Zerg versus Zerg players, Fake Yellow will give Flash a competitive game but roll over and die for both of Group A's other players. And thus while Yarnc is (rightfully) being left out of most Ro8 predictions, his presence in Group A may prove the primary determinant of the quarterfinalists it produces.
On June 27 2009 14:47 n.DieJokes wrote: Type-B isn't a damn scrub
I don't think I underrated him:
On June 24 2009 13:11 JWD wrote: Stork is also a favorite to advance (as usual), but BackHo and Type-b may actually prove decent competition: BackHo's cleanest matchup is PvP, and Type-b showed a much-improved ZvP in his Ro36 group (against Pure and Best) and has a (short) history of upsetting Stork in important sets.
Also, type-b is a scrub in the sense that he's totally unaccomplished relative to Yarnc or any of the other Ro16 qualifiers.
EPT![[image loading]](/staff/Daigomi/Banner__BacchusOSL__v1h.jpg)
![[image loading]](/staff/JWD/bacchus_osl_s2/3_1.jpg)
ZerO (87 → 24) is in freefall. Trouncing Iron and Kal in the Ro36's Group B brought Zero to 13-2 in the current SC season and, quite conspicuously, to the May Power Rank's 3-slot. Since then (May 5), he's gone 5-12 with two losses each to OversKy and Tempest — not the most intimidating vZ players, to say the least. Zero pulled himself together to put on a decent performance in the Lost Saga MSL, but he'll need to dig deep to repeat that feat from this string of sloppy, confused, and helpless play.
Canata (23 → 42) is an enigma. He's wildly inconsistent both across matchups (at one time possessing the world's strongest TvT, but never cracking .500 against Protoss) and time (his GOMTV MSL S1 qualification and Arena MSL run bore the mark of a great T1 Terran, but he finished 2008 on a 2-8 dive that included a pathetic 0-2 loss to ToSky in GOM). Though he's splitting Proleague sets with Best and has enjoyed some flukey wins lately, Canata is playing with a bit of that rare swagger that has traditionally separated him from the success that seems almost innate in Boxer, iloveoov, and Fantasy.![[image loading]](/staff/JWD/bacchus_osl_s2/3_3.jpg)
![[image loading]](/staff/JWD/bacchus_osl_s2/3_4.jpg)
BackHo → ![[image loading]](/staff/JWD/bacchus_osl_s2/3_5.jpg)
![[image loading]](/staff/JWD/bacchus_osl_s2/3_2.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/3182/fffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuu.png)
