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[OSL] Sweet Sixteen

Forum Index > News
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[OSL] Sweet Sixteen

Text byJWD
June 24th, 2009 04:11 GMT
[image loading]

Mad props to SilverskY, Daigomi


With its Ro16 field set and Group Selection Ceremony complete, the "real OSL" — StarCraft's premier event from its earliest form, the 1999 Tooniverse Progamer Korean Open — is finally upon us. Professional Brood War's ever-intensifying competitiveness means each OSL Round of 16 is more difficult to crack, and boasts a stronger lineup, than the last. This Ro16 is no exception: even in the wake of the drama-filled Batoo OSL and at the crest of a flurry of StarCraft 2-related news, the Bacchus OSL 2009's deep talent pool guarantees its final stages will make a giant splash (can you take this sentence seriously? I can't).




Streaks and Slumps (Chutes and Ladders)

The Bacchus OSL 2009's Ro36 ran alongside nearly two months of GOM, MST, MSL, and Proleague action — more than enough games to significantly alter our impressions of its Ro16 field since their qualifying matches. Which players have slid from legitimate contender-ship into underwhelming slumps, and which have advanced towards champion-level play? The Chutes and Ladders board (inspiration for an unhealthy amount of frustration and poor sportsmanship in my childhood) reveals all!

[image loading]

Down chutes:

(Z)ZerO (87 → 24) is in freefall. Trouncing Iron and Kal in the Ro36's Group B brought Zero to 13-2 in the current SC season and, quite conspicuously, to the May Power Rank's 3-slot. Since then (May 5), he's gone 5-12 with two losses each to OversKy and Tempest — not the most intimidating vZ players, to say the least. Zero pulled himself together to put on a decent performance in the Lost Saga MSL, but he'll need to dig deep to repeat that feat from this string of sloppy, confused, and helpless play.

(Z)YellOw[ArnC] (62 → 19) made quick work of challenger Light in his Ro36 group, but his 2-0 victory is sandwiched by six rather pathetic losses which seem to prove ZvT remains his only satisfactory matchup. Most disturbing, though, is that in recent weeks Yarnc has seen his once-guaranteed spot in Hite's lineup go to HoGiL, go.go, and even scrubs like Type-b and Justin.

(Z)Kwanro (49 → 11) capitalized on awful performances from Casy and GGPlay to 4-0 his Ro36 group and thereby cap a 17-3 spring streak, but is 2-5 since — and playing dumb enough to make that run look like a miracle in hindsight. Against most smart, patient, and practiced players Kwanro's near-mindless aggression fails hard: see his recent set vs. Violet, a frenzy of doomed drops on God's Garden.

Up ladders:

(Z)EffOrt (28 → 84) is on the fast track (that massive ladder that my brother always landed on) to BW greatness, and suddenly a favorite to win any one of GOM S3, the Avalon MSL, and this OSL. Effort's recent hiccup against Iron in PL included, he's 14-2 since 4-0ing his Ro36 group — a streak that sports a win over the very same opponent he'll face in his OSL Ro16 debut tonight: one Lee Jaedong.

(T)Canata (23 → 42) is an enigma. He's wildly inconsistent both across matchups (at one time possessing the world's strongest TvT, but never cracking .500 against Protoss) and time (his GOMTV MSL S1 qualification and Arena MSL run bore the mark of a great T1 Terran, but he finished 2008 on a 2-8 dive that included a pathetic 0-2 loss to ToSky in GOM). Though he's splitting Proleague sets with Best and has enjoyed some flukey wins lately, Canata is playing with a bit of that rare swagger that has traditionally separated him from the success that seems almost innate in Boxer, iloveoov, and Fantasy.

(T)go.go (38 → 44) followed up his Ro16 qualification by beating his way through the Avalon MSL's Wild Card tournament (past Lomo, by.hero, and 815) and finally earning a few appearances in Hite's Proleague lineup.




Royal Road Traffic Report

[image loading]

The Ro36 was cruel to the Bacchus OSL 2009's 10 royal road candidates. Lomo, GuemChi, Juni, s2, and Roro each performed approximately as well as expected (none advanced), but even promising up-and-comers Hyvaa and Hogil failed to qualify for this Ro16. Here are the three royal roaders who did:

(Z)type-b is the Ro16's biggest surprise and also its biggest underdog. How big? This kid was playing Minor League games as recently as May 15. Sure, he was undefeated over his Minor League stint — 4-0, with wins versus studs PuMa (eSTRO Terran) and Miso_LT (CJ Zerg) — and has since returned to making occasional Proleague appearances for Hite, but Type-b will need to play the games of his young SC career to prove he belongs in this elite 16.

(Z)Kwanro has a much more impressive resume than Type-b, yet also seems outclassed in this Ro16 field. The most compelling reason not to count him out is simple: he's playing for CJ Entus, a team with nigh-unstoppable momentum in both the Proleague and Starleagues. In Iris (GOM, MSL), Savior (MSL), Effort (GOM, MSL, OSL), Skyhigh (GOM, MSL), Much (GOM), and Movie (MSL), Kwanro has a veritable army of teammates who are also still active in this season's individual leagues — and thus eager, skilled practice partners

(Z)ZerO remains the Bacchus OSL 2009's most promising royal road candidate. He absolutely dismantled Kwanro in GOM to keep this distinction which, considering his recent level of play, isn't really worth celebrating. Put it all together: if Zero is leading their charge into the Ro16, none of this OSL's rookies is likely to end his royal road run a champion.



(Note: A → B indicates player A picked player B at Group Selection)

Group A Preview

The Players: (Z)Jaedong → (Z)EffOrt → (T)Flash → (Z)YellOw[ArnC]

Group A is far and away the Bacchus OSL 2009's toughest, and probably its most exciting. If one of Effort and Jaedong does not qualify, the title of world's best Zerg will have been settled (for a time) in the OSL's Ro16 — a relatively small stage for such a titanic battle. Jaedong's decision to pull his white-hot CJ rival into Group A seems questionable (if it's a Zerg opponent he wanted, Type-b or Kwanro would do), but I think it's actually Flash who will regret his performance at last week's Group Selection Ceremony most.

[image loading]

Fake Yellow in Group A: Flash's downfall?

By adding Yarnc to a group that, at the time of his pick, included both Jaedong and Effort, Flash accepted a massive handicap and seriously jeopardized his chances at a quarterfinal berth. Because Yarnc's ZvT is far superior to his ZvZ, and Jaedong and Effort are the world's premier Zerg versus Zerg players, Fake Yellow will give Flash a competitive game but roll over and die for both of Group A's other players. And thus while Yarnc is (rightfully) being left out of most Ro8 predictions, his presence in Group A may prove the primary determinant of the quarterfinalists it produces.




Group B Preview

The Players: (T)fantasy → (P)BackHo → (Z)type-b → (P)Stork

Group B is a playground for Fantasy and his world-best TvP. Since routing Bisu 3-0 in the Batoo OSL semis Fantasy has been on fire against Protoss, going 8-1 and generating two of this season's best games against JangBi and Movie. I expect Fantasy's sublime vulture play to make short work of BackHo and even Stork, who will face a much more well-rounded opponent than the royal roader he edged 3-2 to win the Incruit OSL.

Stork is also a favorite to advance (as usual), but BackHo and Type-b may actually prove decent competition: BackHo's cleanest matchup is PvP, and Type-b showed a much-improved ZvP in his Ro36 group (against Pure and Best) and has a (short) history of upsetting Stork in important sets. I would not be surprised to see BackHo bumble his way into yet another OSL Ro8 — his meeting with Stork will be the crucial game in this group.




Group C Preview

The Players: (P)Bisu → (T)go.go → (T)Hwasin → (Z)ZerO

Outside of Bisu, Group C's lineup is underwhelming. go.go has posted great results against mediocre opponents but loses to top-tier players with unparalleled consistency. He also hasn't faced a Protoss since April (if it wasn't for his arrogance, this would make me suspect cheese against Bisu in Group C's opener later tonight).

Hwasin and Zero have opposite histories against Kim Taekyong: though he just put on a surprisingly strong show against Bisu on Outsider in a rare PL R5 appearance, Hwasin will forever be KTY's favorite Starleague punching bag. Zero, on the other hand, was responsible for sending Bisu home from the Lost Saga MSL's Ro32 (their only meeting in an individual league). Assuming go.go continues to fail against OSL-caliber players, whichever of Zero and Hwasin brings his A-game is the obvious favorite to qualify behind Bisu from Group C. Hwasin is the safe bet here — and no Starleague is complete without a crushing quarterfinals loss for the Red Sniper.




Group D Preview

The Players: (Z)by.hero → (T)Leta → (Z)Kwanro, (T)Canata

Group D, like Group C (and B, to an extent), holds one clear favorite — Leta — and three fairly evenly-matched players to contend for the group's remaining Ro8 slot. Given that Canata is always a threat in TvT and by.hero is at least capable of S-class ZvT (recall his hard-fought win vs. Leta in last OSL's Ro16, a likely reason hero drew Leta into this group), I do not think Leta will advance from this group undefeated. Group D's second qualifier will probably be whoever is responsible for Leta's loss — and right now the smart money has to be on Canata, considering his proven TvT and unexpectedly solid performance against UpMagic in the Ro36.

[image loading]

Under the radar…into the Ro8?

Patterns in group construction at the Bacchus OSL 2009's Group Selection Ceremony suggest that its field is more interested in drama and rivalry than easy opponents — a tendency that is beneficial to us the viewers…and one Ko Inkyu. As one of the most boring, persona-less longtime players in BW history, Canata was, naturally, the one Ro16 qualifier not selected into any group. Defaulting to the Ro16's last slot (in Group D) means no Protoss opponents and no drama: favorable conditions for Canata's advancement to the quarterfinals.




One More Thing:

                                + Show Spoiler [Bisu-go.go preview] +
[image loading]

Kim Taekyong demonstrates the Heimlich Maneuver on go.go, who is likely to need some medical attention after their Ro16 set tonight

                                                                                                      Photo credit: Fomos




I apologize for this article's late publication! Speedy readers will have well enough time to check it out before Ro16 play kicks off tonight (with one of its most hotly-anticipated matchups, Jaedong vs. Effort). Since 18:30 KST is just past my:bedtime PDT, I'll miss these games live. Here's to sweet dreams (of Bisu wiping the floor with that punk go.go).

Peace,
JWD
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Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
June 24 2009 04:38 GMT
#2
That was one fucking kickass writeup. Especially like the part with the chutes and ladders.

But overall as a whole your writeup was really nice. It seemed to take into consideration most underlying things within each group, covering many possibilities while at the same time giving your predictions and insight.

Poor Yarnc. =(
God Bless
AlwaysGG
Profile Joined March 2009
Taiwan952 Posts
June 24 2009 04:45 GMT
#3
go (Z)EffOrt and (T)Hwasin
Trust 神教教主 FlaSh | Believe 火心 EffOrt
FranzF1
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Chile1710 Posts
June 24 2009 04:55 GMT
#4
Thx for the writeup ... very good ;D


But I think that YarnC and Jaedong will be the ones who pass trough group A... and YarnC will be the bigest upset of this OSL. I think that Effort is going to fail under the pressure (I hope not).

Anyways it doesn't matter cause this is the BackHo's OSL
Member #99999^99 of the fanclub of Grape, Reality and TurN
qrs
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States3637 Posts
June 24 2009 04:56 GMT
#5
I also liked the chutes and ladders, very cute.

But even if by some miracle Effort gets through and Jaedong doesn't, I would not be ready to suddenly proclaim Effort the world's best Zerg. You're always so trigger-happy, JWD.
'As per the American Heart Association, the beat of the Bee Gees song "Stayin' Alive" provides an ideal rhythm in terms of beats per minute to use for hands-only CPR. One can also hum Queen's "Another One Bites The Dust".' —Wikipedia
Phelix
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
1931 Posts
June 24 2009 04:57 GMT
#6
Awesome writeup JWD! Love the Chutes and Ladders references.

Canata will make out of his group with no fanfare.

Ko In Kyu Fighting!
Venture Capital is better off spent on lottery tickets rather than investing in E-Sports; you'll get a far better return. The difference is simple: Koreans are tryharding at the game, foreigners are tryharding in real-life.
chongu
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Malaysia2585 Posts
June 24 2009 05:00 GMT
#7
nice write-up, JWD. i look forward to more of your reports. CJ fighting
SC2 is to BW, what coke is to wine.
DoX.)
Profile Joined December 2008
Singapore6164 Posts
June 24 2009 05:02 GMT
#8
Hwasin FIGHTING
MutaDoom
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Canada1163 Posts
June 24 2009 05:18 GMT
#9
On June 24 2009 13:38 Roffles wrote:
That was one fucking kickass writeup. Especially like the part with the chutes and ladders.

But overall as a whole your writeup was really nice. It seemed to take into consideration most underlying things within each group, covering many possibilities while at the same time giving your predictions and insight.

Poor Yarnc is going to make it out of that group!. =(


Fixed?
skronch
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States2717 Posts
June 24 2009 05:20 GMT
#10
LOL the chutes and ladders thing is hilarious. I just made it the background on my work computer
Geo.Rion
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
7377 Posts
June 24 2009 05:26 GMT
#11
On June 19 2009 20:36 Fredflintstone wrote:
[image loading]

"Protoss is a joke" Liquid`Jinro Okt.1. 2011
OmgIRok
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Taiwan2699 Posts
June 24 2009 05:32 GMT
#12
daaaammnn this writeup is so convincing. I like how you linked your own post of Canata's TvT stats. That was interesting.

Great write-up as always!
[that bisu picture is pretty scary]
"Wanna join my [combo] clan?" "We play turret d competitively"
JitNik
Profile Joined May 2009
Russian Federation134 Posts
June 24 2009 05:32 GMT
#13
effort vs jaedong today... i PRAY EFFORT WINS!

+ Show Spoiler +
an atheist praying!
Sigh
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada2433 Posts
June 24 2009 05:35 GMT
#14
On June 24 2009 14:26 Geo.Rion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 19 2009 20:36 Fredflintstone wrote:
[image loading]



ROFL.
I expect some close matches in group A, hopefully Flash can advance
NaDa/Flash/Thorzain Fan
ghostWriter
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3302 Posts
June 24 2009 05:36 GMT
#15
Group A really feels like a waste. It's always a finals before the finals and it seems like it's never the two best players that make it to the end. Jaedong, Flash and Effort are so closely matched that it's hard to tell who is going to make it out. I would have thought Effort and Jaedong until Effort lost to Iron -_-

Also, it feels like you aren't giving Canata enough credit. He has been winning lately and playing decently in all three matchups. I feel like he will make it to the next round easily.
Sullifam
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
June 24 2009 05:37 GMT
#16
Leta is overrated, I dont remember the last game he won where he didn't cheese. I expect Canata to roll him (as well as kwanro, maybe by.hero). Group D is by far the closest group of the lot imo. Jaedong will lose in Group A, he carries the burden of the winners curse. EffOrt will win the group 3-0 with Flash coming in second. go.go is going to cheese Bisu and everyone's going to be like "Bisu -.-!!!"
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
d(O.o)a
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Canada5066 Posts
June 24 2009 05:41 GMT
#17
HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA I love that pic it looks like flash is doing tae-kwon-do. The writeup was excellent and that bisu/gogo picture is also hilarious. Looking forward to bisu vs. hwasin
Hi.
errol1001
Profile Joined April 2008
454 Posts
June 24 2009 05:52 GMT
#18
What a wonderful picture to end that off with. Bravo.

Maybe Leta is overrated, and putting him as anti is slaughtering my points, but Kwanro? .. At least Leta has performed solidly against some actually good zergs. By the way, is wraith play against zerg cheese?
Husky
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3362 Posts
June 24 2009 05:56 GMT
#19
That fat baby grosses me out every time
Commentaries: youtube.com/HuskyStarcraft
AlTheCake
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Canada1071 Posts
June 24 2009 06:05 GMT
#20
Jaedong hwaiting!
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