EPTLOL this is stupid, its not like theres a mafia bandwagon going now.
[GG] Red Army Mafia - Page 9
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
LOL this is stupid, its not like theres a mafia bandwagon going now. | ||
|
Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On July 29 2009 20:17 Malongo wrote: LOL this is stupid, its not like theres a mafia bandwagon going now. Of course, but why vote for someone with no platform =S | ||
|
Sinensis
United States2513 Posts
I'm not voting for MountainDew. His entire campaign could have been summed up in three words: "organize" and "kill inactives." In fact, he used the words "inactive" and "organize" six times each in eight short, fluffy, paragraphs. No thank you. Coltrane isn't going to get my vote either until phrases like "I have a really good strategy, i will post it and after this i will be dead tomorrow unless i am office and have bodyguards." and "i am willing to use you all" start popping up a LOT less, though I do appreciate his more calculated and statistical analysis of the Ukrainian threat. I've still got some profiles to sift through before I can offer any other perspective. | ||
|
Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
Also, Ace is the only person making sense here, it's really good to have him in this game. I'm not sure if I'd elect him as the officer yet, but he seems like the best candidate. I really don't think he's mafia at this point. | ||
|
iLoveKT
Philippines3615 Posts
lol feels weird referring to town as Russia and mafia as Ukrainians. | ||
|
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
Ukranians dont know each other. So their DT are independent. we use THIS FORMULA (check my maths if you want): All of we are m=53 (of course the ukranian doesnt check himself) mafia are n and this represent how many different dets they could get. ![[image loading]](http://personal5.iddeo.es/ztt/Tem/F4_Image7.gif) And this one: Just townies are m (thats 54-mafias) mafia are n and this represent how many worst cases (all dt goes to different townies) ![[image loading]](http://personal5.iddeo.es/ztt/Tem/F4_Image6.gif) so, first i have: (in scientific notation) mafia::how many groups::how many worst cases. 1::53::52 2::1431::1275 3::26235::19600 4::367290::211876 5::4.18711e+06::1.7123e+06 6::4.04754e+07::1.07376e+07 7::3.41149e+08::5.35247e+07 8::2.55862e+09::2.15553e+08 9::1.73418e+10::7.08931e+08 10::1.07519e+11::1.91733e+09 11::6.1579e+11::4.28056e+09 12::3.28421e+12::7.89865e+09 13::1.64211e+13::1.20332e+10 14:: 7.74136e+13::1.50845e+10 15::3.45781e+14::1.54713e+10 16::1.46957e+15::1.28758e+10 17::5.96472e+15::8.5975e+09 18::2.31961e+16::4.53757e+09 19::8.66803e+16::1.85597e+09 20::3.12049e+17::5.73166e+08 21::1.08474e+18::1.29024e+08 22::3.64868e+18::2.01601e+07 23::1.18979e+19::2.0358e+06 24::3.76766e+19::118755 25::1.16044e+20::3276 26::3.48131e+20::27 The second column growths MUCH FASTER than the third, but that the difference is huge when it comes to more than 6 DTS, so, lets say mafia are 6, pretty sure they are more, they technically kill every two days, so they mostly will have a potential KP of 6, 1/9 of townies, in the time townies get 2 lynch to put on the 6 mafias. Thats not balanced, give caller some credit... with 9 it has a better balance, but if there are 12 people appearing as ukranians we balance this to our favor. There is NOTHING random here, is statistically correct. Like poker. While in 9 they have 1 of 20 to make an allkill in 12 they only have 1 of 400. And even if they get the allkill the killing power will be 9 anyway with 3 agents. And in much cases, when 11 of them succed on DT townies some of them will not kill because they are townies aswell. Again, if we have 4 DT we are even better. Having our DTs as ukranians always benefits us. They even difficult the ukranians joining toghether. I have tested many cases, like when game advances we will notice less benefits on this due to the targets will reduce for them to DT So think again, we surely have less DT than them, is easyer for them hunt down agents, and yes, they are our key, so they need to disguise as ukranians, is the only way they will be safe, they will lower KP, and even may infiltrate ukranians So, you know now, encourage our agents to infiltrate ukranian scum and our mother russia will be stronger. edit: didnt knew that : 7 was  so splitted it. And said 1 of 40, is clearly 1 of 400. | ||
|
Sinensis
United States2513 Posts
On July 29 2009 21:47 iLoveKT wrote: Isnt inactivity and organization good enough points in a candidate's platform? It has already been proven that inactives kills the town (in this case Mother Russia) because the Ukrainians can just hide amongst them and that all the town needs to do is organize with the help of a leader to sort out who is Ukrainian or not. How to organize given the circumstances is the real problem. What else do you want to see in his platform? Only problem I have with MountainDew is that he has no track records coz I think this is his first game here on TL but as I have said, I'm cool with new people given a chance at leadership. (MountainDew, are you really new or thats just a smurf account or a new account or something?) lol feels weird referring to town as Russia and mafia as Ukrainians. I didn't say inactivity and organization weren't good points, I did however say that it took three words to say, not 565. | ||
|
LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On July 29 2009 14:21 MountainDew wrote: I would like to announce my campaign for office! First off, my plan will be to lynch an inactive or someone who has posted but not contributed. With 54 people it is safe to assume the mafia is going to be hiding among the guarenteed list of inactives. This is especially true because the mafia do not know the other mafia, and thus they will not have any organized plans. It is going to be important to weed out the mafia from the inactive list. As an elected official I will promise to do my best to keep the town organized. Since mafia do not know each other, the way for the town to win is to work as a team, since we have this advantage against the mafia, at least for now. By keeping the town organized, we will be able to avoid a town defeat. The main goal I want to accomplish is to make the mafia afraid of being inactive. If the town is mindlessly killing each other, the mafia will have an easy win as they sit back and watch us die. It is my hope to prevent all this from happening. Now I understand that nobody here has played mafia with me before, at least to the best of my knowledge. In order to familiarize myself with the town I have read nearly all the mafia games on this forum. By understanding how everyone here plays I will be able to better lead the town to victory. Many of you may be tempted to not vote for me since there are "vets" playing in this game, and voting for a vet would seem like a safer play than voting for me. However I urge you all to think for yourself and not vote for someone because they merely claim they are experienced or "I'm good at mafia pick me!" in the words of L. It is true that L is a very good player, so he must be considered as well, once he makes his actual petition. Looking over all the past mafia games, I could not help but be amazed at all the elected officials screwing the town over, when the official was indeed a townsperson. In lots of games, these "veteran players" could not keep the town organized and would ultimately end up getting lynched unneccesarily, doing nothing to help the town and staying silent, or shamefully getting themselves mod killed because they couldn't handle the game. I will do everything I can to keep the town organized and will not succumb to one of these fates. Thus I urge you all to think for yourselves and not vote for someone based on their "vet" status or their experience. I plan to weed the mafia out of the inactives by keeping information open and the town organized. I consider myself to be more adept to behavioral analysis than clue analysis, especially based on my thoughts when reading the previous games. However all ideas need consideration; Falcynn's topic is a good start for a town victory. I promise to be active throughout the game, as being inactive, especially as an official, will not benefit the town. I also urge everyone else to be active as well, as the more information the town has the better we can kill the mafia. That all being said, vote for me. I will keep the town organized to weed out the mafia. 1.) Qatol? 2.) This is the most redundant post I've read so far in this thread. Are you making an effort to make it long to garner as much attention? Everything you said in that post could have been deleted as it's pretty much implied. I'll edit this post as I continue reading. EDIT #1: On July 29 2009 16:15 MountainDew wrote: Because mafia are not a team for now, it will take the town longer to figure them out. In other mafia games voting patterns could quickly lead to a mafia's defeat. This game the town does not have that information. Depending on how many DT's there are, it might take us a while to figure them all out. On July 29 2009 16:24 MountainDew wrote: If your second paragraph here was in response to me, I said voting patterns, not vote checks. Sometimes mafia can get pinned down because they pile on votes on one person to save one of their own. Since mafia does not know each other that won't ever be happening. Another consequence of this is that bandwagoning is going to happen a lot, and there's not much we can do about it. I want to say that it is quite possible first few days we keep lynching greens because there won't be much debate about it. A bandwagon vote won't help us at all. Actually, I think you're wrong about the voting patterns. We could get a lot of information from them even if the mafia does not know each other . At least, I have some strategy for interpretting what I see in the other thread. On July 29 2009 21:32 Sinensis wrote: I'm new to TL.net mafia, so if you're looking for some objectivity my posts might be relevant to you. I'm not voting for MountainDew. His entire campaign could have been summed up in three words: "organize" and "kill inactives." In fact, he used the words "inactive" and "organize" six times each in eight short, fluffy, paragraphs. No thank you. Coltrane isn't going to get my vote either until phrases like "I have a really good strategy, i will post it and after this i will be dead tomorrow unless i am office and have bodyguards." and "i am willing to use you all" start popping up a LOT less, though I do appreciate his more calculated and statistical analysis of the Ukrainian threat. I've still got some profiles to sift through before I can offer any other perspective. Finally, somebody knows how to read. + Show Spoiler + On July 29 2009 22:09 coltrane wrote: Ok, i wrote my numbers and got this: Ukranians dont know each other. So their DT are independent. we use THIS FORMULA (check my maths if you want): All of we are m=53 (of course the ukranian doesnt check himself) mafia are n and this represent how many different dets they could get. And this one: Just townies are m (thats 54-mafias) mafia are n and this represent how many worst cases (all dt goes to different townies) so, first i have: (in scientific notation) mafia::how many groups::how many worst cases. 1::53::52 2::1431::1275 3::26235::19600 4::367290::211876 5::4.18711e+06::1.7123e+06 6::4.04754e+07::1.07376e+07 7::3.41149e+08::5.35247e+07 8::2.55862e+09::2.15553e+08 9::1.73418e+10::7.08931e+08 10::1.07519e+11::1.91733e+09 11::6.1579e+11::4.28056e+09 12::3.28421e+12::7.89865e+09 13::1.64211e+13::1.20332e+10 14:: 7.74136e+13::1.50845e+10 15::3.45781e+14::1.54713e+10 16::1.46957e+15::1.28758e+10 17::5.96472e+15::8.5975e+09 18::2.31961e+16::4.53757e+09 19::8.66803e+16::1.85597e+09 20::3.12049e+17::5.73166e+08 21::1.08474e+18::1.29024e+08 22::3.64868e+18::2.01601e+07 23::1.18979e+19::2.0358e+06 24::3.76766e+19::118755 25::1.16044e+20::3276 26::3.48131e+20::27 The second column growths MUCH FASTER than the third, but that the difference is huge when it comes to more than 6 DTS, so, lets say mafia are 6, pretty sure they are more, they technically kill every two days, so they mostly will have a potential KP of 6, 1/9 of townies, in the time townies get 2 lynch to put on the 6 mafias. Thats not balanced, give caller some credit... with 9 it has a better balance, but if there are 12 people appearing as ukranians we balance this to our favor. There is NOTHING random here, is statistically correct. Like poker. While in 9 they have 1 of 20 to make an allkill in 12 they only have 1 of 400. And even if they get the allkill the killing power will be 9 anyway with 3 agents. And in much cases, when 11 of them succed on DT townies some of them will not kill because they are townies aswell. Again, if we have 4 DT we are even better. Having our DTs as ukranians always benefits us. They even difficult the ukranians joining toghether. I have tested many cases, like when game advances we will notice less benefits on this due to the targets will reduce for them to DT So think again, we surely have less DT than them, is easyer for them hunt down agents, and yes, they are our key, so they need to disguise as ukranians, is the only way they will be safe, they will lower KP, and even may infiltrate ukranians So, you know now, encourage our agents to infiltrate ukranian scum and our mother russia will be stronger. edit: didnt knew that : 7 was so splitted it. And said 1 of 40, is clearly 1 of 400.PM'd. Please respond. | ||
Ver
United States2186 Posts
But there's no way that our slippery beverage boy is some random new guy. Either he's some incompetent newbie smurf or he's mafia. | ||
|
Caller
Poland8075 Posts
| ||
|
Scaramanga
Australia8093 Posts
i am going to say this though, if you are inactive or say inactives are fine then you are mafia or that much of a useless townie that killing you dosen't do any harm In pyrrs game there was like 10 inactives so mafia did fuck all but chill and watch town kill themself, thats not gonna happen this game im voting ace btw | ||
|
Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On July 29 2009 22:44 Caller wrote: it has come to my attention that there is some serious cheating going on. I will likely have to replace any affected roles, and so I ask if anybody would be willing to sub in for these roles (not existing players, lol) Let us know the names of all the cheaters =) Hmmm and it might actually this time around be beneficial for some townies to act like they were mafia. What an interesting game. | ||
|
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
No problem! Its quite simple, but the numbers are really big. It is called combinatory. You want to know how many posible cases are from something to happen... lets say I have 1 dice, that is the first collum I have 6 posible results, thats the second row. I have 5 usefull values, thats the third (just 5 others are no mafia) So, when i have 2 dices in first collumn i have many posible rolls, 21 posible, some of them are the same. Finally i will only have 6 couples among those 2 not mafia. With these small numbers it closes sooner, as the inflexion point is when mafia is 1/4 of town. Then the third collumn start to shrink again. what i did was consider a 53 sided dice to 54 players, because you wont rolecheck on yourself. And did it from 1 dice to 26, because in 27 you cant have a clean DT for ukranians, they would always detect other ukranian, exept in one only case. as i used c++ to computate it the numbers are in scientific notation, so 6.92568e+10 is meaning 70KKK and 4.90131e+6 is meaning 50KK | ||
|
coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 29 2009 23:13 Shikyo wrote: Let us know the names of all the cheaters =) Hmmm and it might actually this time around be beneficial for some townies to act like they were mafia. What an interesting game. i think you are right. who is cheating? and how could you cheat? | ||
|
StorrZerg
United States13921 Posts
On July 29 2009 22:53 Scaramanga wrote: Hello people i am going to say this though, if you are inactive or say inactives are fine then you are mafia or that much of a useless townie that killing you dosen't do any harm In pyrrs game there was like 10 inactives so mafia did fuck all but chill and watch town kill themself, thats not gonna happen this game im voting ace btw inactives die if they dont vote | ||
|
Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On July 29 2009 23:20 coltrane wrote: I sended something like this to LucasWooj, but i corrected something i noticed when i copied it here. No problem! Its quite simple, but the numbers are really big. It is called combinatory. You want to know how many posible cases are from something to happen... lets say I have 1 dice, that is the first collum I have 6 posible results, thats the second row. I have 5 usefull values, thats the third (just 5 others are no mafia) So, when i have 2 dices in first collumn i have many posible rolls, 21 posible, some of them are the same. Finally i will only have 6 couples among those 2 not mafia. With these small numbers it closes sooner, as the inflexion point is when mafia is 1/4 of town. Then the third collumn start to shrink again. what i did was consider a 53 sided dice to 54 players, because you wont rolecheck on yourself. And did it from 1 dice to 26, because in 27 you cant have a clean DT for ukranians, they would always detect other ukranian, exept in one only case. as i used c++ to computate it the numbers are in scientific notation, so 6.92568e+10 is meaning 70KKK and 4.90131e+6 is meaning 50KK What on earth do those numbers mean anyway? Seems like pointless glibberish to me. Also, have you possibly thought that not everyone plays this game with a set of dices? Maybe they, like, see who they think is mafia and check them, or check people who they think are blue(or red in this game, w/e)? In that case your numbers might become useless, da. Everyone, keep in mind who you think seem like terrible choices for officers and also keep note of who are voting for them. Even though mafia doesn't know who each other are, they will most likely vote for the worst possible electee for town. Use your own judgement. People who abstain are suspicious as well, especially if they don't ever switch vote for anyone. | ||
|
chaoser
United States5541 Posts
| ||
|
Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
and there is a certain value to having a correct statistical interpretation of the game | ||
|
Shikyo
Finland33997 Posts
On July 29 2009 23:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Shikyo his explanation is a little hard to understand but I believe the math behind it makes sense and there is a certain value to having a correct statistical interpretation of the game 30 people 5 mafia 60 people 10 mafia = this game has 8-10. O_o | ||
|
Railxp
Hong Kong1313 Posts
(i didnt want to post in the other thread and mess up your consecutive posts) | ||
| ||
