EPTGreat stuff. I won't be playing the Beta, so I hope a lot of you guys stream games and wright articles for my enjoyment. GL HF
Time for Speculation: SC2 Beta Invites - Page 6
| Forum Index > News |
|
JohnBall
Brazil1272 Posts
Great stuff. I won't be playing the Beta, so I hope a lot of you guys stream games and wright articles for my enjoyment. GL HF | ||
|
Pufftrees
2449 Posts
| ||
Heyoka
Katowice25012 Posts
I ran 10000 monte carlo simulations of your current data against a quadratic spline function that factors in weather, california disasters rates, and the redundant gene pool of blizzard employees (this allows for us to appropriately weigh health). Using this method I was able to narrow down your number into a much shorter interval: ![[image loading]](http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/7572/betam.png) This is zoomed in to the day that you had previously predicted, with visual identifiers added to where the upper and lower boundaries came on my trial runs. We can see here that the most likely time is early afternoon, pacific standard time. Obviously running a large simulation would be ideal, but the next one million results are unlikely to change our graph by more than a hundredth of a percent. I hope this helps and I am more than willing to discuss ideas in the future! | ||
|
CongoJack
Canada417 Posts
| ||
|
Archerofaiur
United States4101 Posts
On June 10 2009 08:31 heyoka wrote: Hi, I think you might be able to refine your method and come up with a more accurate number by using more graphs, charts, science, and math. Your confidence interval is still relatively high here (lasting through approximately 360 degrees of Earth's spin). I ran 10000 monte carlo simulations of your current data against a quadratic spline function that factors in weather, california disasters rates, and the redundant gene pool of blizzard employees (this allows for us to appropriately weigh health). Using this method I was able to narrow down your number into a much shorter interval: This is zoomed in to the day that you had previously predicted, with visual identifiers added to where the upper and lower boundaries came on my trial runs. We can see here that the most likely time is early afternoon, pacific standard time. Obviously running a large simulation would be ideal, but the next one million results are unlikely to change our graph by more than a hundredth of a percent. I hope this helps and I am more than willing to discuss ideas in the future! By God, this man wields the black magic as well! From whench did this "Psionce" come from? Also can we harnass its great power to foretell next weeks new Nomad name? | ||
|
ninjafetus
United States231 Posts
| ||
|
quaLLe
Germany11 Posts
| ||
|
CharlieMurphy
United States22895 Posts
| ||
|
Pokebunny
United States10654 Posts
I think Kennigit should found a college dedicated to E-Sports Math (tm). | ||
|
konadora
Singapore66071 Posts
| ||
520
United States2822 Posts
The estimated release date of Starcraft 2, thus, clearly is always going to be one month, one day and one year more than the current date. | ||
|
konadora
Singapore66071 Posts
 | ||
|
Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On June 10 2009 09:25 CharlieMurphy wrote: I feel lied to, and mislead. this. :p | ||
IntoTheWow
is awesome32269 Posts
| ||
|
dmetheny
United States146 Posts
hahahahahahaha | ||
|
Gokey
United States2722 Posts
On June 10 2009 08:31 heyoka wrote: Hi, I think you might be able to refine your method and come up with a more accurate number by using more graphs, charts, science, and math. Your confidence interval is still relatively high here (lasting through approximately 360 degrees of Earth's spin). I ran 10000 monte carlo simulations of your current data against a quadratic spline function that factors in weather, california disasters rates, and the redundant gene pool of blizzard employees (this allows for us to appropriately weigh health). Using this method I was able to narrow down your number into a much shorter interval: This is zoomed in to the day that you had previously predicted, with visual identifiers added to where the upper and lower boundaries came on my trial runs. We can see here that the most likely time is early afternoon, pacific standard time. Obviously running a large simulation would be ideal, but the next one million results are unlikely to change our graph by more than a hundredth of a percent. I hope this helps and I am more than willing to discuss ideas in the future! The psiunsth is impeccable... You sir, are a prince amongst men, a bright torch of enlightened thought in the dark sea of common ignorance. | ||
|
danieldrsa
Brazil522 Posts
They included korean in their list or only foreign? If no, do you know if they plan to give some to koreans pros/coach ? | ||
|
FaZ-
United States186 Posts
"Inability to predict foreigners in TvT." | ||
|
Tom Phoenix
1114 Posts
On June 10 2009 11:07 danieldrsa wrote: Hey Esports, They included korean in their list or only foreign? If no, do you know if they plan to give some to koreans pros/coach ? To be honest, I think it is more likely they will invite retired professionals/coaches rather then active ones. Considering the demands of the competitive scene, I seriously doubt the teams will allow their players any time to participate in the beta. | ||
|
danieldrsa
Brazil522 Posts
On June 10 2009 11:26 Tom Phoenix wrote: To be honest, I think it is more likely they will invite retired professionals/coaches rather then active ones. Considering the demands of the competitive scene, I seriously doubt the teams will allow their players any time to participate in the beta. you´re right, but the first question endures there are only foreign in the list? | ||
| ||
