EPT
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The second week is over for our sixteen heroes, or villains if that's how you see some of them. Destiny has been assured for no one. For some, their fate lies within their own hands. But for others fate will be determined by the results of others in the group, never a desirable or comfortable situation. Take a look at how the second weeks’ games played out and some predictions for the final week of group play.
Day 3 Recap
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
July had his back against the wall, with a loss last week, and it was clear that he came to win. He put the pressure on Bisu early with a 9 pool before his Overlord. Bisu went with a predictable FE. July kept the pressure on Bisu, keeping his own bases from harm. Waves of attacks came in and were defended by the Protoss player, but the third wave was the one that broke the line. When more units kept pouring in Bisu could not defend against it all and was forced into concession as the plowed their way into his main.
A play from July I really liked in this game was his morphing of two Lurkers on Bisu’s ramp to ensure that he would be able to remove the Nexus at his natural without further distraction.
July > Bisu
A play from July I really liked in this game was his morphing of two Lurkers on Bisu’s ramp to ensure that he would be able to remove the Nexus at his natural without further distraction.
July > Bisu
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
Another Zerg player in essentially what was a must win situation. GGplay went gas first for a very fast Lair, putting it up very shortly after the completion of his spawning pool. Light scouted this and saw an opportunity to be aggressive and take out GGplay before his tech could come into play. Some sloppy micro on a group of Marines and Medics caused Light to be unable to make the sunken break before some very fast lurkers arrived and were able to hold off the initial assault.
The aggressive counter by Light forced him to commit to one base as now he had to keep pumping unit to defend after his unsuccessful attack. GGplay, now ahead in both tech and units pressed his advantage to a victory. After Light’s failed break, the result was inevitable. One of Light’s biggest strengths is his multitasking ability in the late game; GGplay eliminated that aspect of the game when Light was forced to keep to one base.
GGPlay > Light
The aggressive counter by Light forced him to commit to one base as now he had to keep pumping unit to defend after his unsuccessful attack. GGplay, now ahead in both tech and units pressed his advantage to a victory. After Light’s failed break, the result was inevitable. One of Light’s biggest strengths is his multitasking ability in the late game; GGplay eliminated that aspect of the game when Light was forced to keep to one base.
GGPlay > Light
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
Midas was cheesed in the previous week and he made sure that it wasn’t going to happen again this week. Luxury tries the first real bust with some quick Lurkers, but Midas is ready with some bunkers and tanks, Losing very little as he holds off the attack and putting himself into the advantage as Luxury’s army is decimated. After Luxury’s failed attack Midas sends in the ball of death, and with another victorious skirmish, Luxury types out.
Midas > Luxury
Midas > Luxury
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
Both of these players already have a win, so a second one here would help secure advancement. Fantasy builds two Barracks in the middle near Stork’s section of the map. Stork’s scout realizes that something tricky is going on due to the emptiness of Fantasy’s main. He makes a pylon in his area to spot for incoming threats. It sees the floating Barracks coming his way. The element of surprise is lost. Fantasy pulls a bunch of SCV and tries to build a bunker at the bottom of Stork’s ramp. It fails and he is too far behind for winning to be conceivable.
Stork > Fantasy
Stork > Fantasy
Day 4 Recap
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Much cheeses, which Flash discovers partially given away by the direction his scouting probe game in, but also some decent game and timing sense by Flash. That fails, but later Much tries going for a proxy Robo, once again discovered by Flash. Flash is further ahead and now prepared. Much chooses for Carriers next, but is just too far behind already to make it work as Flash comes in and just wins.
Flash > Much
Flash > Much
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
Best looking for his second win and Rock looking for his first. Best already has observers and sees Rock's first impending attack. A Reaver arrives in time to hold off Rock’s invasion. Rock takes out the Reaver, but loses his entire army in the process. Best begins cleaning up when his next two Reavers and a Shuttle arrive. Best’s play isn’t perfect, but with a considerable lead already, it’s plenty good enough to defeat Rock.
Best > Rock
Best > Rock
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
The Zerg needs a win to keep his Royal Road hopes alive. TheZerg goes with a two hatch Lurker build, which looks to be the standard on this new map for ZvT. When the Lurkers come in to break down the door, a single Bunker and no Tanks is not enough to keep them from barging in. As Mind’s only defenses are wiped out, he sees that the game is over and accepts defeat.
TheZerg > Mind
TheZerg > Mind
+ Show Spoiler [Game Comments] +
Both of these players have a loss, so a win here is necessary for controlling their own fates. Sea makes use of Vulture drops/raids, with high amounts of success. BackHo is less successful with his Reaver harassment. Sea successes keep his unit count well above BackHo’s and the advantage is held throughout until Sea is able to finish off BackHo and keep his own OSL hopes from flat lining.
Sea > BackHo
Sea > BackHo
Week 3 Predictions
For Much this is a must win situation, and that is only so that he can hope for Tiebreakers, which would still be excruciatingly difficult for him to get out of. July needs the win in order to most likely advance to the next round. There has yet to be a ZvP on this map, but I don’t know that it will make too much of a difference here. July is an absolute monster against Protoss and although Much’s PvZ isn’t bad, I don’t see it as being comparable to July’s. It’s a safe bet that July will win this game.
This is also the first TvP played on this map. For Flash, it’s simply a win and in situation, and maybe would even get in with a loss depending on the previous game’s result. Bisu needs the win here. If he wins, he secures himself in a tiebreaker at the very least and against two opponents who he has a decent shot at defeating. A loss could put him into tiebreakers as well, but I don’t like his chances as well in those tiebreakers.
Bisu has to have the mentality that he is going to take this game from Flash. He is going to have to pull out something a little extra special. Flash, on the other hand, has played extremely well recently as you all should know. After taking down Much, who has superior PvT when compared to Bisu, Flash should have little trouble taking down Bisu in what is arguably the Protoss player’s worst matchup. Flash should be a pretty straightforward pick here.
GGPlay wants revenge. And on a map that has yet to see a Protoss player victorious over a Zerg player, I don’t see Rock as being the first player to do so. Rock is on his way to going 0-3. GGPlay needs to win and hope that Light loses as I would say he is the least likely to advance between tiebreakers of himself, Best and Light. A loss would certainly not help his chances any. These are probably the two current weakest player of their group and GGPlay is playing better than Rock, so I’d give him the nod in taking this game.
 |  |  |
 Light | Return of the King |  BeSt |
| 25 - 25 | 7-6 | 15 - 12 |
If Best wins, it guarantees him a spot. Light’s victory nearly could assure him of the same. Statistics of the map make it seem balanced, but I’m still convinced that it favors Terran a bit. Many of the Protoss victories have been by considerably superior players. Though Best is playing very well, Light’s TvP has been looking very good lately. He already has two victories over Protoss on this map over decent Protoss players, one win over Violet and another over JangBi. This matchup should be close, but the slight favoring of map coupled with Light’s previous results here lean me toward picking Light as the likely winner here.
For both of these players it’s a win and advance situation. No strings attached. The winner is assured a spot in the next round, and the loser goes home. Plasma definitely seems to favor the Terran players in this matchup, or rather, has the Zerg players in poor favor. I don’t think too much of that should be taken into consideration though. I expect luxury to take the victory here. Mind has been looking shaky in a lot of his recent TvZ games and Luxury is a lot better than some of the more recent opponents that Mind has lost to. Luxury is my pick for this game.
These two are in the same win and in or lose and out situation as the other pair in this group. Again, Terran has to be favored here, but consider that the only ZvT win on this map was from TheZerg against Hwasin, a recognized Zerg killer. Perhaps TheZerg knows something others don’t and will be able to pull out a victory here. My gut says no though. Midas is back, and after a fairly convincing defeat of Luxury this week, I think he looks to be advancing. TheZerg won’t be able to cheese him on this map, which should allow Midas to exercise his power. It’s sad to see a potential Royal Roader fall out so early, but it seems unlikely that Midas will lose this game.
Sea and Stork have a bit of a history, though it’s a history that is heavily leaning in Stork’s favor. Time and time again, Stork has taken out the young Sea. Only twice has Sea ever defeated Stork, one of them coming from the recent Proleague All Star match. Was that win a fluke because of a relaxed special event, or has Sea stumbled upon the ability to finally take down his nemesis? Stork seems as strong as ever though, and sitting at 2-0 in his group the win here has him advancing for sure. Sea needs the win to keep his chances alive, and that win would go a long way toward doing so. History seems more likely to repeat itself though and Stork is the favorite here.
 |  |  |
| fantasy | Chupung-Ryeong | BackHo |
| 9 - 7 | 1-0 | 9 - 6 |
Fantasy seems good. BackHo seems lucky. He wins games that it seems like he should not win. He is 0-2 though, so his chances of advancing are slim to none (and I’m really leaning toward none). Fantasy on the other hand needs the win here to keep advancement hopes alive. He has gotten to a couple leagues, but this may be his first real opportunity to take that somewhere and begin to make a name for himself. Looking at both skill levels and at recent results, Fantasy comes out ahead and has to be the pick here for a win.
Very few players have their outcomes completely in their own hands. The few that do are lucky, and the ones that don’t have to hope that the other games go their way and/or that tiebreakers go well for them. No one is out yet, but there are players who definitely look like they are. In the next week we will see if anyone comes to surprise and whether or not players will have to fight on though tiebreakers. Every game still has something riding on it as everyone looks to maximize their own chances of advancing. Don’t miss any of the excitement as every player will be striving to bring their best game to the stage for the upcoming week!
Plexa will be back next week with a recap and a look forward into either the tiebreakers or the single elimination rounds of what has started off as an exciting and high powered OSL!
-semioldguy
