EPT[GG] Red Army Mafia - Page 17
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On July 30 2009 09:29 Ace wrote: 26 hours? Are the days seriously going to be 48 hours? :/ day 1 is | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
We are 54, how many veterans we have? i would say around 5. If we have 5 NKVD that make 10 of 54 marked as veteran. thats like 3 times they dt a townie, 2 times they dt a rebbel or a dt. That clearly lower the KP in about the same rate than if all NKVD put as vet but it doesnt keep the mafia to find each other. By the other hand the NKVD will be safe for a while, until 2 mafia join up, and then if any one of them made a vet RC before they will join and kill him. That will happen in about 3-4 days, the same rate than if they claim to be rebels. But this could lower the kp more... unless if they know NKVD are showing to be veterans they will hit them 2 night in a row, and kill them anyway in 3-4 days without losing KP. If they show to be veteran we would show about 54 HP from town when it is actually 49 counting veteran as 2. Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have. | ||
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On July 30 2009 09:53 coltrane wrote: Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have. No one's arguing against that, the discussion is whether having NKVDs posing as rebels would have a net effect of lowering their KP or if that would simply create one huge political mess in the Town, making us turn on ourselves due to false accusations. On a tangentially related note: What's KP stand for? Killing Power of the mafia? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On July 30 2009 09:53 coltrane wrote: Let me do some maths again/// We are 54, how many veterans we have? i would say around 5. If we have 5 NKVD that make 10 of 54 marked as veteran. thats like 3 times they dt a townie, 2 times they dt a rebbel or a dt. That clearly lower the KP in about the same rate than if all NKVD put as vet but it doesnt keep the mafia to find each other. By the other hand the NKVD will be safe for a while, until 2 mafia join up, and then if any one of them made a vet RC before they will join and kill him. That will happen in about 3-4 days, the same rate than if they claim to be rebels. But this could lower the kp more... unless if they know NKVD are showing to be veterans they will hit them 2 night in a row, and kill them anyway in 3-4 days without losing KP. If they show to be veteran we would show about 54 HP from town when it is actually 49 counting veteran as 2. Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have. ![[image loading]](http://network1.1.googlepages.com/math.jpg) | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On July 30 2009 09:59 Zato-1 wrote: No one's arguing against that, the discussion is whether having NKVDs posing as rebels would have a net effect of lowering their KP or if that would simply create one huge political mess in the Town, making us turn on ourselves due to false accusations. On a tangentially related note: What's KP stand for? Killing Power of the mafia? yea KP. And you've kinda summed it up: no point in trying to lower Rebel KP if it would turn the place chaotic. | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
On July 30 2009 10:02 Ace wrote: yea KP. And you've kinda summed it up: no point in trying to lower Rebel KP if it would turn the place chaotic. Won't it get chaotic anyways when other roles find mafia? Zato/coltrane's argument is starting to make some sense to me.. what am I missing? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
On July 30 2009 10:22 person935 wrote: Won't it get chaotic anyways when other roles find mafia? Zato/coltrane's argument is starting to make some sense to me.. what am I missing? First, let me clarify my stance on the issue. I find Ace's proposition to be the safest because there's a lot of people in the town, and when something goes wrong trying to explain a system with a lot of moving parts to a lot of people will end up in a train wreck. Ace's system is simple. When a NKVD RCs someone and it comes up as rebel, he's a rebel, period. I'm still not certain as to whether the best way to convince the town of this is through persuasion and tying clues to that person, or by role calling as NKVD and pointing to the rebel. Either way, it should be a relatively clear-cut deal. I find coltrane's argument to be riskier, but in theory it could work out better. If each NKVD is acting as a landmine, waiting to be contacted by a rebel who RCs him, then in theory each NKVD agent will take one rebel down with him. If there are, say, 9 rebels and 5 agents, taking down that many rebels early on while they're still getting their network together could be crippling- this is the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is that through argumentation, sentiments and confusion, the plan goes wrong, no one knows for sure who's what, innocent people get lynched and the Town ends up divided, all the while the Mafia are getting organized and killing us off one by one. By speaking in favor of coltrane I'm playing a bit of devil's advocate- I'm still more convinced by Ace's proposition. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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person935
United States13 Posts
------ Some math that might be useless but I had fun: If we assume the NKVD are randomly checking people, the expected number of found mafia is a little under 3 (because 5 * (9/53 + 9/52 + 9/51)). I guess the expected number of found mafia for the "landmine" plan is 5? So for the "NKVD wait and use their 3 checks" plan to have an expected value of at least 5, they would each need to narrow down their list of suspects to 28 or fewer. ----- As long as all the NKVD use the landmine plan, I don't see why it would cause any more confusion, since they are the only people who can determine who is mafia (either by RC or having mafia contact them). In either case, the NKVD will have to come forward and say someone is mafia, right? Someone should figure out the probabilities for the mafia killing the NKVD in the "wait and check" plan, which would probably further push the numbers towards the landmine plan. This is my first game, so I don't know if it is reasonable to expect the NKVD to narrow down their suspect list to 28 (actually fewer, since I left out the probability that some of them will die) before making checks. What do y'all think? | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
(and upon further thought, the analysis is probably not very useful since we don't know any numbers for roles.. lol, oh well) | ||
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
On July 30 2009 10:49 Ace wrote: The reason I'd never go with a landmine plan is because if the Mafia are any bit decent at persuasion and have solid timing there is no way it will work. What if the mafia wait until night time to contact each other? Plan is done. so you trully believe you are a better player than any others? If they wait until night NKVD still have until day post to post/pm anything that knows until that time, we just need actives NKVD, but that stands for any plan. And it wont be good if a confirmed NKVD screams out to the thread the townies he checked, mafia dont know mafia, so NKVD will be adding KP to mafia if says something like "Ace is townie and L is mafia, i am going to die tonight." Maths are good for us, not only now, they will be good at each step of the game simply because we only know we are 54 of us and nothing else (52 after MountainDew/Foolishness episode? or they got replaced?) | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On July 30 2009 11:08 person935 wrote: Why would the plan be done if the mafia wait until nighttime to contact? ------ Because at night Rebels have to kill. If the Rebels approach each other and say prove it by killing X there isn't enough time to bullshit. | ||
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person935
United States13 Posts
On July 30 2009 11:18 Ace wrote: Because at night Rebels have to kill. If the Rebels approach each other and say prove it by killing X there isn't enough time to bullshit. Yeah, but the Rebels wouldn't know until morning, at which point the NKVDs would be telling the group that they found a mafia. Worst case, the mafia says he found a mafia, which means we would first kill the NKVD who was accused by the mafia, then kill the mafia (instead of killing the mafia first). | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
How can the NKVD tell anyone they found a mafia when they can't trust anyone else? The problem with killing either of them is that both of them really could be NKVD Agents posing as mafia or they can both simply claim it. I'd have no problem killing them both if it was an either/or situation but the fact that they can both be innocent is a major bump in the road. ETA: However, if the NKVD Agents could get a group of confirmed Townies under their wing to cover their ass by Day 3, then they can go undercover. That way once the NKVD agent steps out to the public we'd have a group of confirmed townies vouching for him and each other vs 1 mafia. That is a much better plan of action rather than having 1 NKVD Agent trying to go into the Mafia network and dying. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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coltrane
Chile988 Posts
And is much more likely that if two mafias found each other the 2 of them are mafia or 1 is mafia and the other is NKVD. Two NKVD could still wait for day post and count mafia KP, then they even could not be sure... anyway they wont roleclaim each other if both are NKVD, NKVD doesnt need to roleclaim to mafia, mafia needs to roleclaim to mafia. And they can go undercover and still make that support group, they should be detecting until they get 2 townies and save the third detect for later. | ||
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